Mike Man's NCAAF System Plays
I've backtested this system with data from the last four years and I'm trying it out live for the first time this year, so I thought I'd share my picks along the way.
I will be taking the away underdog on the spread and ML in certain games. To qualify, the following three criteria must be met:
1) The closing line at Pinnacle for the home team must be from 0 to -10.
2) The away underdog must be taken by only 0 - 32% of the betting public (as determined by SportsInsights).
3) In comparing the opening and closing lines at Pinnacle for the home team, a smart money move must occur (i.e. the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting public as determined by SportsInsights).
Here's how the system tested the last four years:
2005: Spread 12-5 +5.9 units, ML 11-6 +23.6 units
2006: Spread 16-12 +2.5 units, ML 14-14 +13.1 units
2007: Spread 19-8 +9.3 units, ML 11-16 +4.0 units
2008: Spread 18-4 +12.4 units, ML 14-8 +27.4 units.
I can't promise that I will be able to post every games when it becomes official (on occasion line move or betting percentage changes at the last minute will make make or unmake a game a play), but I will do my best to post them ahead of time.
This week's plays so far (subject to change up to gametime):
Missouri
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Originally Posted by Mike Man
UAB, Kent, Clemson, UCLA, and Arizona St currently qualify with Maryland very close. Back later to make them official.