[St. Andrew]

I believe Ball State will cover the 19.5 points.

I will answer the critics.

Will Ball State be "looking ahead"? Not likely since they lost to Miami last year. Also, they know that one loss kills any BCS hopes.

Will Ball State play sloppy and "assume'" this win against a weaker team? Not likely. Ball State is a disciplined team. They've gone two straight games without committing a single penalty.

If Ball State gets a big lead, will they take their foot off the gas or bring in subs? Not likely. They need huge margins of victory in order to seal a possible BCS berth. MOV is factored into computer rankings, not to mention public (i.e. polling) perception. Ball State is competing against Utah and Boise for a spot at the table.

Is there any reason to believe that Miami will make a great defensive effort and keep this close? None. The Redhawks have been outscored 91-38 in their last two games, have yet to win at home vs a conference opponent, and have given up season highs in yardage each of the last two games (944 total yards). This defense is only geting worse.

What about MiQuale Lewis's role?. He will run all over Miami all night. Last week, against the best rush defense in the conf, he ran for 119 yards and a TD. Now he gets to face a team that has allowed 521 rushing yards in their last two games.

What about Nate Davis's role?. Highlight reel.

Discuss Miami head coach Shane Montgomery. He's a lame-duck coach who will probably be fired. The last time Miami had three straight losing seasons they fired their head coach. (Tim Rose, 1989) He doesn't have fan support, don't expect a loud stadium tonight.

Motivation: this is a chance for Ball State to make another BCS audition in prime-time. Reps from several bowls will be at the game.

Miami 14
Ball State 36

[bypp]

Well you make a very good point. I doubted Ball State's ability to be a great team against Northern Illinois and paid for it.

[en11871]

SA,

Good points. Just wondering what you think of the weather. It looks like showers all day. Will that slow down Ball St passing game?

E

[Beat up the book]

Nice write up as allways St. Andrew.
What does Snoop Dog call rain? Drizzle!
Looks like its raining now in oxford,but it could slow down and stop
around 6 or 7.We will have to wait and see.

[St. Andrew]

Originally Posted by en11871

SA,

Good points. Just wondering what you think of the weather. It looks like showers all day. Will that slow down Ball St passing game?

E

The weather is listed as "few showers", which means intermittent. More importantly, the wind is listed at only 5 mph. Unless it's a steady downpour or high winds, I don't see the star Nate Davis being too affected. If he is affected, how much worse will it be for Miami's two INT-prone QBs? Bottom line is that I expect Ball State to dominate the ground game against M-OH just like Buffalo did.

It would be great for someone from Miami to chime in on what they are seeing outside.

[nick2060]

hopin this line goes to -21 but i doubt it will, im leanin towards the 20 point home dog

[St. Andrew]

Originally Posted by nick2060

hopin this line goes to -21 but i doubt it will, im leanin towards the 20 point home dog

I can understand why you're thinking this, and I would normally be inclined to agree.....except that Ball State is so well-coached and disciplined. Brady Hoke has these guys dialed-in right now.

Two other things I like: Miami got demolished in their last home game by Kent State 21-54. Kent State has a Sagarin rating of 130. Ball State's rating is 16. Put your fear aside and ask yourself, in your heart, what do you really think Ball State is going to do to this team based upon the evidence that we have available to us?

One more point: Miami is -10 in turnover margin this year, which is last in the MAC. In a hard-hitting primetime game that will possibly be played on a nasty field, who do you think is going to win the turnover battle?

[nick2060]

I don't think miami is going to win at all, i just think ball states defense isnt going to play as well as it did last week and miami is going to put up enough points to cover the spread, just my opinion and best luck to everybody who goes the other way

[spongerat]

so are we looking at an under 54 here? Miami can't score, Ball likes to run, and its going to be rainy.

[griffijf]

As far as Shane Montgomery, he's done, I don't know if Miami has the guts to fire a coach, but he has not implemented an effective strategy to get this team over the hump.

This is a defense that had their entire linebacking core up for the best linebacker award in the preseason. This is the same defense that allowed Kent St. to come into Oxford and Score 51 points.

Their QB situation is in shambles, and their running game is extremely weak. The best player on the Roster is the Punter. I am not fimilar with Ball St., but I do know that Miami is terrible.

As far as crowd, the Student section will be empty if we are losing by more than 10 points at halftime. Students use the logic that they can be warm in their dorms and watch the game on TV instead of actually braving the elements and care about the program.

I'm a student at Miami and their defense cannot stop our intramural flag football team. .

Take Ball St. minus any points that the book offers.

[St. Andrew]

Originally Posted by spongerat

so are we looking at an under 54 here? Miami can't score, Ball likes to run, and its going to be rainy.

