Taking ECU -4 to the bank...

10-26-09 11:27 PM

ECU with a veteran OL, veteran QB with good scrambling skills, and superstar receiver going nuts in all-purpose yards (Dewayne Harris). Physical defense by CUSA standards, ECU leads the conference in forcing turnovers, including 10 INTs. ECU's leading rusher may not play in this game, but I don't see that as a problem since Memphis's rush defense is atrocious (186 ypg!) and ECU has a good backup with Brockmeyer.

Memphis QB Hudgens has good playmakers to throw to (Calhoun and Singleton), but Hudgens has a tendency for inaccuracy and is coming off a 2-INT performance vs Southern Miss. Memphis has a great rusher in Curtis Steele, but ECU was able to shut him down last year, holding him to 43 yards. Key: Memphis' defense is already horrible (404 ypg, 29 ppg against poor opponents), but for this game they may also be without their leading tackler. Also, Memphis special teams coverage is worst in CUSA.

Pinkney will be able to explode both through the air and on the ground against weak Memphis D. Memphis will get some points too, but ultimately they will be abused by ECU's speed and they will also make some special teams mistakes.

ECU has won the last three meetings by an average of 17 points each.

ECU 27
Memphis 20

My play: ECU -4

10-26-09 11:31 PM

ECU coach's dad (Lou Holtz) will be calling this game on ESPN 2. Extra motivation for ECU players to perform well.

PsychoQ · 10-26-09 11:32 PM

Agree with you 100 percent. Havent talked to ya in a while just seeing if all is well..

docrocker · 10-26-09 11:35 PM

Go ecu

AlphaOmega · 10-26-09 11:36 PM

Here are some stats brought to you from the SBR website:
HEAD TO HEAD SUMMARY
TEAM SU ATS OU PTS RYDS YPR PA PC% PYDS TOTY TO
ECU 6-4 9-1 3-2 31.2 150.9 4.3 34.5 58.6 256.7 407.6 1.9
Memphis 4-6 1-9 3-2 24.5 162.5 3.8 31.6 57.3 214.6 377.1 2.1

Hope this helps I am leaning on
ECU-4

AlphaOmega · 10-26-09 11:37 PM

That post looked better when I typed it up before i posted I will try again my bad

khaden · 10-26-09 11:55 PM

Im with you machine--just locked in ECU at 2.5 $800 to win $500 (bought it down from -4)

This line will be much higher by game time.

Gundog · 10-26-09 11:59 PM

More good info from the Machine
Thanks Machine.

10-27-09 12:00 AM

Don't count on a noisy home-team advantage for Memphis. That Liberty Bowl holds about 63K, on a Tuesday night Memphis might get 25K to show up. Expect alot of empty seats.

AlphaOmega · 10-27-09 12:01 AM

well the bottom line is ecu -4

khaden · 10-27-09 12:07 AM

Originally Posted by AlphaOmega

well the bottom line is ecu -4

Well said!! That makes much more sense!!!!

PAPSMEAR · 10-27-09 01:09 AM

Agreed ECU is the play. Some bookies have the line at -3.5. Going to lock that in NOW. It's like stealing corn off a blind parrot. Why has the total line not been set yet?

joeygats · 10-27-09 01:31 AM

hmm i never saw anyone agree with machine.and everyone is riding this train, im gonna have to place 50 on this sucker.go ecu!

tblues2005 · 10-27-09 01:44 AM

Originally Posted by Machine Choice

ECU coach's dad (Lou Holtz) will be calling this game on ESPN 2. Extra motivation for ECU players to perform well.

I didn't even think about that. Good point!

bypp · 10-27-09 09:17 AM

Sounds like a strong play. Gl machine

10-27-09 10:15 AM

ECU all the way to the bank on this one, Memphis doesn't have much of a home field advantage.

SmackdownV · 10-27-09 11:09 AM

ECU...........

Then Ride the Lakeshow.

Fo Sure.

jholl · 10-27-09 11:28 AM

i didnt know machine was back i was out of town for awhile, damn i already took memphis +4.5 , should i get off it?

