[HoulihansTX]

Wow, this a plethora of info. I don't have time to read right now, but will in the future. What do you think of this future season, and whats your top-ten??

P.S. Oklahoma will lose in the Red River Shootout once again. Stoops shits the bed when it comes to big games lately.

[RICHIE801]

Nice info, CANT WAIT FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL!

[SoonerBS]

Wow, this a plethora of info. I don't have time to read right now, but will in the future. What do you think of this future season, and whats your top-ten??

P.S. Oklahoma will lose in the Red River Shootout once again. Stoops shits the bed when it comes to big games lately.

Houlihan, I'm still putting together my thoughts on all the teams and conferences as I look through all my info. I'll be writing up some write-ups and "play on" games for all the teams and their conferences very soon as I do every Summer. I'll post them as I get them up.

With the name like "Houlihan," you have to be Irish, right? Ever go to the Tipperary Inn in Dallas? One of my favorite Irish bands from Kansas City plays there 4 times a year. The group is called Tullamore."

[SoonerBS]

Nice info, CANT WAIT FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL!

This is always a Looooooonng stretch for all of us football fans . . .

[SoonerBS]

Nice Sooner, lots of good information. I have bought all the college pre season magazines and am stoked for college football to begin! What do you think the spread for Byu vs. Oklahoma will be? I am guessing around 28.
Good stuff you have posted here!

I've seen some guys that are better at linesmaking than I am put the number between 21-24 for this game. I have to be honest with you, playing on a neutral field against a perennially good team like BYU makes me want to take the points in this game -- especially with Oklahoma's offensive line woes. I don't see BYU pulling an upset in this game, but I don't see them laying down, either . . . .

[SoonerBS]

College football teams in line for a decline in '09


Sporting News

Posted: June 10, 2009
Matt Hayes and Dave Curtis

Sporting News college football writers Matt Hayes and Dave Curtis might disagree on their share of topics, but they won't argue this: Boston College and Arizona are in for a mighty tumble.

Last week, Hayes and Curtis each offered five schools they envisioned making the biggest jump in the win column from 2008 to 2009. This week, it's the opposite, as each writer provides five teams he believes will experience the greatest drop in victories.

Dave Curtis' five biggest declines:

1. Rice, minus-6
2008 record: 10-3
2009 projection: 4-8
Here's why: Rice made a magical leap last year, riding a dynamic offense and an energetic coach to a 10-3 record and a Texas Bowl victory. But the pieces aren't here yet for long-term success. The offense loses a record-setting quarterback, plus C-USA's top receiver (Jarett Dillard) and tight end (James Casey). And then there's the defense, which returns a bunch but allowed 33.3 points per game last year. September road trips to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State could end in devastating losses that could spoil any hopes of another bowl.

2. Boston College, minus-5
2008 record: 9-5
2009 projection: 4-8
Here's why: The Eagles haven't caught a break since 2008. Their coach got canned in a tiff with the athletic director. Their assumed quarterback got suspended, then transferred. Their top two defensive linemen from 2008 were high draft picks. Their best linebacker, maybe the country's best linebacker, is fighting cancer. A first-to-worst fall is in play for BC, which takes its new personnel to Clemson, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame -- all before Halloween. Central Michigan's visit following that gauntlet looms as dangerous, too.

3. Texas Tech, minus-4
2008 record: 11-2
2009 projection: 7-6
Here's why: Missouri's the pick du jour to plummet in the Big 12. But the Red Raiders lose too much to contend once again in a South Division that might be better than it was a year ago. The Red Raiders lose the bulk of their offensive line, their two best defensive backs, a Heisman-worthy quarterback and a Heisman-worthy receiver. And Tech has road games at Texas, Oklahoma State and Nebraska, plus improving Baylor and Houston. Throw in a visit from Oklahoma, and Mike Leach might be staring at the Independence Bowl.

4. Arizona, minus-4
2008 record: 8-5
2009 projection: 4-8
Here's why: I'm not ready to bet on Mike Stoops and company as a consistent winner. Last year's success had more to do with a down conference (and a spiritless BYU team in the Las Vegas Bowl) than anything fantastic the Wildcats showed. They'll play a new quarterback in 2009, a new left tackle and a lot of new at linebacker. Six road games dot the schedule, including a daunting mid-September game at Iowa. The 'Zona of old returns, and it might be looking for a new coach come winter.

5. Utah, minus-4
2008 record: 13-0
2009 projection: 9-4
Here's why: Only Florida finished ranked ahead of the Utes in the Associated Press poll, and the Gators return a Heisman winner at quarterback and 11 starters on defense. Utah doesn't, which means the 2009 team might be a victim of 2008's success. The Utes could sweep their home schedule and lose away from Rice-Eccles Stadium to Oregon, BYU, TCU and, say, East Carolina in the Armed Forces Bowl. Nothing to frown about in Salt Lake City. But it's four fewer wins than the dream season.

Matt Hayes' five biggest declines:

1. Boston College, minus-5
2008 record: 9-5
2009 projection: 4-8
Here's why: Where do we begin? How about the quarterback spot, where the Eagles lost a fifth-year starter to graduation and projected starter Dominique Davis -- who started three games last year -- is transferring after being suspended for academic problems. That likely leaves redshirt freshman Justin Tuggle to quarterback the team with a new, first-time coach and two new coordinators. And for added difficulty: Tuggle isn't a pure pro-style passer. The offense likely will have to be changed to work with his dual-threat abilities. There are holes on defense that will be exposed when the offense can't move the ball consistently. New coach Frank Spaziani's job was hard enough, considering the circumstances of replacing a fired coach who led the team to back-to-back appearances in the ACC championship game. The tenuous situation at quarterback could make it untenable.

