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  1. #1

    Default WEEK #2 PICKS (7-0 last week)

    Fully realize that following up last week's undefeated card is not going to be easy. Being that it's early in the season, most teams are playing games out of conference. And there are a lot of mismatches. With that in mind, my gameplan this week is to isolate good teams who are playing vastly inferior foes and who want to make an early season impression on the pollsters.

    PENN STATE -29 against SYRACUSE

    Gotta believe the hoopster Paulus, Syracuse's QB, is in for a long afternoon. On the other side of the ball, the Nittany Lions racked up over 500 yards of offense last week against Akron. They should match that total again this week. Don't see the Orange scoring more than a touchdown. Lay it.

    VIRGINIA TECH - 19 against MARSHALL

    The Hokies are no doubt a bit battered and bruised after last week's tussle against 'Bama. This one smells of a sandwich game with Nebraska on deck next week. But everyone knows VT is well coached so I look for the boys to rebound nicely in their home opener. The Thundering Herd almost got beat by Southern Illinois last week and will lose by about 4 TDs today.

    IOWA -6- at IOWA STATE

    This rivalry has been won by the home team the past 5 years. Additionally the Cyclones are 10-1 ATS over the past 11 in this series. But Iowa got a much needed wake-up call last week when they survived by blocking 2 FGs in the final minutes. This week they get their running game on track and win by about 17.

    BYU -17- at TULANE

    The entire country watched as the Cougars stunned Oklahoma last week. With Florida State on tap for next week it seems like a perfect spot for a letdown. It is....they'll only trounce the hapless Green Wave by 24 instead of 35. Take the chalk.

    TEXAS -33- at WYOMING

    Wyoming had all they could handle last week against Weber St. Now they have to tackle a Longhorns squad looking to gain momentum for the upcoming conference games. The Horns faithful were disappointed by last week's backdoor cover by UL-Monroe. It won't happen again this week. The Cowboys will be lucky to score and Texas will score at least 50.

    TCU -11 at VIRGINIA

    You gotta wonder about the state of the Cavaliers program when they lose their home opener to William & Mary...by nearly 2 TDs. Now they have to face a much better team. The only good news is that this is TCU's first game of the season. That's not good enough. The Horned Frogs defense will dominate and they should win by about 28-7.

    FLORIDA -36- against TROY

    Urban Meyer knows that one of the teams playing in Columbus, Ohio this week is gonna impress the pollsters. He also knows that Texas is going to romp. What's a coach to do? Make sure he remains ranked #1 for starters. Meyer will unleash the dogs (or Gators in this case) against a Troy team that couldn't even handle Bowling Green's offense last week. Gimme a break. Gators, 55-zip.


    As always, best of luck.
    Harry

  2. #2

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    what does this guy have to do to get some love?

    i'll be tailing yous

  3. #3
    AdamL2424's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Im all over the TCU game with you

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    Good Luck..I am already on the Florida game

  5. #5

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    Great first week Harry...and with that name you need a picture of Carrey and Daniels up there for your avatar...BOL

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    i like this card very much.. thanks for sharing and may your good run continue. b o l..........

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    great,nice job last week
    this guy is a pro among pro's

  8. #8

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    good luck with the card:

    two plays on there that stand out to me:

    VaTech- should drill a hapless Herd team

    Florida-Meyer will cover for those hungry alums.

    gl everybody

  9. #9

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    The criteria for selecting these picks is very sound. Never knew there was a guy who went 7-0 last week. You may not duplicate that success this week, but you'll sure end on a high.
    Thanks for posting

  10. #10

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    You know why I like Harry (other than the obvious)? He's one of the few cappers who understands the "gambler's fallacy." When he says, "I'm not a big trends follower" (unlike 95% of the know nothings who post picks either as professionals or ams), he is telling you all you need to know. He understands probability. Probability is immutable, like the laws of gravity.

    To wit: red coming up 25 times in a row on a roulette wheel does not mean the odds suddenly favor black coming up next. The 26th turn of the wheel is still 50/50 (ignoring zero or double zero for this example). If you don't get this you shouldn't be gambling. You should just take your stake and donate it to a charity and spend more time with the family.

    And yet virtually every capper ignores something you should have learned in 8th grade. Every coin toss, every spin of the wheel, every game is a new event and reverts back to original probability. Now ball games are sllightly different creatures of course, being played by humans, but if a capper justifies his pick by saying things like 'they've gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games, you know you're dealing with an idiot. The past is not necessarily prologue. Different players, different coaches, blown calls, injuries etc have affected all those past events. I'm not saying don't look at the RECENT past, but for god's sake read up on elementary probability and you too will stop being a losing "trend follower" who goes back into ancient history to justify a pick. The most meaningless statistic in the world is what teams have done at home, away, or ATS over the past few seasons. It is meaningless.
    Best of luck Harry. Just discovered you; will be very interested in following your picks. HtH
    Points Awarded:

    Dan gave HarrytheHat 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.


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    BTW, when I said 'besides the obvious', I wasn't referring to our names. I was tallking about his well reasoned arguments for his picks and of course his record. Just to clear things up. HtH

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    i'll bite. not gonna put much down as those are some big spreads, but we shall see!
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/21/2012

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/24/2012

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/14/2012

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/17/2012


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    Man, you started out on fire! Keep up the the good work. I'm with you on the Gators.

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    I'm with you on TCU and BYU.

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    When are you posting the next picks?

  20. #20

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    Keep it up bro. Appreciate seeing the thoughts/picks

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