BrownTown · 10-27-09 11:42 AM

Lou Holtz will come down from the presser and work his kid if ECU lays an egg here. Right after he beats the shit out of that idiot Mark May. You know that moron will be riding Lou all game long, regardless of the outcome.

Holz Family - 38
Memphis - 24

birdman779 · 10-27-09 12:21 PM

damn lang is on carolina >>>

Dbldown11 · 10-27-09 12:33 PM

Originally Posted by Machine Choice

ECU coach's dad (Lou Holtz) will be calling this game on ESPN 2. Extra motivation for ECU players to perform well.

The ECU play could be right........but this comment is just way out there in left field. In what way is Lou Holtz (the father of their coach) calling the game going to give them extra motivation???

Smurf71 · 10-27-09 01:59 PM

Guys if Lang is on ECU one starts to feel shaky about his 100% lock. It is a bad sign cause whatever Lang picks, one has to pick the other side in order to win

BigDofBA · 10-27-09 02:02 PM

The line started out at -4 and now it's up to -6.

I took ECU at -4. Memphis isn't very good.

Rubicon · 10-27-09 02:09 PM

He is right ONCE in while, lets hope that ONCE is Tonight

Ralphie1412 · 10-27-09 02:12 PM

Originally Posted by jholl

i didnt know machine was back i was out of town for awhile, damn i already took memphis +4.5 , should i get off it?

lol

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

The ECU play could be right........but this comment is just way out there in left field. In what way is Lou Holtz (the father of their coach) calling the game going to give them extra motivation???

I was coming in here to make this comment, so because the coach's lispy old man is in the booth they are gonna bring it? I bet most the kids dont even know that.

Ralphie1412 · 10-27-09 02:13 PM

no way i can take ECU against a home dog on a weeknight with lang backing the road favorite and the spread going from 4-6. PASS

vsdspread · 10-27-09 02:46 PM

If this does make a difference, don't you think the books know about this and would make the adjustment in the line. I am not sure, if it is even worth a half a point when handicapping, but good luck with that Square strategy.

10-27-09 04:30 PM

Here it is boys.......

Memphis' own beat writer from the Memphis Commercial Appeal has predicted an ECU cover tonight!

