[HoulihansTX]

Week #11
(13-5) 72%

OVERALL
(53-30) 64%


Link to past threads for proof... http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...week-11-a.html

OVERALL Spreads
(35-26) 57%


OVERALL Totals
(18-5) 78%

[HoulihansTX]

Leans... I repeat LEANS:

Michigan ML <<<<

Minnesota +9.5 <<<<

Kent +12

UConn ML

Kansas St. +15

Marshall -3.5

Louisville/ S. Florida UNDER

Duke/ Miami Florida OVER <<<<

Purdue/ Indiana OVER <<<<

Air Force/ BYU UNDER <<<<

California/ Stanford OVER
______________________

<<<< = Top 5

[eastvan09]

Congrats again on week 11. Should be another great week. Your leans gave me good reading on my ferry and bus ride tonight. Thanks to the crackberry.

Your totals look kick good.

[ackem19]

Congrats on last week. I'll be tailing your totals this week if my budget permits it haha. I like your picks this week and GL.

[kchien]

Congrats on your success, but I was wondering, Duke's offense has looked like pretty bad these last few weeks, do you expect them to bounce back against (and hence the over)?

[PAPSMEAR]

whose da man houls is da man

back to work already for his legion of tailers and fans

i'll be playing your picks again this weekend and no doubt making some serious cash as usual

Houls for Prez

[ackem19]

I just got done doing my leans. Glad to see I'm with you on UConn, Kent and Marshall. Both the Michigan game and the Minnesota game I'm lost on. Since they are in your top 5, any way you can clarify?

[Cougar Bait]

With you on UConn...man I must have totally missed Kansas St. +15...that's a nice play. GL this week Houlihan's.

[HoulihansTX]

I just got done doing my leans. Glad to see I'm with you on UConn, Kent and Marshall. Both the Michigan game and the Minnesota game I'm lost on. Since they are in your top 5, any way you can clarify?

I will be doing a couple of write ups. Thank you for updating the LD/ LA list, and I have a few to add.

I will only have 5 Official Plays this week. Any other games will be added as the day goes on, or I will make them Strong Opinions.

Give me until tonight to explain my stances. Michigan is going to win that game, mark my words.

[HoulihansTX]

Michigan ML <<<<

UConn ML

Kansas St. +15
__________________________
Oregon St. 1st Half (-)
Rutgers 1st Half (-)
_______________________
Purdue/ Indiana OVER <<<<

California/ Stanford OVER

K-State/Nebraska UNDER

Air Force/ BYU UNDER <<<<

____________________________
Marshall -3.5
UAB (+)
Minnesota +9.5 <<<<
Kent +12
Louisville/ S. Florida UNDER

Duke/ Miami Florida OVER <<<<

[eastvan09]

i"m seeing K-State at +16.5/+17 at 2 of my books. I have not seen any totals yet

[HoulihansTX]

i"m seeing K-State at +16.5/+17 at 2 of my books. I have not seen any totals yet

Eastvan. If you are going to play that game with me. wait until Saturday morning, and the line will be just like the INdiana line. K-State can win straight up, so this is a game if you have the $$$ to go big on. The public is all over Nebraska, because K-State lost last week. Although we know that that is an overreaction, b/c K-State was in a huge letdown spot after beating Kansas, a huge rival. So just wait, bro. We will get a line that is ridiculous.

[Cougar Bait]

Kansas State is one of the best plays of the week. Get 17. Houli might be right, but I hope this gets to 17 by tomorrow (cuz that's when I put my dough down). Purdue Indiana total OVER 56 looks good.

[HoulihansTX]

Kansas State is one of the best plays of the week. Get 17. Houli might be right, but I hope this gets to 17 by tomorrow (cuz that's when I put my dough down). Purdue Indiana total OVER 56 looks good.

Where are you seeing the Total? That is lower than I expected, If so go big

[Cougar Bait]

Bookmaker

[Cougar Bait]

I expected about 62

[HoulihansTX]

I expected about 62

Well. Totals I have to wait until later in the week to bet them in Vegas. UNles I go to the Hilton, but that is out of my way.

[eastvan09]

Sounds good, I appreciate your analysis. According to Sports Insights K St/Neb opened at -14.5 and has moved to -16.5 (584 bets). Many more bets to come, hopefully they move it in our favour, maybe K St +17.5. I'll consider a 5 unit play. Oh St/ Mich opened at -11.5 and is now -12.5 (1439 bets), looks like this will probably move higher, hopefully to +14.5.

