[John Ryan]

This line opened where I expected and so far the early action is two-way with nearly equal number of bets on both teams. Present numbers I am looking at show 53% of all bets being made on Hawaii and 47% on the home dog San Jose State. I don’t see this line dropping much before Friday night and if anything I do believe the lines maker has this game pegged very well.

As a reminder, the lines maker did not make this based on a prediction for the outcome of the game. He made this line based on the level where he expects the action to be equal. They do not care who wins the game. What they care about is establishing a static line that does not need to be adjusted up or down to react to the betting flows.

The games that you see large line movements of three or more points are a books nightmare as the probability of getting ‘middled’ increase proportionally to the line movement. The early bettors, who got the low price can then ‘buy back’ the game at the higher price and have to pay only the ‘vig’ if the game does not get ‘middled.’

Large players can bet early and make the line move and this in turn attracts the smaller bettors, who get caught up the line action. Once the public gets ‘all in’ then the large players, or sharks as they are commonly called, can buy back the game or a portion of the game and still have a decent size bet if their initial play wins or the big return if the game gets ‘middled’.

Most of you already know this, but for any beginners in our forum it is one of the first things to truly learn about sports betting.

[John Ryan]

It will interesting to see where this total opens.

If you have not already read my 'Openers' article check it out for this game at:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/college-foot...pener-a-21558/

[xpo136]

have you started a thread on the Thursday night game between USC and CAL?

[fishmonger]

I'm thinking SJSU. If it hits +7 or higher I would definitely play it. SJSU hung tough with Hawaii past two times at home with loses in OT to far superior Hawaii teams and worse Spartan teams played then. Brennan went undefeated that year they almost lost in SJSU. This SJSU team is not the SJSU of the old. They have competed in every football game they have played except for Stanford. This is only their 3rd home game of the season and with a close loss to Nevada (which I think they would of won if Matt Faulkner would of played the whole game) I feel people are still thinking that this is still that crappy WAC team that everyone beats up on. Matt was out for the UCLA game so who knows what could of happened if he was in.

A couple lucky bounces and non injures this team could be 4-2 easy. They struggled against BYU run game but Hawaii does not run so that is a non issue. I have stated a lot of ifs and could ofs. But I still think SJSU would be the play. For me at least.

[travismcilrath]

i think hawii covers

[travismcilrath]

easily

[travismcilrath]

probably over too

[John Ryan]

Tonight.. slight lean toward Cal.. Can trust a Southern Cal team that gave up 80+ points to the state of Arizona the past two weeks. I have the PLAYS on this Friday night game in the CFB section of SBR. check it out. I will be posting early evening tonight ET. Thanks all.

[BathingApe]

As a hawaii fan I'd say be careful of sjst. It's true they play us tough at home but uh seems to have gotten their shit together after the uc Davis game. That being said I'm probably rolling with uh because I'm still not impressed with sjst

[John Ryan]

I'm thinking SJSU. If it hits +7 or higher I would definitely play it. SJSU hung tough with Hawaii past two times at home with loses in OT to far superior Hawaii teams and worse Spartan teams played then. Brennan went undefeated that year they almost lost in SJSU. This SJSU team is not the SJSU of the old. They have competed in every football game they have played except for Stanford. This is only their 3rd home game of the season and with a close loss to Nevada (which I think they would of won if Matt Faulkner would of played the whole game) I feel people are still thinking that this is still that crappy WAC team that everyone beats up on. Matt was out for the UCLA game so who knows what could of happened if he was in.

A couple lucky bounces and non injures this team could be 4-2 easy. They struggled against BYU run game but Hawaii does not run so that is a non issue. I have stated a lot of ifs and could ofs. But I still think SJSU would be the play. For me at least.

Great insight.

[salvador_7764]

I work with monoxide father.

[John Ryan]

Consider betting the 5* amounts on both the ‘over’ and San Jose State. Then add to them a 3* amount parlaying San Jose State using the money line (currently at +193 at Pinnacle Sports) and the ‘over’. Further adding a fourth bet of 3* amount teasing San Jose State and the ‘over’’. Believe me, this is very rare that I am recommending all these types of best on the same game spanning my 18 years of sports handicapping, but I strongly believe it is completely valid.

[Seaton420]

Consider betting the 5* amounts on both the ‘over’ and San Jose State. Then add to them a 3* amount parlaying San Jose State using the money line (currently at +193 at Pinnacle Sports) and the ‘over’. Further adding a fourth bet of 3* amount teasing San Jose State and the ‘over’’. Believe me, this is very rare that I am recommending all these types of best on the same game spanning my 18 years of sports handicapping, but I strongly believe it is completely valid.

Your an Idiot!

