09-15-06, 02:31 AM
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#1
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Pags' Plays
Hello board,
It's about time I get my shit together. I have some time to do a write-up, so I thought I would. Season has been pretty crazy the first couple of weeks, but I really feel like I'm starting to get a beat on things. Here are my plays for the week:
Nevada -3
Yeah, I know that Nevada's 2-0 and CSU is 0-2. If you look a little closer, however, you'll see that Nevada's strength of schedule is a lot better (Fresno St. and ASU) vs. CSU's schedule (Weber St. and Colorado-who's absolutely pitiful and we'll talk about more later). Nevada is a much different team at home, especially under head coach, Chris Ault (where they are 9-2 ATS over the last two years). Biggest thing I see in this game will be CSU's unbalanced offensive attack. If they get down early, they will have a difficult time fighting their way back. Expect Nevada QB Jeff Rowe to play much better than he did last week and RB Hubbard should be at full strength. QB Calib Haney is alright and has WR Johnny Walker and TE Dustin Osborne to throw to. That's about it, though, as stud RB Kyle Bell (who tore up Nevada for almost 200 yards last year) is out for the year with an ACL injury. Nevada should get their first win of the year here.
UL Monroe +24.5
You might say, "What the hell are you thinking pags?". I must admit that I didn't come upon this pick on my own. I have several people that I talked to this week and those close to the Alabama program have informed me something is horribly wrong with this year's team. 1st Team All-SEC RB Kenneth Darby is averaging 2.6 ypc. Their coach is a moron, and he got the job because of his dad. I don't think the fans will be happy with Shula much longer as the last of Dennis Franchione's recruits left his program last year. Monroe gave Kansas a helluva game last week, and I expect more of the same from them this week as they will continue to expose the Alabama secondary. Rarely do I ever bet a Sun Belt team, but this week I am.
SDSU +14.5
When I watched these guys play in week one, I wasn't that impressed with their first half performance. However, they really gave UTEP a scare once frosh QB Dugey came into the game. I also thought RB Hamilton caught some balls out of the backfield and showed the form that made him a freshman all-american two years ago. Chuck Long still has a long way to go, but he's definitely an upgrade from Craft. SDSU also has a pretty legit kicker and a front seven that should keep freshman RB P.J. Hill in check for Wisconsin. I respect what QB John Stocco brings to the table, he just doesn't have as many weapons as he did last year. Lastly, Wisconsin's D has given up a lot of yardage the last two weeks and I hope that SDSU will be able to capitalize with some points. Madison's a tough place to play, but SDSU has had success in the past on the road in Big 10 stadiums.
ASU -10
This is what I call my square pick of the week. I mean who the hell would lay ten on the road? I will in this game. The Colorado program is in shambles, and ASU is as talented as any team in the country on the offensive side of the ball. Their defense actually looked better last week vs. Nevada, better than it did the first week against NAU. QB Rudy Carpenter is extremely accurate and has the nation's best TE Zach Miller to throw to. Rudy Burgess catches the ball out of the backfield and Terry Richardson is as electrifying as any WR/ return man in the country. Colorado's best QB just left the program (Brian White) and they seriously are having troubles completing a forward pass. Unfortunately for them, I don't think Mason Crosby will play a huge role in this game as they will need TD's and not field goals to keep them in this one. Hawkins will right the ship, just not this week.
Hawaii -11
I've studied the Hawaii football program as much as any program in the country over the last five years. June Jones has brought in some damn good recruits and has even put together a descent (I stress descent) defense. QB Colt Brennan is as good as it gets in the QB position, in the country. As is WR Devon Bess. Brennan has 4 more legit targets to throw to and UNLV's DB Eric Wright is going to get tired chasing them all for 60 minutes. It's important to note that UNLV will be without starting QB Rocky Hinds (the USC transfer, and their leader) as he hurt his knee last week vs. ISU. UNLV does have a good defense and should keep it reasonably close for a half. Hawaii just has too much firepower for these guys that are in a bad spot after traveling home from Iowa and then getting on a plane three days later for Hawaii. June Jones (like Pete Carroll and Charlie Weis) always knows the number, it's important to remember that.
