Alittle inside on tonite game
Boise St. at Fresno St.
September 17, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Following a pair of dominant wins on the smurf turf, Boise State (2-0 straight up, 2-0 against the spread) is poised to go on the road for the first time when it opens WAC play Friday night in Fresno.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Broncos as 10-point favorites with a total of 54. As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Boise St. installed as a 7 ½-point ‘chalk.’ Fresno St. (1-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) is plus-240 on the money line (risk $100 to win $240).
Chris Petersen’s program has become the gold standard for non-BCS schools and appears on its way to possibly earning a berth in a BCS bowl game like it did in 2006. On Petersen’s watch, BSU has compiled an incredible 37-4 SU record to go with a 23-15 spread mark.
The Broncos started the season by destroying Oregon 19-8 as three-point home favorites in a game that wasn’t nearly as close the final score indicated. They didn’t allow the Ducks to get a first down until the third quarter.
AdvertisementAnd that’s where we see the progress made by Boise St., which has always been a juggernaut offensively. Now the Broncos are playing outstanding defense. That unit was on display last week, dealing Miami (OH.) a shutout in a 48-0 win as 40-point favorites.
The Ducks mustered only six first downs and 152 yards of total offense against BSU. The RedHawks produced just 194 net yards. By my math, that has the Broncos allowing just 4.0 points and 173 yards per game.
Fresno St. started the season by destroying UC Davis 51-0 in a non-lined affair. In Week 2, the Bulldogs went to Camp Randall and returned home with a heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin by a 34-31 count in double overtime. Although Pat Hill’s team came up shy of knocking off yet another BCS school on the road, it did hook up its backers with winning tickets as a nine-point road underdog.
Throughout Hill’s 13-year tenure in Fresno, the Bulldogs have lived by the mantra of “anybody, anytime and anywhere.” On that note, they have been to the nation’s toughest venues and held their own more often than not. Hill has outright wins at Oregon, at Colorado, at Wisconsin, at Washington, at UCLA and at Kansas St. on his resume.
But those non-conference games have seemingly taken their toll on the Bulldogs, who often invade the top-25 rankings in September only to fall apart in league play. After winning at Rutgers and at UCLA last season, the Bulldogs limped to a 4-4 record against WAC foes and finished fifth in the conference.
"I really feel like Pat Hill's Fresno St. program has gone soft in recent years," VegasInsider.com handicapper James Manos said at the VI Seminar in late August. "They just don't have the toughness they've had in the past anymore."
Fresno has lost seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings against Boise St. These teams were tied at 10-10 late in the second quarter of last year’s encounter, but the Broncos responded with 51 unanswered points en route to an easy spread cover.
FSU has to be disappointed about coming up short in its upset bid against the Badgers. The Bulldogs had more yards (468-413) and first downs (24-19) than Wisconsin, which had as many as 40 players with flu-like symptoms as recently as the Tuesday before the game.
For the most part, Hill has to like what he’s seeing from junior quarterback Nate Colburn, who came into the year having attempted just five career passes. Colburn has completed 27-of-45 passes for 450 yards and five touchdowns. The blemish on his numbers is four interceptions, including one on the first play of double OT. However, Colburn made several clutch throws to force that second extra session. Petersen is certainly thrilled with the play of his sophomore QB, Kellen Moore. After a fabulous freshman campaign, Moore has just picked up where he left off. To date, he has connected on 64.8 percent of his passes with a 5/1 touchdown-interception ratio. His favorite targets are Austin Pettis and Titus Young. Pettis has made 10 receptions for 183 yards and two touchdowns, while Young had hauled in 11 catches for 160 yards and two TDs. D.J. Harper has emerged as the go-to guy on the ground, rushing 32 times for 177 yards and two TDs.
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Originally Posted by brooks85
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