10-14-09, 10:24 AM
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#1
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Fading the Public (LEANS)
These are LEANS. I repeat leans.
I have learned this season that simply fading the public on plays that I feel are coin-flips, is profitable. I am in the top 1 percentile on Yahoo's College Pick'em(ATS). I'm 74-39, that is a 65% clip. I will post screen picks for proof, but here are my fades(LEANS).
Purdue +13.5(Ohio State was very fortunate last week)
Wisconsin -2.5(Oddsmakers realize mistake, and switch the favorite)
Oklahoma +3.5(WHO IN THE HELL HAS TEXAS BEAT???) Okla has two 1 point losses on the road
TX Tech +10.5(Way too many points for a potent offense that keeps them from getting blowout)
Minnesota +17(WHO HAS PEEN ST BEAT???) I have played this at +16.5
Colorado St. +22(TCU hasn't covered a spread like this all year)
Colorado +9.5(Kansas defense is a hologram)
UCF +15.5(Miami on the road, going against guys they played with/against in high school. I smell a close game)
Mizzou +7(Ok St. has a multitude of distractions, and their starting RB maybe out for the season.) Ok St.'s defense is a mirage)
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10-14-09, 10:31 AM
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#2
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10-14-09, 10:34 AM
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#3
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My record. Impeccable Huh?
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10-14-09, 01:56 PM
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#4
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i like ur leans a lot, gotta be honest. by any chance do u have a personal record thus far this season for ncaaf on the games u actually wagered on
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10-14-09, 02:10 PM
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#6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoulihansTX
Purdue +13.5(Ohio State was very fortunate last week)
Wisconsin -2.5(Oddsmakers realize mistake, and switch the favorite)
Oklahoma +3.5(WHO IN THE HELL HAS TEXAS BEAT???) Okla has two 1 point losses on the road
Minnesota +17(WHO HAS PEEN ST BEAT???) I have played this at +16.5
Colorado St. +22(TCU hasn't covered a spread like this all year)
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I like Ohio State to cover this because they've covered all but like once this season for me. I'm just not convinced that Wisky is the favorite here. I think they will get blown out. I like the Oklahoma play, Texas seems too obvious. I think that Penn State is for real this year, they also covered almost every time this year and the line moves up each week. I don't see TCU blowing CSU out like that, good play.
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10-14-09, 02:21 PM
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#7
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iLogan--might want to check that Penn St statement. I maybe wrong but I think they have covered only once ( which was NIU this past week ) and maybe one more time. They lost to Iowa and they were the favorite. Just my 2-cents..
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10-14-09, 02:23 PM
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#8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iLogan
I like Ohio State to cover this because they've covered all but like once this season for me. I'm just not convinced that Wisky is the favorite here. I think they will get blown out. I like the Oklahoma play, Texas seems too obvious. I think that Penn State is for real this year, they also covered almost every time this year and the line moves up each week. I don't see TCU blowing CSU out like that, good play.
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They lost at home to Iowa in a shit excuse for a football game. And have played nobodies all season. I don't think anyone can conclude this team is FOR REAL until they beat someone of consequence.
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10-14-09, 02:27 PM
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#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Superman455
iLogan--might want to check that Penn St statement. I maybe wrong but I think they have covered only once ( which was NIU this past week ) and maybe one more time. They lost to Iowa and they were the favorite. Just my 2-cents..
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They didn't even play Northern Illiinois(a respectable team), it was Eastern Illinois. That game didn't even come equip with a point-spread. Penn State loads up on cupcakes in order to stay a top the polls, cuz they know they can float around on their name. They try and fix up their schedule so they only have to play a couple teams a year that can actually beat them handedly.
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10-14-09, 02:27 PM
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#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Superman455
iLogan--might want to check that Penn St statement. I maybe wrong but I think they have covered only once ( which was NIU this past week ) and maybe one more time. They lost to Iowa and they were the favorite. Just my 2-cents..
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Yup, you're right. They covered 2 of 3 times I took 'em, and the other games I didn't get a chance to log a ticket if one was offered.
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10-14-09, 02:33 PM
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#11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoulihansTX
They lost at home to Iowa in a shit excuse for a football game. And have played nobodies all season. I don't think anyone can conclude this team is FOR REAL until they beat someone of consequence.
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Well with their weak remaining schedule, I WILL continue to bet with them. BOL to you. 
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10-14-09, 02:36 PM
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#12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iLogan
Well with their weak remaining schedule, I WILL continue to bet with them. BOL to you. |
and the same to you.
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10-14-09, 02:39 PM
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#13
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I might have to get the CU money line vs. KU. KU has OU next weekend and this is their first true test on the road. Their defense can't stop anyone.
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10-14-09, 02:41 PM
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#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoulihansTX
and the same to you.
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Houlihans, did you take Nebraska on the road or Mizzou at home last week?
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10-14-09, 02:46 PM
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#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iLogan
Yup, you're right. They covered 2 of 3 times I took 'em, and the other games I didn't get a chance to log a ticket if one was offered.
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Minnesota is a better team than they are given credit for. On top of that, they have not played ANY gimme gamesall year. They are prepared and actually have an outside chance of winning this game straight up.
I would put some money on the under (50) too if I wasn't already confident that Minnesota will cover. Already got 4 units on them, probably will double that before game time.
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10-14-09, 03:16 PM
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#16
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hey man i like your pics, looks like you put some thought in them, and i can see your reasoning, i just don't see how come people get so deffensive when their pick hood is challenged,(not you necessairly) i do this for fun maybe others do it for other reasons, i have double my balance this year, i started with 200.00 and have 400.00 i do not wager what alot of people do...with that being said, i really like your minnesota play i too will be on that play
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10-14-09, 05:05 PM
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#17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iLogan
Houlihans, did you take Nebraska on the road or Mizzou at home last week?
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I leaned Nebraska, but I bet the UNDER 53. Thank God for the rain, or Nebraska would have scored 60.
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10-14-09, 08:35 PM
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#18
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love the Colorado play, i replaced my ASU pick with Colorado.
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10-14-09, 11:24 PM
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#19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ackem19
love the Colorado play, i replaced my ASU pick with Colorado.
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Ml may be the play also. Kansas has been flirting with disaster lately.
Also my favorite prognosticator, Phil Steele, feels the same.
Colorado is 15-5 hosting Big 12 North teams and the home team is 9-3. QB Hawkins is averaging 223 yards per game (51%) with a 9-9 ratio but Head Coach Hawkins pulled the redshirt off Hansen (17 yds, 60%) last week. Kansas is only one of 9 unbeatens left in the FBS but did look suspect last week on defense allowing 512 to Iowa St. QB Reesing is averaging 316 yards per game (69%) with a 13-3 ratio. Colorado is ranked #66 in my pass efficiency defense allowing 219 yards per game (63%) with an 8-3 ratio. Colorado Head Coach Hawkins is on the hottest seat opening 1-4 with 3 straight losing seasons and is in a must-win situation vs a poor road team (Kansas 12-31) and remember Colorado was up 14-3 last week vs the #3 team in the nation and held them to just 313 yards (200 yards below season average). Kansas has a BIG game against Oklahoma on deck at home and when I did radio shows in Kansas this summer they were talking about that game and the possibility of an upset. That could mean some look ahead is involved also.
PHIL’S FORECAST: COLORADO 31 KANSAS 27
--- Citation PhilSteele.com
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