goblue12's system plays
Hello everyone! First post here so go easy on me.
I know everyone is excited about college football so I'll get right to it. This thread will strictly be used for tracking 5 systems which I believe are successful.
DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT TAKING CREDIT FOR ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS. I HAVE DISCOVERED THEM AT VARIOUS SPORTS BETTING FORUMS (THE RX, STATFOX, ETC.) AND ALL OF THEM WERE CREATED BY OTHER POSTERS / MEMBERS. ALL I AM DOING IN THIS THREAD IS RELAYING THE INFORMATION POSTED BY THESE MEMBERS TO THIS FORUM, AND TRACKING IT. YOU CAN FIND EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS AT THOSE FORUMS.
System #1: Turnovers
The system is complicated at first, but after backtracking it for a while I have gotten the hang of putting the data into Excel. First, you need to find each teams OFF PPG and DEF PPG. Next, you need to find each teams Turnover Margin (all data can be found on the NCAA's statistics website).
After you have those numbers, find the games that have a team with the following in their data...
- One team has a negative or zero turnover margin on the year
- One team has a positive turnover margin on the year.
The turnover differential needs to be 7 or greater, with one team having a negative turnover margin and the other having a positive turnover margin.
FINALLY, you have the formula. Next to the OFF PPG / DEF PPG / TURNOVER MARGIN cells for ced team, add a row for homefield. You should award +3 points for the home team, and -3 points for the away team. On neutral field games, do nothing at all. In the next row, add the differential between the two teams (formula for + turnover team: =-sum(Team A turnover margin - Team B turnover margin)/2) for the - turnover team, take out the - sign next to sum.
After you have entered in all the data, it's time to find the projected spread. For the first team, add their OFF PPG, the other teams DEF PPG, their homefield, their turnover differential, and divide by 2 once again. That should give you a reasonable number that the team will score for that day. Follow suit with the other team. It's important that you do NOT add the turnover margin of the team, but the differential (second turnover column).
Of course, I will post an example (and both play) for you guys this week.
Code:TEAM OFFPPG DEFPPG TURNMARGIN HOMEFIELD TURNDIFF PWRRTG PROJSPREAD North Texas 20 47.58 -17 -3 -11 13.25 Ball St. 34.93 20.5 5 3 11 48.255 -35.005 -17.5 South Carolina 20.77 21.08 -11 -3 -9.5 17.29 North Carolina St. 23.46 26.31 8 3 9.5 28.52 -11.23 -3.5
Whenever there is a differential in the power rating and the actual spread of a TD or greater, bet on it.
When to start using the system: Week 1 (then take a break until Week 5 OR when both opponents have played 3 games on the year. I backtracked the results of the past 3 Week 1 games using data from LY and it hit at a very high clip.
2006: 2-0
2007: 4-1
2008: 4-1
I'm guessing that we can cheat and use it for a week, then lay off until we have enough data this year to make it work.
System #2: Strength of Schedule
Don't worry, this one isn't nearly as complex as the last system. The worst is over.
Last year, I followed a SOS system for the bowls that went 12-5 (rumored to go 11-1 in 2007-08 bowl season). Then I said to myself "what if we used this during the regular season"?
The system is very straight forward: Using Jeff Sagarin's ratings, bet against a Top-60 team who has a SOS of 61+ UNLESS they are playing an opponent who has an even higher SOS then this team. I emailed Jeff and he let me know there is no back data to this, so it's a leap of faith for the regular season.
When to start using this system: Week 8 OR when the first BCS poll is released, meaning his CPU #'s are accurate (although I will track it after Week 2).
System #3: Totals
I lied, I have another complex system that requires the use of Excel to find the "plays".
Similar to System 1, you need to use the NCAA's website to find stats. However, you only need to know each team's OFF YPG. First, copy / paste all of the data into an Excel sheet. Next, highlight every teams OFF YPG and find the average per team. It should appear at the bottom information bar of Excel assuming you aren't using an outdated version. Remember that number.
After you have found the info, pair each team with the opponent they are playing that week. Next, add the two teams OFF YPG in the next column, enter in this forumla: =sum(both teams total OFF YPG - average OF YPG) / 7.5 this should give you your own total. Here is an example...
A positive # indicates a play on the OVER, while a negative # indicates a play on the UNDER. You should only play the games that have a differential of 17 or more.Code:TEAM OFF YPG COMB YPG PROJ TOTAL ACT TOTAL DIFF Hawaii 512.08 969.23 77.036 64.5 12.536 Florida 457.15
When to start using this system: Week 5 OR Week 4 assuming both teams have played 3 games apiece.
System 4: Reverse Line Movement
It's an interesting system that holds good principles when it comes to betting. You simply bet when 51% or more of the bets are on the underdog, and the line is moving towards the favorite. The public ALWAYS takes the favorite (even when there is a spread) so this only works when the underdog has the majority. I use Pinnacle to determine line movements, and SBROdds.com for the percentages. I also look at Sports Insights because they compare more books, but Covers.com Consensus Picks could work as well (after all, those people are actual bettors).
Example:
In this situation, you would bet on the Yankees.
When to start using this system: Week 1 . All bets should be in around game time, so constant screen watching is required to follow this system.
System #5: The Pinnacle lean
God bless SBRodds.com for giving us accurate, up-to-date, and most importantly, free lines. It is under several peoples belief that Pinnacle - an .8 cent book - should NEVER have a line better than a .20 cent book. When they do, you should bet on it. I've been following this for ML bets in the MLB and while it doesn't win a high percent, it spits out a ton of plays to compensate.
Example:
When to start using this system: Week 1 . All bets should be in around game time, so constant screen watching is required to follow this system.
I hope this works. I love CFB as much as the next guy and want to make you guys some money. I know that no one is stupid enough to blindly follow someone with one post, so it will take a few weeks in the green for you guys to start paying attention.
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Originally Posted by goblue12
