HARRY'S WEEK #8 PLAYS (28-19 on the season)
Only went 3-3 on my sides plays last week, bringing the season tally to 28-19. Got hot with my totals plays though, going 5-0 and bringing the season record to 20-9. Overall, that's 48 wins against 28 losses. Gonna hope to keep it up this week with the following sides.....
ILLINOIS +11 at PURDUE
I know, I know....the Illini are terrible. 0-6 ATS this season. But that's just it, they are overdue. And no, it's not like the guy who sees a coin flip come up heads 6 times in a row so he bets tails, figuring it's overdue. The coin flip is always a 50/50 proposition regardless of any previous results. The difference in college football is that the Vegas boys keep re-calculating the Illini's power-rating, so mathematically they are due to cover. If these two teams were playing at this venue back in early September, Illinois would've been a 7-point favorite (by my power-ratings anyway). Today they finally bring home the cash. The forecast calls for rain, which should benefit the Illini's superior rush attack. Gotta believe that the Boilermakers will also be feeling a bit of a letdown after last week's stunning defeat of Ohio State. Take the points.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7- at BOWLING GREEN
The Chippewas have been on a bit of a roll, winning 5 straight after a season-opening loss at Arizona. Included in that streak was an impressive victory over Michigan State in their house. Today they face the Falcons of Bowling Green on a day when the forecast is calling for rain. To me, rain benefits the team that rushes the ball better. Advantage Chippewas. They're averaging 4.7 ypc and Bowling Green has been allowing a whopping 5.8 ypc. Do the math and you'll see that Central Michigan will have no problem moving the chains today. Lay it.
MICHIGAN STATE -2 against IOWA
I took it on the chin betting against these Hawkeyes last week, but plan on getting my money back right here. Iowa has been quite impressive this year. They've been doing it with a stiff D and by winning the turnover battle. Tonight though they're up against a Spartans team that has turned their season around and can put themselves in the hunt for the Big-10 title with a victory here. Michigan State should use the raucous home crowd to their advantage and pop the Hawkeyes' cherry.
UCLA +7- at ARIZONA
The good news for the Bruins in their drubbing to California last week was that they finally were able to put the ball into the endzone. This Arizona team has been impressive in their methodical approach. They've done a nice job of mixing up the run and the pass. They're up against a pretty good defense today and may have a hard time lighting up the scoreboard. Getting over a touchdown with UCLA seems like the play.
MISSISSIPPI -6- against ARKANSAS
The Razorbacks are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. After putting up a helluva scrap against Florida last week, Arkansas is gonna have a tough time getting emotionally ready for this game. The Rebels meanwhile are licking their lips, ready to feast on the wounded Hogs. Snead and company worked out a lot of offensive kinks last week in their romp over UAB. Mississippi can officially get their season back on track with a convincing win here. Lay the wood.
SMU +15- at HOUSTON
Houston has already had a great season, knocking off 2 Big-12 powerhouses and Mississippi State from the SEC. This team can score and score fast. With that prolific passing attack they'll probably put up close to 40 tonight. The Mustangs can score too. Last week they put up 35 against Navy, who has a better defense than Houston. This one will be a shootout but I'll take the generous points with SMU and their aerial attack.
MICHIGAN +4 against PENN STATE
It's tough to win on the road in the Big-10. It's particularly tough when you're facing a team that's way faster and more skilled than you on offense. Penn State has a good defense but they won't be able to totally shut down this Wolverine team, who has a truckload of momentum after scoring 63 points last week. These kids are starting to learn how to run Coach Rod's offense. Take the points, and don't be afraid to bet Michigan on the moneyline as well.
My college "Total Package" plays will soon follow.
As always, best of luck.
Harry
2009 college football sides 28-19
2009 college football totals 20-9
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