[Go42]

Hey I’m new to the forum and thought I would kick things off with a write up. BTW I apologize for the rambling format but I am writing this on the fly. I am admittedly a huge Alabama fan but always try to look at things objectively and keep my heart out of it. With that said I think Alabama dominates this game and covers the 15.5. From what I have seen most people on this forum and others like Arky because they “can score points” and they have Ryan Mallet. I think there is a lot more to it than that.

Arky O

Mallet is a very good qb with a strong arm and can throw the ball deep. He has already thrown for 855 yds, 8 tds, and 1 int in just 2 games. He also has passer rating of 184. But Mallet has compiled those gaudy stats against a D-ll team and a very bad UGA defense that gave up 313 yards passing to Stephen Garcia and USC the week before. They spread the ball around well to 3 receivers (all sophomores) who have greatly improved since last year.

The rushing game is an afterthought at 221 yards. They only gained 77 yds vs UGA for 3.2 ypc. There feature back Smith is listed at 180 and not a threat between the tackles. Smith was a 1,000 yard rusher a year ago. There o-line got dominated on running plays. This also explains their lack of success on third down conversions 25% on the year and 3 of 14 vs UGA. But they did well in pass protection against UGA. This was aided by the fact that UGA did not bring a lot of pressure. They only had 1 sack and 1 hurry. The entire O-line has good size across the board.

Bama O

The QB play for Bama IMHO has improved greatly from last year. McElroy can make the throws and has a strong enough arm. He also reads through his progression well. (Last year JPW didn’t know wtf a progression was). For the season McElroy is 46 out of 69 for 647 yds, 4 tds, and 1 int. He set a school record with 14 straight completions vs FIU and another the following week vs UNT for completion %(13 of 15 87%). This adds a much needed balance to the offense. Bama has passed for at least 230 yds and rushed for 260 in all 3 games this season.

The RB depth chart is stellar and legitimately 3 deep. Ingram, Richardson, and Upchurch are all averaging over 6 yards a carry. Upchurch is nursing a high ankle sprain but is practicing this week after sitting out vs UNT. This is leaving out Grant who has been passed up but ran for 900 yards in 2007. The o-line is not as dominant as last year but still strong on the left side. The weak link is RT Drew Davis.

Bama D

Bama again has one of the top units in the country but its weakness is the secondary. Arenas and Jackson are good in coverage and run support. The safeties are big and better in run support than in coverage. The loss of FS Johnson to the NFL is showing and the 1st year starter Barron struggled early but has shown improvement week to week. With that said there still above average even by SEC standards. The true weakness is the 3rd DB on the field Marquis Johnson #24. He has improved his coverage but is still the target of opposing offenses. With that being said they have only given up 143 yds a game through the air.

The front seven are arguably the best in the country with 4 potential first rounders. They are only giving up 42 yds a game on the ground. This ranks them 3rd in the nation in total defense. The group is anchored by Cody who weighs in at 350+. He commands a double team and allows the MLB duo of Hightower and McClain to make plays. Bama has 10 sacks 24 tfl and 10 hurries. (Note Hurries were not recorded by the retards at the Georgia Dome but I think it’s safe to add another 6 to that total.) The DL is stacked and 2 deep. If that sounds arrogant take into account that the sack leader is # 57 Dareus who started the season # 2 on the depth chart behind Deadrick. He is the best pass rusher and should have a big day against pass happy Arkansas. The pass rush is greatly improved from last year under LB coach Sal Sunseri. This should help balance the loss of Johnson in the secondary.

Arky D

There are not a lot of positives for this group as was evident last Saturday when they got torched for 52 at home. Sheppard anchors the D-line and is damn good DE who can do everything but just does not have a lot of talent around him. The other bright spot and defensive leader is the senior LB Davis. He was ejected at the beginning of the second quarter vs UGA and his loss was greatly felt. A lot of Arky fans seem to think that his loss cost them a shot at the game. But the reality is Cox had open receivers all over the place and they could not even effectively double cover Green. It was also during the second quarter when UGA OC Bobo realized that he could actually call something other than a toss play. There safeties were constantly out of position and made no in-game adjustments of consequence. This is the fault of D coordinator Robinson who is the replacement for Johnson, now at South Carolina. They also have little depth which will take its toll as the game progresses.

