Harry's week #1 college "total package"

08-30-10 11:44 PM

Boyz,

Last year I made some pretty good coin playing college totals, going 44-24 on the season. Hoping to keep that up again this season. Gonna start off the season with two plays on Thursday night. I will be back later in the week with the rest of my card.....

OHIO STATE/MARSHALL - UNDER 47-

Fully realize that Ohio State QB Pryor has his goals set on a Heisman, but history shows that the Buckeyes have stumbled out of the gate the past few seasons. I anticipate a relatively easy victory against the Thundering Herd but my guess is that Coach Tressel is going to keep the game plan rather simple in this one. With the huge matchup against the Hurricanes of Miami on deck there's need to show too much of his hand here. Against this staunch Buckeye D, I don't see Marshall scoring more than a FG, perhaps a TD. There will be no fireworks in this one, and the game stays comfortably under. Say, 35-3.

UAB/FLORIDA ATLANTIC - OVER 51

Plenty of losses for both of these squads on the offensive side of the ball. UAB graduated their prolific QB Webb and Schnellenberger's boys are breaking in an entirely new offensive line......however, both of these defenses are weak and the last two meetings between these squads totalled 85 and 83 points. I don't see this game matching those high numbers but it should go into the mid-60s. Go north, about 41-24.

As always, best of luck.
Harry

Raiderpug · 08-31-10 12:00 AM

Best of Luck Harry!

Hawk007 · 08-31-10 12:38 AM

Good luck, I remember you doing quite well last year....

JMUplayer · 08-31-10 08:57 AM

Under on the OSU/Marshall is pretty dead on... I in no way see a shootout and tressell usually doesn't run up the score on inferior opponents.

Mike9999 · 08-31-10 10:57 AM

BOL Harry

Pushkin · 08-31-10 03:26 PM

Originally Posted by Harry N. Lloyd

Boyz, Last year I made some pretty good coin playing college totals, going 44-24 on the season. Hoping to keep that up again this season. Gonna start off the season with two plays on Thursday night. I will be back later in the week with the rest of my card..... OHIO STATE/MARSHALL - UNDER 47- Fully realize that Ohio State QB Pryor has his goals set on a Heisman, but history shows that the Buckeyes have stumbled out of the gate the past few seasons. I anticipate a relatively easy victory against the Thundering Herd but my guess is that Coach Tressel is going to keep the game plan rather simple in this one. With the huge matchup against the Hurricanes of Miami on deck there's need to show too much of his hand here. Against this staunch Buckeye D, I don't see Marshall scoring more than a FG, perhaps a TD. There will be no fireworks in this one, and the game stays comfortably under. Say, 35-3. UAB/FLORIDA ATLANTIC - OVER 51 Plenty of losses for both of these squads on the offensive side of the ball. UAB graduated their prolific QB Webb and Schnellenberger's boys are breaking in an entirely new offensive line......however, both of these defenses are weak and the last two meetings between these squads totalled 85 and 83 points. I don't see this game matching those high numbers but it should go into the mid-60s. Go north, about 41-24. As always, best of luck. Harry

Defences out strip the watered down offences on both sides of the ball. Got a nice write up at Dual Threat sports "free picks".....I like the under 52

BOL to all

08-31-10 06:57 PM

like Marshall/OSU under. nice write-up. the game prior to the big out-of-conf game, every year, Tressel tries to get the game over in like 2 1/2 hours. BOL to you this weekend.

bypp · 08-31-10 08:12 PM

I remembering tailing you on some damn good totals picks last year, and like hearing your insight. I'm liking the look of the Ohio St. pick this week. Best of luck.

TheGambler · 08-31-10 09:28 PM

great to see you back Harry and looking forward to following you again!!

09-01-10 06:56 PM

Boyz, I try to be judicious and play a maximum of 5-7 over/unders per week....so I'm surprised at myself for going to the wagering window for three games on the opening Thursday night of the season. But, according to my numbers, that's where the value is. I'll post more later, but Play #3 for me is.....

IOWA STATE/NORTHERN ILLINOIS - UNDER 51

The Huskie's had the MAC conference's top-rated D last year (which ain't saying much, but they were still top 25 nationally) and they're returning 8 players on defense. The Cyclones meanwhile only averaged 19 ppg last season, and I don't see any reason why that number should change significantly any time soon. RB Alex Robinson will be the best player on the field, so Iowa State will attempt to inflict their damage on the ground. They may not move the rock as easily as they want. I envision this one as being a hard-fought battle and the total points ending up somewhere around 40. The total opened at 46 and, though tempting, I was willing to pass. But it has crept up all week and is currently at 51. Be forewarned, the word in the service forum is some tout named RAS released this game as an "over" play when it was at 47 or 48. Apparently this guy has the swagger to move the line a full field goal. If you know anything about touts, you know they ain't always right. At this price, my program is sending me strong "buy" signals on the under.

