[cakasmaloy]

I recently posted a thread titled "I think im on to something" ... basically it addresses the value in using line movement to pick winning sides. It wasnt until i posted this thread and received feedback that i even considered looking at TOTALS (over/unders) to see how this theory can be translated... well, the results are shocking, but true as you can verify yourself using SBRodds.com --> click SCOREBOARD and review the past weeks of college football totals.

I researched the last 3 weeks of all college football games and looked at the O/U for every game (NO FILTERS). If the O/U shifted 2 (TWO) points or MORE in either direction from OPEN to CLOSE then the game qualifies... The results posted below are legit... do not waste anyone's time bashing b/c you can easily gotto SBRODDS.com yourself and look at the data... it takes 10 minutes to check all the games this season.


TOTAL RECORD FROM WEEKS 4, 5, and 6:

45-18-3

[stats13]

ah, the guy who thinks everything can be figured out. thanks for taking the role

[cakasmaloy]

ah, the guy who thinks everything can be figured out. thanks for taking the role

its actually a fairly simple concept... i think even you could grasp it. before doubting the truth...gotto sbrodds.com and follow my instructions

[cakasmaloy]

For documentation purposes:

Pit U45.5
Ncst u47
Osu u45.5
Virg u48
Wf o48.5
Uab o54
Army u36.5
Cmich o58.5
Usc o50
Hou o67.5
TT o61
CSU o51
Byu u53
Lousvil u44.5
Ark o58
Utah o60.5

[Dbldown11]

Wow...impressive. But how can you post those plays since they may move back tomorrow?

[iLogan]

Maybe those are on his watchlist, idk...

[cakasmaloy]

ur right... these are the ones that have already moved. i think the best way to play this is to bet them right before kickoff to ensure a 2pt minimum shift has occurred from OPEN to CLOSE

[PeePee]

Let me see if I got it correctly. So, if the line move down by 2+ pts from opening to closing before kick off then Under is the play, and vice versa for Over. Thanks for clarification.

[cakasmaloy]

Let me see if I got it correctly. So, if the line move down by 2+ pts from opening to closing before kick off then Under is the play, and vice versa for Over. Thanks for clarification.

no, to clarify... you bet whichever way it has moved 2 pts... so for example, TEAMx/TEAMy
OPEN: O/U 56
CLOSE: O/U 59.5
Bet OVER 59.5

OR

TEAMa/TEAMb
OPEN: O/U 42
CLOSE: O/U 39
Bet UNDER 39

[investor]

I sometimes use something like this for the NFL. IF a team moves 2 points within 2 hours before game time, i actually go the other way. Lots of times bookies like to let the public load up on the favorite, and it's better to just take the bookies side on it.

[cakasmaloy]

I sometimes use something like this for the NFL. IF a team moves 2 points within 2 hours before game time, i actually go the other way. Lots of times bookies like to let the public load up on the favorite, and it's better to just take the bookies side on it.

i understand ur logic there, but i think this differs b/c it deals with the total and not the side

[iLogan]

I sometimes use something like this for the NFL. IF a team moves 2 points within 2 hours before game time, i actually go the other way. Lots of times bookies like to let the public load up on the favorite, and it's better to just take the bookies side on it.

It appears that, from looking at sbr odds, going the opposite of the O/U movement is they way to go with the NFL O/U also...

[snapstick]

Another example was the Falcons/49ers game last Sunday. On Sunday morning the line was 49ers -3. Within 30 min before gametime the line dropped to 49ers -1. The 9ers lost by 30

[1958]

no, to clarify... you bet whichever way it has moved 2 pts... so for example, TEAMx/TEAMy
OPEN: O/U 56
CLOSE: O/U 59.5
Bet OVER 59.5

OR

TEAMa/TEAMb
OPEN: O/U 42
CLOSE: O/U 39
Bet UNDER 39

what if line goes from 56 over to let say 61? you still play over ? is there a limit ?

