[HoulihansTX]

http://www.weather.com/outlook/event...ball_teamsched

Weather looks great. Two teams absent of a D, and also want to out-score.

Tuesday Night Play

BG/Buff OVER 53.5
---Just take the OVER. This is a match-up of two horrible teams. They are bad even when compared to other teams within their conference. It is impossible to cap a matchup of two bad teams. Neither one of these teams Strengths is negated, by the opponents strength.

A rule of thumb: Take the points in a matchup of equally horrific teams.

But Bowling G. is on the road, and not receiving a lot of points.

Take the OVER, and count the money later.
________________________________________ _________
Offense:
Bowling Green averages 24.3 ppg on the road
Buffalo averages 25.3 ppg at home (note one game was against Gardner Webb and they scored 40 points)

Defense:
Bowling Green allows an average of 32.8 ppg on the road
Buffalo allows an average of 23.5 ppg at home

Citation --- Wal66(from his Week 10 thread)
________________________________________ ____

[Superman455]

Houlihans-- I just went to weather.com and looked at the outlook for tonight in Buffalo, NY and it shows 40% rain beginning at 6 PM through 11 PM with a slight chance of turning into snow flurries.

[FishFace5]

Also those stats that wal posted don't exactly scream an over pick. Why you like this one so much again? 2 terrible teams + rain = PUNTING, imo. Just playing devils advocate though. Think we can all understand this is just a crap Tuesday game between 2 crap teams with a chance a crappy weather.

[spongerat]

if you you take into account is the average points scored and allowed in determining the total, then youre not being thorough

[FishFace5]

I was trying to give u some time to edit that... Was that english?? Since it was clearly directed at me I'll try to respond. You are correct, (I think based on my translation) that a play should not be based on 2 stats alone. But in this thread that's what we were discussing, and the fact the 2 teams are very bad and we have some potentially bad weather rolling in. What was your point sir?

[VicVega91]

weather report

http://www.weather.com/weather/local...m=recentsearch

[HoulihansTX]

This is a recommendation, not a gun to your head.

The weather report has changed twice today, since when I looked earlier today Clear skies were predicted. F'n weather more unpredictable than gambling.

[HoulihansTX]

if you you take into account is the average points scored and allowed in determining the total, then youre not being thorough

The Final scores of the past 4 meeting when totaled up; 74, 48, 88, and 34.

Bowling Greens final scores on the road; 31-17, 36-35, 10-17, and 20-27. Bold = MAC games

I made my decision B4 looking at Wal66's post, but those numbers are still telling signs. I'm not throwing darts on a board. If yall are not feeling the OVER, then dont do it. 50/50 chance it goes OVER, like any other bet.

[FishFace5]

Totally understand. Just wanted to discuss, throwing thoughts out there. Respect your opinion a lot.

[FishFace5]

Certainly didn't mean to imply I was on the under big or anything. Just wanted to play devils advocate for discussion purposes. No offense taken I hope.

[HoulihansTX]

Certainly didn't mean to imply I was on the under big or anything. Just wanted to play devils advocate for discussion purposes. No offense taken I hope.

I'm not taking offense, and telling the other side of the story is what the forum always needs. But I played the OVER last night, and didn't take into account the weather.

Now I know the weather has a great chance of being shitty. I would not have made a play on this game in hindsight.

Dude dont let others sway you from your pick. If you are liking the UNDER on a, "Crappy Weather UNDER Play" you should go for it. All signs point to the UNDER right now.

But why is the total climbing in this game??? 56 at pinnacle, 55.5 everywhere else. Are we the only ones who know about the weather??

[FishFace5]

60% on the under 2. I hate RLM.

[HoulihansTX]

looks like only 10% chance of precipitation, I got the over, hopefully it just stays cloudy

This changes like time on a clock.

Does anyone live in the Buffalo, New York area??? Give the forum an update. Money is on the line folks.

[Alvisar]

Think I'm going to take the over?

[311]

28 17 bowling green

[mgoblue313]

Buffalo will run the ball all day on the small dline of B.G. Nduka is a strong 5'11 225 back that averages 6.5 a carry. B.G cant stop an ant from getting through that line. Both teams suck. Iam just gonna take Buffalo -3.

[jim rhodes]

This game is all about Buffalo my friends.They will run all day on BG.

[HoulihansTX]

they BLOW. i used up a lock of the year on them against western michigan but that was a fluke game considering western michigan was up by 14 the whole game and still won outright but couldnt cover 5. bowling green is basically the cream of the crop in the terrible mac besides temple. they lose close games but step up when theyre in the national spotlight (the school itself has a history of doing this in basketball and football). if you can get bowling green plus 3.5 or more, id suggest betting your life on it BOWLING GREEN +3.5 also its not terrible weather here like some people are saying. field looks great but i dont expect ub to put up too many points so the total is a no play for me

Thank you. Will yall stop making my heart stop with all the misinformation about the weather? I locked up the OVER at 53.5.

57.5 are poppin up at all the sportsbooks, so i recommend if you wanted the OVER you missed the boat. Just don't bet you DEGENS's. Like thats going to do anything, I mean we are betting on teams we have never seen play, what DEGENS we are. hahaha

[tbond10]

With the entire board on BG.... I'm going to take Buffalo and the under for 1 unit each... just for fun

[HoulihansTX]

Skys are clearing a bit, Don't think rain will be an issue tonight. It's a little breezy nothing too crazy and 44*F.

Sounds like the weather is working in my favor. Thanks for the update.

[HoulihansTX]

Tuesday Night Play BG/Buff OVER 53.5
---Just take the OVER. This is a match-up of two horrible teams. They are bad even when compared to other teams within their conference. It is impossible to cap a matchup of two bad teams. Neither one of these teams Strengths is negated, by the opponents strength.

A rule of thumb: Take the points in a matchup of equally horrific teams.

But Bowling G. is on the road, and not receiving a lot of points.

Take the OVER, and count the money later.

*(patting myself on the back)*