What I see happening

After watching and rewatching every game of the two teams here is what I have come up with. Mallet has phenomenal touch on the deep ball and a strong arm to get it there. But his footwork breaks down under pressure and he tends to float balls. He is not nearly as an effective passer when he can’t step in to his throws. This is because he hates to be hit. He gets the hell out of dodge when defenders are in sight. This will definitely be a problem for him Saturday since there a 1 dimensional team. Bama should be able to confuse him with coverages and get a good deal of pressure. This doesn’t mean he won’t make great throws and have big plays, I think he will, but just not with the frequency of the last few weeks. It is also his first SEC road start. I think he will be frustrated early on and make some bad decisions after he is popped a few times.

Bama has been extremely balanced all year and moved the ball with ease. The only problem has been finishing drives in the redzone. But I don’t see the Arky D being able to stop them. In the Arky vs UGA game the middle of the field was wide open for the run and pass all night. They had way too many breakdowns to fix in just 1 week. Look for Julio and Ingram to have monster days . Teams won’t be able to effectively double Julio (Finally!) since the WR and TE corp have emerged. The talent gap in this game is huge and the 3rd year of the Nick Saban offseason conditioning program is really starting to show.

Special teams play could play a significant role in this game if Bama continues its shitty kick coverage. They have given up 2 TDs on the year (another was called back on a hold that was away from the play). The weakness has been the right side of the line. If Tiffin kicks from the right hash and the ball goes left watch out.
Alright that’s it for now.

[twentyonekid]

BAMA ROLLS HERE.....ROLLTIDE


MALLET isn't facing a weak defense like georgia this week,he'll be running for his life this week

[ImmaBammer12]

Great write up Go42!! Dead on with all your assesments of each side of the ball for the teams. Bama has looked great against these greatly inferior teams they've played the past two weeks. Now, we truly find out what they are made of as we start conference play against some better rounded opponents.

Out of all things last weekend that continues to mystify me to no end is how the hell does Tiffin continue to be so inconsistant. How does he miss extra points but can hit a 34 yard field goal? WTF? It's not like he has anything else to really worry about being good at. They aren't asking him to run and block some 300lb guy, pass the ball, run the ball and I'm betting he doesn't even have to learn the play book either. He just has to practice lining up and kicking that ball through the goal posts. Sure I'm not belittling the skill it takes to be a kicker but damn it's not like there's that much else on his plate he has to learn to do.

Back to the topic at hand, my only concern now is whether Bama can cover -17 pts as the line was at today at Sportsbook.com. Just yesterday it was -15.5. Then again I never thought Bama would cover almost 40 pts last weekend either.

[The General]

Welcome to SBR

[ImmaBammer12]

WOW!!! I can't believe the spread on this game. Monday it was 15.5 and tonight(Wednesday) it's 17.5. What in the world is pushing up so much in a short time? Is Bama looking to be that much of a overwhelming favor? I don't know SEC games always make me nervous.

[DwightShrute]

sorry, cant bet on a team with BAMA in it. Too much like Obama

[Givemhell Horns]

What do you SEC fans think about LSU/MSU? Kinda like MSU +14

[BadNina]

awesome write up! And I think it was dead on except that Cody has lost weight and is under 350 now. Go Cody!!!!!!

[Go42]

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[COLOR=#000000 !important]awesome write up! And I think it was dead on except that Cody has lost weight and is under 350 now. Go Cody!!!!!![/color]

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[COLOR=#000000 !important]Not quite Saban said he had to be <= 350 to play in the 3rd down "rabbit" package and that he wasn'tquite there yet.[/color]
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[COLOR=#000000 !important]What do you SEC fans think about LSU/MSU? Kinda like MSU +14[/color]

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[COLOR=#000000 !important]Initially I did too but after watching MSU some more I don't think their version of the spread will hold up very well vs LSU with Tyson Lee at QB. But its a 11:30 kick off and LSU hasn't found a good rythm on offense to this point. I think i'll just watch the first half and bet the second half. I think LSU pulls away in the second half.[/color]
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[BadNina]

I am fairly certain I read last week where he is in the upper 340s now and Coach Saban and some NFL scouts told him he needs to be at 340lbs. I loved watching him play FB and knock that poor defender 4 yards back.

[ImmaBammer12]

Bet LSU and give the points. It's a safe bet. MSU hasn't played anyone to be considered a worthy opponent yet. I believe Washington to be a better opponent for LSU after this past weekends defeat of USC. If Auburn can put that many(and more) points on them then LSU surely can.

[ZBOIZ]

Bet LSU in this game. This number is going down due to the fact that LSU dont cover BIG SPREADS that much on the road in the SEC. But Mississippi St. is horrid on offense. I think the final will be 31-6.

[ZBOIZ]

And I do think Arkansas covers the 17 at Alabama. That is way to much points to give to an SEC team.

Very inflated line.