[Machine Choice]

I'm not sure if I am going to play this system or not. But last year it went 10-2.

Here it is: Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs. Take every top 60 team whose SOS is better than 60 AND who is facing an oponent whose SOS is worse than 60.

So here are the teams to take ATS this year:

USC
Alabama
Wake Forest
South Florida
Arizona
TCU
NC State
Missouri
Rice
Kentucky
UCONN
Ball State

[Dark Horse]

Does anyone have historical record for L5 or L10 years?

[dle]

I would not take Missouri (-13.5) over Northwestern or Ball State without their head coach.

The rest look good.

[EBone]

I love posts like this. Thanks for sharing.



E

[CaneDawg]

intresting

[roasthawg]

Really with only a 12 game sample size I'd say it's probably as likely to pick winners as throwing darts at a board. It's something worth researching for sure but that's about it until you can get some more data.

[Kingctb27]

Bama is probably my #1 play. Esp if you want to buy half a point, but they will probably win by 28

[roasthawg]

Originally Posted by Kingctb27

Bama is probably my #1 play. Esp if you want to buy half a point, but they will probably win by 28

They have some talent in the trenches, that's for sure! Smith and Cody will both be good NFL players.

[Cougar Bait]

Glad I'm already on 4 of these games.

[EBone]

I don't like Arizona. I'm leanin' toward BYU although I haven't made a play yet.




E

[Wheell]

this system can be backtested. Anyone interested?

[Machine Choice]

My mistake. This system was 11-1 last year, not 10-2.

I originally counted TCU as a system loss but I shouldn't have. TCU's SOS was 72 last year, yet they covered their game against Houston. But Houston's SOS was 129, so that was actually a system win.

Only Virginia Tech was a system loss last year. They failed to cover in their game against Kansas. Kansas was supposed to be a system fade.

[carrenzo]

Great post thanks

[losturmarbles]

12 team parlay anyone?

[Machine Choice]

Originally Posted by losturmarbles

12 team parlay anyone?

If you put $10 on the 12-teamer, it would pay $23,428

[Machine Choice]

I will give this system a shot until I lose two in a row. If that happens, I will end it.

WAKE FOREST -3
SOUTH FLORIDA -11

[bmw530i]

Inertersting Machine, Hope your Bowls start off well.

[Machine Choice]

1-0

[Machine Choice]

I just bought USF at -10 for -125. Something told me to do this.

[flavo-ice]

Machine-
I don't understand your system here. I am looking at the sagarin ratings and of the top 60 sagarin teams, only 2(montana and richmond) have a SOS rating of 60 or lower.

Am I missing something here?

Navy is #39 in sagarin with SOS of 68.40. BYU is #23 in sagarin with SOS of 67.29. Memphis is #100 in sagarin.

[Machine Choice]

Originally Posted by flavo-ice

Machine-
I don't understand your system here. I am looking at the sagarin ratings and of the top 60 sagarin teams, only 2(montana and richmond) have a SOS rating of 60 or lower.

Am I missing something here?

Navy is #39 in sagarin with SOS of 68.40. BYU is #23 in sagarin with SOS of 67.29. Memphis is #100 in sagarin.

"60 or lower" means 60 or worse, in other words, 60 through 335......so all of my examples apply. The teams listed in the first post are the ones you are supposed to take.

[Machine Choice]

Originally Posted by flavo-ice

Machine-
I don't understand your system here. I am looking at the sagarin ratings and of the top 60 sagarin teams, only 2(montana and richmond) have a SOS rating of 60 or lower.

Am I missing something here?

Navy is #39 in sagarin with SOS of 68.40. BYU is #23 in sagarin with SOS of 67.29. Memphis is #100 in sagarin.

For instance, South Florida is a top 60 team (#49) and their SOS is 59. Their opponent is Memphis, whose SOS is 117. So USF is a system play at -11. I bought them at -10 for -125, but that was just a personal decision. USF -11 is the system play.

[flavo-ice]

Not to split hairs here, but on your initial post the system says of the top 60 sagarin teams, fade ATS(those of the top 60) whose SOS is 60 or lower. Memphis is ranked #100 by sagarin, so they wouldn't make the list of the top 60 sagarin teams to look at, so I wouldn't fade them and take s.fla.

And what SOS rating system are you using? I assume not sagarin. If you go to this website you'll see the sagaring SOS ratings:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt08.htm

The system to me(the way you are describing it)sounds like we are supposed to look at the top 60 sagarin teams and find out if their opponents have a crummy SOS, and then play against.

[Machine Choice]

Originally Posted by flavo-ice

Not to split hairs here, but on your initial post the system says of the top 60 sagarin teams, fade those ATS(of the top 60) whose SOS is 60 or lower. Memphis is ranked #100 by sagarin, so they wouldn't make the list of the top 60 sagarin teams, so I wouldn't fade them and take s.fla.

And what SOS rating system are you using? I assume not sagarin. If you go to this website you'll see the sagaring SOS ratings:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt08.htm

Memphis is not in the top 60, I agree. But their SOS is a horrible 117 and their opponent, USF, qualifies both of the conditions of the system:

1. USF is a top 60 team
2. USF's SOS is 59

This is how I structured the system last year, and this is the same way I am playing it this year. Don't try to tell me how the system works. I created it.

[Machine Choice]

I see what you're saying though....maybe i should add a sentence that says, "take every top 60 team whose SOS is better than 60 AND who is facing an oponent whose SOS is worse than 60."

[flavo-ice]

Good deal. By the way I wasn't trying to be combative, I am just a detail guy and was checking over the system. So far WF is 1-0 and I was on it so let's keep it going.

[Machine Choice]

The evening play is Arizona -3.5

[Machine Choice]

Originally Posted by flavo-ice

Good deal. By the way I wasn't trying to be combative, I am just a detail guy and was checking over the system. So far WF is 1-0 and I was on it so let's keep it going.

I clarified and edited the rules in my first post based upon your recommendation. Looks like USF is having no problems with Memphis, so this will probably be another system win.

[Machine Choice]

Originally Posted by flavo-ice

Good deal. By the way I wasn't trying to be combative, I am just a detail guy and was checking over the system. So far WF is 1-0 and I was on it so let's keep it going.

You see now why USF was a play.

[Machine Choice]

2-0

Arizona -3.5 is the next play, and the system will be truly tested now. BYU looks solid, but I'm staying with the system. I bought the half-point to get Arizona -3.

[Machine Choice]

But I do like these stats for 'Zona.....

BYU are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

ARZ are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

ARZ are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.

[Regul8er]

You should have waited it out and saved those extra few bucks. Most books offer Arizona at -3 now. Oh Well

[tbond10]

I'm on the system play. Arizona -3 it is. Good day so far with my own capped games but for me this zona byu game could go either way and I want the action.... Go Zona! Good luck guys!

[Dfjay9]

I liked zona but I had -3.5 Local book, no buying points

I laid off

[Machine Choice]

Originally Posted by Dfjay9

I liked zona but I had -3.5 Local book, no buying points

I laid off

Buying points is not in the system. I'm doing it for insurance, but it's probably unnecessary and I probably won't do it again.