
Originally Posted by
SoonerBS
Illinois
Ron Zook's teams frustrate the hell out of me as a gambler. Of course, if you ask the fans of the teams he coaches, they might respond in the same way. There is one word he his teams seem to have trouble with everywhere he has ever been -- consistency. After a 9-4 2007 season and a trip to the Rose Bowl, things really looked up for the program. But, then they went a disappointing 5-7 and didn't go to a bowl at all last year. And, there is no rhyme or reason to their wins and losses. For instance, they beat Iowa by 3 points one week and then got riddled by a MAC team, Western Michigan, the next week.
Still, with teams taking a step back this year in the Big Ten, Illinois should be seeing a year where they take a step up. Illinois will have one of the best offenses in the Big Ten. "Juice and the Crew" will consist of one of the best QB/Receiver situations in the FBS this year. Offensively, there are not many holes as this half of the team is a definite positive. Defensively though, they bring back only 5 starters from last year's team. The defensive line is considered the biggest question area as Illinois has had a history of only being sound against teams with weak offensive lines. IF a couple of players look to be fully recovered from last season's injuries though, the line should be strong enough to hold up against the season. The linebacking corps is athletic and the defensive backfield is experienced. The schedule gets a bit hairy the 3rd, 4th and 5th games, but if they can survive that and come out of it with two wins, they will likely be in control of their destiny. Illinois is a definite darkhorse contender for the Big Ten title this season IF they can be CONSISTENT.
Play-On Games:
September 5th versus Missouri: I am seeing some early lines of -2.5 to -3. I'm thinking there is a lot of value in this line if it really comes out at that price because I think Illinois wins this game by 7 points or more. Missouri has won this game the last two years because their offense was just too powerful for Illinois to hold. That should be the other way around this year. My prediction: Illinois 42 and Missouri 30.
October 3rd versus Penn State: Penn State will be coming off a home game with Iowa and this will be their first road trip of the season. Illinois has the personnel to beat a reloading Penn State team at home this year. Illinois could very well be coming off a loss against Ohio State and needing to rebound here for a chance to continue their championship hopes alive, OR they could be coming off a win and know they can't let their guard down here against last year's Big Ten champion. Either way, I think this is a better spot for Illinois than it is for Penn State. My prediction: Illinois 38 and Penn State 30.
November 14th versus Northwestern: This was one of those losses last year that left everybody scratching their heads. It was Illinois' last game of the season and Northwestern squashed their hopes of a second consecutive bowl appearance. This is Northwestern's third game in a row of brutal games as they play Penn State, at Iowa and here at Illinois. Illinois has Minnesota the week before and is staring at a bye-week following this game. My prediction: Illinois 38 and Northwestern 20.