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Old 09-12-06, 07:51 AM   #1
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Default Matt Fargo: Play UL-Monroe

Fargo: Play UL-Monroe

By: Matt Fargo
http://www.procappers.com

Alabama has been very unimpressive this season and laying this many points is uncalled for Saturday night against UL-Monroe.

Alabama is currently 65th in rushing offense, averaging just 129.5 ypg and 3.4 ypc. The worst part is that the two games have come against Hawaii and Vanderbilt, not exactly the best rushing defenses out there.

The Tide is averaging only 19 ppg and this offense looks like it is going to struggle for quite some time. The offensive line isn’t clicking yet, which shouldn’t be surprising considering all the changes.

La-Monroe is coming off a narrow 2-point loss at Kansas this past Saturday and that isn’t even the full story. The Warhawks outgained the Jayhawks 466-377 and a missed 2-point conversion was the difference. This team will be a contender for the Sun Belt title and while that conference in certainly no SEC, the Warhawks are solid all around.

They have gone 10-12 over the last two seasons but that is coming off a 7-39 four-year run so this is still a team on the rise. The Warhawks finished 77th in total offense and 88th in scoring offense last season so the loss of Steven Jyles at quarterback might not be as big as everyone is predicting. Kinsmon Lancaster has been impressive thus far and will only get better with experience. A strong offensive line is equally important and La-Monroe has just that with everyone back from last year. The rushing offense has improved each of the last three seasons and with a new signal caller, it will go up for a fourth straight season.

The Alabama defense was one of the best in the country last season but it has not looked nearly as good in the early part of this season. There is every possibility that the Tide can limit La-Monroe to a small number of points but it comes down to the offense needing to likely have to put up at least 30 to cover this number and that is going to be tough. The Tide is ranked 53rd in total defense and a rather poor 96th in total defense and Lancaster is coming off a 377-yard performance against Kansas. The Warhawks have been decent on defense, ranked 40th in total defense and 31 in scoring defense and even though one of those games was against I-AA Alcorn St., it is still rather impressive. All indications are that the defensive line looked very good in the spring while the linebackers and secondary looked even better. This will be one of the best secondaries in the conference with two all-Sun Belt players roaming the backfield.

The Tide has not been getting the job done in the red zone. Alabama had seven possessions in Vanderbilt territory, but only scored one touchdown. The other six ended on two field goals, two fumbles lost, a punt and a failed fake field goal. The Tide is tied for ninth with Arkansas in the SEC with six scores in nine redzone trips (67 percent). It is also tied for ninth with Vanderbilt in touchdowns with one. This is not a new problem for the Tide however. In 2005, it was eighth in the SEC with 32 scores in 42 chances (76.2 percent). The 18 touchdowns ranked ninth in the conference.

Play: UL-Monroe
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Old 09-12-06, 11:17 AM   #2
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Actually like this one. Alabama has failed to cover its last eight tries as a home favorite, and something is seriously wrong with Darby.
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Old 09-12-06, 02:23 PM   #3
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Razz,

really, he's still injured or what?...
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Old 09-13-06, 12:13 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pags11
Razz,

really, he's still injured or what?...
It's more like he's running scared - maybe the injury is still there, maybe it's just a fear of re-injury. Either way, I know a lot of folks around here are hoping Johns will start getting a lot more PT.
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Old 09-13-06, 03:18 AM   #5
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thanks razz...
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Old 09-13-06, 03:54 PM   #6
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Thanks for your comments on Darby, appreciate it. I also think ULM is an intriguing play with 24.5 points considering their performance last week (although it was only Kansas). Looked like Lancaster was able to spread the ball around nicely to throw for 377. I also like the 4-12-1 as 20+ favourites angle against Alabama.
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Old 09-13-06, 04:26 PM   #7
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It's always tough to take UL-Monroe, no matter who they play. But betting the under in Alabama games is a sure bet all season long.
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Old 09-14-06, 02:54 AM   #8
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I'm on this one as well...
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