2. Tulsa, minus-4
2008 record: 11-3
2009 projection: 7-6
Here's why: You simply can't underestimate the impact of the loss of offensive coordinator Guz Malzahn. Especially considering the Golden Hurricane will begin this fall with a new quarterback (for the third time in three years) and without all-time leading rusher Tarrion Adams, a bruiser who never got the credit he deserved in handling a huge load of the offense. That quarterback Jacob Bower didn't embrace the starter's job in spring practice can't be good for a unit that has holes to fill and needed something good to build on through the summer. Freshman Shavodrick Beaver, a four-star recruit who originally committed to Michigan before signing with Tulsa, could be the answer at quarterback. If he is, the offense will struggle early against a schedule that includes four of the first five games on the road.

3. Missouri, minus-4
2008 record: 10-4
2009 projection: 6-7
Here's why: Now we see if Missouri really has turned the corner. The Tigers lost three of the best players in the program's history (QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Chase Coffman) and 22 seniors -- and will start the rebuilding process with two new coordinators. Think about this for a moment: The Tigers had serious issues on defense even when the offense was humming along at 40 points a game. What happens when inexperienced quarterback Blaine Gabbert takes over with a new receiving corps and there are more three-and-outs in the first game than there were in the first half of last season? Here's what happens: The defense gets tired and more pressure is thrown on an offense that has zero time to adjust. This can't end pretty.

4. Arizona, minus-4
2008 record: 8-5
2009 projection: 4-8
Here's why: Mike Stoops has one winning season in five years at Arizona, and his teams have a history of slow starts and lousy performances against non-BCS teams. So what comes to Tucson to start the season, you ask? MAC heavyweight Central Michigan and its dangerous, pass-happy offense. If Arizona loses, all that momentum from last year's bowl season will wash away. That makes things a lot tougher on a team that will inevitably have a quarterback controversy -- Nick Foles or Matt Scott? -- and has a lack of elite players in the defensive front seven. If you can't stop offenses in the Pac-10, you better at least be able to score enough to keep up. A loss to CMU has Arizona staring at a 1-3 record for the month of September (CMU, Northern Arizona, at Iowa, at Oregon State), and a big step back from 2008.

5. Minnesota, minus-3
2008 record: 7-6
2009 projection: 4-8
Here's why: Gone are the lightweight nonconference games and quirky Big Ten schedule rotation. The Gophers go from four gimmes to start the season to three non-con games: at Syracuse (which will not be easy) and home against Air Force and California. The Big Ten schedule includes road games against the league's three best teams: Ohio State, Penn State (back on the schedule) and Iowa -- and a home game against Michigan State (back on the schedule). A defense that collapsed in the second half of last season, giving up 161 points in the last four games, still doesn't have enough speed (never a good sign). It may be deep in the tank after the first month of the season, considering Air Force's triple option attack and Cal's run/pass balance.

Dave Curtis is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at dcurtis@sportingnews.com.

Matt Hayes covers college football for Sporting News and is an analyst on NFL Network's College Football Now. E-mail him at mhayes@sportingnews.com.

[SoonerBS]

Early Top 30 Index

June 10, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com


My “official” pre-season predictions will not come out until August but in the interest of fun and speculation, let’s go ahead and release a way-too-early edition of B.E.’s Top 30 Index.

1-Florida
2-Texas
3-Oklahoma
4-USC
5-Penn St.
6-Alabama
7-Oklahoma St.
8-Ole Miss
9-Boise St.
10-Virginia Tech
11-LSU
12-Ga. Tech
13-Ohio St.
14-Georgia
15-Oregon St.
16-Oregon
17-California
18-North Carolina
19-Iowa
20-Utah
21-TCU
22-Kansas
23-FSU
24-Nebraska
25-East Carolina
26-Clemson
27-Michigan St.
28-West Va.
29-Illinois
30-Texas Tech

Obviously, I feel like the Gators are the clear-cut favorites to repeat, but things – injuries, suspensions, bad bounces, etc. -- happen during the course of a season. Even if things don’t happen for UF, it will have its hands full at LSU and in the SEC Championship Game, assuming it wins the SEC East.

Florida has one of the most generous schedules for SEC standards that I’ve ever seen. Not only do the Gators miss out on Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn from the West on the regular-season schedule, but they also get an open date prior to their toughest regular-season game – at LSU. In addition, the Bayou Bengals have to play at Georgia the previous week.

Who knows what’s going to happen in the Big 12 between Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.? There’s not much separation between that trio of squads. The Cowboys get to host Georgia, Texas, Texas Tech and Missouri, but they have to go to Norman for their regular-season finale.

In the SEC West, it will probably be a three-team race between ‘Bama, LSU and Ole Miss. The Rebels get to host both of those squads and my sleeper in the division, Arkansas.

The Crimson Tide probably have the best overall team in the SEC West, but they are breaking in a new QB (Greg McElroy) and have to play in Oxford, not to mention a testy opener versus Va. Tech at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.

Penn St. is an interesting team to watch in the national-title hunt. The Nittany Lions have four easy home games against non-conference foes and most importantly, they get Ohio St. in Happy Valley. Remember, stud LB Sean Lee returns after missing the 2008 campaign.

