HARRY'S BOWL GAMES "TOTAL PACKAGE" (39-19 for the season)

12-08-09 03:24 PM

Boyz,

Let this be the start of my bowl season "totals" thread. This entire season I felt like I had a much clearer take on these college over/unders than on the sides. The proof's in the pudding. I went 39-19, over 67%, on my totals plays, while going 44-37, 54%, on my sides. In the bowls I only intend to play totals. I'm guessing I will have between 5 to 7 plays. Haven't formulated my card yet but I do see one game that I recommend betting now....as the line will likely change.

TCU/BOISE STATE - OVER 54-

I almost busted a nut when I saw this posted total. My numbers have this one in the mid-60s. When I see a number that's over 10 points different from my own, I always have to ask why....? The boys in Vegas are not fools. I'm gonna guess that their reasoning is that both of these teams routinely ran up their scores this season against inferior foes. Playing each other they will be facing legit defenses...so maybe the scoring won't come so easy. I'm not buying it. Both of these schools are hellbent on showcasing themselves. Boise State averages 44 ppg and 460 ypg. TCU averages 41 ppg and 467 ypg. That's a lot of firepower! These teams are both gonna move the ball and score. This one goes way OVER. For me, it's a DOUBLE UNIT play (my first of the season). Play it early....I think it will sneak upwards as the bets come in.

More plays to come.

As always, best of luck.
Harry

2009 college totals (39-19)
2009 college sides (44-37)

PeePee · 12-08-09 09:53 PM

Last year they both met in bowl game and final score was 17-16. I think that's part of it.

Looking forward to rest of your plays.

iceminers26 · 12-12-09 05:40 AM

I like the over play in TCU, think they put up at least 30 on their own.

ImBettor · 12-15-09 01:30 AM

as always, tailing you harry.

anything else??

S.K.M. · 12-15-09 02:04 AM

Boise will struggle a bit against this TCU defense and the game could turn into a blowout. I do have to agree though that 54 seems too low.

THE PROFIT · 12-15-09 02:48 AM

No one is giving Boise a chance here. They've been there done that. If it wasn't for Boise non-bcs teams wouldn't be in BCS bowls. I think alot of people are going to be surprised of the outcome of this one!

S.K.M. · 12-15-09 03:09 AM

Boise St. is a good team no doubt but they have not seen a defense like this. Not even close. I really wish these two weren't playing each other.

12-15-09 09:37 AM

Originally Posted by THE PROFIT

No one is giving Boise a chance here. They've been there done that. If it wasn't for Boise non-bcs teams wouldn't be in BCS bowls. I think alot of people are going to be surprised of the outcome of this one!

You make a very valid point that very few people choose to remember. Boise is THE reason non BCS teams are even allowed to play in BCS Bowls. And they have improved their recruiting class since that appearance so I wouldn't count them out. They can still put up some numbers.

I like the over on this as well.

12-15-09 06:06 PM

PLAY #1: FRESNO STATE/WYOMING - UNDER 55

The Bulldogs have the better attack, and it shows as they are listed as an 11- favorite. This particular bowl has belonged to the dogs though so Wyoming is worth considering. For the Cowboys to compete here they have to shut down the prolific rushing attack of the Bulldogs. Wyoming has a stout defense and they've been involved in a lot of low-scoring games this year. They don't want to trade points with Fresno. I look for a lot of rushing attempts by both sides in this game. The New Mexico weather should also play a factor. Total should end up in the 40s. UNDER.

More to follow.

jnickell100 · 12-15-09 07:09 PM

Boise played TCU last year so theyve seen their defense before.Granted TCU's defense is better this year, but Boise's offense is much improved this year and Kellen Moore has one more year of experience.

12-22-09 01:04 PM

One of the glaring trends early in this bowl season has been the tendency for games to go over the posted total. 63 points were scored in Wyoming's victory, 69 in Rutger's win, and a whopping 74 in Mid-Tenn's romp. The coaches have been letting the boys have some fun and open it up. Gotta believe we're gonna see more of the same tonight when Oregon State dukes it out with BYU. The Cougars have been averaging 35 ppg this season, while the Beavers are putting up 32 ppg. These two teams are very evenly matched, though Oregon State has faced a stiffer strength of schedule. BYU's passing attack is ranked 13th in the country, and Og State's isn't far behind at 16th. BYU's pass efficiency defense is ranked 45th and the Beavers is ranked 62nd (giving up 20 TDs against only 8 INTs. Ouch!) The point is, these two teams will move the ball on each other. I am slightly concerned by the sloppy weather forecast so I am going to temper my play a bit....