From Memphis Commercial Appeal

By Phil Stuckenborg

It's Memphis vs. East Carolina at 7 p.m. Tuesday night at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium before an ESPN2 national audience and what could be an intimate crowd if the predictions of rain are accurate.
The Tigers are 2-5 and struggling. Early in the season it was ineffective quarterback play. Then an injury to tailback Curtis Steele in the second game hampered the running game. Two weeks ago, special teams breakdowns prevented the Tigers from winning a third straight game at Southern Miss.
Tuesday night, the challenge is Conference USA's defending champion.
A quick breakdown:
Quarterback: ECU's Patrick Pinkney and Memphis' Will Hudgens are both sixth-year seniors, but Pinkney is the more experienced veteran. Hudgens will be making his seventh career start and third of the season in place of injured Tyler Bass. Pinkney is making his 26th start and was instrumental in the team's upset wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia last year. EDGE to ECU
Running back: Memphis' Curtis Steele has rushed for 240 and 136 yards in the past two games and is averaging 103 yards per game. He moved into the school's career top 10 rushing with the 136-yard effort against a tough Southern Miss run defense. ECU counters with Dominque Lindsay, who has been slowed by an ankle injury. Lindsay missed two games earlier this year with a shoulder injury. He had a career-high 144 yards in a win against SMU. EDGE to MEMPHIS
Receivers: ECU's Dwayne Harris is the No. 1 target for Pinkney. He has 42 catches for 465 yards and is averaging 11.1 yards per catch. No other PIrate has more than 20 catches and only three have double-figure reception totals. The Tigers are led by Duke Calhoun and Carlos Singleton, who are the nation's third most-prolific duo in touchdown catches. Calhoun and Singleton are averaging more than 16 yards per catch and Calhoun is averaging nearly 100 yards per game and having the best season of his four-year career. EDGE to MEMPHIS
Offensive line: ECU has a veteran offensive front, led by a strong interior line. Center Sean Allen was a preseason first-team all-league pick and midseason first-team selection by Phil Steele Magazine. LG Terence Campbell was another preseason all-league pick according to Steele Magazine and RG Cory Dowless is a fourth-year junior making his 22nd straight start. Memphis' line of Ron Leary, Joel McCleod, Brad Paul, Dominik Riley and Tommy Walker has been together since the beginning of the season and getting better each week. Only Riley started a year ago. EDGE to ECU
Defensive line: ECU defensive end C.J. Wilson and tackles Jay Ross and Linval Joseph are among the league's best. Wilson is a four-year starter who was a preseason All-America pick by CollegeFootballNews.com and is one of the league's top NFL prospects. Ross has had 35 career starts and Joseph ranks among the nationalleaders in tackles for loss. Memphis' defensive front has veterans Greg Terrell and Jada Brown manning the ends, but is relatively young inside. EDGE to ECU
Linebackers: ECU should get the nod here if only because it has a reserve linebacker named Dustin Lineback. Nick Johnson is in his first year as a starter and leads the team with 53 tackles. Chris Mattocks is starting at weakside linebacker after spending last year as a reserve. Memphis is led by veterans Greg Jackson and Winston Bowens. Jackson is a four-year starter and Bowens is in his third year starting. Jackson may not play because of a lower leg injury. (If Jackson were healthy, Memphis would get the nod). EVEN
Defensive backs: ECU free safety Van Eskridge and cornerback Travis Simmons are established vets. Eskridge is a hard-hitting safety with seven career interceptions and multiple preseason honors. He is in his third season as the starter at free safety. Simmons is also a three-year starter. Memphis has veterans at free safety (Alton Starr) and at cornerback (D.A. Griffin and Deante Lamar) and strong safety Marcus Ball is a future all-conference performer. EDGE to ECU
Special teams: ECU's dominance here is unmistakable. Simmons is averaging 20 yards per punt return, a category the Pirates lead the nation. Dwayne Harris had returned kickoffs for touchdowns in each of the past two games. Memphis punter Matt Reagan leads the league with a 44.7 average, but had a low line-drive punt returned 50 yards for a touchdown two weeks ago against Southern Miss. The Tigers also allowed a 78-yard kickoff return in the game that led to a TD and Reagan missed a 41-yard field goal. EDGE to ECU
Intangibles: If the Tigers want to entertain the slightest hopes of finishing at least 6-6, they must upend East Carolina at home. The 2-5 Tigers face Tennessee, UAB, Houston and Tulsa to close the season after playing the Pirates. ECU, meanwhile, is 3-1 in the C-USA East and remains a strong candidate to repeat. A loss against Memphis would damage those back-to-back dreams. EDGE to ECU
Final score prediction: East Carolina 30, Memphis 17

bpw6 · 10-27-09 05:29 PM

Very thoughful post.. I enjoyed reading that breakdown!

10-27-09 07:33 PM

Originally Posted by Machine Choice

ECU with a veteran OL, veteran QB with good scrambling skills, and superstar receiver going nuts in all-purpose yards (Dewayne Harris). Physical defense by CUSA standards, ECU leads the conference in forcing turnovers, including 10 INTs. ECU's leading rusher may not play in this game, but I don't see that as a problem since Memphis's rush defense is atrocious (186 ypg!) and ECU has a good backup with Brockmeyer.

Memphis QB Hudgens has good playmakers to throw to (Calhoun and Singleton), but Hudgens has a tendency for inaccuracy and is coming off a 2-INT performance vs Southern Miss. Memphis has a great rusher in Curtis Steele, but ECU was able to shut him down last year, holding him to 43 yards. Key: Memphis' defense is already horrible (404 ypg, 29 ppg against poor opponents), but for this game they may also be without their leading tackler. Also, Memphis special teams coverage is worst in CUSA.

Pinkney will be able to explode both through the air and on the ground against weak Memphis D. Memphis will get some points too, but ultimately they will be abused by ECU's speed and they will also make some special teams mistakes.

ECU has won the last three meetings by an average of 17 points each.

ECU 27
Memphis 20

My play: ECU -4

Prophesy.....

Carson05 · 10-28-09 04:19 AM

tailed you on this one.

10-28-09 04:30 AM

Great pick!

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Taking ECU -4 to the bank...

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