[wal66]

Gonna do something different this week. This week I am gonna provide you with my estimated lines and let you guys decide for yourselves what has value and what doesn’t. There are certain winners here it all now becomes doing the finish work and finding the best bets. Good luck.

East Carolina -10
Virginia Tech -17.5
South Florida pk
Northern Illinois -15
Iowa -14.5
UL Lafayette -1.5
Ohio U -15
Wisconsin -9
Ohio St -28
Cincinnati -24.5
Florida St -9.5
UConn -3.5
Ole Miss -2.5
Nebraska -8
Southern Miss -11
Clemson -45
Missouri -4.5
Western Michigan -1.5
Tulsa pk
UTEP -3
Boise St -13.5
Temple -12
Texas Tech pk
Michigan -16
Virginia -3.5
Iowa St -2.5
Toledo -6.5
Miami -13
Central Michigan -2
Louisville -3
Florida -16
California -6
Nevada -8.5
TCU -26
Midd Tenn St -3
Air Force -3
North Texas -8
Oregon St -3
Penn St -18.5
Fresno St -16
Idaho -7.5
Troy pk
Oklahoma -8.5
Kentucky -6
Arkansas -38
Notre Dame -18.5
San Diego St -18
Georgia Tech -26.5
South Carolina -2
Oregon -1.5
LSU -34
Texas -6.5

Remember I use this to filter out the games I want to look into further.

[wal66]

Crush I never have a problem working with someone in conjunction. I like sharing info and ideas and kicking games back and forth can be as good as anything because often someone else can help you see something differently that you might have missed.

I am on MSN messenger with same user name.

The model is JUST a filter. It gets games wrong, even way wrong, It just enables me to toss out games that have no initial value and concentrate on the ones that do and then handicapping those games from that point.

[polson22]

Crush I never have a problem working with someone in conjunction. I like sharing info and ideas and kicking games back and forth can be as good as anything because often someone else can help you see something differently that you might have missed.

I am on MSN messenger with same user name.

The model is JUST a filter. It gets games wrong, even way wrong, It just enables me to toss out games that have no initial value and concentrate on the ones that do and then handicapping those games from that point.

wal66, your efforts are greatly appreciated. i certainly prefer it to looking at a schedule.

i'd have to find out the opponents and homefields to comment though. which i will do.

[wal66]

polson.............i was steamlining. i do appreciate that you appreciate too.

[wal66]

Made 2 errors guys that I just caught.

Houston -9 not Southern Miss-11
Navy -12.5 not Temple -12.5

Look at so many numbers bound to make an error or two. Have double checked everything now and rest are correct.

[wal66]

My plays will be narrowed down from the list below and these opening actual lines provided by the Gold Sheet.

East Carolina -4
Northern Illinois -9.5
Ohio U -7
Cincinnati -14.5
SMU +16.5
Navy -7
Michigan -8.5
Iowa St +6.5
Miami -7
Penn St -14 (doubtfull)
Idaho -3
South Carolina +6.5
Oregon +3

[Cougar Bait]

Navy and Michigan should be plays (from my end). Wow your program nailed the Florida line exactly.

[wal66]

Alot of them come out really really close generally.

Cincinnati is one I want to hit as early as I can. Sometimes it's Tuesday before my site has some games though.

[wal66]

Haven't looked into things yet and I do know Pike is out but looking at what South Forida did to Syracuse even without all the turnovers Cincy should roll here.

One of the bigger things to really look into is when the program favors one team and the line favors the other. It is generally worth a very close look. Like Oregon/USC this week.

[wal66]

Crusher.........this won't answer your question completely but for example this past weekend Georgia Tech, Oklahoma, TCU, Penn St and 3 other teams that I can't remember right now were favored by the program as better then 4 points over the listed line that I chose not to play. I opted to play the dogs that were favored against the line this past weekend and it was my mistake to do so.

Ultimately it comes down to what the individual can do after these games are filtered out by the program that makes the difference. I see some real potential here already but if I miss something or I lean to heavy on something else then I have failed.

This week I am gonna go out of my way to list everything that I am doing on every game i end up playing. I doubt very seriosuly if I will do this every week as it's alot of work.

[wal66]

I like what your doing there. It's the same thing I will be looking at. Today is just a numbers day trying to weed out the games I don't want to focus on. Tomorrow I satrt capping things. As the week moves if I see some RLM then I may go back over some of the games I initially threw out. All depends. You and your team are well ahead of where I am tonight though.

