[Dbldown11]

I'm going to start looking at these opening lines. I should have all these games broken into one of my three categories by tomorrow night at the latest.

[Dbldown11]

I'll update this, but after a quick glanse these stand out

Getting too many points:

Army +17 @ Rutgers
Indiana +13 @ Purdue
Michigan +20.5 @ Ohio St.
N.C. St. +11 @ North Carolina
Arkansas +1 @ Mississippi St.
FAU +5.5 @ Arkansas St.
Northwestern +2.5 vs. Illinois
Marshall +8.5 @ Rice
Michigan St. +14.5 @ Penn St.
UTEP +15 @ Houston
Mississippi +5 @ LSU
New Mexico St. +7 vs. Louisiana Tech
Duke +17 @ Va. Tech
Pittsburgh +5 @ Cincy





Not giving enough points:

Clemson -2.5 @ Virginia
Vanderbilt 3 vs. Tennessee
Colorado St. -2.5 @ Wyoming
Tulsa -28.5 vs. Tulane
Wake Forest -2 vs. Boston College
Utah -6.5 vs. BYU
Florida Intl. -6.5 vs. Louisiana Monroe
Oklahoma -6 vs. Texas Tech


Line's right/no play:

West Va. -7 @ Louisville
Temple -10.5 vs. Eastern Michigan
Memphi -4.5 vs. UCF
Notre Dame -19.5 vs. Syracuse
Washington -7.5 @ Washington St.
Iowa St. +9.5 @ Kansas St.
Akron -2.5 @ Ohio
TCU -19.5 vs. Air Force
California -9 vs. Stanford
Mid. Tenn. St. -20 vs. North Texas
Boise St. -6 @ Nevada
East Carolina -6.5 @ UAB
Iowa -5.5 @ Minnesota
Oregon St. +3 @ Arizona
UL Layfayette +8 @ Troy
Maryland -1.5 vs. Fl. St.
UNLV -12.5 @ San Diego St.
Hawaii -23 vs. Idaho

[jtuck]

Memphis is solid this week. Not a homer call, i bet against them when the time is right, but we are at least a touchdown better than UCF.

[Dbldown11]

I agree jtuck...UCF has been playing better lately, so i've gotta break the game down a bit more, but at first glance i deffinately like memphis here

[Dbldown11]

a lot of work to do with these games....but I can say deffinatively that I will be on:

UTAH -6

[Lout84]

Dbl, what do you think about NIU at Kent St (unbiased as possible)?

[Dbldown11]

i'm not going to touch the game, but if I was to play it, I'd take NIU -4. Kent St. is bad, and the only games NIU hasnt looked good in were against the 2 best teams in the MAC in Central Michigan, and Ball St. They even played well at the third best team in the MAC which is Western Michigan, so my play would be NIU -4.

[Dbldown11]

decided to look into these a little more before I make them a sure thing.....sorry for the change.

[Cougar Bait]

That Duke line does seem a bit off, especially with a struggling VT offense.

[Dbldown11]

The entire list is now done and posted.....it's the first post in the thread

[Dbldown11]

it's that time wher I've got start widdling down the list....If anyone has thoughts or opinions on any games listed in the first 2 categories I'd be grateful for any insight

[Dbldown11]

Dogs I am removing:

Army/Rutgers: I still think that this is too many points for Army to get here. Both of these teams have been playing MUCH better than they did at the beginning of the season. And Army has played close in every game since week 4. However, Rutgers has just been playing too good, and even though Army is playing better they still arent good enough to trust completely in this spot.

I'm also taking away Indian/Purdue....Again it's too many points. But Id just as soon not bet a game with 2 shitty teams. When you bet bad teams with a spread of this size, it could really go either way, and I'm not looking for a coinflip situation.

Im taking off NC St./North Carolina: It's one of Pags plays, and the line looks a bit high. I just see N.C. St. having a hard time stopping North Carolina, and I think they'll have to score a lot to keep up. I'm gonna pass.

Northwester/Illinois: This line seems backwards which actually scares me....plus I think Illinois is going to put up some points, the question is can Northwestern keep up...the answer? I'm not so sure.