[John Ryan]

Here is my Final Thoughts article for this game. Make $2700 wagering $100.00 per * unit play. Yes, there is risk and one of the bets (money lien and over) is the least likely to hit, BUT.... I absolutely love the opportunity.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/college-foot...ughts-a-21608/

[16johnnymac]

John I am new to a reverse bet can you give me a detailed description on how to bet and who to bet on for a reverse bet ie what to check on the site. Thank you very much J Mac

[drew2]

John in ncaa my book is giving me over 56 its ok?

[John Ryan]

John I am new to a reverse bet can you give me a detailed description on how to bet and who to bet on for a reverse bet ie what to check on the site. Thank you very much J Mac

Check this out. This is one of the best studies I have seen on the reverse bet.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/reverse-bets/

[John Ryan]

John in ncaa my book is giving me over 56 its ok?

yep... in my 18 years I have lost and won by a 1/2 point every once in a while. A late line movement has never negated a play. The play has a projected outcome of at least seven points over the line. So if Team A is favored by 7, my research indicates that they will win by 14. It's like a seven point cushion to allow for those bad calls and blocked punts etc. and know you are still in the game even under the worst circumstances.

[John Ryan]

probably over too

We both like the 'over'. I really like laying the money line and the 'over' though with SJST.


Once the Spartans hit 26 or more points you are in a position where you cannot lose BOTH bets. With a line of six points, Hawaii would need to score 33 points for the Spartans to lose this ATS, but the combined score of 57 points would win the total play.

The money line parlay is the bet I like, but has substantial risk with it as well. For examples, if you wager $100.00 per star unit play you will have a 5* bet risking $550.00 on both San Jose State and the ‘over’. The ‘teaser’ bet will be risking $360.00 to win $300.00 and then the parlay with San Jose State using the Money Line and the ‘over’ At a +190 line and risking -110 on the total a $100 parlay winner will pay back $453.64. So, be extension a $300 parlay would return $1360.91

If proven correct on this game the maximum gain wagering $100 per star unit would $2760.91 consisting of the two $500 winners (side and total), a $300 winner on the teaser and $1360.91 winner on the money line and total parlay.

Of the four best the money least likely to win is the money line parlay so if San Jose just covers and the game goes ‘over’ the net profit will still be $970.00 consisting of the TWO $500 bets, a $300 teaser win, then losing a $330 money parlay bet. Of course depending on the book you use will vary these results based on how much ‘vig’ is being paid.

[spladle08]

35-14 Hawaii.. GO GO GO
No sold on the Idea of SJSU putting up points
UCLA and Nevada both allow more points per game than Hawaii and held SJSU to 17 and 14...

[John Ryan]

35-14 Hawaii.. GO GO GO
No sold on the Idea of SJSU putting up points
UCLA and Nevada both allow more points per game than Hawaii and held SJSU to 17 and 14...

All true, but that was three weeks ago and then SJST scored 30+ in two straight before not doing well against BYU. I think the travel from the big island is a hard one and I do think that it will show them a step slower.. we'll see.

[John Ryan]

I will be around at the half for a possible half-time opportunity as well. But unless SJST is winning and there are 42 or more points scored, I do not think I will be adding to the existing FOUR bets.

[Seaton420]

We both like the 'over'. I really like laying the money line and the 'over' though with SJST.


Once the Spartans hit 26 or more points you are in a position where you cannot lose BOTH bets. With a line of six points, Hawaii would need to score 33 points for the Spartans to lose this ATS, but the combined score of 57 points would win the total play.

The money line parlay is the bet I like, but has substantial risk with it as well. For examples, if you wager $100.00 per star unit play you will have a 5* bet risking $550.00 on both San Jose State and the ‘over’. The ‘teaser’ bet will be risking $360.00 to win $300.00 and then the parlay with San Jose State using the Money Line and the ‘over’ At a +190 line and risking -110 on the total a $100 parlay winner will pay back $453.64. So, be extension a $300 parlay would return $1360.91

If proven correct on this game the maximum gain wagering $100 per star unit would $2760.91 consisting of the two $500 winners (side and total), a $300 winner on the teaser and $1360.91 winner on the money line and total parlay.

Of the four best the money least likely to win is the money line parlay so if San Jose just covers and the game goes ‘over’ the net profit will still be $970.00 consisting of the TWO $500 bets, a $300 teaser win, then losing a $330 money parlay bet. Of course depending on the book you use will vary these results based on how much ‘vig’ is being paid.

You have typed a bunch of CRAP! what a bunch of gibberish! 1st of all you predict that SJSU will score a ton of points? but you give no reasons why you think so...SJSU star running back is out with an ankle injury and they have not lit up the score board all year. I think your a joke. but we will see...

