[HoulihansTX]

Last Week
(9-6) 60%

OVERALL
(32-21) 60%

Past Threads for proof... http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...-week-9-a.html


Shrinking my amount of plays. I need to stick to my strongest plays, in order to make larger amount of money.

[HoulihansTX]

Leans, I repeat LEANS:

Tuesday Night Play

BG/Buff OVER
_________________
Thursday Night Play

Temple (-)
__________________
Georgia Tech (-)

Kansas State (+)

Stanford (+)

Utah (-)

Fresno St. (-)

[ackem19]

so far, with you on Temple, KSU and Fresno St.

[HoulihansTX]

More LEANS:

Troy -24

Kent -3

GT/WF OVER

Ohio St./ Penn St. UNDER

Okla/Neb UNDER

[HoulihansTX]

Official Plays

Tuesday Night Play

BG/Buff OVER 53.5
_________________
Thursday Night Play

Temple -13
_________________

Fresno St. -6.5

Troy -24

GT/WFOVER

Ohio St./ Penn St. UNDER

Okla/Neb UNDER

NV/ S.J. St. OVER

This is the final card no additions, no subtractions. The rest of my leans are to be considered plays on the Strong Opinion level. They will not be played by me, but still are strongly recommended. I want to put more money on a select few games.

GL this weekend, and I will be doing write-ups on a few games.

OVERALL
(32-21) 60% I added the Marshall win

[HoulihansTX]

Plays Under Review

GT/WFOVER
--- Wake Forest QB may be OUT w/ a Concussion. I will no play it without Skinner playing.

[ackem19]

I see you've added Troy. I initially liked them until I saw the spread; 24 points is a lot of points so I may just avoid the game altogether. You're really good at totals so I may tail a few. I was thinking the Buf/BG game and the OSU/PSU game.

[HoulihansTX]

Originally Posted by ackem19

I see you've added Troy. I initially liked them until I saw the spread; 24 points is a lot of points so I may just avoid the game altogether. You're really good at totals so I may tail a few. I was thinking the Buf/BG game and the OSU/PSU game.

Okla/ Neb & NV/ SJ St. are my strongest Total plays, but I like them all. Troy is by far the best team in the Sun Belt.

[HoulihansTX]

Troy -24
--- Their opponent W. Kentucky is(0-8). Have failed to cover the spread in their last four Sun Belt games, two of them being double digits. They have lost their four Sun Belt games by the following margin; 19, 18, 8, and 17. Home games

Troy is (6-2), and (5-0) in the Sun Belt. They are the most talented team, and have the longest tenured coach in the Sun Belt. they have won their Sun Belt games by the following margins; 22, 24, 11, 26, and 3. Away games

[ackem19]

I think what made me a little more cautious about Troy was last week I took SDST and it was pretty much for the same reasons you're taking Troy this week, hell, the same reasons I would take Troy this week and perhaps that is making me a little weary. I'm not off it yet though.

[HoulihansTX]

Originally Posted by ackem19

I think what made me a little more cautious about Troy was last week I took SDST and it was pretty much for the same reasons you're taking Troy this week, hell, the same reasons I would take Troy this week and perhaps that is making me a little weary. I'm not off it yet though.

I was on SD St. as well, but what I didn't factor in was the fact they are playing TCU this week. They were in a look ahead spot. I have not been diligent in checking the full schedule of teams that I have bet. I'm all over letdown spots, but I have been burnt 3 times, including SD St., when not factoring the possibility of a look ahead.

That's why I backed off Utah -27 against New Mexico this week. Utah is playing TCU next week. I'm not saying New Mex covers, but I feel situational analysis is a solid way to cap CFB.

I Leaned on Stanford this week, b/c Oregon is in a letdown spot. Stanford already beat/covered against Washington, after Washington beat USC. Oregon is stout, but Stanford is solid also. Add the fact no one has stopped Stanford's rushing attack in their home games.

We have to remember we are betting on 18-21 year old boys. They are vulnerable to losing focus, and get big-headed after such a win. USC is everyone's target in the PAC-10.