Marshall/Rice: I wish I had the balls to bet this but I dont....Marshall is getting too many points here without question. I caution ANYONE that thinks Rice is an easy play here...The only teams they've beaten by more that 8 all season have been SMU, North Texas, and Tulane (3 of the worst teams in college football). Everyone else they have played close. Rice can score though, and Marshall's offense is slightly suspect which is why I'll lay off. But I deffinately would not lay the points with Rice.

Michigan St./Penn St.: This is obviously too many points dont get me wrong....however as of this point in time I cant make this a play. Why? because if Ohio St. wins their noon kickoff it knocked Mich. St. out of Big Ten title hopes...in that scenario the only team playing for that title is Penn St. Id be worried Mich. St. is gonna be down, and may lay an egg in this game....However if Ohio St. does end up losing (which is possible it's a rivalry game after all) the first thing ever single person should do is hit this line before it drops...If Ohio St. loses I guarantee you'll see this thing drop below 10 before kickoff

UTEP/Houston: Not much to say...just see a Houston team that actually does have a good shot to cover.

[Dbldown11]

Favorites I'm removing:

Wake Forest/B.C.: Taking another one of Pags plays out....this will probably be a killer for me. But I think Wake is going to have a hard time scoring against this B.C. defense which means they are going to have to shut down B.C. and they havnt shown the ability to do that.


That's the only favorite I'm taking off for now

[Dbldown11]

That makes my current plays that I'll be looking into more:

Michigan +20.5 @ Ohio St.
Arkansas +1 @ Mississippi St.
FAU +5.5 @ Arkansas St.
Mississippi +5 @ LSU
New Mexico St. +7 vs. Louisiana Tech
Duke +17 @ Va. Tech
Pittsburgh +5 @ Cincy
Clemson -2.5 @ Virginia
Vanderbilt -3 vs. Tennessee
Colorado St. -2.5 @ Wyoming
Tulsa -28.5 vs. Tulane
Utah -6.5 vs. BYU
Florida Intl. -6.5 vs. Louisiana Monroe
Oklahoma -6 vs. Texas Tech


I'm sure at least a couple more games will be taken off here, as always thoughts or insights on these games will be greatly appreciated.

[Cougar Bait]

I know Tulane sucks, but giving up all those points with a Tulsa team that frankly couldn't stop the local JV football team seems a bit risky. Not sure on Michigan either. Convince me. I'm more than willing to listen. Northwestern was on there earlier...I kinda like that game. NW still has something to play for, Illini have mailed it in. That 30-20 game vs. OSU last week wasn't nearly that close if you watched it...may have something to do with the line "seeming backwards". I really thought NW would be a 3 point fav coming in. Do you have any bullet points on the Ok vs. TTech game? I know OU is about 14 points better at home...still trying to figure out what side to be on? Seems Tech can't be stopped and the Sooner D worries me. Looks like some good selections here. Keep it up DD!

[Dbldown11]

Thanks for the insight Cougar....

-I have to look at Tulane's offense more, if it's real bad I'll probably keep the play. But even mediocre and the play goes.

-Michigan is getting 21 points in a rivalry game. This is their "bowl game/championsip game". They have a chance to knock Ohio St. out of the Rose Bowl and ruin their season, a win here and their "worst season ever" will be almost forgotten. I think Michigan will be jacked up for this game, so 21 points is a lot. Plust Ohio St. hasnt blown anyone out at home all year long.

-For some reason the northwestern game scares me so I'm staying away, but I cant fault anyone for taking them.

-I like Oklahoma st. at 7 or less because I think they are the best team in the Big12, and they are unbeatable at home. This will be Techs THIRD STRAIGHT huge game and at some point it's gotta ware on them, not to mention that this is the last of the 3 and it's on the road to the toughest home team in the nation. Also the crowd is going to be out of their minds.....

Just my thoughts so far....got a long week ahead.

