[ackem19]

After browsing through several forums and participating on this one, I've noticed a lot of cappers talking about their systems or math models being the reason for their picks. I was just curious how many of you use systems when capping as opposed to just analyzing the matchup (ie, coaching, injuries, trends, home/away, tendencies, etc.). Please give your vote for what you use for COLLEGE FOOTBALL ONLY. I personally just analyze the matchups but for NBA, I use systems. What about you guys?

[the shadow]

I think just plain simple handicapping works the best. No, i'm not going to bet a game because they are 17-0 on sunday when the temperature is between 60 and 70 degrees. So my answer is : analyze the matchup!!!

[THE PROFIT]

I use both. Systems are better in the NFL as they are more predictable, some teams just own certain situations

[nj1035]

I just watch the games and make an educated guess, but then again I'm not a pro....it's just for fun.

However, one thing I can say in general is that I tend to be on teams that underperformed or overperformed significantly the week before. That is to say, if the Saints are 11-0 and lose in the 12th week, I'll probably take them the next week, just because I think people tend to overreact over 1 game rather than looking at the entire season. And I think that affects certain lines.

[laxdjock]

I've built some stats models, though I used limited data sets for various NFL players. I did quite well on my prop bets, as most of my models had to do with O/U passing, throwing, and receiving yardage. I'm not sure they'd translate to NCAA football, but I'm going to gather some data and see.

[daprospecta]

I would say both. If you analysis the game and the system is agreeing with you then that's all the better. I would lean more towards analytical than anything though.

[kiknit]

Speaking of...I was going back through some old posts and found the references to the Sagarin Ratings - obviously there is no "Predictor" for Week 1 -but is anyone still using this system?

[the shadow]

Yes, there is a predictor for week 1. He basically uses last years stats. Found most of the lines close to sagarin, but there were a couple way off the mark. Col. favored over CSU by 3 for instance.

[the shadow]

Correction, Colorado by 1.

[kiknit]

Hey Shadow - I went back to the ratings for this week and youre right, a lot of the spreads were pretty close. But some are waaay off, like the UAB vs Florida Atlantic (a game I was already watching). Difference between the two is 0.85 in favor of UAB but the spread is 15. I think Im gonna toss those ratings into a sheet and keep track of the spreads and results for a couple weeks to see if the "Sagarin SOS System" still has something to it.