I'll build my parlays around K St + and probably Mich + as well.
For what it is worth: The SBR Sportsbook has early MLs: Michigan +395, Conn +210, and K st +605. If regular book lines are similar I might have to put 1 unit down on some of those, serious cake!

[HoulihansTX]

Sounds good, I appreciate your analysis. According to Sports Insights K St/Neb opened at -14.5 and has moved to -16.5 (584 bets). Many more bets to come, hopefully they move it in our favour, maybe K St +17.5. I'll consider a 5 unit play. Oh St/ Mich opened at -11.5 and is now -12.5 (1439 bets), looks like this will probably move higher, hopefully to +14.5. I'll build my parlays around K St + and probably Mich + as well. For what it is worth: The SBR Sportsbook has early MLs: Michigan +395, Conn +210, and K st +605. If regular book lines are similar I might have to put 1 unit down on some of those, serious cake!

SBR's Book is based on other books. I'm going to guess 5Dimes.

[Cougar Bait]

Like all three sides, the over 56 on Purdue/Indiana, and I don't play 1st or 2nd half games so I am no help there...44 is what I saw on the Nebraska Kansas St. game...eh...I'd pass personally on that one...but you're the totals guy so run with it I guess.

[brooks85]

i gotta hear why you think michigan stands a chance next week.

[HoulihansTX]

i gotta hear why you think michigan stands a chance next week.

I will do a write up, for sure.

[HoulihansTX]

Updated LEANS I reapeat LEANS

Michigan ML

Boston College -3.5

Tulsa (+)

Kent State (+)

Kansas St. +15
__________________________

Iowa State/ Mizzou OVER

SMU/Marshall OVER

K-State/Nebraska UNDER

Air Force/ BYU UNDER

[eastvan09]

Early totals on Sports Interaction (CRIS):
Purdue/ Indiana 58 (Previous lean)
Iowa St/Mizzou 50.5
Air Force/ BYU 46
K-State/Nebraska 44
SMU/ Marshall 48
Cal/ Stanford 65(Previous lean)

My books have not posted totals for the Saturday games yet. 65, wow Cal/Stanford is high! Temple at -12.5, you think Temple wins but Kent state keeps it within two TDs. I'll probably take Temple ML in my parlays and tease the -12.5 down to -6.5.

[HoulihansTX]

Early totals on Sports Interaction (CRIS): Purdue/ Indiana 58 (Previous lean) Iowa St/Mizzou 50.5 Air Force/ BYU 46 K-State/Nebraska 44 SMU/ Marshall 48 Cal/ Stanford 65(Previous lean) My books have not posted totals for the Saturday games yet. 65, wow Cal/Stanford is high! Temple at -12.5, you think Temple wins but Kent state keeps it within two TDs. I'll probably take Temple ML in my parlays and tease the -12.5 down to -6.5.

Yea those previous leans were scratched b/c I found totals with out the crazy numbers. Those numbers are too high for me. But I like the new ones even better. I feel I found some hidden gems with the new ones. I would advise people to lay off the previous leans.

Kent St has a good rush D, when playing MAC teams. Temples QB is a liability if he is called upon to win the game. So I think Kent will stack the line in an effort to force Temples QB to make plays.

Iowa St/Mizzou is the same game that will be played between Purdue/Indiana. But the total is more favorable. Both teams struggle on D, especially Iowa State. Mizzou may score 40.

[ackem19]

I'm really liking the Kent St game. I think Kent St is a much better team than people want to think they are. They're in a good spot playing a Temple team that isn't really playing with any motivation considering they're already bowl eligible, something they haven't qualified for since Golden became head coach. Temple is playing well and winning, but they're not stopping people, they're just outscoring them. Plus, Kent State can become bowl with a win here. I think Kent covers this one.

KSU looks like a good pick considering I can't see this game being high scoring. Both teams rely on their ground game while both defenses rely on their ability to stop the run. KSU allows 105 rushing yards per game and Nebraska allows 95 rushing yards per game. Neither team has done particularly well when forced to pass so I think the 15 points is strong for KSt, especially when you consider how much the public will be on Nebraska. I don't make plays on Totals but even I would make the play for the under.

