[BigdaddyQH]

To the suprise of no one, Alabama is favored to repeat as National Champions. They are the worst wager on the board. Let's see what they are up against:

The Schedule: 'Bama goes to Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee and LSU. They get Penn State, Florida, and Auburn at home. The schedule is much tougher than last season. 'Bama will wear a bullseye on it's back all year.

BCS Bowl History: The BCS Championship game has never had a repeat winner. Only two teams have made back to back appearances. USC won in 04 and lost in 05. Ohio State lost in 06 and 07.

National Championship History: In the last 40 years, only 4 teams have won back to back National Championships, or a share of the National Championship. The last to do it was USC in 03-04. Nebraska did it in 94-95. Alabama did it in 79-79. Nebraska also did it in 70-71. Only one team, Nebraska of 94-95 won unanimous back to back titles.

So between the schedule, BCS history, and National Championship history for the last 40 years, Alabama has a huge uphill climb to repeat. And all you get for this mission is odds of between 3 and 4 to 1. Now that is what you call a terrible R.O.I. Teams that play a much easier schedule, like Boise State, and Ohio State are 15/1 and 13/2 respectively, and a much better wager.

[wookieehumper]

I have a very hard time seeing them repeat. They're losing a lot of key players on defense, and like you said their schedule is much tougher and everyone will have them circled.

My 2010 national champ pick is Ohio State. They finished the year strong, Pryor seemed to come along after the 2nd half of the season, and they clearly have more talent than anyone else in the Big 10. Their toughest non-conference opponent is Miami (FL), who they will play in Ohio Stadium.

[BigdaddyQH]

The big obsticle for Ohio State to hurdle is a game at Iowa. Iowa gets all the breaks in the scheduling. They get both Penn State and Ohio State at home. They go to Michigan after the Penn State game, AND a week off. They played Ohio State very tough with a crippled team at Columbus last season.

[whatsgood5]

I don't think they will repeat, but I would not be too surprised if they do

[robmpink]

nope

[robmpink]

I say 6-1 odds

[morocca]

LSU will represent the SEC West next year and TENN in the east. can anyone see it any other way than this? Florida is rebuilding/reloading while Georgia is still mediocre.

[daneblazer]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

To the suprise of no one, Alabama is favored to repeat as National Champions. They are the worst wager on the board. Let's see what they are up against:

I actually agree w/ everything you said. They are also losing some important pieces of a team that got really, really lucky to run the table in the regular season. It won't happen again. LSU & Florida will be good and UGA, Auburn, Arkansas & South Carolina will be better than most people are expecting.

[ZBOIZ]

Originally Posted by morocca

LSU will represent the SEC West next year and TENN in the east. can anyone see it any other way than this? Florida is rebuilding/reloading while Georgia is still mediocre.

If Miles dont get to the sec championship game next year he's gone. The plans is already in the making.

[BigdaddyQH]

Then you can expect Miles to be gone. He has games at Florida, Auburn and Arkansas, plus home games against Tennessee and Alabama. Arkansas gets Alabama and LSU at home, and has by far, the best QB in the SEC. They will be the team with the best value to win both the SEC West and the SEC. Right now,Arkansas is 40-1 to win it all, a much better wager than LSU at 25-1. If someone is to upset Alabama, it will be Arkansas, not LSU.

[Jasonal_98]

Even as an Alabama homer, I agree with many of the sentiments in this thread. I would be shocked if they had 3 consecutive undefeated regular seasons in a row. I still think they are the class of the West and the SEC, but a loss to Arkansas, LSU, or UF would not be shocking (hell, I'm one of the people who thinks that South Carolina may put it together next year). Yeah, I hope they repeat, but the odds are against it. Not enough value in a 4-1 future.

[daneblazer]

I was thinking South Carolina too until I looked at their schedule. Nothing easy about it.

[BigdaddyQH]

I do not expect an SEC team to be in the NC game this year, because the schedules are simply too tough. Boise State is going to crash the party if they defeat Va. Tech. The Federalies will put too much pressure on the BCS for them to ignore a team that has three straight undefeated regular seasons. I think they play the winner of the Ohio State-Iowa game. Penn State loses too many players to compete with those two, and the rest of the Big 10 just does not have enough to do it. Neither team has a difficult non-con game. I think the Big 12, Pac 10 and ACC teams basically beat each other up in conference play this season, and the Big East is pretty much of a joke.

[clonecat]

Why would LSU want to get rid of Miles? Who would be the replacement?

[Jasonal_98]

Originally Posted by clonecat

Why would LSU want to get rid of Miles? Who would be the replacement?

Miles is worth an average of 2 losses per year due to his coaching gaffes. He has no concept of clock/game management.

With LSU's facilities and $$, they would not have a problem luring a superior replacement.

[BigdaddyQH]

Jasonal is correct. Miles is terrible at clock management. He also takes many unnecessary risks during a game. His recruiting class was good, but he has fallen behind Alabama, Florida and Auburn this year. HIs teams have never lost less than 2 games a season, including his NC season. They lost 4 games last season and 5 games the season before. On top of all that, he makes it known that he really want to coach at Michigan. If Rich Rod has another bad season, Miles jumps to Michigan in a second.

[scarp]

Bama will be good, but look for Oklahoma to be back in it this year.

