Arizona Wildcats and Oregon Ducks fight it out in crazy Pac-10
Arizona Wildcats and Oregon Ducks fight it out in crazy Pac-10
The Arizona Wildcats are still in the running for a date in Pasadena on New Year's Day, but first they have to stop the Ducks' running game led by LaMichael James.
This year’s Pac-10 betting scene hasn’t gone according to plan. Here’s what one of my favorite college football analysts said about the state of the conference in the preseason: “Don’t read too much into USC’s supposed fall from grace. The Trojans will be in the black this season. Looking at futures value, only Cal or Oregon has a hope of challenging USC for a trip to the Rose Bowl. UCLA will be a surprise wager in the Pac-10.”
The only part they predicted right was their shout out to the Ducks, who are poised to walk away with the Pac-10 title in two short weeks. The Trojans are one of the worst wagers in the nation at 2-8 ATS (7-3 SU), and the Bears (7-3, 5-5 ATS) were out of Pac-10 contention long ago.
The Bruins are pedestrian at best, with a 5-5 (5-5 ATS) record, including a 2-5 mark in conference play. There’s also no mention of No. 14 Stanford, No. 20 Oregon State, or Arizona, which meets up with Oregon in a huge game for both schools this weekend.
No. 11 Oregon at Arizona (+6, 58½)
Saturday – 8 PM ET, ABC
Don’t read too much into the mainstream media’s spin on the battle between the Ducks (8-2, 7-3 ATS) and Wildcats (6-3, 4-5 ATS) at Arizona Stadium on Saturday night.
Everywhere you look, Oregon’s been penciled in to win the Pac-10 and book its ticket to the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day, when it’s likely to face Big Ten champion Ohio State. It’s not over yet. Arizona is only one game behind the Ducks in the Pac-10 standings, so a win in its final three games (including on Saturday) hands the Wildcats an improbable conference championship.
As for the higher-ranked Cardinal and Beavers, the Wildcats hold the tiebreaker by virtue of their victories (2-0 ATS) against both of them earlier in the season. The reality is Saturday night’s tilt in Tuscon is by far the biggest game in the Pac-10 this year. Oregon’s 47-20 win as 3-point home underdogs over Southern California on Halloween is a spring practice walk-through compared to this one. The game has major implications, so bettors need to realize Arizona isn’t just playing out the string in acquiescence to Oregon’s supposed coronation.
The key to the ballgame is the Wildcats are playing at home. If the contest were taking place at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, the story would be written. The Ducks have arguably the strongest homefield advantage of any school in college football, and wouldn’t figure to have much trouble with the Wildcats on their own turf. Arizona Stadium is a different story: Arizona is 5-0 (3-2 ATS) there this season, and is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games overall.
Let’s be clear on what Oregon has to do on Saturday night to cash a winning ticket for spread bettors. The Ducks not only have to hand the Wildcats their first home loss of the season, but they have to win by a converted touchdown for those that took them at -6.
A look at Oregon’s rap sheet on the road this season reveals the favorites are in for a tough time on Saturday. At Autzen Stadium, the Ducks are 6-0 (5-1 ATS). On the road, Oregon is a pedestrian 2-2 (2-2 ATS). The Ducks’ only two road wins (and both paydays) came at UCLA and Washington, which are both tied for seventh in the Pac-10.
In its only two games of the season against ranked opponents away from Eugene, Oregon lost 19-8 at Boise State (-3½) on September 3 and 51-42 at Stanford (+6.5) on November 7. The Wildcats aren’t ranked in the BCS or AP top 25, but they were before falling 24-16 at California (-2½) last week in a game that they led 16-15 with 12:26 remaining.
Arizona also matches up well with Oregon’s seventh-ranked rushing attack (237.0 yards per game). The Wildcats are 20th in the country against the run (104.9 YPG), and are 18th overall (305.3 YPG) on the defensive side of the ball. It might not be enough to win the game outright, but it should allow Arizona to keep it close given the aforementioned factors working in its favor.
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Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH
