[luckyutah]

first time poster; long time lurker. i haven't seen a thread on this thursday's game, so i thought i would start it.

both teams off last week. cinci's offense is legit and the win at org. st. was pretty good as they seemed in control for most of the game even though it was a long road trip. they snuck by an underrated fresno team at home and did not come close to covering. i don't think they have seen a defense like usf yet, but then again, i don't think usf has seen an offense like cinci's either (fla. st. maybe?).

cinci has had usf's number recently, but i think last year was closer than the score showed (24-10) and two years ago, usf had 7 or 8 turnovers. for USF, it seems 2-3 weeks too early for them to tank - might have to wait unitl WVU for that. plus, usf really seems to show up on these big weekday home games -- WVU two years ago (thursday) and kansas last year (friday). plus, home dog on a thursday game - sounds solid.

i think usf tries to slow the game down, but cinci only needs about 58 seconds to score. whoever has the most big palys should win. in the end, i can't talk myslef into either side and may stay away. thoughts?

[xxxvince]

gl

[Mac4Lyfe]

Nice writeup LU... I look forward to seeing more post from you in the future.

Your right on with your assessments and I'm having a hard time leaning either side. I originally sided with USF because of their defensive line and being at home but this may be the game their freshman QB plays like one. If Groethe was playing I'd have zero doubt USF would win this game based on his experience. W/o him I think it's a tossup. I think Cinci's defense is going to stack the box and force the pass and that may spell USF's doom.

This may be a flip a coin play for me...

[SlickRick24]

I got USF at +3.5. BJ Daniels is playing with a lot of confidence. USF has a stout defense and are playing at home on a nationally televised Thursday night game.

[Dbldown11]

Love USF in this spot

[twincities77]

The two teams look evenly matched to me; I've got the line around -3/-2.5 for USF, so I like the play USF +3. Also USF tends to have a great home field for a smaller conference team. As a fan I'm looking forward to see how Cinn's offense goes up against the USF defense; both are outstanding and the USF defense is going to be juiced up for this game.

[BigdaddyQH]

This is a very tough game to call. We all know what Cincy brings to the table. South Florida is an enigma. They are 5-0, but have played no one. They have played two FCS teams, and 3 teams under .500. They tend to do very well against tough teams in their conference at home, but this is also the time of year they tend to go into hybernation for a few games. The fact that they are 0-5 ATS in the past 5 meetings does not help their cause.

Cincinnatti has defeated some pretty good opponents on the road, including Rutgers and Oregon State. With a very low line, (-1.5 to -3 in Vegas), Cincy looks tempting.

[twincities77]

Rutgers isn't a good team imo, and they're my favorite college team.

[Jpound21]

Cincy -3 is the play for me. I've watched Cincy all season and if you give a coach like Brian Kelly 2 weeks to prepare for USF's defense he should be able to pick them apart. Pike is also looking to solidify his heisman contention so look for great numbers out of pike... UC also has great special teams so it will def. be a great game. I still think UC wins by 10-13 pts. Cincy is also returning i believe 3 key guys who have missed time due to injury so this is the healthiest the cats have been all season. Look for Gilyard and Woods to catch alot of screens and use their athletic ability to get some yac's. I love seeing the BEast get the national stage on Thursday night but it will be the Cats coming out victorious.

[iLogan]

Originally Posted by Jpound21

Cincy -3 is the play for me. I've watched Cincy all season and if you give a coach like Brian Kelly 2 weeks to prepare for USF's defense he should be able to pick them apart. Pike is also looking to solidify his heisman contention so look for great numbers out of pike... UC also has great special teams so it will def. be a great game. I still think UC wins by 10-13 pts. Cincy is also returning i believe 3 key guys who have missed time due to injury so this is the healthiest the cats have been all season. Look for Gilyard and Woods to catch alot of screens and use their athletic ability to get some yac's. I love seeing the BEast get the national stage on Thursday night but it will be the Cats coming out victorious.

Cincy -3 logged a few days ago, BOL

[coolbreeze02]

over or under?

[G's pks]

Originally Posted by Jpound21

Cincy -3 is the play for me. I've watched Cincy all season and if you give a coach like Brian Kelly 2 weeks to prepare for USF's defense he should be able to pick them apart. Pike is also looking to solidify his heisman contention so look for great numbers out of pike... UC also has great special teams so it will def. be a great game. I still think UC wins by 10-13 pts. Cincy is also returning i believe 3 key guys who have missed time due to injury so this is the healthiest the cats have been all season. Look for Gilyard and Woods to catch alot of screens and use their athletic ability to get some yac's. I love seeing the BEast get the national stage on Thursday night but it will be the Cats coming out victorious.

Very nice review...

[Dbldown11]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

This is a very tough game to call. We all know what Cincy brings to the table. South Florida is an enigma. They are 5-0, but have played no one. They have played two FCS teams, and 3 teams under .500. They tend to do very well against tough teams in their conference at home, but this is also the time of year they tend to go into hybernation for a few games. The fact that they are 0-5 ATS in the past 5 meetings does not help their cause.

Cincinnatti has defeated some pretty good opponents on the road, including Rutgers and Oregon State. With a very low line, (-1.5 to -3 in Vegas), Cincy looks tempting.

In another thread you basically tell other people they are idiots and using false stats and blah blah blah....then you come in here and make this statement:

"Cincinnatti has defeated some pretty good opponents on the road, including Rutgers and Oregon St."

#1) Those are their only two road wins besides Miami Ohio
#2) Rutgers is absolutely horrible not a pretty good opponent, they are on a 4 game winning streak since being dismanttled by Cincy with the 4 wins against Howard, Florida International (by 8 at home), Maryland, and Texas Southern
#3) Cincy gave up more points on the road to Miami Ohio (arguably worst team in Div 1A) than Kentucky, Boise St., or Northwestern COMBINED.
#4) Cincy scored less points on the road to Miami Ohio (arguably worst team in Div 1A) than Kentucky, Boise, or Western Michigan.

And I'll point out again....you mention that S. Florida has only played 2 FCS teams, but don't mention that Cincy has also only played 2?

And is a road win to Florida St. less impressive than a road win at Oregon St.???? I don't think so

[madmaxx]

good info here, tough game to cap

[Wilforth]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

South Florida is an enigma. They are 5-0, but have played no one.

How are they 5-0 if they've played no one?

[Jpound21]

a couple trends for those of you who follow them....

Bearcats are 15-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulls are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Head to Head

• Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  
  
  Im not saying...im just saying Go cats.

[TPowell]

guy, trends are useless. South Florida at home is very tough. Especially for teams like Cincy that are offense based teams. I believe I'm gonna make a small play on USF

[blanc0]

tbh i don't see how all these 'old' stats have such a big influence on many cappers' choices..
when someone says "their last 5 meetings.." i guess we're talking about a timespan of at least a few years?
So many things can change in even 1 year. new players / new playing style / team chemistry / individual improvement / other competition ...

I really don't mean to flame anyone, i'm just looking for info since i'm pretty new to all this. So Jpound please don't take this the wrong way, i'm only posting this because i've seen it so many times & i just don't get it

In school, my teachers always tought me that you can prove anything you want with the right statistics, but in the end they have no influence on an undecided event, they just say what happened in the past.

I understand that you keep those statistics in mind if none of the previous variables have changed over the used timeline, but in sports that's never the case as far as i know.

could anyone clear this up for me plx?

[teaserpleaser]

Originally Posted by Wilforth

How are they 5-0 if they've played no one?

[clarkd32]

anyone have a good weather report for tonights game?

[Mr Handicapable]

This game reminds me of the Kansas game at USF last year...atleast I think it was last year? The road team comes in with the better QB/Coach (imo anyway) vs a more athletic team at home! USF squeaked it out vs Kansas but I think Cincy squeaks out this one? No play for me....gonna sit back and enjoy!

[Dbldown11]

Originally Posted by blanc0

tbh i don't see how all these 'old' stats have such a big influence on many cappers' choices..
when someone says "their last 5 meetings.." i guess we're talking about a timespan of at least a few years?
So many things can change in even 1 year. new players / new playing style / team chemistry / individual improvement / other competition ...

I really don't mean to flame anyone, i'm just looking for info since i'm pretty new to all this. So Jpound please don't take this the wrong way, i'm only posting this because i've seen it so many times & i just don't get it

In school, my teachers always tought me that you can prove anything you want with the right statistics, but in the end they have no influence on an undecided event, they just say what happened in the past.

I understand that you keep those statistics in mind if none of the previous variables have changed over the used timeline, but in sports that's never the case as far as i know.

could anyone clear this up for me plx?

You sir are 100% correct. Unless the statistics are from the last year or two with the same players, same schemes, same situations. and keep in mind WHO KNOWS WHAT THE LINES WERE IN THOSE ATS TRENDS, they mean nothing.

[xyzky]

[quote=Dbldown11;
And is a road win to Florida St. less impressive than a road win at Oregon St.???? I don't think so[/QUOTE]

Actually, I think traveling all the way across country at Oregon St is very difficult...

[Dbldown11]

Originally Posted by xyzky

Actually, I think traveling all the way across country at Oregon St is very difficult...

Yeah I think that was a good win for Cincy....I'm just saying it's not MORE impressive than S. Florida winning at Florida St.

[PorkyPig]

The weather report says isolated thunderstorms. With a high probability of rain, I believe UNDER is the right call. Also, a slight RLM favors the UNDER even more.

[mcbaseball10]

Originally Posted by PorkyPig

The weather report says isolated thunderstorms. With a high probability of rain, I believe UNDER is the right call. Also, a slight RLM favors the UNDER even more.

I wouldn't base an under play on the forecast in South Florida. Its calling for isolated storms, the same forecast they give the majority of the time from June-November.

[PorkyPig]

Yeah, but my gut tells me that two 5-0 teams will pay a bit more attention to their defense

[RPP]

Originally Posted by Dbldown11

In another thread you basically tell other people they are idiots and using false stats and blah blah blah....then you come in here and make this statement:

"Cincinnatti has defeated some pretty good opponents on the road, including Rutgers and Oregon St."

#1) Those are their only two road wins besides Miami Ohio
#2) Rutgers is absolutely horrible not a pretty good opponent, they are on a 4 game winning streak since being dismanttled by Cincy with the 4 wins against Howard, Florida International (by 8 at home), Maryland, and Texas Southern
#3) Cincy gave up more points on the road to Miami Ohio (arguably worst team in Div 1A) than Kentucky, Boise St., or Northwestern COMBINED.
#4) Cincy scored less points on the road to Miami Ohio (arguably worst team in Div 1A) than Kentucky, Boise, or Western Michigan.

And I'll point out again....you mention that S. Florida has only played 2 FCS teams, but don't mention that Cincy has also only played 2?

And is a road win to Florida St. less impressive than a road win at Oregon St.???? I don't think so

You can't put too much stuck in that Miami game. Miami is one of our rivals, only an hour or so away. Also the Bearcats were looking to next week.

[Dbldown11]

Originally Posted by RPP

You can't put too much stuck in that Miami game. Miami is one of our rivals, only an hour or so away. Also the Bearcats were looking to next week.

Who cares if they are a rival? They are one of if not the worst teams in NCAA if you're the #8 team in the nation you beat the shit out of them Rivalry or no rivalry.

And they were looking ahead to a game 12 days away? when it's a big rivalry?

Sounds like you're a homer that is searching big guy

[rdrunner466]

Well I can say this I live in south florida and it is 90 right now may get a storm or 2 but doubtfull by gametime also I was leaning toward SF until I saw Langs pic (SF) So Cincy it is GL everyone

[Dbldown11]

Originally Posted by rdrunner466

Well I can say this I live in south florida and it is 90 right now may get a storm or 2 but doubtfull by gametime also I was leaning toward SF until I saw Langs pic (SF) So Cincy it is GL everyone

If you're leaning towards a team.....then completely change sides cause ur fading someone you're nuts. Not to mention that no one loses all the time. He was right about ULM on Tuesday...

[rdrunner466]

I hear ya not a big play for me but did that last night and it worked for me. I loved Boise but bet on Tulsa because of him. I understand can't loose all of the time and he has been ok on his free plays but his 30-50 dime plays have been terrible just saying.

[A Mayland]

Oregon St (4-2) is a much better team than Florida State (2-4)...FSU isnt going to make a bowl game this year and they almost lost to Jacksonville St. Oregon St just beat Stanford who is a really good team this year. You can't even compare these two teams. Another thing (which was brought up in previous posts) it's much harder to travel across the nation than it is to travel 3 hrs on a bus

[Dbldown11]

Originally Posted by A Mayland

Oregon St (4-2) is a much better team than Florida State (2-4)...FSU isnt going to make a bowl game this year and they almost lost to Jacksonville St. Oregon St just beat Stanford who is a really good team this year. You can't even compare these two teams. Another thing (which was brought up in previous posts) it's much harder to travel across the nation than it is to travel 3 hrs on a bus

I completely disagree with that statement.....I think Florida St. would beat up on Oregon St.

[Dbldown11]

Oregon St. beat UNLV by 2.... if you want to talk about almost losing to bad teams