As for USC, unlike last season when its toughest games were at home, its toughest games this year are on the road. The Trojans play at Ohio St., at Cal, at Oregon and at ASU. They are likely to trip somewhere and as Big Ten and Pac 10 teams have realized the last few seasons, one loss probably means elimination from the title hunt since both leagues don’t have a championship game (and subsequent win to add to their resume).

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Five new coordinators to watch:

1-Monte Kiffin (Tennessee) – The longtime defensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Bucs is an NFL legend, but how much gas is left in the 69-year-old’s tank? Junior All-American safety Eric Berry will probably provide plenty of energy for the master of the cover-2 scheme. Kiffin coached in college as an assistant at Nebraska and Arkansas from 1966-1979 before taking his only head-coaching job at N.C. St. from 1980-1982. He’s been in the NFL ever since until joining his son at UT.

2-John Chavis (LSU) – Phillip Fulmer didn’t take his pink slip in Knoxville because of Chavis’ defense. That unit was just fine in 2008, but Chavis was dismissed nonetheless. That’s LSU’s gain as Les Miles wisely hired Chavis, who was UT’s d-coordinator the last 14 seasons. The loss of Bo Pelini hurt the Tigers last year, but Chavis will get things corrected on that side of the ball.

3-Mark Whipple (Miami) – Randy Shannon’s future might hinge on this hire. Whipple has been in the NFL since 2004, but he has previous head-coaching stints at the collegiate level at New Haven, Brown and UMass. He’ll need to turn an offense around that finished 89th in the country in yardage in 2008.

4-Gus Malzahn (Auburn) – The Arkansas situation in 2006 got ugly, but Malzahn’s offense thrived at Tulsa the last two years. Gene Chizik’s staff will be under the microscope from the get-go. If Malzahn can get this offense going, the heat won’t be so intense. If not, this could be a very similar drama to the one Malzahn experienced in Fayetteville.

5-Bill Young (Oklahoma St.) – The Cowboys gave up 40 or more points in three of their last four games in 2008. If Young can get this defense playing better, OSU could be a threat to win the Big 12 because the offense is absolutely loaded.

--There are a number of important players that were ruled ineligible due to academics for 2008. Here are a few of those that will be back in 2009 and they are ranked in order of the impact I expect them to have:

1-Mitch Petrus (OL, Arkansas)
2-Mike Williams (WR, Syracuse)
3-Jameel Sewell (QB, Virginia)
4-Paul Warford (CB, Kentucky)
5-E.J. Savannah (LB, Washington)

--Likewise, here are five players coming back from injuries:

1-Jake Locker (QB, Washington)
2-Sean Lee (LB, Penn St.)
3-Trinton Sturdivant (OT, Georgia)
4-Jeff Owens (DT, Georgia)
5-Jamar Chaney (LB, Mississippi St.)

--Ranking the jobs done by new coaches in 2008:
1-Houston Nutt (Ole Miss)
2-Paul Johnson (Ga. Tech)
3-David Cutcliffe (Duke)
4-Bo Pelini (Nebraska)
5-Art Briles (Baylor)

[SoonerBS]

StatFox 2009 College Football Preseason Top 25
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 6/8/2009 at 8:15:00 PM With the 2009 StatFox Edge Football Annual due to be out at the end of the month, we have decided to build the anticipation with the release of our Preseason Top 25. Not surprisingly, Florida, a program that has won two of the last three national championships, is StatFox's choice to become college football’s first repeat national champion since Nebraska in the mid-1990s. Stay tuned to the site for more on the Edge release in the coming weeks, but for now, enjoy our look at some of this year's expected top teams.
The Gators are our pick to win the whole enchilada again for a number of reasons. First, quality quarterback play is paramount and head coach Urban Meyer has Superman in shoulder pads under center in Tim Tebow (30 touchdown passes, 12 rushing scores last season). Tebow has done everything a collegian can do, winning one Heisman and two national titles, but he isn’t resting on his laurels. Knowing that he needs to refine his throwing motion in order to succeed in the NFL, Tebow is working with new Gator quarterbacks coach Scott Loeffler.
Tebow isn’t the only key leader who elected to stay in Gainesville. All 11 starters from last year’s defense—a unit that held Oklahoma to just two touchdowns in last year’s BCS title game—are all back. That group, includes linebacker Brandon Spikes (2008 All-American who recorded a team-high 93 tackles) as well as four 2008 second-team All-SEC performers in Joe Haden (87 tackles), Carlos Dunlap (13.5 sacks), Ahmad Black (seven interceptions) and Jermaine Cunningham. Toss in an All-SEC kick returner in Brandon James and playmakers galore for Tebow to throw and hand off to and it’s easy to imagine the Gators holding up the national title hardware again come January.
1. FLORIDA GATORS

Strengths: Along with one of the nation’s best coaches in Meyer and one of college football’s all-time greats in Tebow, the Gators have 18 starters back in the fold.
Nagging questions: Will the Gators stay hungry? The SEC is college football’s version of the Ultimate Fighting Championship. If you don’t come ready to play each and every Saturday, then you’ll get your teeth knocked in because this conference is chock-full of future pros.
Make or break game: at LSU, Oct. 10. With home games versus Charleston Southern, Troy and Tennessee and then a road trip to Kentucky to open the season, the Gators figure to be 4-0 and No. 1 in the land as they head to Cajun country to play in one of college football’s toughest venues. Win this one and Team Tebow could run the table.
2. OKLAHOMA SOONERS

