[Dbldown11]

Alright I posted some initial leans earlier, but I'm really trying to break down every game. I feel like sometimes I dont even give some games a look, when they may be offering a lot of value that I never see. So basically I have broken down every single game on Saturday and I have placed it into one of three categories. The first being teams I think are receiving too many points, the second being teams that are not giving up enough points, and the third being games where the line is about right, or games where I see no edge. Note that I am not making plays on them all, I will break down each game in one of the first two categories even more, as the week goes on, until I reach my final plays. So here it is:


Getting too many points(underdog):

• Purdue + 15 @ Iowa
• Northwestern +3.5 @ Michigan
• Duke +10.5 @ Clemson
• Rutgers +7.5 @ South Florida
• UL Monroe +21.5 @Mississippi
• Minnesota +13 @ Wisconsin
• Maryland +3 vs. North Carolina
• Air Force +4 vs. BYU
• South Carolina +21 @ Florida
• Texas A&M +8 @ Baylor
• New Mexico St. +15 @ Fresno St.
• Vanderbilt +4.5 @ Kentucky
• UCF +7.5 @ Marshall


Giving up too few points(favorite):

• Ohio St. -10 @ Illinois
• Texas -13.5 @ Kansas
• Colorado St. -1 vs. New Mexico
• Wake Forest -4 @ N.C. State
• Nebraska -7 @ Kansas St.
• UL Lafayette -2.5 @ Fl. Atlantic
• Missouri -26.5 @ Iowa St.
• UCONN -10 @ Syracuse
• Alabama -19.5 vs. Mississippi St.
• Tulsa -5.5 @ Houston
• Utah -28.5 @ San Diego St.


Lines right (no play):

• Indiana @ Penn St.
• Notre Dame @ Navy
• Georgia @ Auburn
• Middle Tenn. St. @ Western KY.
• Toledo @ Western Michigan
• Utah St. @ Louisiana Tech
• ECU @ So. Mississippi
• UAB @ Tulane
• California @ Oregon St.
• San Jose St. @ Nevada
• Boise St. @ Nevada
• Washington St. @ Arizona St.
• Arizona @ Oregon
• USC @ Stanford
• Oklahoma St. @ Colorado
• Boston College @ Florida St.
• Troy @ LSU
• SMU @ UTEP
• UCLA @ Washington

[Dbldown11]

Time to widdle down the list.......

I am only going to bet the underdogs that I think have a legitimate chance to win straight up....so here are the teams from that list that I'll be playing as dogs. They are getting points....and they may not even need em:

Northwestern
Duke
Rutgers
Maryland
Air Force

I have removed A&M and Vanderbilt....(trying to keep it safe)

[Dbldown11]

I need some thoughts on how to narrow down the list of favorites.

Basically I am trying to keep this simple. I created the initial lists by looking at each game and each team, the previous scores in their games, and the competition they faced for those games.

Then I narrowed down the list of dogs in a very simple way....if I thought the dog was not only getting too many points, but could actually win straight up they were the pick, otherwise they are out.

What can I look at to narrow down the list of favorites though???? Something fairly simple....Any ideas?

[Dbldown11]

Im having a hard time here with this......Im thinking out of the list of favorites I have, I'll average the points scored by the favorite with the average points allowed by the underdog to get figure A.

Then I will average the points scored by the underdog with the points allowed by the favorite to get figure B...

And for the games where A > B by at least the amount of the spread those are the games I will keep.

Now obviously capping all games this way is stupid, however since I've already narrowed these games down as games where the team favored isnt favored by enough this may work.