1/2 UNIT --- OREGON STATE/BYU - OVER 58

12-24-09 11:59 AM

Well, five bowl games so far, five overs. Obviously the offenses are having more fun than the defenses thus far. Tonight's game smells like another shootout. June Jones returns to Hawaii, where he has had a lot of success. He faces a high-flying Nevada team that averages 40.6 ppg. The Wolf Pack have 3 RBs who gained over 1000 yards this season. Tonight though only one of them will be suiting up (injury and academic ineligibility). Gotta believe that could factor in. Sooner or later we're gonna see some "unders" go to the pay window in this bowl season. My money says it starts right here. These two teams can score, but 72 is a big number. SMU's games have averaged 57 ppg this season, while Nevada has averaged 67. Split the difference and it comes to a projection of 62. I'll gladly take that kind of advantage going in. Put me down for....

NEVADA/SMU - UNDER 72

12-25-09 08:19 PM

The main reasons I like a game to go under the posted total are usually....
a) the posted line is ridiculously high
b) nasty weather is forecast
c) two staunch defenses are playing, or
d) two pathetic offenses are playing.
In the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Ohio and Marshall are playing in a dome, do 'A doesn't apply. Nor does 'B' as the total is only 48-, and all the bowl games this season have already eclipsed that number. The two defenses are pretty good, but not great, so point 'C' is also not a factor. The two offenses are completely anemic though. I see Ohio probably winning by the score of about 21-17. My numbers have the total ending somewhere around the high 30s. For me, that's a play on.....

MARSHALL/OHIO - UNDER 48-

12-26-09 12:07 AM

Got it at 49, thanks

12-26-09 03:25 PM

Well, hit the UNDER in the Marshall game, even had the score right, just the wrong side winning. More to follow.

MAB · 12-26-09 03:29 PM

Nice call Harry. Thanks for sharing your picks.

moodyt2 · 12-26-09 03:41 PM

nice call. i need to start listening better

jasDace · 12-27-09 01:39 AM

nice

dvb02 · 12-27-09 09:51 AM

Great job.

12-27-09 12:48 PM

Boyz, I have my own math model that helps me predict how many points will be scored in a game. When my prediction is significantly different than the posted total, I generally have a play. In the name of full disclosure, today's play is NOT based off my math model. It is a gut feeling only, and being that I don't like to force a play, I will ease off the throttle a bit....

1/2 UNIT ON......CLEMSON/KENTUCKY - OVER 53-

Realize that Kentucky has the SEC pedigree here, but come on....Clemson has a much better program with much better players. They should have their way today. RB Spiller will be the best player on the field and he'll relish the opportunity to show his stuff to NFL scouts. The Tigers have averaged 32 ppg this season, and the Wildcats a respectable 27 ppg. Kentucky will be without one of their best defensive players, LB Maxwell. The offenses here are better than the defenses, so I look for this game to go up and OVER the total.

mmike032 · 12-27-09 01:27 PM

I agree,
Randall Cobb is also an explosive player that can break some big runs.

12-27-09 04:02 PM

Originally Posted by Harry N. Lloyd

Boyz, I have my own math model that helps me predict how many points will be scored in a game. When my prediction is significantly different than the posted total, I generally have a play. In the name of full disclosure, today's play is NOT based off my math model. It is a gut feeling only, and being that I don't like to force a play, I will ease off the throttle a bit....

1/2 UNIT ON......CLEMSON/KENTUCKY - OVER 53-

Realize that Kentucky has the SEC pedigree here, but come on....Clemson has a much better program with much better players. They should have their way today. RB Spiller will be the best player on the field and he'll relish the opportunity to show his stuff to NFL scouts. The Tigers have averaged 32 ppg this season, and the Wildcats a respectable 27 ppg. Kentucky will be without one of their best defensive players, LB Maxwell. The offenses here are better than the defenses, so I look for this game to go up and OVER the total.

Have His way like He did at South Carolina????

12-30-09 06:39 PM

Okay, it's back to the math model for me.

HOUSTON/AIR FORCE - OVER 63

Two teams with totally contrasting styles clash in this one. Don't really think either team can stop the other. Air Force has one of the best running attacks in the country, averaging 274 ypg on the ground. Houston, meanwhile, has a terrible run defense, allowing 5.0 ypc. The Cougars are ill-equipped to stop this rushing machine. What the Cougars will do is score, as they've averaged 44 ppg this season, doing damage mainly through the air. The Falcons pass defense is actually reasonably tough, but they will have their hands full in this one. Both teams will move the ball with ease and this one should go well into the 70s.

