[cowboyhater]

I've been tracking Jeff Sagarin against the spread for years and have found a scenario that produces a high percentage of winners. It has hit about 80% against the spread over the last 5 years. The plays don't come up too often, on average about 1 a week. The pick is if there is 10 point difference between what sagarin says vs what the spread is. But the kicker is the play has to be on a ROAD UNDERDOG. So far, it is 10-2(83%) this year. Here are the 12 plays so far this year. The amazing thing is that Syracuse over Louisville outright and Standford over USC outright were two of the twelve plays this year

Favorite Spread Underdog(BET ON) Hadv SagFav SagUnd SagResult Result
Texas Tech -13 Colorado 2.08 78.3 77.58 (10.20) W
Arizona -12.5 Stanford 2.93 69.69 70.3 (10.18) W
Hawaii -39.5 Utah State 2.93 79.09 53.23 (10.71) W
Southern California -40.5 Stanford 2.93 93.79 66.87 (10.65) W
Arizona State -12 Oregon State 2.93 81.92 83.97 (11.12) W
Pittsburgh -9.5 Connecticut 2.93 73.26 78.69 (12.00) W
BYU -11 Air Force 2.93 74.79 79.9 (13.18) W
Louisville -36.5 Syracuse 2.93 78.16 55.61 (11.02) W
New Mexico State -6.5 UTEP 2.93 56.03 71.14 (18.68) W
Michigan State -18.5 Bowling Green 2.93 78.62 74.01 (10.96) W
Southern California -14.5 Oregon State 2.28 80.44 79.72 (11.50) L
Hawaii -29 New Mexico State 2.08 75.09 59.44 (11.27) L

[cowboyhater]

Also, using this model, there is one game tomorrow that should be played.

Bet SMU +12.5 against Central Florida

[franckmtl]

SMU is playing home this weekend, so wheres the road dog in this game?