Navy +2.5
Bottom line, the wrong team is getting points in this one. Yeah, I know it's Stanford's home opener in their new stadium. I'm gonna tell you something, though, Stanford is a very, very bad football team. They got blown out at Oregon (never had a chance) and blew the lead last week to a less-than-stellar SJSU team. They lost senior WR Mark Bradford, leaving them with Evan Moore as their only real offensive threat. I like QB Trent Edwards, but he's only one man. Also think that coach Walt Harris is a little bit overrated. Navy, though, may have the best coach in the country that no one's ever heard about in Paul Johnson. This guy kicked butt at Georgia Southern and has had Navy in a bowl game the last three years (2 of which they've won). Really like Reggie Campbell to have a big day in this game. The key here will be getting consistent QB play, which was a problem last week vs. UMass. Navy's gonna run wild in this one and should hold Stanford off enough defensively to escape with a win.
Iowa St. +14
I know that Iowa St. hasn't covered the first two weeks, but that's been as a favorite. This team really only knows how to play close games. They don't blow out a lot of opponents, but don't get blown out a lot either. ISU has covered 7 of the last 8 games vs. Iowa (winning 6 of them straight up). Dan McCarney is also a great coach, doesn't get the pub that Ferentz gets, but may be a better gameday coach than Ferentz. QB Brent Meyer's completing over 60% of his passes and has RB Stevie Hicks who's a servicable back (about 4 ypc). WR Todd Blythe is their playmaker and Austin Flynn helps move the chains. What's even more scary is that ISU seems to have found a kicking game (which is something they've lacked the last two years). Drew Tate will play in this one, but is coming off being injured (ISU knocked him out of the game last year). ISU should be able to contain RB Albert Young and it will be up to Tate to find WR Grigsby and TE Chandler to beat ISU. I see a really competitive game in this one.
Remember guys, play responsibly. Scared money never wins, and always, always trust your instincts.
I wanted to this in week one, but these picks are dedicated to former Northwestern coach, Randy Walker. He was a great human being and a good football coach. RIP.
GLTA
pags11
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09-15-06, 03:14 AM
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#2
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I'm with you on that Iowa St. game bud.
This is not a game ISU will be playing up and down to there competition this week, and I think were going to see there true "A-game"
__________________
Enjoying retirement.
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09-15-06, 06:26 AM
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#3
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Just so you know, supposed to be real windy and good chance of rain in iowa city tomarrow. The under might be a good play too.
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09-15-06, 12:46 PM
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#4
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Nice wriyeups page, good luck this weekend.  |
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09-15-06, 02:56 PM
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#5
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Thanks for the awesome writeup, Pags. I really look forward to watching Navy roll with the ground game versus Stanford. Good luck!
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09-15-06, 05:37 PM
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#6
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I believe that Wisconsin handles SDSU, but if you can get 14 AND the hook, this is not a bad play.
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09-15-06, 05:39 PM
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#7
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I love Nevada this week..
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09-15-06, 05:45 PM
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#8
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Even though sdsu killed me week one I agree with you here I like the Aztecs also I just hope that stupid punter can kick the ball farther then 15 yards this week.
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09-15-06, 06:21 PM
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#9
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GL Pags. Nice write ups, myself have never been one for write ups, good to read yours and get more insight. Thanks and GL.
" Scared money nver wins" AMEN to that.
Since day 1 almost 9 years ago . I told myself this.....
SCARED MONEY IS DEAD MONEY! Those playing with money ill afforded will be in for a brutal reality check some point in life. 100% guaranteed.
Sorry for the ramble and GL as always!!!
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09-15-06, 09:12 PM
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#10
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Good luck bud
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09-16-06, 12:43 AM
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#11
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Dan,
I agree w/ you...Iowa St. is never a great favorite, but they're a good dog...
hawk 5,
thanks for the info. regarding the weather...not a totals player but I do appreciate the effort...
Illusion,
thanks very much...
chadwick,
yeah, I'm willing to take my chances getting points with a legit bowl team...GL to you...
Don Dollars,
appreciate your feedback...going to Wisconsin is never easy, just think they'll put up a good fight for most of the game...GL to you...
imgv,
glad you're on Nevada as well...makes me rest a little easier...
sjelveh,
the kid's gonna have to punt better than he did vs. UTEP for sure...
oddshunter,
I can type pretty fast, took me about 20 mins. to do it...thanks though...
razz,
GL to you as well, brother...
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09-16-06, 12:56 AM
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#12
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With you on Nevada. Coming off two tough road games, they will be pumped at home where they are a much stonger performer. Also playing with revenge. CSU has poor road ATS record.