[Dbldown11]

For Example: Ohio St. averages 26.6 points per game and Illinois gives up an average of 26.2 points per game. That averages out to 26.4

Illinois averages 31.4 pts/game and Ohio st. gives up an average of 13....that averages out to 22.2

The difference is 4.2 and since that is less than the 10 points Ohio St. is favored by it's a no play

[Dbldown11]

Alright scratch that.....none of the first 4 games I ran through would work...I'm not sure that any would...Back to the drawing board haha

[Dbldown11]

My favorites are gonna be Texas, Missouri, Alabama, and Tulsa.....I may make a change, but for now that's what I'm looking at


So all in all the lines I'm looking at are:

Northwestern+3.5
Duke+10.5
Rutgers+7.5
Maryland+3
Air Force+4
Texas-13.5
Missouri-26.5
Alabama-19.5
Tulsa-5.5

[Dbldown11]

kind of odd....but I just went to update the current lines for the 9 games that I have picked and not a single one of these lines has moved one way or the other

[spongerat]

interesting process, i am going to tail whatever final list you come up with. I like the process you're going through and several of the games I like are on it. GL

[pags11]

excellent thread...very much what I do every week when sifting through the card for plays...first try to eliminate game I know I won't be playing and go from there...good work dbldown...

[manny24]

nice work doubled. college ball is a blast. glad to see your having a good time. just taking a quick look through your plays and think rutgers is going to have a real problem at s. fla. and from your non-plays i like georgia to win a tough game at auburn. gl2u boss.

[Dbldown11]

thanks spongerat i hope we can do well this week.

Thanks Pags11 you're opinion is greatly appreciated and if I do my capping anywhere near the way you do yours I'm more comfortable haha.

Manny thanks for the insight, I just think Rutgers has played really well as of late, and South Florida hasnt done much this year in my eyes, so getting more than a TD I like it. I was leaning towards Georgia as well, but when I thought about it I remembered that I wasnt looking at games and deciding whether or not they could cover it, I was looking for value in lines, and when it came down to it...I thought the line in that game was about right based on how each team has been playing. GL to you as well this week

[manny24]

yeah, when i said georgia would win- i meant they would cover the 8.5. i didn't make that clear. rock out!

[Cougar Bait]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

My favorites are gonna be Texas, Missouri, Alabama, and Tulsa.....I may make a change, but for now that's what I'm looking at


So all in all the lines I'm looking at are:

Northwestern+3.5
Duke+10.5
Rutgers+7.5
Maryland+3
Air Force+4
Texas-13.5
Missouri-26.5
Alabama-19.5
Tulsa-5.5

So far the only games I don't like are Missouri and Alabama. Not saying they can't cover, just feel more comfortable with the other plays. And Tulsa was a game I was looking at playing. GL and I'll be interested to see how you do!

[jtuck]

I'd watch out for Bama and Texas. Not saying public is never right, but 68% on Bama and line has moved down, 81% on Texas and the line has dropped too. Just something to think about.

[Dbldown11]

yeah jtuck and cougar i agree i usually dont like big favorites, however missouri is playing to get into the BIG12 championship and Iowa St. blows, so I think youll see something very similar to what Missouri did to Colorado.

As for Texas they are also playing for a spot in that championship and kansas has no defense, texas has a below average defense as well, but a way better offense than kansas.

And as far as alabama is concerned tennessee blew Mississippi St. out of the water at home. Mississippi St. is just a HORRIBLE team on the road. They lost bad to louisiana tech on the road. I'm not sure they will be able to score in this game which is why I like Bama.

I appreciate both your insights and thoughts though...Good luck this week

[casper]

I am going up to Corvallis for the Cal at Oregon State game.

Cal offense is a mess. OSU bit Cal on the ass last year in that thriller if you remember. Cal can't figure a way lately to get the ball to explosive Jahvid Best. That game started Cal's tumble into the abyss last season.

Cal has yet to win on the road this year. Atrocious losses at Maryland and more recently at Arizona.

If I had to pick this game I woud just say Beavers straight up. Alas, I am a Cal fan and will be with Cal relatives so I won't touch the game.

Anyone been watching the Beavers lately?

[pags11]

casper,

yeah, I've watched OSU about six times so far this season...they don't seem to be playing with the same explosiveness they were earlier in the season...QB Moveao sp? is not going to start this game and third WR Morales is questionable for the game...OSU does play well at home, but I can't get out of my head how competitive Cal's been the past month...as much as I want to find more reasons to play OSU here, I can't pull the trigger and will be on the sidelines for this one...hope this helps...

[Dbldown11]

I looked at this game as well casper, and at a pickem I would take Oregon St.