Strengths: With the reigning Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback (Sam Bradford), two tailbacks who rushed for a combined 2,222 yards and 34 scores in Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray, and a battle-tested defense that returns nine starters, the Sooners have the horses to return to the BCS title game.
Nagging questions: Bradford (4,720 yards, 50 touchdowns, eight interceptions) is as accurate a passer as there is in college. But with four new starters along the offensive line, one wonders if he’ll have anywhere near as much time to stand in the pocket and work his magic.
Make or break game: vs. Texas, Oct. 17. The Sooners will have a pair of interesting early season quizzes to pass versus BYU (Sept. 5) and at Miami, Fla. (Oct. 3), but this showdown in Big D is a must-see affair for any college football fan or NFL scouts worth their salt.
3. TEXAS LONGHORNS

Strengths: The Longhorns will light up scoreboards in 2009 as eight starters return on offense, paced by the pass-catch combo of Colt McCoy (3,859 passing yards, 34 touchdowns) and Jordan Shipley (88 receptions, 1,060 yards, 11 scores).
Nagging questions: Will the Kindle experiment work? Mack Brown has moved linebacker Sergio Kindle (10 sacks) to end to help ease the loss of quarterback harasser Brian Orakpo to NFL riches. It’s worth the gamble because Kindle doesn’t need a GPS system to find his way into enemy backfields and the Longhorns’ linebacking corps still features an All- American candidate in Roddrick Muckelrot (team-best 112 tackles).
Make or break game: vs. Oklahoma, Oct. 17. This battle of top five teams will be one of the most widely anticipated games of the entire season.
4. USC TROJANS

Strengths: Each year, head coach Pete Carroll (88-15 record at USC) loses truckloads of talent to the NFL, but continues to keep on winning. With two young pups in sophomore Aaron Corp and true freshman Matt Barkley competing to replace Mark Sanchez at quarterback, look for Carroll to lean on his tailbacks (C.J. Gable, Stafon Johnson and Joe McKnight) and his Taylor Mays-led defense a little heavier in the early part of the season.
Nagging questions: Can the Trojans keep their string of winning 11 or more games in seven straight seasons intact, even after losing an NCAA-high 11 players in the NFL draft? It won’t be easy. But if one of the young quarterbacks blossom and USC’s all-new starting linebacking corps of Michael Morgan, Chris Galippo and Malcolm Smith is as good as Carroll thinks they are, then expect the Trojans to stay near the top of the national polls.
Make or break game: vs. Ohio State, Sept. 12. After a glorified scrimmage in Week 1 versus San Jose State, the Trojans’ quarterback and rebuilt defense will truly be put to the test in Columbus.
5. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES

Strengths: Frank Beamer is one of the best X-and-O men in the college ranks, a fact that he illustrated last fall by leading the young Hokies to 10 wins and their fourth ACC title in six years. With 16 starters back, most notably tailback Darren Evans and defensive playmakers Jason Worilds, Stephan Virgil and Kam Chancellor, the Hokies will once again be the class of the ACC.
Nagging questions: Quarterback Tyrod Taylor, an absolute blur as a runner, must become a better passer or foes will overload the box in hopes of stopping him and Evans (1,265 rushing yards, 11 scores) from beating them with their feet.
Make or break game: vs. Alabama, Sept. 5. Rather than open with Creampuff University or Cupcake State, the Hokies begin 2009 in Atlanta versus Alabama in a battle of powerhouse teams.
6. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

Strengths: Quarterback Daryll Clark can beat opposing defenses with his arm and feet, while tailback Evan Royster might be the most underrated player in the Big Ten. The healthy return of linebacker Sean Lee, who missed all of last season with a bum knee, gives “Linebacker U” one of those tough-as-a-$2 steak linebackers that all great Penn State teams have.
Nagging questions: Three playmaking wideouts, DerrickWilliams, Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood, must all be replaced and the offensive line needs some serious retooling. But Joe Paterno has plenty of time to plug those holes as the Nittany Lions face an early soft schedule (Akron, Syarcuse and Temple all visit State College) that should be sponsored by Charmin.
Make or break game: vs. Iowa, Sept. 26. After three all-but-but guaranteed wins to start the season, the Nittany Lions will face two tough foes in a row, versus Iowa (Sept. 26) at home and then at Illinois (Oct. 3). Sweep those two and Paterno’s squad should be 9-0 when Ohio State visits in early November.
7. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

Strengths: No college team in America has a better sideline boss than Nick Saban. His defense, a unit that returns nine starters and has a future pro at each level (tackle Terrance Cody, linebacker Roalndo McClain and cornerback Javier Arenas), should be lights out.
Nagging questions:We, at Football Action, were tempted to pick the Tide even higher, but there are some positions with new starters, including quarterback (where John ParkerWilson is gone), left tackle (where All-American Andre Smith is now a rich pro) and safety (where All-SEC performer Rashad Johnson no longer patrols).
Make or break game: vs. Virginia Tech, Sept. 5 at the Georgia Dome.
8. OREGON DUCKS