The only pick (other than Michigan) that I'm not sure about is Tulsa. Tulsa hasn't done well when they've had to rely on their passing game and So. Miss is only allowing 74 rushing yards per game at home this year. However, So. Miss is in the same situation as Temple where they are already bowl eligible while Tulsa needs to win this game and their next game at home vs. Memphis to become bowl eligible.

By the way, be careful with Rutgers, they're on the list of teams with 3 straight ATS wins and they may be in a let down spot after blowing out a ranked USF on ESPN last week. Not sure how that will translate into a 1st Half bet. GL.

[HoulihansTX]

Tulsa is going from being a 5pt fav to a 7.5 Dog. That's is a 12 pt swing, and an overreaction. S. Miss D is not very stout, and their passing D is about the same. Tulsa is a desperate team, that will be able to exploit S. Miss pass D.

As for the Run D. If you look at the C-USA their aren't many strong running teams. Actually this is a Spread Offense league that favors the pass

[marabdl86]

so you are no longer going to play uconn?

[HoulihansTX]

so you are no longer going to play uconn?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/271271-possible-let-down-look-ahead-spots-week-12-a.html#post2583515

[HoulihansTX]

*Official Plays*
_______________________
Michigan ML +380 / +12.5

Boston College (-) <<<< Line has dropped at a few places online. So I'm going to wait it out.

Kent State +12.5

Kansas St. (+) <<<< Waiting for line to continue to creep up
__________________________
Iowa State/ Mizzou OVER 50

SMU/Marshall OVER 48.5

K-State/Nebraska UNDER 43.5

Air Force/ BYU UNDER 46.5
______________________________
*Official Plays*

[iceminers26]

Good luck Hou, really like that SMU/Marshall Over.

[BigdaddyQH]

Hou, if you have not wagered on a game, doesn't that game become a potential wager, rather than an "official" wager? Just wondering.

At any rate, if anyone wants to know why Michigan is a good wager this week, just look at the facts. Michigan certainly has a high octane offense. They have scored 28 or more in half of their games. The down side is that their defense is absolutely horrid. Michigan is playing at home, and needs a win to get into a bowl game. Ohio State has puched it's ticket into the Rose Bowl. This team allowed a wounded Iowa team to take them into OT, and then hand them the game. They have a QB that is a major head case. They have a coach who is so consistant in his offensive game plan that a 5 year old can defend against it. Ohio State is playing out the regular season. Now I am not saying that Michigan is a lock here by any means. Their defense is still one of the worst in the nation, and Ohio State is no push over. Still, the chances of an upset are worth the nearly 4-1 odds that Hou is getting. The play may not win, but the risk to reward ratio is good.

[HoulihansTX]

Hou, if you have not wagered on a game, doesn't that game become a potential wager, rather than an "official" wager? Just wondering. At any rate, if anyone wants to know why Michigan is a good wager this week, just look at the facts. Michigan certainly has a high octane offense. They have scored 28 or more in half of their games. The down side is that their defense is absolutely horrid. Michigan is playing at home, and needs a win to get into a bowl game. Ohio State has puched it's ticket into the Rose Bowl. This team allowed a wounded Iowa team to take them into OT, and then hand them the game. They have a QB that is a major head case. They have a coach who is so consistant in his offensive game plan that a 5 year old can defend against it. Ohio State is playing out the regular season. Now I am not saying that Michigan is a lock here by any means. Their defense is still one of the worst in the nation, and Ohio State is no push over. Still, the chances of an upset are worth the nearly 4-1 odds that Hou is getting. The play may not win, but the risk to reward ratio is good.

I'm going to do a write up on this game, just give me time. But your opinion is on point.

I post them as Official Plays b/c I will be wagering on them no matter, but I am waiting on a favorable line. Also by releasing them early I am able to receive feedback, like your response above.

[eastvan09]

I booked the 4 totals at 2 of my books (I got most of the same numbers you listed).

Michigan dropped from +12.5 to +11.5/+12 at all my books so I booked today. I am waiting on Kansas State as my books are showing+16.5/+17. I've already booked 3 parlays and a teaser. I have a feeling its going to be another great week! I get to add a CFL playoff game to some of my parlays as my team is getting too many points as a road dog (BC Lions +10), everything points to a FG game and we could pull the upset.