[cakasmaloy]

what if line goes from 56 over to let say 61? you still play over ? is there a limit ?

id still take the over yes... if you look at the historical data... the games more often then not cover the O/U by a significant amount if it has shifted by THAT much (5pts)

[ghetto1]

For documentation purposes:

Pit U45.5
Ncst u47
Osu u45.5
Virg u48
Wf o48.5
Uab o54
Army u36.5
Cmich o58.5
Usc o50
Hou o67.5
TT o61
CSU o51
Byu u53
Lousvil u44.5
Ark o58
Utah o60.5

is that o/u for tonight and sat? so pitt game go under tonight? im lookin at vegasider.com site open o/u is 49 and it drop down 45.5 ....that 3.5 pioint different

[cakasmaloy]

one of the main poitns behind this is that you must play ALL of the games... or at least a large majority... if you do, it seems as though the odds are in your favor to hit at least 60% over all

[cakasmaloy]

is that o/u for tonight and sat? so pitt game go under tonight? im lookin at vegasider.com site open o/u is 49 and it drop down 45.5 ....that 3.5 pioint different

yea i'd play the under.... you cant look at this on a game by game basis though...

[ghetto1]

yea i'd play the under.... you cant look at this on a game by game basis though...

what u mean by cant look at this on a game by game basis though?

[ghetto1]

ok do u have a trend for this CAKAS....open spread pitt -3 now it jump up to pitt -6.5 is there any trend or trick u can tell me?

[PeePee]

I'll run a test and throw $50 on all those picks this week. Let's see how it goes.

[PeePee]

Using this info checking against week 6 (last week) in college, it's a staggering 15-3. Wow... gotto check the rest before pulling the trigger with heavier $

[cakasmaloy]

Using this info checking against week 6 (last week) in college, it's a staggering 15-3. Wow... gotto check the rest before pulling the trigger with heavier $

yes, it works and it will work. pull the trigger. just make sure if you're going to do it that you bet AT least 75% of the games... i suggest betting ALL of them, EQUALLY. good luck

[jdub1617]

good find

[CashIn]

can u clarify at some point the plays the qualify for this that you will be playing?

[polson22]

cakas, absolutely love your stuff. thank you, and my own experience is that NCAAF O/U is outrageously soft (like basically no one cares if it's wrong, or fairly close to that)...... can you though differentiate opening line, 2 point move line and closing line? or at very least , whether that great record you mentioned is based on the opening line?

a little torn on the 5 point O/U moves, like some others......... generally though have no problems going with the flow.

[RoagBettor]

Great thread! You're absolutely right, you have to play every game, if you try to pick and choose then your own bias comes into play.

Trust the system.

[freeVICK]

which book are you using for the line movements? say bodog shows a 2 point movement but bookmaker shows 1.5... what to you do?

you should test this system on last years games during this time (week 7 or so)

[Brutski]

Penn State has moved from 48 to 46 plus I live in State College and the weather is going to be really bad tomorrow. We already have 3 inches of snow on the ground and expecting more overnight. It's calling for Rain/Snow mix for kickoff.

[TheGambler]

I will say that i used to use a similar system as this when i played with my local. he would use the line from the newspaper and i would play every o/u that moved more than 3 points. I went back and looked at my spreadsheets and i hit around 65% every year doing this. I always tried to middle each of these as well and the funny thing is that I only hit a few of them each year meaning that they usually didn't come close to the opening or closing line.

[pimike]

[pimike]

Penn State has moved from 48 to 46 plus I live in State College and the weather is going to be really bad tomorrow. We already have 3 inches of snow on the ground and expecting more overnight. It's calling for Rain/Snow mix for kickoff.

Nice Dad didn't tell me he had snow

[bluelabga]

What book do you use for opening and closing lines!!!!

[PeePee]

2-1 so far this week with U Pit today.
Looks like there are many tomorrow.

[Brutski]

Can't wait to see what happens tomorrow.