Strengths: Thanks to the return of eight starters, including quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and running back LeGarrette Blount, first-year head coach Chip Kelly has the makings of another explosive offense. The linebacking corps of Spencer Paysinger, Casey Matthews and Eddie Pleasant is top shelf.
Nagging questions: Can Jordan Holmes do a decent job of replacing center Max Unger, a 2009 first-round draft choice who anchored the Ducks’ blocking schemes? Will the secondary, minus two of its primary stars in safety Patrick Chung and cornerback Jarius Byrd, be able to survive a tough early schedule?
Make or break game: at Boise State, Sept. 3. Kelly should take up the Ducks’ September schedule with former coach- Mike Bellotti, now Oregon’s athletic director. After opening on the “Smurf Turf” versus Boise State, the Ducks then host Purdue, Utah and California in the season’s first month.
9. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

Strengths: Sure, a bevy of stars are gone, but sophomore signal-caller Terrelle Pryor is back to terrorize opposing Big Ten defenses with his feet and his arm. Speaking of terrors, the defensive line features two all-league caliber players in Cameron Heyward and Lawrence Wilson.
Nagging questions: Can Pryor improve his passing aim? And will Ohio State’s rebuilt linebacking and receiving corps be ready when USC visits the Horseshoe?
Make or break game: vs. USC, Sept. 12. Two of college football’s most storied programs will lock horns early in the 2009 season. The winner will stamp itself as a national title contender.
10. OLE MISS REBELS

Strengths: Surprised? Don’t be. Mississippi will be the chic accessory in everybody’s top 10—and with good reason. In Houston Nutt’s first season at the helm, the Rebels beat Florida and LSU during the regular season and Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Jevan Snead doesn’t get a fraction of the ink that Tebow does, but he’s a big-time quarterback. Leading rusher Dexter McCluster returns, as does sackmaster Greg Hardy.
Nagging questions: The anchors of both lines—offensive tackle Michael Oher and nose tackle Peria Jerry—were literally two big reasons that Rebels were able to defeat some of college football’s big boys last year. They’re both cashing NFL checks now and will be sorely missed.
Make or break game: vs. Alabama,Oct. 10. The Rebels will find out if they’re for real or masquerading as a top 10 team.
11. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

Strengths: The three-headed monster of quarterback Zac Robinson (3,064 yards, 25 touchdowns), wideout Dez Bryant (87 receptions, 1,480 yards, 19 scores) and tailback Kendall Hunter (119.6 yards rushing per game) ensures that scoring points won’t be a problem for the Cowboys. Bryant will be on most Heisman short lists entering the season.
Nagging questions: Head coach Mike Gundy’s Maalox moments are about replacing three-fourths of his secondary, a unit that struggled against the elite teams.
Make or break game: vs. Georgia, Sept. 5. Many folks believe that Oklahoma State will be this year’s Missouri, a team that can score points but will find itself in its fair share of shootouts because of a leaky stop unit. New defensive cordinator Bill Young will learn a lot about his charges right out of the gate when Georgia visits Stillwater.
12. BOISE STATE BRONCOS

Strengths: Quarterback Kellen Moore (3,486 yards, 25 touchdowns) is the nation’s best quarterback that you’ve never heard of. He’ll headline a potent offense, along with tailback Jeremy Avery (614 yards). The defense has a lock-down corner in first-team All-WAC player Kyle Wilson, a pass-rushing demon in Ryan Winterswyk and a hard-hitting safety in Jeron Johnson (98 tackles).
Nagging questions: Will wideout Titus Young be able to stay out of the coaching staff’s doghouse? Young was suspended for 10 games last season. He’ll give Moore a much-needed home-run threat.
Make or break game: vs. Oregon, Sept. 3. The ESPN cameras will be in Idaho for this September matchup.
13. LSU TIGERS

Strengths: Sophomore quarterback Jordan Jefferson looked like a worldbeater in the Tigers’ 38-3 rout of Georgia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. If he’s a starin- the-making and former Tennesee defensive coordinator John Chavis can solidify LSU’s defense, then the 2007 national champs could ascend back into the top 10.
Nagging questions: Can Chavis get enough productivity from a defensive line that includes Rahim Alem, Pep Levingston and oft-injured Charles Alexander, who received a sixth year of eligibility, to pressure the steady stream of quality quarterbacks on the Tigers’ schedule?
Make or break game: at Washington, Sept. 5. Head coach Les Miles will get an early indication of how well his team will play on the road when it heads to the Pacific Northwest to open the season. The Tigers have their share of tough road trips ahead with games at Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi on the docket.
14. GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS

Strengths: The Yellow Jackets return all 11 starters on offense, so they should be able to run Paul Johnson’s triple-option offensive attack with more aplomb in 2009. Tailback Jonathan Dwyer (1,395 yards, 12 scores) is one of the best runners in the country.
Nagging questions: Rebuilding the defensive line is at the top of Tech’s to-do list. Tackles Darryl Richard and Vance Walker will be hard to replace. Also, will signal-caller Josh Nesbitt (43.9 completion percentage) improve his throwing aim enough to keep foes from putting everyone in the box against the Jackets?
Make or break game: at Miami (Fla.), Sept. 17. While most of the top ACC opponents (Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest) will travel to Atlanta to battle against Georgia Tech, this trip and one to Tallahassee on Oct. 10 could tell the tale for Johnson’s squad.
15. EAST CAROLINA PIRATES