[Dbldown11]

Games that I will deffinately be playing are:

FAU +5.5 @ Arkansas St
Duke +17 @ Va. Tech
Pittsburgh +5 @ Cincy
Clemson -2.5 @ Virginia
Utah -6.5 vs. BYU
Fl. Intl -6.5 vs. Louisiana Monroe

Gotta wait on the rest...do some more research and see how the lines move

[casper]

I have been to more than half the Cal games this year and follow them closely....

Stanford has more motive to win, to become bowl eligible. Cal is playing to see which crap bowl game they go to: Poinsettia v. Sun or Emerald.

Stanford, other than to USC, has not lost by double digits in probably its last six games. Stanford is playing better football than Cal. Harbaugh's grit has rubbed off on his team. This is the biggest rivalry game for both teams. It has a history of coming down to the wire.

Cal, like last year, is playing worse every week. Good defense but no production on offense, whether its Riley or Longshore at quarterback.

[Kingctb27]

Dbl down you my friend are a good capper. Along with Pags and some other guys at the Rx you are one of the few I follow. I only do my own plays in college football in the big twelve. Guys I look at on the rx are (GoSooners, Boxslayer, VOR, and Randizzle) You ought to give them a look as well. Solid cappers.

[Dbldown11]

thanks for the insight casper but I'm not familiar enough with those teams so I'm staying away.

Very much appreciated King....I'll have a look. Thanks for the vote of confidence.

[Rixsaw]

I will be with you on

Colorado St. -2.5 @ Wyoming
Utah -6.5 vs. BYU
Fl. Intl -6.5 vs. Louisiana Monroe

[Dbldown11]

I am going to be removing Colorado St. for now
but may add it again later....Their record on the road scares me a bit. Need to look into this some more

[Dbldown11]

OK I looked it it...CSU has had a pretty tough road schedule which account for their poor road record. I'm keeping CSU -2.5 in my plays

I feel like a freaking politician going back and forth here

[Dbldown11]

alright that's it....time to finalize my plays....

All my plays for saturday are:

Michigan +20.5
Clemson -2.5
Colorado St. -2
Florida Atlantic +5.5
Duke +17
Utah -6.5
Florida Intl. -6.5
Oklahoma -7

[guru-t]

I like them all except for Michigan.Not that I like Ost,its just the fact that it's too close to call for me to touch.OH!I do like BYU.

[pags11]

great thread again this week dbldown...GL this week bud...

[Dbldown11]

well guru out of 10 games if we disagree on 2 that's not bad...good luck on all but BYU haha

Thanks again pags....hope we can finish these last few weeks on the + side.

[guru-t]

8 out of 10 kicks ass!Nice to see were on the same page.Back to ya!!!GL on all but UTAH!

[BamaBill67]

I agree with Mich +20.5......To big of a rival to cover that.

[nevadaside]

This thread is a much needed & nice addition to this forum, as so much of the worthless clutter on here is being mistaken for handicapping information.

Love CLEM this week.....they'll be on a mission to finish out on a positive note & certainly have the personnel to get it done. Pretty sure I'll be on CSU as well.

Loving STAN+9 (will buy to 10), WF-1, & really loving MISS+pts & ML. Looking at ARK too.

Thanks for your time Dbl............

[guru-t]

Hey dbldown!!!!Thoughts on Boise-Nevada????Interesting game here.

[Dbldown11]

Thanks for the input Bamabill and nevadaside. For what it's worth I was leaning WF -1, BC's defense can be pretty tough though which scared me off...I think Miss + the points and ML are good bets...I'm just not sure if LSU finally woke up the 4th quarter last week and will carry it over, so I'm staying away.
I also wanted to bet arkansas....just didnt have the balls haha.

[Dbldown11]

I wouldnt touch that game guru in terms of betting it...but it should be fun to watch, will probably be a high scoring affair

[Rixsaw]

Love them all except Pitt and Okla. BOL....

[guru-t]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

I wouldnt touch that game guru in terms of betting it...but it should be fun to watch, will probably be a high scoring affair

Thats what I came up with.Just wanted to see what you thought!!!Utah came up big tonight 79-60!!I'm now a whopping 2-0 inBball.HA HA-A little self-criticism there.NIU was nice too.Congrats.