Miami QB Belton has been ruled out for this game, he was the more effective QB than Radabaugh vs Buffalo last week. Radabaugh will throw at least two picks. I may have to find out if there is a prop bet available on that.

I don't see how Miami scores many points unless they get some special teams points. But I don't mess with totals in CFB.

ATS, Miami is 2-7 in their last nine conf games.

[St. Andrew]

Originally Posted by griffijf

As far as Shane Montgomery, he's done, I don't know if Miami has the guts to fire a coach, but he has not implemented an effective strategy to get this team over the hump.

This is a defense that had their entire linebacking core up for the best linebacker award in the preseason. This is the same defense that allowed Kent St. to come into Oxford and Score 51 points.

Their QB situation is in shambles, and their running game is extremely weak. The best player on the Roster is the Punter. I am not fimilar with Ball St., but I do know that Miami is terrible.

As far as crowd, the Student section will be empty if we are losing by more than 10 points at halftime. Students use the logic that they can be warm in their dorms and watch the game on TV instead of actually braving the elements and care about the program.

I'm a student at Miami and their defense cannot stop our intramural flag football team. .

Take Ball St. minus any points that the book offers.

If this is legitimate, dude thanks.

[griffijf]

Originally Posted by St. Andrew

If this is legitimate, dude thanks.

Yeah, it is legitimate. I try to stay away from betting my schools just because of rooting interest. I am not going to bet this game, however, I truly believe we are going to get run off the field.


The weather conditions will actually favor Miami. Its cold, windy, and rainy, and could be a factor, but at the end of the day, talent is usually what decides games.

[hawaii808]

Originally Posted by nick2060

hopin this line goes to -21 but i doubt it will, im leanin towards the 20 point home dog

same here

[St. Andrew]

My final thought on this game before it kicks off:

If you're taking Miami +19 or whatever, you're basically assuming Miami to do something they haven't done all year, which is to hang close against a solid team. The QB that played in Miami's win over Bowling Green is not playing tonight. So you're basically picking a team to cover whose only victory is against Charleston Southern.

Meanwhile, Ball St has already proven --repeatedly-- that they can and will blow a team off the field by more than 20. Unless your hopes are pinned on weather, why would anyone take the unproven factor over the proven factor? Doesn't make sense.

[nick2060]

i dont think 20 points is hanging close, but thats just my opinion

[tbond10]

I posted this in another thread but I think this is a perfect game to tease (and I don't EVER tease). The line NOW teased would be Ball st -12 under 60. I got it at -12.5 under 60.5. Thoughts?

[St. Andrew]

Originally Posted by tbond10

I posted this in another thread but I think this is a perfect game to tease (and I don't EVER tease). The line NOW teased would be Ball st -12 under 60. I got it at -12.5 under 60.5. Thoughts?

I literally believe Ball State could throw up 48 tonight if Miami is uninspired. It depends how motivated Miami is to play defense. Tha tease is probably a winner, but how can anyone trust Miami?

[tbond10]

Originally Posted by St. Andrew

I literally believe Ball State could throw up 48 tonight if Miami is uninspired. It depends how motivated Miami is to play defense. Tha tease is probably a winner, but how can anyone trust Miami?

Well, I'm looking for the weather to keep a few points off the board. I actually bet ball st -19, under 54.5 and that tease -12 under 60... line is STILL moving though... I'm actually not a huge fan of betting this game at all so all of those bets are .5 unit, but I'm ****ed up and works got me stressed today so I wanted SOME action of the gambling sort

[SportNut]

Hope you're right St. Andrew, I got the Ball St. and the over. Before checking your post, of course.

[St. Andrew]

Originally Posted by SportNut

Hope you're right St. Andrew, I got the Ball St. and the over.

Enjoy the 2H. I have faith that Ball State is a BCS-caliber team.

[St. Andrew]

Originally Posted by St. Andrew

Enjoy the 2H. I have faith that Ball State is a BCS-caliber team.

i think they are better than Utah and Boise

[carrenzo]

Originally Posted by St. Andrew

i think they are better than Utah and Boise

Do you want to retract that statement after that game?

[St. Andrew]

Originally Posted by carrenzo

Do you want to retract that statement after that game?

No, they went on the road and won by 15. Like I said, Ball State was one yard from an extra TD in the first quarter. Shit happens.

[luffy]

Originally Posted by St. Andrew

No, they went on the road and won by 15. Like I said, Ball State was one yard from an extra TD in the first quarter. Shit happens.

Yeah, just like how the cardinals were almost able to cover +10 yesterday. Yes Yes, its getting old.