Strengths: Head coach Skip Holtz welcomes back 16 starters—eight on offense and eight on defense. He has a budding star under center in quarterback Patrick Pinkney. If Kentucky transfer Brandon Jackson can be an every-down back, the Pirates will score points. East Carolina’s defense features a proven playmaker at each tier: tackle Linval Joseph, linebacker Nick Johnson and safety Van Eskridge.
Nagging questions: Can a Conference USA team be a BCS buster for the first time? To do so, East Carolina must negotiate two rugged road trips—West Virginia (Sept. 12) and Virginia Tech (Nov. 5).
Make or break game: at Virginia Tech, Nov. 5. In order to be a fly in the BCS ointment, the Pirateswill need to upend the Hokies in Blacksburg,which is no small task.
16. GEORGIA BULLDOGS

Strengths: Mark Richt is a proven offensive whiz, but even his skills will be put to the test as quarterback Matthew Stafford and tailback Knowshon Moreno are both now NFL millionaires. Richt is confident that senior Joe Cox will be a competent signal-caller. The defense is littered with talent—most notably linbacker Rennie Curran, tackle Geno Atkins, safety Reshad Jones and corner Prince Miller.
Nagging questions: Replacing Moreno, now a Denver Bronco, won’t be a oneman job. Richt hopes that sophomores Caleb King and Richard Samuel—along with Carlton Thomas and Dontavius Jackson— can do the trick.
Make or break game: at Oklahoma State, Sept. 5. As if test-your-manhood tussles with SEC foes weren’t enough, Georgia travels to Stillwater to open the season against a Cowboy team that scores.
17. IOWA HAWKEYES

Strengths: Kirk Ferentz is constantly the subject of NFL rumors, because he is so adept at building offensive lines and football is won in the trenches. Quarterback Rick Stanzi is back, with a much-improved throwing motion. The back seven of Iowa’s defense will be strong as all three starting linebackers and three/fourths of the secondary return.
Nagging questions: Ferentz has allleague caliber answers at the two tackle spots in Bryan Bulaga and Kyle Calloway, but needs to find a new center and two new guards. Also, can gifted tailback Jewel Hampton fill the cleats of all-everything tailback Shonn Greene, now with the Jets?
Make or break game: at Penn State, Sept. 26. After in-state tests versus Northern Iowa and Iowa State, followed by a visit from Arizona, the Hawkeyes’ first venture out of the state will be a real doozy as they visit Happy Valley.
18. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS

Strengths: True to his last name, Jahvid Best, who rushed for 1,580 yards and 15 scores, is the best runner in the Pac-10. He’s not a household name yet, but the people that matter most (NFL scouts) know his name. The defense returns seven starters, including end Cameron Jordan and cornerback Syd’Quan Thompson.
Nagging questions: Will quarterback Kevin Riley take this team by the throat? He has much more game experience than sophomore Brock Mansion or redshirt freshman Beau Sweeney, but head coach Jeff Tedford won’t pick a winner in the quarterback derby until August.
Make or break game: at Oregon, Sept. 26. The Bears host USC one week later.

19. BYU COUGARS

Strengths: BYU’s offense, led by senior quarterback Max Hall and junior tailback Harvey Unga, should be high-octane, if the Cougars’ offensive line holds up and Unga, who was bothered by various bumps and bruises, can stay healthy.
Nagging questions:Will the offensive line (four new starters) be adequate enough to give Hall time to throw?Will wideout McKay Jacobson regain his pre-mission form, easing the loss of Austin Collie.
Make or break game: atOklahoma, Sept. 5. The Cougars have a whopper of a season opener, taking on the reigningHeisman Trophywinner, SamBradford, and the Sooners’ absolutely electric offense.

20. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

Strengths: Mark Dantonio is quite a coach and he has the makings of a stingy defense in East Lansing. Lineman Trevor Anderson and linebacker Greg Jones are both disruptive forces who will play on Sundays, while the secondary will be the strongest of Dantonio’s tenure.
Nagging questions: Can either Kirk Cousins or Keith Nichol be the answer under center? The winner of the quarterback competition doesn’t have to do everything himself as both starting wideouts, three starting linemen and the starting tight end are all back.
Make or break game: at Notre Dame, Sept. 19. The Spartans’ new signalcaller will be on a big stage in this nationally televised affair in South Bend.

21. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

Strengths: A seasoned offensive line, anchored by All-America-caliber guard Rodney Hudson, should give quarterback Christian Ponder (2,006 yards, 14 touchdowns, 13 interceptions) plenty of time to throw and tailback Jermaine Thomas sufficient holes to run through.
Nagging questions: With only five returning starters, the Seminoles’ defense has some serious questions.
Make or break game: vs. Miami (Fla.), Sept. 7. These two bitter in-state rivals always seem to play close games. The winner of this ACC opener between one-time college football superpowers will stamp itself as a top 25 team.

22. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

Strengths: Second-year Huskers head coach Bo Pelini knows how to build defenses. And with seven returning starters, including tackle Ndamukong Suh and safety Larry Asante, he’ll have a stout unit. The schedule, with Texas not on the slate and with Oklahoma and Texas Tech coming to Lincoln, is favorable.
Nagging questions: Signal-callers Zac Lee and Patrick Witt are locked in a battle to replace last year’s starter, Joe Ganz. Lee took a big step toward winning the job in spring ball, but he still has work to do to nail down the No. 1 spot on the depth chart.
Make or break game: at Virginia Tech, Sept. 19. If Nebraska can somehow upset the Hokies, then a 4-0 non-conference record will be assured.

23. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH

Strengths: Nine starters are back on offense for Charlie Weis, including quarterback Jimmy Clausen and two good playmakers in receivers Golden Tate (1,080 yards, 10 scores) and Michael Floyd (719, 7). Clausen (25 touchdowns, 17 interceptions), who has had his share of growing pains in South Bend, should be well-protected as four offensive line starters return. Look for junior Armando Allen to emerge as a star running back.
Nagging questions: Does Notre Dame have the foot speed, particularly on defense, to deal with the seven 2008 bowl teams on its schedule?
Make or break game: at Michigan, Sept. 12. The Wolverines figure to be better in Year 2 under Rich Rodriguez. But if Notre Dame, which opens at home on Sept. 5 versus Nevada, wants to be a player on the national stage, then it needs to win at the Big House to get out of the gate with a 2-0 mark.

24. CINCINNATI BEARCATS

Strengths: After leading the Bearcats to the Big East title and a BCS berth in the Orange Bowl, quarterback Tony Pike still isn’t satisfied. He’s added 10 pounds of muscle to his frame and, with seven other returning offensive starters back, seems poised to build on last year’s success (2,407 yards passing, 19 touchdowns).
Nagging questions: With only one returning defensive starter (safety Aaron Webster) from last year’s 11-3 team, first-year coordinator Bob Diaco raided the offensive two deep to find the athletes necessary to run his 3-4 scheme.
Make or break game: at Rutgers, Sept. 7. The Bearcats new-look defense will be road-tested right away.

25. UTAH UTES

Strengths: The Utes, of course, were the nation’s only unbeaten team last year at 13-0. The strength of this year’s team will be the defense, a unit that brings back seven starters—most notably, end Kao Misi and linebacker Stevenson Sylvester.
Nagging questions: Quarterback Brian Johnson is gone and it’s a three-man race to replace him with juniors Corbin Louks and Terrance Cain battling newcomer JordanWynn to man the controls of the offense.With only four returning offensive starters back, the wheels of proven tailback Matt Asiaia (707 yards rushing, 12 scores) will need to carry the offense early on.
Make or break game: at Oregon, Sept. 19. This game against the Ducks will be a good barometer for a team that will need to win on the road at TCU and BYU in order to defend its Mountain West crown.

[SoonerBS]

TGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW...PRESEASON TOP 25!

by Bruce Marshall, Goldsheet.com Editor



1-FLORIDA...Tim Tebow's decision to return for his senior season was a double dose of good news for Urban Meyer. First, it delays Meyer's need to replace Tebow in the Gator lineup for another year. More importantly, however, it makes Florida the early favorite to claim its third BCS crown in four years. The Gators could probably make a run at the crown even without Tebow, as one of the nation's best defenses returns all 11 of its starters as well as its key backups. And the attack is more than just Tebow, with plenty of potent complementary weapons led by explosive RB Chris Rainey. Add to that another crop of hungry blue-chippers, who usually get their chance to show their stuff under Meyer. The Gators even catch a break in the SEC, where their Eastern half doesn't appear as menacing as in recent years. Anything less than another appearance in the title game would be a disappointment.

2-TEXAS...They're still steamed in Austin about being bypassed for the Big XII and BCS title games by an Oklahoma bunch the Horns beat fair and square in Dallas last October. Texas Tech, however, beat Texas fair and square, too, to set off the chain of events last season, but that's a subject for another day. The bigger news for Horn backers is the fact that Mack Brown has finally figured out the way to beat Bob Stoops, with UT holding a decided edge in recent Red River Rivalry battles. Although a handful of impact performers have departed, QB Colt McCoy and plenty of playmakers are still in the fold, so we like Texas' chances vs. OU again. And beyond that, the rest of the schedule is tailor-made for a run to the BCS championship game.

3-SOUTHERN CAL...We understand (sort of) why Pete Carroll made such a fuss over Mark Sanchez' decision to leave a year early for the NFL, because it threw open the competition at QB a year earlier than planned and suddenly made a question mark of the most important position on the field for another possible Trojan national contender. And this was a season Carroll wanted the "O" to be humming from the outset as he reloads a defense that might miss its many starters who graduated to the NFL. But don't feel sorry for Carroll, who as usual has plenty of talent on hand just itching to make a contribution. The bigger question is if the Trojans can avoid the Pac-10 banana peels that have cost them a shot at the last three BCS title games.

4-OKLAHOMA...All eyes are already on that mid-October showdown vs. you-know-who at the Cotton Bowl, which became even more compelling once Heisman winner Sam Bradford stunned the college football world by effectively announcing that he would rather play for the Sooners than the Detroit Lions this fall. Bradford or not, we don't expect the attack to put up another 60 ppg with four OL starters gone, although the "D" should be pretty good with nine starters back in the fold. Still, success in Norman these days is measured by the big games on the schedule, and it's worth noting that HC Bob Stoops' record vs. Texas and in bowls has waned in recent years.

5-VIRGINIA TECH...Looking for a potential BCS title game sleeper? Try Frank Beamer's Hokies, who won the ACC (and dumped Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl) in a supposedly rebuilding year in '08, and who take that momentum and 17 returning starters into the fall. Expect another typically nasty and opportunistic Bud Foster defense, as well as Beamer's trademark big-play special teams, to wreak havoc as usual. But the upgrade in '09 figures to come on offense, where QB Tyrod Taylor has reportedly eliminated the "hitch" in his throwing motion, and where RS frosh Ryan Williams has Blacksburg folk excited about a potential dynamite 1-2 RB combo with returnee Darren Evans. We'll know early if VT is a serious title game threat, with Alabama on deck in the opener at Atlanta and Nebraska visiting Lane Stadium a few weeks later.

