11-09-09, 04:52 PM
|
#1
|
|
|
Week 11 Value Plays
Miami Ohio +150
Get your week started right and take Miami Ohio to pound Bowling Green. This line could not be anymore off. And getting 1.5 to 1 on a team that should be favored is to good an opportunity to miss. Its not a guarantte, but if I was to flip a coin and said if you take heads I'll give you 50 and if you take tails I'll give you 75 which one would you take.
Reason the line is so off-Well all you suckers out there that took Bowling Green last week, which was a terrible play by the way, but you got the huge hookup when they drove down the field and scored a last second touchdown to win the game. This is where the psychology of gambling comes into play, all of you that won on that last second drive believe you made a great pick because it won, you also got that great high of winning, and your mind will now trick you into believing that Bowling Green is a good team. The oddsmakers no this, so they therefore adjust the line, overcompensating, because they know you will all take Bowling Green again. By adjusting the line even more it just give Miami Ohio an even greater chance of being the right play. Don't be a sucker, take Miami Ohio to win.
Michigan +8.5
Not the best of the plays, but still one I couldn't pass up. I'm thinking after the last two weeks, everyone has now fallen out of love with Michigan, their swiss cheese defense has let them down two weeks in a row now. This will be a point of emphasis all week at practice.
Reason this line is off-This is a huge rilvalry game, 8.5? Really? Come on guys this is way to many points for Michigan to be getting. Then why would odds makers set it so high? Because they know that even with it this high all of the gamblers that lost taking Michigan the last two weeks, will make what I like to call revenge bets. They are like Michigan ****ing sucks they will get smoked this week Wisconsin is to good. Wrong, Wisconsin isn't that good and Michigan isn't that bad, take Michigan getting a touchdown plus anyday of the week.
Mizz +135
Mizz let a lot of people down this week losing to Baylor as 12.5 point favorites. Now they go visit a hot Kansas State team that just beat Kansas and they are getting 2.5. Don't get me wrong I love Kansas State their running back is nasty, they play smart and protect the ball, but they are not 2.5 points better then Mizz.
Reason the line is off-Oddsmakers know that everyone had Kansas last week against Kansas State and they all watched Kansas State control the entire game. They also know everyone had Mizz against Baylor, and watched Mizz stink it up. So all the observers of those games will obviously either be down on Mizz or all about Kstate, so they therefore make Kstate the favorite, which creates incredible value in taking Mizz. Look for Mizz to rebound this week and win this one easy.
Kansas +4
Kansas loses tough game on the road to a big rival, then they come home to play Nebraska who just beat an overrated Oklahoma team. This one is just way to easy.
Reason the line is off-NOt even going to give much of an explanation here, KANSAS IS GETTING MORE THEN A FIELD GOAL AT HOME!!!!!!!! If they didn't lose to Kstate last week, and if Nebraska didn't beat Oklahoma, this line would have been Kansas -4, infact for those of you that like taking some risk for hugh reward, take the reverse line.
Well thats it, I might add one more, I'm up in the air on the game, and don't want to force anything. If these go 4-0 everyone can thank Cougar Bait for encouraging me to post early, if they all lose, you can all bash him. Good luck to all.
|
|
|
|
11-09-09, 05:07 PM
|
#2
|
|
|
You had some damn good calls this past weekend. Good luck
|
|
|
|
11-09-09, 06:19 PM
|
#3
|
|
|
The point on Miami OH is a good one. In fact, it's almost the same reasoning behind taking Michigan. Vegas understands public perception much better than the public does. Good posts. I am glad I talked you into it.