Hawaii 42

SJSU 24

[Seaton420]

Tonight.. slight lean toward Cal.. Can trust a Southern Cal team that gave up 80+ points to the state of Arizona the past two weeks. I have the PLAYS on this Friday night game in the CFB section of SBR. check it out. I will be posting early evening tonight ET. Thanks all.

Nice lean on Cal douche!

and now you like SJSU!

why dont you have your cat make the picks next time cause you SUCK!

Im gonna follow you though cause your a great crapper to fade!

[Seaton420]

All true, but that was three weeks ago and then SJST scored 30+ in two straight before not doing well against BYU. I think the travel from the big island is a hard one and I do think that it will show them a step slower.. we'll see.

You also forgot to add to all your research that SJSU star running back is out with an injury! Go back to your moms thinking couch and conduct more reviews...dick!

[BernardMadoff]

You have typed a bunch of CRAP! what a bunch of gibberish! 1st of all you predict that SJSU will score a ton of points? but you give no reasons why you think so...SJSU star running back is out with an ankle injury and they have not lit up the score board all year. I think your a joke. but we will see...

Hawaii 42

SJSU 24

He stated SJS scoring 26, you have 24 so who's the stupid one.

[spladle08]

Seaton I almost quoted the same post and wrote "this makes me feel better about my Hawaii pick"... but yeah John I figured you would have cited both Nevada and UCLA playing more prolific offenses and obviously Oregon posting 69 on Nevada hurt their overall average, UCLA however is just bad, but playing Stanford, Houston, and Texas hasn't helped their numbers... Yes my numbers were irrelevant but meh I was just arguing my pick. SJSU has broke 30 twice this year, against powers Colorado State and New Mexico State, besides those 2 back to back wins they haven't broke 20... hard to convince myself they will erupt for 26+... but I reckon we will see.. good luck John, I hope this is similar to the cal/usc game.. I want those $$$$

[Seaton420]

He stated SJS scoring 26, you have 24 so who's the stupid one.

ur right.

Hawaii 42

SJSU 13

[drew2]

John parlay over 56 and san jose +6 its ok?

[John Ryan]

He stated SJS scoring 26, you have 24 so who's the stupid one.

Moreover, just to further clarify, This is ONLY explaining when you can't LOSE BOTH PLAYS. Not that SJST will only score 26 points. So, if you are following my plays for tonight there are certainly a multitude of ways for the bets to split, but the one level where you positively cannot lose BOTH is when SJST scores 26. After that you are at worst break-even. That is one of the reasons I like this bet, because I think they score 26 or more points.

[John Ryan]

John parlay over 56 and san jose +6 its ok?

yes. and as I stated you can consider the reverse bet OR Money line and the 'over'. They have substantially more risk and are least likely to cash of the four bets listed. Again, valid as outlined.

[Seaton420]

John parlay over 56 and san jose +6 its ok?

[John Ryan]

Seaton I almost quoted the same post and wrote "this makes me feel better about my Hawaii pick"... but yeah John I figured you would have cited both Nevada and UCLA playing more prolific offenses and obviously Oregon posting 69 on Nevada hurt their overall average, UCLA however is just bad, but playing Stanford, Houston, and Texas hasn't helped their numbers... Yes my numbers were irrelevant but meh I was just arguing my pick. SJSU has broke 30 twice this year, against powers Colorado State and New Mexico State, besides those 2 back to back wins they haven't broke 20... hard to convince myself they will erupt for 26+... but I reckon we will see.. good luck John, I hope this is similar to the cal/usc game.. I want those $$$$

I did emphasize a slight lean on Cal I believe as opposed to a 5*Titan play. In the NFL thread I am hitting 66% ATS with 5* plays and have offered advice when asked and sometimes I do have a lean. That certainly does not mean it is a play to load up on. It is a play if I had to play it for a pool then I would have taken Cal.

[spladle08]

No worries.. JR... We have both been wrong and one of us will be tonight I only have 1 bet in play here so I will hope mine covers and you can win the OVER and all the rest... I just need Hawaii to cover 5.5 go go go Good Luck this weekend sir

[John Ryan]

10/13/2011 - Brandon Rutley is upgraded to probable Friday vs. Hawaii ( Ankle ) This is what my news database had for him yesterday. Moreover,





SJSU standout running back Brandon Rutley cleared to play Friday

By Jeff Faraudo
jfaraudo@bayareanewsgroup.com
Posted: 10/13/2011 02:42:53 PM PDT

Sidelined by an ankle sprain for nearly two weeks, senior running back Brandon Rutley practiced again Thursday and will start for San Jose State on Friday night against Hawaii.
Rutley helped power the Spartans to victories over New Mexico State and Colorado State, rushing for a combined 340 yards in the two games. But he sprained his left ankle in the second half of the CSU game and did not play in SJSU's 29-16 loss at BYU on Saturday.
He practiced for the first time on Wednesday, then again Thursday.