[joeygats]

seems like we have the same exact process , just a couple of stages are different
I try not to get the lines until sunday night

or even monday morning

the games move during that time , I dont want it to affect My pick selections

but certainly I will have about 15-20 games to dialate then so on just like youve done here , I just spend so much time with injury reports i dont want to spend 4or 5 hours on agame and then figure out in 3 seconds that its a bad pick

see you bud , Ill stay on my own thread for a bit

you guys are my heroes. plz keep up the great work.

[wal66]

Crusher .....you're welcome anytime guy. Nothing wrong with discussion.

[HoulihansTX]

East Carolina -4 (NO op)
Northern Illinois -9.5 (Lean Opposite)
Ohio U -7 (Yes)
Cincinnati -14.5 (YEs)
SMU +16.5 (Starting QB inj)
Navy -7 (Lean Opposite)
Michigan -8.5 (no opinion)
Iowa St +6.5 (no opinion)
Miami -7 (Yes Big)
Penn St -14 (doubtfull) (Yes BIG)
Idaho -3 (You know how I feel about this team)
South Carolina +6.5 (no Opinion/ Leaned UNDER)
Oregon +3 (Yes)

[BigdaddyQH]

We took Miami at-6.5 on the lead out. If you grab them today, you may still get-7. If you wait, you are going to be giving more points. The problem I see you having is that the longer you wait, the more work you have to do, because the lines are in constant flux. In some cases, it will not matter, but in cases that involve key numbers (Miami for example), it will. You have a lot of games involving key numbers. Oregon was +4.5 on the lead out. That is how quick and drastic the lines can change.

[mcbaseball10]

Looking at the lines today Wal, I have some similar interests in a few of your games. I haven't fully dissected yet, but these are my leans so far.

Three good cappers Wal, Houl, LineCrusher putting their heads together in this thread will benefit everybody

Cincy -14.5
Toledo -6 (if QB is playing)
Midd Tenn +1.5
N. Illinois -9.5
Miami -7
UCONN -8

[wal66]

Tuesday October 27, 2009
9:00 PM
East Carolina @ Memphis


Records:
East Carolina 4-3 (2-4 ATS) 1-3 ATS on the road
Memphis 2-5 (2-5 ATS) 2-2 ATS at home

Trends:
East Carolina is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Under is 9-2 in last 11 conference games.
Memphis is 2-6 ATS in last 8 games overall.

Head to Head:
East Carolina is 6-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in last 10 meetings.
East Carolina won last years game 30-10 at home.

Common Opponents:
Both teams have played Marshall. ECU beat Marshall 21-17 on the road. Memphis lost 27-16 at home.
Both teams have also played Central Florida. ECU won 19-14 at home. Memphis lost 32-14 on the road.

Offense:
East Carolina averages 25.1 ppg.
Memphis averages 21.4 ppg.

Defense:
East Carolina allows an average of 23.1 ppg.
Memphis allows an average of 29.9 ppg.

My Take:
I compared the power rankings of each team’s opponents played so far and it was basically even. Just a decimal point edge to East Carolina but nowhere enough to give an edge. So I looked at games of common opponents and this is where I see a decided advantage to East Carolina since they beat both opponents the two have in common and Memphis lost to both. Both teams have a few minor injuries that I could find but nothing that should really affect this week’s game.

Program:
East Carolina by 10 which gives me 6 points of value against current line.


Play:

East Carolina -4*

[wal66]

ole miss , ga tech , utepp, penn state , tennesee , ok state , oregon

Our most popular Picks
one guy has yet to get his picks in for me
it seems like it might be fun once again
got lot of underdogs to mactchup also that excites me after only having one underdog last week Iowa who initailly was a favorite

If you care I would also like to see your monday picks
Just a poll at this point want hold them against you ,

Its a part of my process that I would also like to include you in

Crush this is the only game I have finished at this time. The others will be tomorrow or even Wedensday maybe. I do know there will be tleast one of the games you have listed as one of my plays from my original list.

[wal66]

Crush......Oregon is definately on my radar and I am looking at Georgia Tech and Penn St a little further.

[Cougar Bait]

One thing I did notice is ECU hasn't played very well on the road...still looking at this one...Memphis has a lot of trouble stopping the run.

[WesJeffery]

Great Post Guys, Love your insight on games. Wal, you rated East Carolina a 4 Star, how confident are you? And on your rating system do you have 5 or 10 starS?

[wal66]

Great Post Guys, Love your insight on games. Wal, you rated East Carolina a 4 Star, how confident are you? And on your rating system do you have 5 or 10 starS?

Not a 4 star play. The line is -4.

The * indicates number of units on a game. Every * equals 1 unit.

[wal66]

I'm down so it can climb to wherever now.

Crush 2 questions for you. How old are you? Are you American? I generally make-up voices when reading differnt posters replies or threads and I'm drawing a blank on you.