[stingyrivers]

what's up fellas.... i pop in and out of here on and off throughout the sports calendar, which is indicative that I start out with peanuts and go broke often....

anyway, I am back, trying to put together an old strategy that I have tried to use and with others here had decent success with in NCAAB, particularly in March madness....

the idea is, huge ML favs teamed together in ML parlays that offer a return that has some value... seeing that online books actually offer ML for the 20 point favs, it seems like it could work the same in NCAAF....

In my quick count of last season, 17+ home favs won straight up at a 132-12 clip last year... seems to me to indicate by making these plays, you will pick up a loss or two over the season, bit there is a chance at a profit....

Last week I jumped in and put together a 15 team ML parlay with 14 of the teams as 17 or better point favs, all 14 of those teams won straight up... my mistake, going against the strategy and plugging in ND as number 15 to make the payout 3-1 when the payout for the first 14 was even money already...

anyway, you see the point, this week, here are 6 teams as a core for the play are:

Penn St
Florida
LSU
Ohio St
USC
Texas

the payout on just these 6 would be roughly -300

which that in itself seems the most solid 33 percent return i have ever seen....

anyway, other candidates this week:

Michigan
Kansas
Air Force
So Miss
Okla
Cal
Ndame (i am a glutton for punishment)
* BC 17 (buy 10 points -790)


any combination of the first 6 with 3 of the added list puts the odds at about a -120 payout....


any thoughts? I need help guys, thanks, hell we a great week to week thread in NCAAB with a lot of good contributors on these plays the year before last, if these continue to pan out, maybe this can start that again?

My only request is replies in this thread be thoughtful, thanks guys

[Ralphie1412]

ask machine choice, in week one he did the same thing and Oklahoma lost.

[stingyrivers]

yeah i saw OU was a 23 point fav, but i woulda stayed away in that game, one aspect i like in these plays is powerhouses against much inferior teams on a completely lower level, BYU had a ranking at the time, kind of dangerous, that is often where the upsets pop up.... am i crazy in think those first 6 do not lose straight up this weekend?

[stingyrivers]

thanks awholelotta... yeah the trick with these is dodging those landmine teams... I dont particularly like any teams all that strongly on the add on list, which is why i got the dilemma, the first 6 together only pay a 33% return on wager, not good value in that... maybe pairing the top six with the Vikings, Redskins is the good play this week, that would get close to even money on 8 teams that should all win by DD

[stingyrivers]

bump really need some feedback guys thanks

[hova24e]

Can be profitable, but you are truly rolling the dice. Think about that 12, it could be 1 loss a week.......................

[stingyrivers]

yeah thats what happened to me last saturday, 14-1 but only because of my own stupidity and bucking the strategy and throwing in a 3 pt fav to up the payout, falling for the Irish will roll line, painful loss too going 14-1 in a 15 teamer and watching how the irish let that cash slip away

[RoagBettor]

The first 6 are solid. Adding any other team from your second list significantly reduces your odds of winning. Any of those other teams can lose this week.

[stingyrivers]

ok... opinions on this one... estimated odds used based on the spreads

ML Parlay

Florida
Lsu
Penn St
USC
Ohio St
Texas
Vikings
Redskins

at -110


do we see any losers in this??

Thanks for the input

[PacmanJr_00]

You don't like AZ.State or Stanford ML for your parlay?

[jackpot269]

yeah i saw OU was a 23 point fav, but i woulda stayed away in that game, one aspect i like in these plays is powerhouses against much inferior teams on a completely lower level, BYU had a ranking at the time, kind of dangerous, that is often where the upsets pop up.... am i crazy in think those first 6 do not lose straight up this weekend?

Florida Is playing Tenn.

[polson22]

good luck OP, you seem to know the pitfalls or people have pointed them out.

have to agree on the oklahoma-byu. not a math expert, but i think that game could have had fatter tails than a normal distribution suggests. byu had some chance (yes, i played them point spread) and ok had some chance of just destroying them by 40+... but basically BYU was quality team as 21 point underdog.... CMU is similar situation vs. mich state.... some others too.

obviously some hindsight in my above paragraph but if you're going to parlay i would stay away from quality opponents even for an "unstoppable team" like florida. tennesse doesn't quite qualify as quality in my books, but it's close.