09-04-09, 12:48 PM
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#1
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College RLM -- Reverse Line Movement Tester
The goal of this thread is to find reverse line movement in college football. This is a test thread that will be used to discuss RLM, and how it can be effectively used. In theory, RLM should be applicable to college ball just as much as NFL.
For those of you unfamiliar with RLM...
"Reverse line movement (RLM) is a clear indication of who the sharps are on. If over 60% of the public is on one team, yet the line moves the opposite way, it is not the squares that are moving the line." -LT Profits
For more information check this out:
http://ltprofits.mysbrforum.com/blog...g-profits.html
Don't be afraid to throw in your two cents and help us all gain a better understanding of line movement. |
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09-04-09, 12:53 PM
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#2
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I'll also be keeping track of some games that aren't necessarily RLM, but are getting a ton of action on one side with little to no line movement at all.
DL and I have had success with this at the NFL level, but haven't given at a good go at the NCAAF level yet. This should be a fun thread to keep track of this season!
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09-04-09, 12:54 PM
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#3
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I am taking interest in the Missouri/Illinois game...
07/30 09:07 – / – +6 -110 / -6 -110
08/09 18:13 22% / 78% +7 -120 / -7 +100
08/09 23:13 23% / 77% +6½ -110 / -6½ -110
08/11 09:01 24% / 76% +7 -120 / -7 +100
08/13 11:47 28% / 72% +7 -115 / -7 -105
08/13 15:33 27% / 73% +6½ -110 / -6½ -110
08/19 17:57 31% / 69% +7 -120 / -7 +100
08/22 16:59 30% / 70% +7 -115 / -7 -105
08/24 16:27 31% / 69% +7 -120 / -7 +100
08/31 10:32 33% / 67% +7 -120 / -7 +100
09/02 14:55 34% / 66% +6½ -110 / -6½ -110
Obviously not a full point in movement but the line seems to be drifting the opposite way you would think considering Illinois is receiving 65%+
Missouri might end up being a play, not sure if it really qualifies (not at the moment at least)
Anyone else see some potential RLM games?
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09-04-09, 01:06 PM
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#4
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That betting pattern doesn't seem too out of the ordinary, looks like people were still happy to take the +7 even at -120, so it was moved back to -6.5.
Plus, some of these early season lines will have a lot of natural adjusting anyway, so we'll have to be careful in trying to discern them. Later in the season when lines are sharper it should be a lot easier.
Is there a percentage trigger you usually look for? I'm usually looking for 70%+ on the side to fade.
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09-04-09, 03:00 PM
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#5
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Official SBR Points Leader
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no RLM on games around the 3 and 7 to me
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09-04-09, 07:27 PM
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#6
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I think college ball we should do a 70/30 and see how that works (sort of arbitrary but those numbers seem logical)...
TPowell...how come no RLM on games around 3 and 7?
Also, I am not getting numbers on the numbers of bets placed from sbrodds, do we have access to such information. I believe LT said that there needs to be at least 10,000 bets to determine if RLM is actually occurring.
Anyone see any games this week exhibiting RLM (or potential RLM)
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09-04-09, 07:33 PM
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#7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeLiner
I think college ball we should do a 70/30 and see how that works (sort of arbitrary but those numbers seem logical)...
TPowell...how come no RLM on games around 3 and 7?
Also, I am not getting numbers on the numbers of bets placed from sbrodds, do we have access to such information. I believe LT said that there needs to be at least 10,000 bets to determine if RLM is actually occurring.
Anyone see any games this week exhibiting RLM (or potential RLM)
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Agreed on 70/30 and 10000 as good starting points... we'll make an exception or two I'm sure, but I like this as a rule of thumb.
Will give it another good look over tonight, lots of bets will be coming in tonight  .
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09-04-09, 07:33 PM
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#8
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Official SBR Points Leader
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always look RIGHT before the game, usually Sat. morning to make sure its a true RLM play. My college football record was all from RLM last year
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09-04-09, 09:27 PM
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#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TPowell
always look RIGHT before the game, usually Sat. morning to make sure its a true RLM play. My college football record was all from RLM last year
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You can't wait THAT long to bet because value may be totally sucked out of line by then. You should bet as soon as line has moved one point off of opener, as that is how records are kept.
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09-04-09, 09:33 PM
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#10
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Official SBR Points Leader
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I've always had a lot of look on waiting..... not as much on picking them at all times.
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09-05-09, 06:51 AM
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#11
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I am going to try and find RLM plays a few hours before game time. Post if you come across any!
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09-05-09, 08:07 AM
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#12
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Official SBR Points Leader
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Toledo
Army
Middle Tenn. State
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09-05-09, 08:10 AM
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#13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TPowell
Toledo
Army
Middle Tenn. State
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Missouri is, but, not playing that one.