[HoulihansTX]

Tuesday Night Play

BG/Buff OVER 53.5
---Just take the OVER. This is a match-up of two horrible teams. They are bad even when compared to other teams within their conference. It is impossible to cap a matchup of two bad teams. Neither one of these teams Strengths is negated, by the opponents strength.

A rule of thumb: Take the points in a matchup of equally horrific teams.

But Bowling G. is on the road, and not receiving a lot of points.

Take the OVER, and count the money later.

[BigdaddyQH]

I am interested in the Total on the Ohio State-Penn State game. Also the amount of sleep I will get nodding off if I watch that one. Talk about a potential yawner. Be very careful of Kansas State. Any team that can lose to La. Lafayette andhas two wins against FCS teams does not get my respect or money.

Stanford is another team to be wary of. They have played the soft part of their schedule. They have not defeated a team with a winning record. They lost to Wake, who is under .500. Oregon will be out to send a message next Saturday.

[HoulihansTX]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

I am interested in the Total on the Ohio State-Penn State game. Also the amount of sleep I will get nodding off if I watch that one. Talk about a potential yawner. Be very careful of Kansas State. Any team that can lose to La. Lafayette andhas two wins against FCS teams does not get my respect or money. Stanford is another team to be wary of. They have played the soft part of their schedule. They have not defeated a team with a winning record. They lost to Wake, who is under .500. Oregon will be out to send a message next Saturday.

I totally understand. The reasons you stated above, and the fact I was able to find better plays are why they are not Official Plays for me. The were Leans, and will stay as such.

If they had an adjusted Total for the Ohio St./Penn St., I would take a 25 at +250. HAHA

[Cougar Bait]

I like your card, I think you'll have a good week Houlihans.

[ackem19]

just got back from the book and they didn't have a total for the BG game. But i had already decided on taking Bowling Green but i felt more comfortable taking the over. so Bowling Green +3.

In regards to the look ahead spot, it was totally off my radar as well and once i saw they were playing TCU, last week's performance made sense.

[HoulihansTX]

Originally Posted by ackem19

just got back from the book and they didn't have a total for the BG game. But i had already decided on taking Bowling Green but i felt more comfortable taking the over. so Bowling Green +3. In regards to the look ahead spot, it was totally off my radar as well and once i saw they were playing TCU, last week's performance made sense.

GL. I see a total of 53.5 at 5Dimes, but no other book has a total so far, my sportsbook included.

[AdaBarber]

Originally Posted by HoulihansTX

Official Plays

Tuesday Night Play

BG/Buff OVER
_________________
Thursday Night Play

Temple -13
_________________

Fresno St. -6.5

Troy -24

GT/WFOVER

Ohio St./ Penn St. UNDER

Okla/Neb UNDER

NV/ S.J. St. OVER

This is the final card no additions, no subtractions. The rest of my leans are to be considered plays on the Strong Opinion level. They will not be played by me, but still are strongly recommended. I want to put more money on a select few games.

GL this weekend, and I will be doing write-ups on a few games.

OVERALL
(32-21) 60% I added the Marshall win

I like Temple, Troy, and the GT over. My big play is Temple. Good luck!

[HoulihansTX]

Okla/Neb UNDER ???
--- Nebraska's D is no joke, and their D-Line is better than Oklahoma's O-Line.

Much like USC, Oklahoma is in a weaken state this year. If your going to beat them, this is the year to gun for them.

I'm not saying Nebraska wins, but they are a Tyrod last second TD, and 5 turnovers in the red-zone away from being (7-1). If Nebraska pulls off both of those wins people would be saying take Nebraska this week.

Oklahoma is still a great team, but INJ's have made this team vulnerable.

I'm taking the UNDER once they release the lines. It will fall quick.

[ackem19]

I just checked the weather report for the BG/BUF game, it looks like rain today and tomorrow. Tomorrow there is only a 40% chance of rain though.
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenda...&cm_pla=10-day

[HoulihansTX]

Originally Posted by ackem19

I just checked the weather report for the BG/BUF game, it looks like rain today and tomorrow. Tomorrow there is only a 40% chance of rain though. http://www.weather.com/weather/tenda...&cm_pla=10-day

I already laid down the bet. But you should keep on eye out for that. Both teams rely on the passing game, and heavy rains will bog down play. Neither one has a great Run game. UNDER would be my play if its raining.

