[EBone]

My power ratings yield:

Oregon by 5.5
Total: 55.5

I do like Oregon in this one. I still think that the Big 12, no matter what happens tonight in the Nebraska/Michigan game, is a relatively weak conference. Oklahoma is the 3rd best team in the conference behind Tex Tech and Texas. That's not saying much in my opinion.

I think motivation here is key. Yes, I think Stoops is a great coach but I think the Cal loss to Texas Tech last year in this same bowl has been played up so much in the media that Oregon should be well aware of this and should be able to handle this game with no letdown factor and be amped a bit to get some respect. The key for Oregon is keeping A. Peterson in check. That may be a difficult task for Oregon to handle. If they keep him under 150 on the ground, I say Oregon will cover. If not, the Sooners will win the game outright. I'll be betting that the motivation of being hosed by the BCS and the awareness of a non-letdown makes Oregon a winner. I'll be on Oregon tomorrow night.


E

[Illusion]

I am hammering the Sooners. I have had this game circled for a long time.

[Todd]

I'm with you Illusion, I'll be at the game and I'm going big on Oklahoma.

[pags11]

Oregon does not have senior QB Clemmons, they have some good skill position players for sure, but Oklahoma will take away the run and force the back-up QB's to try and beat them...OU's defense is healthy, as they are getting back one of their DE's lost at the beginning of the season...AP is finally fully healthy and Rhett Bomar has shown some signs of being descent...coaching edge to Stoops here vs. Belotti...still think Oregon's not real excited to be there...

[Razz]

Frankly, I think this game is going to be a blowout. Oklahoma would have been a 20 point favorite in the preseason - before Oregon lost their most effective offensive weapon, they are the much more excited team, and Bomar has improved very much in recent weeks. Oregon's special teams are horrendous, Stoops has a couple things up his sleeve, and most importantly of all, the Sooners have the second best running back in the country against a team that couldn't stop the run in the PAC 10. Big 12 3-0 ATS in bowl games, PAC 10 0-2. Oh yeah, the favorite last covered in the Holiday Bowl in 1997 - of course it's conceivable, though unlikely, that OU will close as the favorite.

E, do your power rankings deal with the season as the whole, or do they favor recent games? I look at the last five games more than the beginning of the season - I think this is especially important in this game, as Dixon and Leaf don't come close to Clemons, and Bomar's improvement combined with a healthy AD - and I had Oklahoma the favorite in this game.

[EBone]

Razz, it is a season long account so that may be why my ratings are skewed. Mine are only a straight average of 22 different ratings. Sometimes, I account for home field advantage for certain teams as well. Certainly doesn't apply to the Holiday Bowl, though. You may very well be right on this game.....certainly, the majority of the forum is with you on this game.

I, personally, just don't think much of Oklahoma. They may be wreaking havoc with my judgment on this game. I'm still going to bet Oregon in this game but I'll wait until gametime because, if you are correct about the line moving toward Oklahoma as a favorite, I can wait and get maximum value.


Nice to have you back, by the way, Razz......


E

[Razz]

I appreciate it E. I hope you, and everyone else, have had a nice holiday season, both in their life and in their gambling.
As far as the line moving down, when I said it was conceivable that OU would end up favored, I still mean that it is unlikely. I wouldn't wait to bet Oregon if you insist on doing so, because I can't see the public backing Oklahoma here, even though I think the services will be all over the Sooners - scary, because I have seen two Bowl GOYs - UTEP and Michigan (I'm sure there have been some that won as well, but I haven't been paying much attention to service plays really - busy, and I don't ever play games on others' recommendation, unless they either have a well documented record, or a detailed writeup, AND I was already leaning that way.)

[BuddyBear]

I am on Oklahoma +141...I think Oklahoma wins outright. Not sure if it is a laugher but I feel Oklahoma is the better team especially with Oregon's starting QB out and Oklahoma's great defense and improving offense.

[maritime]

I'm also on Oklahoma tonight big. Got'em at +3.5 (-115). Razz makes some good points above, but also in his complete bowl writeup thread that I agree with. Also need this one to finish off a 6 team parlay that started 5 days ago. I'm normally not a parlay guy but I like to play them during certain times of the year when many lines are posted for an extended period of time, like bowl season, march madness, etc. Good luck fellas. I hope we cash in on the sooners tonight.

[EBone]

The line is barely moving toward Oregon at the time of this posting. I'm starting to get spooked..............I respect the forum so I'm straddlin' right now.


E

[onlooker]

Im liking Oklahoma ML myself Buddy Bear.

Also, Oregon should be this years California team. The BCS snubbed team.

[BuddyBear]

congrats to OK +3.5 and ML backers