[Rondo09]

Hopefully creating a new thread for week 2 isnt a problem - the other one was getting a big long.

Week 2 RLM considerations (keep an eye on)

Va Tech vs. Marshall
- 75% on Va Tech. The line opened at the Hokies -19.5. It is now down eveyrwhere to -19, and -18.5 on Bookmaker and BetJamaica.

Army vs. Duke
- 66% on Army. This game opened as a PK, and is now Army +1 at most places.

BYU vs. Tulane
- 66% on BYU. BYU opened as an 18 point favorite, it is now BYU -17.5 across the board.

TCU vs. Virginia
- 65% on TCU. TCU opened -12, now they are -11 mostly everwhere, and -10.5 at a few sites.

Please feel free to add any insight or make a correction. This is interesting, especially considering the popularity of BYU and TCU as favorites on this site this weekend.

[CaneDawg]

good info

[FreeFall]

Mich +3.5 is the only one I'm trying to get right now. We'll see how the other ones play out tom.

[KingKing]

thanks very much for compiling this info.... best of luck!

[JimmyJet]

I see USC -7 with 73% on Ohio State per sportsbookspy. SBR shows consensus at 62% USC. There are over 10,000 wagers on this game. If you take posted percentages from sportsbookspy than USC would be RLM. Is that a correct read?

[mcbaseball10]

If the opener was -6 and it moved to -7 then it would be RLM with the 73% on Ohio State..and USC would be the play

[JimmyJet]

I do not understand why SBR and Sportsbookspy have such drastically different percentages. Can anyone enlighten me?

[mcbaseball10]

Probably pull their numbers from different books

[JimmyJet]

Sportsbookspy shows opener at -4.5.

[JimmyJet]

Rondo, where do you take your numbers from? Have always used Sportsbookspy for my against the money plays with pretty good success. Do you feel their numbers are real?

[mcbaseball10]

If you are trying to play RLM, you want to play it after a 1 point move. After the 1 point move (according to people such as LT Profits that have written on this philosophy) you have already missed out on the number you want to grab.

[JimmyJet]

These three games are taken from Sportsbookspy and are of onterest because over 10,000 bets and percentages higher than 70%.

UCLA Opener +10 Current +10 13,913 bets with 80% on Tennessee...no line movement

Notre Dame Opener -3 Current -3 15,917 bets with 70% on Michigan...no line movement

USC Opener -4.5 Current -7 16,324 bets with 73% on Ohio State...2.5 points movement against USC...USC would be RLM based on this data.

[Biff Webster]

I have always trusted vegasinsider.com, and their numbers are nowhere close to what you have for percentages and opening lines. Take a look, they have the lines for the Las Vegas Hilton as well as Sportsbook.com

[Rondo09]

I took my lines and percentages from SBR.

[Rondo09]

Wyoming is currently an RLM play.

[FreeFall]

I'd wait for more than ~3k bets.

[Rondo09]

I'd wait for more than ~3k bets.

Like I said, I dont know how to see how many bets have come in.

Thanks for the help, though.

[The HOFF]

Louisiana Tech +7 against Navy. Opened at +7.5 or +8. RLM more than 70% on Navy.

[CLASSIC ROCK]

Anybody seeing anything else.Thought we might take advantage of bet jam reduced juice tonight

[JimmyJet]

Based on Sportsbookspy:

319 Miss St
320 Auburn -15 to -14 95% on Auburn 15,671 bets tallied

361 Kansas -10.5 to -12.5 73% on UTEP 10,201 bets tallied
362 UTEP

[alexda[]]

If the opener was -6 and it moved to -7 then it would be RLM with the 73% on Ohio State..and USC would be the play

pretty sure he mistyped because its most likely usc with the 73%

[JimmyJet]

09/12/09373USC-4½3393628%22%41%42%8:00PM374Ohio St.46½+7-105u45.5-11072%78%59%58%

NO MISTYPED....copied from Sportsbookspy at pregame site.