NCAAF lines that jump out at me right away

BuddyBear · 09-12-2005, 01:22 PM

well just looked over the lines from yesterday and two games jump out at me right away.

1. Wisc/UNC +3.5. Line has already shifted to +3 on most books but I already placed it at Canbet...went to down to +3 less than five minutes later. Public already huge on UW. Sorry i have to be against my alma mater this time.

2. Purdue/Arizona +8. This looks as good as any game on the board Saturday. Arizona is better. Revenge game and we all saw what Arizona nearly did to UW last year in Tuscon. Some books have this at +7.5 Pinny is running them at +8 (-107). I am going to wait too see what happens with line movement here. There really is no difference between +7.5 and +8 since 7 is a much more frequent difference than 8 but if i can get 8 I'll take it.

Anyone else have any early thoughts?

Razz · 09-12-2005, 02:32 PM

Those were two that jumped out at me as well. Also, I thought BC would be closer to 3 (opened FSU 1, now BC 1), and thought AZ St and Wake would be bigger favorites. But the most surprising to me was that Tulane is favored over Mississippi St on a neutral field. Mississippi St beat them 28-7 last year, and have only improved.

jjgold · 09-12-2005, 02:43 PM

Oklahoma +7 jumped out at me. UCLA cannot be that good

hoppa_long · 09-12-2005, 02:46 PM

jj u have aol ?

why · 09-12-2005, 03:26 PM

UNC +3 and Arizona +7 1/2 now.

BuddyBear · 09-12-2005, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjgold

Oklahoma +7 jumped out at me. UCLA cannot be that good

JJ this is w/o a doubt a trap. The line looks too good to be true. I may not bet it but if it gets down to the magic -6.5 I probably will look at it very closely. Everyone should be on OU for this game as the public will drive the line in UCLA's favor. It's been forever since OU has been this big of a dog.

Sharp bettors will be all over UCLA.

This should remind people of the TXAM/Utah game last year where Utah opened up as -8.5 and everyone was on TXAM b/c of the name and high profile of the team. Needless to say Utah won by 20 as all the sharps went straight to the bank afterwards.

Don't fall for the trap here.

bookie · 09-12-2005, 04:53 PM

It's beyond me why South Florida would be more than a field goal to Central Florida, and they're -9. I guess USF didn't disgrace themselves versus Penn State but PSU isn't gonna open a margin on anybody and I think that false good showing is creating tremendous value here.