I hope for clear skies though.

[HoulihansTX]

I continue to forget to check weather on east coast games. FCUK. The wind will be a factor also, about 15mph. UNDER is the only play if the weather continues to be an adverse factor. DAMN.

[HoulihansTX]

I'm changing out a play for another one. With Ryan Skinner possibly out with concussion the OVER play will be discarded. I think by the time we know his status the line will have moved up from a favorable play.


Official Plays

Tuesday Night Play

BG/Buff OVER 53.5
_________________
Thursday Night Play

Temple -13
_________________

Fresno St. -6.5

Troy -24

Wisconsin -11 <<< Added Official Play

GT/WFOVER <<< Ryan Skinner concussed

Ohio St./ Penn St. UNDER

Okla/Neb UNDER

NV/ S.J. St. OVER

[eastvan09]

Nice card Houlihans. I played some of the same games as you last week. Ups to Temple and Oregon for coming through. I was on Ole Miss small and had a funny feeling when the game started. I'm trying harder to avoid taking chalk on the road. Unless the spot is very favourable, I really prefer it when the home team is complete garbage and has trouble scoring. Always tricky ex: Cincinnati was my big play last week as Syracuse fit my mold of the ideal home team to bet against.

I like you analysis on totals. Previously I have rarely played totals. Last week I tailed you on N.Car/ Va Tech under and the S.Car/ Tenn under. I held off on the Temple/Navy and Houston/S.Miss totals. I'll probably dabble with a few totals this week.

My book has Bowling Green/ Buff 53.5... I'll have to wait for the weather report prior to the game. My book has Temple already at -14.5 ugh... I'd probably only play if I could get it down to 13.5 or so. Temple has covered each time I have played them and I am careful not to let the attachment rule over the present line lol

[tblues2005]

Bowling Green and Buffalo over 53.5. I don't know much about these teams at all. Sounds good to me though.

[HoulihansTX]

Official Plays

Tuesday Night Play

BG/Buff OVER 53.5 W


1-0 so far

On to tomorrow

[wal66]

Houl's.......i want my just props for being the first on the degenerate play and being right. Oh and if I hadn't won you wouldn't have hit the over. LOL

Great job and Great start to the week.

[KUGAMER]

I really like your WISC play u added, was leaning heavily on them. After a huge letdown and fall apart in the 4th quarter last week I just don't see IND having a good game. Do you have any analysis or reasoning for your pick?

[HoulihansTX]

Originally Posted by KUGAMER

I really like your WISC play u added, was leaning heavily on them. After a huge letdown and fall apart in the 4th quarter last week I just don't see IND having a good game. Do you have any analysis or reasoning for your pick?

The same reasons you stated. Much like Arkansas' blown effort to beat Florida, they went on to lose embarrassingly the next week. Indiana Blew their load last week, and they will not be up for this game.

[KUGAMER]

Thanks you sir! Think I am gonna hop on it soon for 3 to 4 units. Down to 10.5 so may wait till closer to game time unless I see movement reverse. BOL!!!

[eastvan09]

I was also on the over BG/Buf, lucky hit but I'll take it...

[ackem19]

Glad we both hit. I had to sweat that one out until the last minute. moving forward to temple. good call on the over.

[ackem19]

I think the Temple line went up to 17 so I was considering taking the game over 41. You're pretty good at totals and I was wondering what you thought.

[HoulihansTX]

Originally Posted by ackem19

I think the Temple line went up to 17 so I was considering taking the game over 41. You're pretty good at totals and I was wondering what you thought.

Simply put... Bet Against Trends. In their three meetings totals went UNDER. I would recommend OVER. I'm not betting this though. Up to you.

[HoulihansTX]

Thursday Night Play

Temple -13 <<< Bought this Monday morning
OVER 41.5

-- Link to thread
http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/262053-correlated-parlay-opportunity-miami-oh-temple.html