[Dbldown11]

Wed. night will involve an "upset" with NIU beating Ball St. on the road. Ball St. is one of the most overrated teas in the nation being ranked 16th....Let's look at the facts:

Ball St.'s opponents have a combined record of 23-47. Their best win was a 12 point victory at home to Navy, but that's not all that impressive. People started talking about Ball St. after they beat up Indiana on the road, but Indiana is horrible and lost at home to Central Michigan yesterday.

NIU is a very solid team that is at least as good as Ball St. and in my opinion better. NIU has a record of 5-3, but lets look at their losses.... They lost the first game of the season on the road to a 7-2 Minnesota team. They lost that game by 4 points and NIU led in that game by 3 with less than a minute to go. They lost the next week by 3 points on the road to a 7-2 Western Michigan team, and NIU played that game with their 2nd string QB. Their 3rd loss was on the road to Tennessee in a 13-9 defeat. I dont care how Tennessee has played this year, for a MAC team to go on the road to the SEC and lose by 4 points and hold their opponent to 13 that's impressive. AND in that game NIU played the entire 2nd half with their 3rd string QB.

Basically these teams are AT WORST equals, and I think NIU is actually better. The three teams that NIU lost to are all better than any team Ball St. has even played this year.

Take it for what it's worth, but I'm looking forward to laying a nice amount of cash on NIU moneyline, and making a nice cash wed. night

[Dbldown11]

Alright I just saw the opening line here....Even if you dont think NIU has what it takes to beat Ball St. straight up PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do yourselves a favor and take NIU +9.5
That line is so overinflated I can't even explain it HAHA. Vegas is counting on the general public to look at Ball St. ranked 16th in the nation playing at home against an unkown NIU team, and they expect the general public to pound this line in favor of Ball St. That is frankly waaaaaay too many points to give up here. I mean for gods sakes NIU's 3 losses are by a combined 11 points but somehow they are getting 9.5 in this game???? WTF

if you like money you'll take NIU +9.5 and put at least a small amount on NIU moneyline

[johnnymapalo]

yes, Ball State doesn't impress me too much. I will have to look at this some more before I decide...

[Dbldown11]

Wow I'm looking at this a little more....The line oppened up as Ball St. -8 and has gone up to 9, some places to 9.5. Looks like people are jumping on Ball St. early just like I and Vegas had thought......Poor people, simply looking at the 16th ranking in the nation without taking the time to see that Ball St. has yet to play a good team.....I need to stop looking at this game, because I just want to keep betting more and more and more on NIU

[Dbldown11]

I'm curious here, I havnt placed a wager on this game yet. Does anyone have an opinion as to how much higher this game will go? Or do you think the line will drop? It started at 8 and is at 9 most places now, some at 9.5. How high will it go? Do I wait or bet it now?

[jtuck]

Wait for at least a 10 or even 10.5, if it goes back to a 9 or 8.5 bet it then. Not much of an advantage to getting at 9 compared to 8.5 but getting a ten would be much better. Pretty stoned but hopefully you get the idea of what i'm saying because i doubt it makes as much sense on here as it does in my head.

[Dbldown11]

haha I understand what your saying....u conveyed your message pretty clearly

[The Seer]

I agree. NIU is a quality team. I really like it at 10.

[Dbldown11]

I LOVE it at anything over 3 for gods sakes. Ball St. is completely unproven and NIU has 3 losses two to good team and one to an SEC team on the road for a combined 11 points, Ball St. is giving up close to that amount in this game alone???Please!!! NIU is healthy for this game, and Ball St. will be proven to be a pretender, and overrated.

[sweetpete57@]

I agree with NIU covering whole-heartedly. Ball St. hasn't played anyone good and even if they win, it'll be a close game. Just because Ball St.'s ranked, doesn't mean they're any good. I'll be putting a nice chunk on this one

[Dbldown11]

everywhere that had the line at -9 has now moved to -9.5

I said that this would happend, but I actually am a little surprised that the line has move a point and a half in favor of Ball St. already

[TOOLMAKER]

You can get +10 right now at betus.

[Dbldown11]

WOW -10!!! Am I an idiot and missing something here or what? What has Ball St. done this year to validate being a double digint favorite in this game? Can anyone think of anything?

[VegasDave]

You seem to be guilty of both overrating NIU and underrating Ball State, but that said, 9.5 is still a really good number.

[fiveteamer]

Guy is a homer, obviously, but makes some decent points. Has me considering a NIU tease...

[Dbldown11]

I should change my avatar I think.....People are gonna look at that and just think I'm a homer....

I dont usually place bets on the teams I root for unless I see a lot of value in them. The fact is if my Avatar wasnt an NIU Huskie and all you did was read my write up you would see that I'm not making this play because I'm a homer, I'm making it because it is absolutely the right play. But if you choose, then just think I'm a homer like I'm sure a lot of people do and keep bumping up that line for me.....just making my ML sweeter and sweeter

[Dbldown11]

I would like to make another point....Some people are going to see that in their last game NIU beat Bowling Green by only a field goal, and are going to take that to mean they arent very good.

