SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks Recommended Books
1. Pinnacle Sports SBR Rating A+ Pinnacle Sports Review
2. The Greek Sports Book SBR Rating A+ The Greek Review
3. BookMaker SBR Rating A+ BookMaker Review
4. BetJamaica SBR Rating A+ BetJamaica Review
5. LegendZ Sports SBR Rating A+ LegendZ Review
SBR Posters' Poll - March 2009 View Complete Results
1. BetJamaica 251 total points BetJamaica Review
2. The Greek Sports Book 217 total points The Greek Review
3. 5Dimes 181 total points 5Dimes Review
4. Matchbook 159 total points Matchbook Review
5. Pinnacle Sports 148 total points Pinnacle Sports Review
Reply View New Posts
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 10-16-08, 05:53 PM   #1
BadBeatBodog
 
BadBeatBodog's Avatar
Joined: 06-05-08
Posts: 796
 
Default CFB reverse line movement plays

RLM seems to be coming up a lot on these boards recently so I went ahead and took note of all the plays that fit the criteria at the moment. Side percentage and lines from http://****************.com/bettracker.htm

Colorado State:23% | +23 => +22
Missouri:::::::::40% | +6.5 => +5
SD State::::::::33% | +14.5 => +14***
Baylor:::::::::::37% | +17.5 => +16
Boston College:42% | -2.5 => -3 (Not 40% or below but it moved onto 3 which I think is significant)***
South Carolina:30% | +3 => +2.5 (30% AND moved off 3?)***
SMU:::::::::::::34% | +14 => +13
TCU:::::::::::::30% | +1.5 => -2
Duke::::::::::::31% | +5.5 => +3
Syracuse:::::::39% | +25 => +24
Georgia:::::::::31% | -15.5 => -15***
USC:::::::::::::40% | -42 => -42.5***

Question to those smarter than me: does it have to be less than or equal to 40% AND at least a one point move? If so Georgia, USC, SD St, BC, and SC don't qualify but I would argue BC and SC would fit because they moved onto and off the three, respectively.

Edit #2: Turns out those five teams don't qualify, but because SC has only 30% and the .5 point move was onto three (which is significant, obviously) I like it as a pseudo-RLM play. Helps that I like SC in the matchup, anyway.
__________________
"Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"

Last edited by BadBeatBodog; 10-16-08 at 06:05 PM..
Reply With Quote Multi-Quote This Message Quick reply to this message
Old 10-16-08, 05:55 PM   #2
roasthawg
 
roasthawg's Avatar
Joined: 11-09-07
Posts: 1,336
 
Default

I'm on SDSU even though they killed me last week. The rest are no plays for me.
__________________
http://roasthawg.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/
All bets at -110 odds for 1 unit each and posted in the best bets threads.

NFL 2008: 98-70-2 +21.0 Units

CFB 2008: 56-52-4 -1.3 Units
NBA'08-'09: 331-294-8 +8.4 Units
Reply With Quote Multi-Quote This Message Quick reply to this message
Old 10-16-08, 05:56 PM   #3
Masu485
 
Masu485's Avatar
Joined: 08-14-08
Posts: 1,068
 
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
RLM seems to be coming up a lot on these boards recently so I went ahead and took note of all the plays that fit the criteria at the moment. Side percentage and lines from http://****************.com/bettracker.htm:

Colorado State:23% | +23 => +22
Missouri:::::::::40% | +6.5 => +5
SD State::::::::33% | +14.5 => +14
Baylor:::::::::::37% | +17.5 => +16
Boston College:42% | -2.5 => -3 (Not 40% or below but it moved onto 3 which I think is significant)
South Carolina:30% | +3 => +2.5 (30% AND moved off 3?)
SMU:::::::::::::34% | +14 => +13
TCU:::::::::::::30% | +1.5 => -2
Duke::::::::::::31% | +5.5 => +3
Syracuse:::::::39% | +25 => +24
Georgia:::::::::31% | -15.5 => -15
USC:::::::::::::40% | -42 => -42.5
thanks a lot, i'm also trying out wagering based on reverse line movements tonight, on TCU.

is it possible you could maybe do the same for NHL, becasue i can't really find a reliable place to get the info. sports dotcom doesn't seem to have it, and vegas insider's current lines seem to add 20 cents vig, so i don't really know.
Reply With Quote Multi-Quote This Message Quick reply to this message
Old 10-16-08, 06:00 PM   #4
Masu485
 
Masu485's Avatar
Joined: 08-14-08
Posts: 1,068
 
Default

and also, i wouldn't play a game unless there was a full point move AND at least 60% action on one side.
Reply With Quote Multi-Quote This Message Quick reply to this message
Old 10-16-08, 06:01 PM   #5
BadBeatBodog
 
BadBeatBodog's Avatar
Joined: 06-05-08
Posts: 796
 
Default

Anyone that missed the edit I made to the original post take note because some of the plays I posted might not actually be RLM.

Masu look at the website I gave in the original post http://****************.com/bettracker.htm

Edit: Thanks for the info about RLM requirements Masu
__________________
"Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
Reply With Quote Multi-Quote This Message Quick reply to this message
Old 10-16-08, 06:13 PM   #6
Masu485
 
Masu485's Avatar
Joined: 08-14-08
Posts: 1,068
 
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog View Post
Anyone that missed the edit I made to the original post take note because some of the plays I posted might not actually be RLM.

Masu look at the website I gave in the original post http://****************.com/bettracker.htm

Edit: Thanks for the info about RLM requirements Masu
thanks a lot, one stupid question though. in the pie chart, the red represents the away team, right? and blue the home team?
Reply With Quote Multi-Quote This Message Quick reply to this message
Old 10-16-08, 06:15 PM   #7
BadBeatBodog
 
BadBeatBodog's Avatar
Joined: 06-05-08
Posts: 796
 
Default

lol I had the same exact problem the first time using this. You are correct.
__________________
"Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
Reply With Quote Multi-Quote This Message Quick reply to this message
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:28 PM.


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33