[BigdaddyQH]

Stoops is really having a porblem beating Texas now. They are 1-4 in their last 5 games against Texas. He finally won a bowl game, against a crippled Stanford team minus it's QB. OU had a good recruiting class this year, but lose a lot of talent on defense. They play Florida State at home, and go to Cincinnati the week before the Texas game. We do not see OU as a contender this season unless they can rebuild their defense in a hurry.

[capri5421]

Bama will NOT repeat, there's a team in Gainesville that got PAYBACK on there mind. No way Bama beat's Gators TWICE next season.

[ZBOIZ]

Originally Posted by clonecat

Why would LSU want to get rid of Miles? Who would be the replacement?

With the facilities LSU has they can get just about any coach they want. Getting a coach wont be a problem. I wont Bo Pelini back at LSU but that would be hard due to the fact he's building something good at Nebraska.

[msec512]

Ohio State could make it to the BCS game. But, they would lose badly like they have before.

[BigdaddyQH]

Florida is going nowheres this season. They are not going to beat 'Bama in Tuscaloosa. That simply is not going to happen. Alabama's biggest worries will be at Arkansas and at LSU.

The BEST wager on the board by far is Boise State. Here is a team that not only returns 21 out of 22 starters, they also have a ton of depth, something that Alabama and Ohio State lack. They have a very winnable game at home against an Oregon State team who is a notorious slow starter, and has no QB. Their ONLY test comes in Landover Md. against Va. Tech. A win there guarantees them another perfect season. That would be 3 in a row. Starting at #3, they will not be denied a trip to the big game in 2011 in Glendale AZ, a place where they have won their two BCS games. All this at 12/1. No other team has an easier road to the big game.

[msec512]

I like Boise's chances at 12 to 1. I might take that.

[BigdaddyQH]

I agree. There is great value there. The only reason why they are so high is because they are a non-BCS team. But you can not argue with success. If they run the table for the third time in 3 years in the regular season, they can not be ignored. If they were 5/1 or less, I would pass. But at 12/1, the value is there.

[jwbama23]

Bama wins and I believe they win in an even more dominating fashion than they did this year. Lets see, senior qb, best running back tandem in college football, huge offensive line with plenty of talent, A lot of young and very talented players on defense that have been playing great in spot duty but now get to play full time, and of course the best defensive mastermind in CFB on our side. Bama may have a slip up game and get a loss but most years you can get to the big game with 1 loss.

Ive heard a lot of people say well losing McClain will kill Bama and while I agree that it doesnt help most people do not realize that Donta Hightower got injured and was out the rest of the season with a torn acl. Now Donta Hightower is basically a mini McClain who has the potential to be even better.

Yes I am a Bama alum so I am biased but I will also admit that at the begining of this past season I told everyone that 2010 was our year and I was looking for us to have a 9 win season in 2009. I also think yes our schedule is a bit tougher but getting most of the tough games at home will be a huge positive for us and shouldnt allow for any major slip ups at home.

Bama wins again!!!!!!

[solepride]

Bama is too strong for next year.

[jon13009]

Alabama was good, but should not repeat. Hard to see what next year brings.

[BigdaddyQH]

I can understand why 'BAma fans thing that they will win it all, but the faact is that it has never been done in the BCS Era, unless you want to count USC's back-to-back AP titles in 03-04. I will fade 'Bama at 385 gladly. The sad thing about this is that 'Bama could well be the best team, and gets victimized by the schedule, while a team like Ohio State or Iowa uses the schedule to their advantage. That is why I like Boise State at 12/1. You have to get to the big game to win it, and if they start out at #3 and go undefeated again, they surely will end up in the big game because BOTH Alabama and Ohio State will not go undefeated.

[Cookie Monster]

Still has my doubts about Boise State. Love the team, but some numbers are not right. Let´s say they have a 40% of finishing undefeated. That still does not guarantee a place in national championship. A Big XII or Pac 10 team should eventually get a better rating, as voters/computers take strength of schedule. Even if they plays the NC, the line would be -300 or so. Then, I do not see much value on a +1200 future. Maybe the best bet on the board, but not a great +EV.

[HoldEmHook!!]

I still feel like Bama is the class of the SEC......people say we lost too much on defense, I say Bama's secomd string rotated in and played as much as the starters.....Defense wins championships and Bama's defense will be addition by subtraction...The loss of Cody is a very good thing for Bama, He was Bama's Refrigorator Perry and truly never lived up to the hype. The block at Tenn was not athletic or great. It was a low kick. Every National championship has games that come close, or how did they win that one. No one gives Bama the credit for going undefeated in the regular season back to back in by far and away the toughest conference in college football. With the returning starters on offense Bama looks strong.....BigDaddy said no one has repeated in the BCS era well has anyone ever won a championship with as young and deep a team as Alabama.....No matter what whom ever wins the big game will have to have fortune on there side as well as talent......Bama plays 10 teams this year who played in bowl games this past season and six of those teams will come off bye weeks, so the task will be tough no doubt. Yes I pick with my heart and my heart says Go Bama, Roll Tide!!!!

[Cappy]

Alabama's defense is going to be considerably weaker this year, and that was their bread and butter for the last two seasons. It's going to be a tougher season this year than the last two years.

[teaserpleaser]

i think bama has a real good shot

[capri5421]

John Brantley.

[HoldEmHook!!]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Alabama's defense is going to be considerably weaker this year, and that was their bread and butter for the last two seasons. It's going to be a tougher season this year than the last two years.

You apparently didnt read the post above yours.....I explained why Bama's defense will be at least as good.

[PRC]

none of those 1-sided futures have value, esp. if they're locking up your money for 5 months.