Last edited by Cougar Bait; 11-09-09 at 10:46 PM.
|
2011pts
TOP SPORTSBOOK
WINNER
02/02/2012
|
|
11-09-09, 08:22 PM
|
#4
|
|
|
I on them all except Michigan. Took the OVER instead.
|
|
|
|
11-09-09, 08:57 PM
|
#5
|
|
|
Excellent plays. I like them all with the exception of Michigan (it's a personal thing).
|
|
|
|
11-09-09, 09:27 PM
|
#6
|
|
|
how sure are u on miaoh i gotta bet big to get out of hole, ill take the 3 pts though
|
|
|
|
11-09-09, 09:29 PM
|
#7
|
|
|
I absolutely love Miami Ohio, Kansas is going to be my biggest Miami Ohio is second though. How big a hole we talking?
|
|
|
|
11-09-09, 09:38 PM
|
#8
|
|
|
cough 1200 cough
|
|
|
|
11-09-09, 09:40 PM
|
#9
|
|
|
Hahaha ok, well getting it back all depends on how much you can afford to lose. I already know your answer, zero right. Well because I know you can't afford to lose anything else, as conservative player I would say put 200 on it, so even if things go bad, you have room to work. If you are aggressive player I would say 500. Only you can decide though, and don't do something because someone on a forum told you to do it. I am not familiar with your finacial situation and would hate for you to get in over head.
|
|
|
|
11-09-09, 09:47 PM
|
#10
|
|
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by strictlywinners
Hahaha ok, well getting it back all depends on how much you can afford to lose. I already know your answer, zero right. Well because I know you can't afford to lose anything else, as conservative player I would say put 200 on it, so even if things go bad, you have room to work. If you are aggressive player I would say 500. Only you can decide though, and don't do something because someone on a forum told you to do it. I am not familiar with your finacial situation and would hate for you to get in over head.
|
already over my head lol. im not a good bankroll manager
|
|
|
|
11-09-09, 09:50 PM
|
#11
|
|
|
Yea its ok, I assume your playing with credit accounts. What is your limit per week.
|
|
|
|
11-09-09, 10:04 PM
|
#12
|
|
|
actually no its a local
|
|
|
|
11-09-09, 10:05 PM
|
#13
|
You Come at the King You Best Not Miss
|
how can you LOVE miami oh?
|
|
|
|
11-09-09, 10:06 PM
|
#14
|
|
|
Because its the right play. You've been killing so far Ralphie keep doing what you do.
|
|
|
|
11-10-09, 06:54 PM
|
#15
|
|
|
Rutgers +105
Don't know how I missed this 1 the first time through. Everyone hated South Florida against West Virginia I loved them, and they won easy. That win was almost two weeks ago now. Rutgers will be motivated to get the signature win against South Florida now. How can South Florida be favored on the road here, Rutgers should be -3.
|
|
|
|
11-11-09, 07:54 PM
|
#16
|
|
|
Any truth to Rutgers having Flu ? I read it in a thread somewhere, but couldn't find anything on the net.
|
|
|
|
11-12-09, 07:27 PM
|
#17
|
|
|
I did not read it either, based on line movement though, it seems the sharps have Rutgers, they would know about the flu before any of us would, if it doesn't scare them it doesn't scare me.
|
|
|
|
11-12-09, 07:55 PM
|
#18
|
|
|
4 picks and counting in this bowling green game, this guy is killing me.
|
|
|
|
11-12-09, 10:26 PM
|
#19
|
|
|
Not how I would have liked to start the week but I guess it could be worse.
|
|
|
|
11-14-09, 01:12 PM
|
#20
|
|
|
Miami Ohio ML Loser
Rutgers ML Winner
Looking good on pending plays so far.
|
|
|
|
11-14-09, 03:10 PM
|
#21
|
|
|
My week comes down to my best play Kansas, I wouldn't have it any other way.
|
|
|
|
11-14-09, 05:52 PM
|
#22
|
|
|
NCAAF
Miami Ohio +3.5 3k Loser 3300
Miami Ohio +150 2k Loser 2000
Rutgers pk 2500 Winner 2500 Really should have went bigger on this one my mistake
Mizz +2.5 2k Winner 2000
Mizz +120 1k Winner 1200
Michigan +8.5 2500 Loser 2750
Michigan +300 500 Loser 500
Kansas +4 5k
Kansas +160 2500
If Kansas covers and loses I have a pretty much break even week. If they don't cover bad week, if they win outright good week. Lets go Kansas.
|
|
|
|
11-14-09, 07:06 PM
|
#23
|
|
|
I was on it with ya strictly...some good picks in there though. Keep the thread going for the rest of the year.  |
2011pts
TOP SPORTSBOOK
WINNER
02/02/2012
|
|
|