But once again this week I am betting game strictly where I find value in the lines, and I came to the conclusion that OSU-3 was the right line.

Thanks for your insight too pags

[Dbldown11]

Northwestern+3.5
Rutgers+7.5
Maryland+3
Air Force+4
Texas-13.5
Missouri-26.5
Alabama-19.5
Tulsa-5.5

updated plays....I have removed Duke. I think they are getting too many points based on how each team has played this season, but on the road at clemson just scares me. I'm trying to keep my plays safe, and that doesnt qualify as safe to me

[pags11]

no problem dbldown...I feel the same way about the Duke vs. Clemson game...good analysis...

[Cougar Bait]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

Northwestern+3.5
Rutgers+7.5
Maryland+3
Air Force+4
Texas-13.5
Missouri-26.5
Alabama-19.5
Tulsa-5.5

updated plays....I have removed Duke. I think they are getting too many points based on how each team has played this season, but on the road at clemson just scares me. I'm trying to keep my plays safe, and that doesnt qualify as safe to me

I think you're gonna have a good week. Especially since I'm already on 3 of these plays. Boy, Northwestern sure is more tempting at +3.5 than it was at +2.5!!

[spongerat]

i like your list except missouri if Iowa St can put some point up it'll be hard to cover. and Alabama probably will cover but i'm not as confident enough in that one now that its over 21. love the rest of them though

[spongerat]

i like tulsa first half against Houston, dunno what the line is, but houston has consistently shown they are a strong second half team that may or may not show up in the first half, while tulsa should outscore them in this shootout overall but they have no problem putting up points at any point in the game.

[johnnymapalo]

Why have I seen some top cappers on Maryland. What have Maryland done all year for you to bet them. Virginia blew out Maryland 31-0 in Maryland earlier this year. Maryland has been getting their a$$es kicked all year. I think North Carolina -2.5 is a blessing. Maryland is gonna get humiliated and those Maryland bets are gonna sting...

[spongerat]

found it, tulsa -2.5 1st half, on it for several units

[WestsidePete]

Interesting thread...and some updates on a few of the lines

Purdue +18.5
NorthWestern +4
Texas -13
Tulsa -4.5
Rutgers +8

[WestsidePete]

I'm on the following
Texas -13
Tulsa -4
Stanford +24.5
Rutgers +8

3 team teaser
Texas -3
Boston College +17
Purdue +28.5

2 team teaser
Ohio St -2.5
Navy +11

Good job Dbldown on the thread and GL everyone this weekend

[pags11]

interesting logic johnnymapalo...

[laxdjock]

Originally Posted by spongerat

i like your list except missouri if Iowa St can put some point up it'll be hard to cover.

I play Mizz on Q's and H's typically...as they float around 21-28 pt favorites. You may want to check those lines out.

[spongerat]

is there a specific q or h you're looking at? or just try and guess?

[Dbldown11]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

Northwestern+3.5
Rutgers+7.5
Maryland+3
Air Force+4
Texas-13.5
Missouri-26.5
Alabama-19.5
Tulsa-5.5

updated plays....I have removed Duke. I think they are getting too many points based on how each team has played this season, but on the road at clemson just scares me. I'm trying to keep my plays safe, and that doesnt qualify as safe to me

3-0 so far....so good

[Dbldown11]

If maryland and air force can keep this up in the 2nd half it'll be a 5-0 start which would guarantee a winning weekend regardless of those last three games....That would make watching those last three MUCH less stressfull haha

[Dbldown11]

well air force must have taken some sleeping pills at halftime...not quite sure how they came out and laid such an egg there to start the 2nd half, but oh well.

4-1 so far on the day, two big favorites and one small favorite to finish off the night, I'd hope at least one can cover to make it a winning afternoon, but the worst I can do now is 4-4

[Dbldown11]

I'm adding UCONN -10....I know the dreaded REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT should scare me.........but it doesnt scare me nearly as much as the rushing attack of UCONN should scare Cuse

Oh yeah and I think "reverse line movement" will kill sports bettors as much if not more than looking at past ATS "trends"