As always, best of luck.
Harry

dee_jas · 09-02-10 02:20 PM

good luck dude

GGPLAYER · 09-02-10 02:42 PM

Glad to see you back. Totally remember your thread and success last year.

09-02-10 03:18 PM

good luck on the under in ohio st good luck this year!

BigJ · 09-02-10 05:00 PM

Good luck with the "total package". I will be watching.

jasDace · 09-02-10 05:35 PM

Good luck this season!!!!!

vyomguy · 09-02-10 07:06 PM

Good luck

TheGambler · 09-02-10 10:25 PM

2-1 Harry to start the season. I'll take that all day long. I'm with you on your college sides as well. good luck brother!

09-02-10 10:35 PM

Well, the first three plays have gone to final and I'm happy to report I turned a profit, going 2-1. The rest of my total plays for week #1 are as follows.....

COLORADO STATE/COLORADO - OVER 46-

Last year the Rams gave up a hefty 30 ppg. The Buffs finished their season with a bit of offensive momentum. The turning point was when Coach Hawkins benched his own kid Cody and started Tyler Hansen. This year Hansen is one of ten offensive starters returning. I'm guessing Colorado puts up about 35 points in this one. Being that this is a fierce instate Rivalry and 8 out of the last 10 games in the series have been decided by less than a TD, I gotta believe that State counter-punches enough to send this game well into the 50s.

(Double Play) MICHIGAN/UCONN - OVER 54 (Double Play)

I'm expecting beleagured Coach Rod' of Michigan to put the pedal to the medal in this one. Michigan will move the ball with ease and force the Huskie's to play catch-up. I look for the Wolverines to impress here and start the season on a big upnote. The Huskies will not go easily and this game goes into the 60s.

EASTERN MICHIGAN/ARMY - OVER 42

Eastern Michigan had the nation's worst run defense last season. Army, meanwhile, had the 12th best rushing offense in the country. This year they bring back 8 offensive starters, including their QB. My guess is that triple option will be a bit too much for the E. Mich Eagles to handle. The Black Knights will grab the lead, then the Eagles will be forced to play catch-up. A slow clock makes for a long game.....and this one goes north of the modest number.

KANSAS STATE/UCLA - OVER 45

Last year the Bruins offense played like they were wearing ski boots. This spring Neuheisel and offensive coordinator Chow worked almost entirely on spicing up their attack. They're calling their new invention the "Pistol Offense". Remains to be seen whether or not the pistol is a derringer or a magnum. The good news this week was that soph QB Prince appears healthy and ready to go. The UCLA defense looks like it could be in for a long day. Six out of the front seven have graduated. That's bad news against a Kansas State offense returning its top RB (Thomas, over 5 ypc!) My numbers say that the Wildcats control the ground, the Bruins control the air, and both teams find the endzone. Go over.

I guess I'm going "contrary" to the theory about defenses being stronger than offenses in Week 1. By my memory, defenses become more dominant later in the season (in part because of the weather.) Anyway......

As always, best of luck.
Harry

Raiderpug · 09-03-10 03:15 AM

2-1 Very nice, Sir!

fedtpels · 09-03-10 05:45 AM

looks good - let's kick this saturday off with a big win! great analysis so far harry. GL

09-03-10 06:16 AM

dumb and dumber rocks!

bypp · 09-03-10 08:04 AM

Very much with you on the UCLA over. Other ones are lookin good as well. GL

PeePee · 09-03-10 10:34 AM

I see you haven't lost that swagger from last yr...
Here to the cont. success...

MAB · 09-03-10 10:34 AM

Thanks for posting Harry! Good luck to all.

mmike032 · 09-03-10 04:41 PM

Rixsaw · 09-03-10 11:24 PM

Nice start sir. good luck w/ the rest of the card.

BUDDAH · 09-03-10 11:59 PM

I'm tailing!

TheGambler · 09-04-10 09:03 PM

Should have been a 3-1 day Harry but Michigan/Uconn decided not to do much 2nd half. 4-3 on the week still puts us in the black!! looking forward to next week's plays

Raiderpug · 09-05-10 02:52 AM

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Harry's week #1 college "total package"

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