AUBURN/NORTHWESTERN - OVER 54-

I found this to be a reasonably low posted total and look for the game to go over. One thing Auburn has done well this year is move the ball efficiently on the ground, as evidenced by their 5.0 ypc. The Wildcats have done pretty well defending the run, but they will be up against SEC speed in this one. Auburn should control the ground, and both teams will have success through the air....and this one goes north of the total.

PENN STATE/LSU - UNDER 43-

Two very good defenses square off in this one, with a lot of conference pride on the line. LSU has only allowed 16 ppg this year, and Penn State has been even stingier, allowing an eye-opening 11.8 ppg. Neither of these squads have the offensive weapons to dent the opposing D. Yards are going to be tough to come by and even though the posted total is quite low....I am playing the UNDER.

jasDace · 01-01-10 08:17 PM

very nice

01-01-10 08:32 PM

Originally Posted by NashvilleSteve

Have His way like He did at South Carolina????

I EAT CROW AGAIN!!!!

01-01-10 09:25 PM

Originally Posted by Harry N. Lloyd

Okay, it's back to the math model for me.

HOUSTON/AIR FORCE - OVER 63

Two teams with totally contrasting styles clash in this one. Don't really think either team can stop the other. Air Force has one of the best running attacks in the country, averaging 274 ypg on the ground. Houston, meanwhile, has a terrible run defense, allowing 5.0 ypc. The Cougars are ill-equipped to stop this rushing machine. What the Cougars will do is score, as they've averaged 44 ppg this season, doing damage mainly through the air. The Falcons pass defense is actually reasonably tough, but they will have their hands full in this one. Both teams will move the ball with ease and this one should go well into the 70s.

AUBURN/NORTHWESTERN - OVER 54-

I found this to be a reasonably low posted total and look for the game to go over. One thing Auburn has done well this year is move the ball efficiently on the ground, as evidenced by their 5.0 ypc. The Wildcats have done pretty well defending the run, but they will be up against SEC speed in this one. Auburn should control the ground, and both teams will have success through the air....and this one goes north of the total.

PENN STATE/LSU - UNDER 43-

Two very good defenses square off in this one, with a lot of conference pride on the line. LSU has only allowed 16 ppg this year, and Penn State has been even stingier, allowing an eye-opening 11.8 ppg. Neither of these squads have the offensive weapons to dent the opposing D. Yards are going to be tough to come by and even though the posted total is quite low....I am playing the UNDER.

So whats the calls on O/U for Jan 2nd Bowls..Im very eager to see which way you have lean vs my own out take.

dvb02 · 01-01-10 11:00 PM

Nice job once again

01-07-10 03:11 PM

Well, I gotta admit....ate a bit of crow on my Boise State-OVER pick. Could barely believe how inept that TCU offense looked. Whatever, it was a double unit loss for me, bringing the overall bowl record to 6-4 on these totals plays.
Tonight, on the final day of the season, I see only one way to play this one. That, my friends, is to the UNDER. This game will feature the two best defenses in the country squaring off. We know Bama loves to give Ingram the ball, but he's gonna have a heckuva time denting this Longhorn run defense, the nation's best, allowing an average of only 62 ypg and only 2.0 ypc. For the record, Alabama has the second best run defense in the land. Texas will look to move the ball a bit more through the air, but tonight that might not be so easy as the Crimson Tide sport the 4th ranked pass defense in the country (Texas, meanwhile, is number 3).
The two best defenses that Texas has seen this year were Oklahoma and Nebraska, and in those games the Longhorns only managed to put up 16 and 13 points. Likewise, Bama only scored 24 against LSU, 12 against Tennessee, 20 against South Carolina (but finally broke through by putting up 32 against Florida.) Tonight smashmouth meets smashmouth. The clock should keep running and points will be tough to come by....Play the UNDER.

ALABAMA/TEXAS - UNDER 46

As this will be my final play of the season, I'd like to bid y'all a fond farewell and will hopefully see you again when college football resumes in late August. Peace.

As always, best of luck.
Harry

final 2009 college football totals ---39-19
final 2009 college football sides ---44-37
2009 college bowl plays------6-4 (one game pending)

mmike032 · 01-07-10 03:42 PM

congrats on the season,
I enjoyed reading your insight

PeePee · 01-07-10 04:16 PM

Thanks for sharing, sir, and see you next season.

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HARRY'S BOWL GAMES "TOTAL PACKAGE" (39-19 for the season)

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