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09-05-09, 09:50 AM
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#14
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So Missouri, Arizona, Toledo are showing RLM but they don't meet the 70/30 and 1 full point of movement criteria. Mid Tenn State is showing normal movement.
1. Army +3.5
Please correct me if my analysis of the above games was wrong. Any other games??
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09-05-09, 12:19 PM
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#15
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it's 60/40 reads your article...
Toledo made it.
Check Florida St
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09-05-09, 01:39 PM
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#16
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Army +3.5 is definitely worth making an exception for... didn't hit 10,000 plays or 70/30, but 34/66 spread and 32/68 ML and the line moves two points AGAINST Eastern Michigan... that's good enough for me.
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09-05-09, 01:42 PM
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#17
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DL, what are you seeing on the Louisiana Tech/Auburn game? No RLM, but not much movement at all for what looks to be lopsided action on Auburn.
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09-05-09, 02:13 PM
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#18
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VegasDave Army is fine it's over 60% like the first post said and LT said. If it aint broke don't fix it.
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09-05-09, 02:20 PM
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#19
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SEASON 0-0-0, 0 Units
SEASON PLAY 1: Army +3.5, -110
**Edit, not going to play, not enough bets and cloudy on opening line**
Last edited by VegasDave; 09-05-09 at 03:02 PM.
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09-05-09, 02:22 PM
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#20
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Hmmm, SBRodds.com said the Army game had an opener of 1.0... SportsInsights said it was 5.5. Any confirmation we can get?
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09-05-09, 02:32 PM
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#21
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Sorry guys I just woke up. Little late to the first day. I'll go through and tell you what I see.
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09-05-09, 02:39 PM
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#22
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Army +3.5 with 5613 bets on them 64/36. Not enough bets yet.
No Ill+15.5 with 14985 bets 61/39. Play.
Toledo wasn't a play my fault percentages changed at game time and I only have odds 30 minutes later.
Middle Tenn St needs more bets
Co st Col needs percentages to move
Florida state is one for the future
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09-05-09, 06:06 PM
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#23
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Army No Ill Middle Tenn St.
Thats it for today
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09-05-09, 09:40 PM
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#24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VegasDave
DL, what are you seeing on the Louisiana Tech/Auburn game? No RLM, but not much movement at all for what looks to be lopsided action on Auburn.
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We should discuss games like this one for the future...
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09-05-09, 09:45 PM
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#25
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okay for tracking purposes
Army +3.5
No Illinois +15.5
Louisiana Tech +11.5
Middle Tenn St +18.5
were all RLM plays today
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09-05-09, 10:12 PM
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#26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeFall
Middle Tenn St +18.5
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How so? SBR Odds showing 58% on MTS.
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09-05-09, 10:18 PM
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#27
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Army winner!!!
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09-05-09, 10:54 PM
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#28
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Official SBR Points Leader
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Tech and State both lost
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09-05-09, 11:19 PM
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#29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bishop
How so? SBR Odds showing 58% on MTS.
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SBR uses 5dimes which is full of squares. I use pinnacles lines with insightsports.
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09-05-09, 11:24 PM
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#30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeFall
SBR uses 5dimes which is full of squares. I use pinnacles lines with insightsports.
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OK. MTS is the sharp side. 58% of 5dimes is on MTS. How is 5dimes full of squares? 58% of their clientele is apparently on the sharp side...
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09-06-09, 05:32 AM
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#31
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So I only made one play Saturday and that was Army +3.5 which they were able to win. There would have been no play today if we kept strictly to the 70/30 and 10,000 bets with at least 1 point of movement. The Army game had 2 points of movement with over 9,000 bets and was close in the upper 60s. This was the only game I felt RLM was clear enough to move forward.
Should we count this Army game into record? should we include tech and state? or none of them?
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09-06-09, 06:15 AM
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#32
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Curious about Ole Miss Sunday afternoon. The line is stuck at -17.5, but the line should be 20 or more.
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09-06-09, 09:43 AM
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#33
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Army was the only play I made also. You are going to have very few games with this ,which is good. If none meet the action required then taking the one team that is closest may be the way to go. The 2 pt swing with Army was major enough to make it a play
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09-06-09, 10:54 AM
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#34
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I don't know what you guys are doing anymore. LT clearly laid out the rules for how to do this. Now you have subjectively changed everyone except for the points moving? Are you implying you've backed track this new way of doing RLM with70/30 and your own concensus numbers of 9k? Even so Army didn't fit that either.
Do what LT does...
Co State +10.5
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09-06-09, 10:58 AM
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#35
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colorado state is some rlm too!
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