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09-16-06, 01:58 AM
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#13
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that's the way I see it too, alta...
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09-16-06, 03:29 AM
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#14
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Let me get your thoughts on the New Mexico/Missouri game tomorrow night Pags. I'm curious to get somebody elses opinion on this game.
__________________
Enjoying retirement.
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09-16-06, 08:26 AM
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#15
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I wish I would have got Navy at +3, but I still like them at +1. They win this game by two TDs...
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09-16-06, 09:10 AM
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#16
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I like your picks for Nevada, Navy and Hawaii............the other picks are good as well, but I'm having a strong feeling on these 3 teams......lets make some money today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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09-16-06, 04:13 PM
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#17
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You're off too a good start... 1-0 and SDSU tied at the half at the badgers.
Go get um, Pags!
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09-16-06, 05:46 PM
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#18
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Hahaha right... I am hanging in there... Took a beating on the VT game... by one friggin points
Quote:
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Originally Posted by McBa1n
You're off too a good start... 1-0 and SDSU tied at the half at the badgers.
Go get um, Pags!
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09-16-06, 05:59 PM
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#19
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doh, i had sdsu +13 1/2, nice cover, pags... damn, lesson learned: line shop!
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09-16-06, 09:03 PM
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#20
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way to get hook in the badgers game... saved you some dough.
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09-16-06, 11:09 PM
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#21
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Spectacular performance today, pags! Thanks for helping us all make some money.
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09-17-06, 12:02 AM
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#22
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I remember reading something about Pags11 when i first joined this forum a few months back and holy cow, it was dead on. it said that he was the best capper on here and today was the day i thought i would follow his plays. here it is midnight and i'm up quite a bit. the guy definitely knows what he is talking about. Thanks Pags11 and I look forward to the rest of the season.
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09-17-06, 12:32 AM
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#23
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i kicked ass today!
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09-17-06, 12:40 AM
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#24
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Congrats on your picks.
Your write ups are excellent too.
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09-17-06, 01:01 AM
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#25
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I wish I would have followed your plays today pags. I did have ISU today pertty healthy though, and New Mexico covered for me as well. So I too had a very solid day myself.
congrats pags
__________________
Enjoying retirement.
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09-17-06, 01:06 AM
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#26
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Anyone who says pags isn't one of the better college football minds in the forum world doesn't know what they are talking about superb..
P.S
Not a bad day for me either. +9.04 units.
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09-17-06, 07:22 AM
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#27
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I rode pags' picks today and blew 1 by not line shopping (sigh)
Heluva day man, way to get into gear!
Thanks for the sweet picks!
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09-17-06, 05:35 PM
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#28
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Dan,
sorry I didn't get to your post sooner...New Mexico plus DD's at home is always a solid play in my book...excellent hit there bud...
crackerjack,
you were right about Navy...I was a little concerned about their D and the QB play, but they looked awesome (and Stanford looked pretty bad)...
philavanh,
looks like you had a good day yesterday...Hawaii was impressive in the first half for sure...thanks...
McBa1n,
yeah, I kind of lucked out with SDSU...cascade was showing 14.5 for a couple of hours on Wednesday and I was fortunate to get the number...line shopping definitely pays off and I'm sure you will do so in the future my friend...
jaffers,
appreciate it buddy...was really impressed with Wisconsin's D...and unimpressed with SDSU's O, but it cashed...thank you...
isetcap,
not a problem at all...thanks for the support...
gambler,
I try bud...usually takes a couple of weeks to get going but I'm starting to get a beat on things...couldn't have done it without the help of other great cappers that I associate with (including IMGV)...
imgv,
takes one to know one bro, great job yesterday...congrats also on beating the prick...
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09-17-06, 09:20 PM
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#29
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nice job this week pag... congrats on the beat the prick... you definently earned it this week...
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09-17-06, 11:45 PM
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#30
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Very nice Pags. Here and in the BTP Contest.
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09-18-06, 02:50 AM
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#31
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LV Herbie,
thank you sir...
onlooker,
thank you...
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09-18-06, 03:29 AM
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#32
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pags11
couldn't have done it without the help of other great cappers that I associate with (including IMGV)...
imgv,
takes one to know one bro, great job yesterday...congrats also on beating the prick...
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Thanks pags especially coming from you.. You know I never let a week go by without knowing what you got.
Lets kick the books ass again..
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09-18-06, 03:44 AM
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#33
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imgv,
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Linear Mode
