Buckeyes, Nittany Lions meet at Happy Valley
Buckeyes, Nittany Lions meet at Happy Valley
The winner will remain in the hunt for both a Big Ten title and BCS berth. The loser will receive some nice parting gifts from Don Pardo. There's a lot at stake in State College, PA, this Saturday when the No. 16 Ohio State Buckeyes take on Daryll Clark and the No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions. Kickoff at Beaver Stadium is slated for 3:30 p.m. Eastern, with ABC covering all of the action in this crucial contest.
Revolution!
The college football scene may look perfectly normal – if you focus on the SEC as many do. But look what’s happening elsewhere. Iowa is the top team in the Big Ten, and Oregon leads the way in the Pacific-10. The Hawkeyes and Ducks are each 6-2 ATS. Talk about the meek inheriting the earth.
The old order may be crumbling, but the usual suspects – Ohio State, Penn State and USC – have each pulled in more action after eight games than either Iowa or Oregon. Brand recognition still counts for something. We’ve got all three marquee programs lined up for you this week.
No. 16 Ohio State at No. 11 Penn State (-5, 39)
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ET) ABC
The Buckeyes are one of the most profitable teams in the FBS at 7-2 SU and ATS. Lowered expectations play a key role here. Ohio State has taken its lumps for losing three straight BCS bowl games, including two national championships. The Trojans have beaten OSU twice during the non-conference portion of the schedule. And current QB Terrelle Pryor (13 TDs, Nine INTs, 5.0 yards per carry) has taken a lot of heat this year, partly for coming out in support of Michael Vick.
Those blemishes, real or imagined, hide the fact that Ohio State is still a damned good football team. Stathead Brian Fremeau has the Buckeyes ranked No. 20 in the nation in efficiency, with the No. 7 defense. The offense is where things get bogged down on occasion at No. 52 in efficiency. Pryor is still one of the rising stars of college football, but he doesn’t have wideouts Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline at his disposal, nor is RB Chris “Beanie” Wells working his magic.
Pryor was also heavily recruited out of high school by Penn State, so there’s some added animosity in this matchup. The Nittany Lions (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) are ranked No. 17 in overall efficiency, again with the defense leading the charge at No. 14 in the nation. The under is a combined 12-5-1 for these two clubs. Penn State went into the Horseshoe last year and won 13-6 as a 1.5-point favorite; it took a fourth-quarter fumble by Pryor for the Lions to get the winning score.
I’m always preaching about the importance of special teams against the betting odds, so I’d be remiss if I didn’t tell you that OSU kicker Aaron Pettrey (13-of-19 on field goals) hurt his knee against New Mexico State and is out this week. He’ll be replaced by Devin Barclay, who went 1-for-3 in relief against the Aggies. Pettrey hasn’t been very good this year, though, so take this news for what it’s worth.
No. 12 USC at Arizona State (+10, 45.5)
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ABC
It ain’t over yet for the Trojans (6-2 SU, 2-6 ATS). They can still make the Rose Bowl, provided the Ducks lose at least two of their remaining four games. And this is when USC typically elevates its level of play after getting smacked around by either or both of the Oregon-based teams. The Trojans are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after a loss and 21-5 ATS in their last 26 November contests.
While the mainstream media pours the dirt on USC’s grave, the numbers tell a different tale. The Trojans are still No. 14 in overall efficiency on the season, and that includes the Week 3 loss at Washington, where freshman QB Matt Barkley (nine TDs, six INTs) was out with a bruised shoulder. Barkley has improved steadily in his rookie campaign and was not at fault for the 47-20 loss at Oregon (+3). That one goes on the defense, which faces a much simpler challenge this week.
The Sun Devils (4-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) are way down at No. 61 in the efficiency rankings, saddled with the No. 91 offense in the nation. QB Danny Sullivan (eight TDs, seven INTs) isn’t terribly mobile in the pocket. Trick plays and strong defense up front have kept Arizona State in the game, but the secondary isn’t in very good shape, and the Sun Devils are prone to committing penalties. You can’t score when you’re moving backwards. The under is 6-1 for the Devils this year and 20-8-2 in their last 30 games against the Pac-10.
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Originally Posted by HoulihansTX