I watched that game (something that most people did not) and here are the facts. If you look at the stats from that game you will see that both teams had almost no passing yards. That game was played with VERY high winds, making the passing game useless. neither team could pass the ball, and both defenses knew it. When you have to run the ball and the defense knows you have to run the ball then it isnt very hard to stop. Thus the very low scoring game, and thus the very small margin of victory

[BigD]

I starting to look at this game I know you feel strong on NIU. It's seems that NIU has a legit Defence and no O. I think Ball St. will score. The question is can NIU put up points

[Dbldown11]

I think NIU's offense is arguably as explosive and Ball St.s They are averaging 27.3 ppg. And that includes a 16 point game in the tough winds explained above, and 9 points in Tennesse against a pretty good tennessee defense (with their 3rd string QB playing the 2nd half).

NIU put up 27 @ Minnesota, 26 @ western Michigan, 48 to Indiana St (yes I know they are god aweful haha) 37 to Eastern Michigan (Ball St. scored 38 on them), and 38 to Toledo (Ball St. scored 31 against them).

So these teams are pretty comparable on offense in my opinion...although you could be right. I do think that NIU does have the edge on defense however.

[fiveteamer]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

I would like to make another point....Some people are going to see that in their last game NIU beat Bowling Green by only a field goal, and are going to take that to mean they arent very good.

I watched that game (something that most people did not) and here are the facts. If you look at the stats from that game you will see that both teams had almost no passing yards. That game was played with VERY high winds, making the passing game useless. neither team could pass the ball, and both defenses knew it. When you have to run the ball and the defense knows you have to run the ball then it isnt very hard to stop. Thus the very low scoring game, and thus the very small margin of victory

Very good point.

[Dbldown11]

Thanks fiveteamer....also to point out in their low scoring game with small margin of victory against miami of ohio they were playing with their 3rd string QB for most of that game as well as their 1st stringer got hurt, and their 2nd stringer was already hurt. Their red shirt freshman QB that will be a star in the MAC is going to be healthy and playing in this game wed. just another FYI

[Dbldown11]

the ML is posted for this game and NIU is +300....It's a beautiful things boys and girls. I'm actually going to sit on this and wait for a little while as this line has gone up and probably will continue. I will make my wager early on Wed. however as I think you will start to see this line drop sharply before kickoff as sharps will jump all over NIU

[regularguy]

Sometimes homers can be good sources of information about their teams -- especially regarding teams, like NIU, not so well known nationally. This is one of those cases.

This is a good thread, Dbldown11. Whether it hits or not, you got me looking into it. NIU looks like a solid pick here, with the 10 points.

[Dbldown11]

thanks regularguy...haha thats what I said before. Just because you bet on the team you cheer for does not neccessarily make it a homer play....It could just be the right play! And I think I've given more than enough evidence to show that it's more than a homer call haha

[regularguy]

Here are the points Northern Illinois has given up in their last six games: 3, 0, 13, 13, 7, 13. That's an average of 8.1. They are 9th in the nation in points per game allowed. That makes for a good dog.

[Crayzee]

thank you for all your effort on this doubledown
it looks good
i will prob bet 1x ml
and 2x + points

good luck

hope you make a killing

[Dbldown11]

no problem crazee...Based on everything I've looked at I think the bet witht the points is as good a play as you will find, and the ML play should have a real good shot as well.

The last time I had this kind of feeling about a game was when I picked (on this site there is a record of it) Alabama to beat Georgia ML in Athens. I had the same feelings there, and overrated Georgia team against an underrated Bama team....Now dont get me wrong this game is obviously a little different, but not too different in my eyes

[WestsidePete]

I'm playing this game with Tuesday's Buffalo game on the following plays:

2 team 7 pt teaser -130
Buffalo U-1.5
NIU +16.5

parlay of Buffalo -6 with NIU +10.5 this pays +188

[Dbldown11]

I think that those are 2 very solid bets westside

[nick2060]

didn't read past the first few posts but 5dimes has the line at -10 -110, just made a wager on it now

[Dbldown11]

haha nick2060 I think there is some good info past the first few posts......But it all leads to the same conclusion anyway...NIU +10 is as solid as it gets.

[jackpot269]

OK Dd11, you have convinced me I will be making my biggest wager of the year!! I sure hope your right. Your not in sales are you? Anyways lets cash it in !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[etothep]

Originally Posted by jackpot269

OK Dd11, you have convinced me I will be making my biggest wager of the year!! I sure hope your right. Your not in sales are you? Anyways lets cash it in !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Haha, he sure does sound like a salesman

[Dbldown11]

haha nope, well now that's a lot of pressure on me....Let's cash big time boys!!!

[Deckstar]

NIU MONEYLINE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DBL im with u