6-OLE MISS...After previous coach Ed Orgeron's improved recruiting efforts set up the pins, Houston Nutt has knocked them down in Dick Weber-like fashion since taking over the Rebel reins a year ago. Indeed, there hasn't been this much excitement in Oxford since the last days of Johnny Vaught's long-ago regime that featured Archie Manning at QB, as a victory over Florida and a 6-game win streak to conclude '08 (that included romping past Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl) have convinced the Ole Miss faithful that the sky's the limit in '09. SEC scouts say ex-Texas transfer Jevan Snead had a better command of the "O" in spring, and plenty of complementary weapons (including the versatile Dexter McCluster) return, not to mention 8 starters from a disruptive stop unit. And don't forget that the Rebs get to host Alabama in this year's showdown October 10.

7-BOISE STATE...The Broncos are familiar with the BCS buster role (one they filled in 2006), and with three unbeaten regular seasons in the past five years, precedent has been set for Boise to make another run at the big-bowl lineup. HC Chris Petersen should have another loaded offense, featuring mature-beyond-his-years soph QB Kellen Moore and plenty of big-play weapons in the Bronco arsenal, but don't forget about an underrated "D" that ranked among the nation's stat leaders a year ago. Boise figures to be a considerable favorite in all of its WAC games, so its BCS candidacy will likely hinge on non-conference dates on the blue carpet vs. Oregon (in the opener) and at dangerous Tulsa a few weeks later.

8-ALABAMA...The timetable for the "Nick-tator" to restore Bama's gridiron glory was moved up a year after last season's Tide came within 15 minutes of qualifying for the national title game. Another run at the BCS would come as no surprise despite the fact Saban has to fill a few important gaps on the "O" (including savvy QB John Parker Wilson and star OT Andre Smith). SEC sources report Wilson's longtime caddy Greg McElroy ought to be able to move the chains and clock as did Wilson while being capable enough to get the ball into the hands of homerun threats such as soph WR Julio Jones, who's expected to be used in more roles this fall. Meanwhile, the stop unit returns almost everyone from what was the third-best scoring "D" in the land last year. But the key tests that will go a long way in determining Bama's BCS fate are both away from Tuscaloosa (the opener at Atlanta vs. Virginia Tech and an Oct. 10 date at Ole Miss).

9-PENN STATE...It's no coincidence that since Joe Pa began accepting various shady characters in Happy Valley (check the local police blotter if you don't believe us) and downgraded his non-conference schedule like Bill Snyder used to at Kansas State (Akron, Syracuse, Temple, and Eastern Illinois all visiting Beaver Stadium this fall), the Nittany Lions have resurfaced as a national force. Perhaps Penn State gets exposed again in the postseason as it did last January in the Rose Bowl. But until then, the return of QB Daryll Clark and another watered-down Big Ten slate will camouflage some new faces on "O" and the rebuilt nucleus of last year's gritty defense. Expected top conference challengers Iowa and Ohio State also must visit Happy Valley.

10-LSU...Was that a sneak preview of '09 that we saw in the Chick-fil-A Bowl last New Year's Eve, when James Carville's favorite team ran roughshod over Georgia Tech? After an unsteady 2008, the Bayou Bengal QB situation appears to have been elevated by the emergence of Jordan Jefferson, who hinted at becoming a real playmaker down the stretch as a true frosh and claimed the starting job as his own in spring. Expect lots of fireworks this fall with top RB Charles Scott & top WR Brandon LaFell back in the fold. If Les Miles can plug the gaps on a rebuilt DL (and there are no shortage of capable candidates ready to step in), the "D" could be special while returning almost all of its playmakers in the back seven. Unfortunately, LSU's toughest expected challenges (Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss) all take place away from Baton Rouge this fall.

11-CAL...Although HC Jeff Tedford's well-established rep as a QB guru has taken a bit of a hit the past few seasons, Pac-10 sources say this fall's Cal bunch has its best chance to make noise in the national rankings since the 2004 team narrowly missed out on the BCS. For once in Berkeley, it's a nasty defense with one of the country's most-decorated secondaries (all starters return) that is getting most of the preseason attention, but the potential is also there for the "O" to erupt if one of the QBs (holdover Kevin Riley likely to get the first call) heeds Tedford's sage advice and properly utilizes the nation's leading returning rusher, electric Jahvid Best, and a slew of Plaxico Burress-sized WRs. A three-game stretch just before midseason vs. Minnesota, Oregon, and USC will determine if the Golden Bears are a true BCS contender or merely bound for another minor bowl.

12-OHIO STATE...Since BCS appearances have become almost de rigueur (four straight years) in Columbus, it would be foolish to disregard the Buckeyes as a threat to get back despite some of the significant holes HC Jim Tressel has to fill. But remember that Tressel's OSU has nonetheless thrived in more-severe rebuild modes lately, and this fall brings high hopes that ballyhooed soph QB Terrelle Pryor, who hinted at becoming a terror last fall, will emerge as a true playmaking force after reportedly upgrading his passing skills in the offseason. If a rebuilt defensive front can deal with Navy's option in the opener, and if the Buckeyes somehow avenge last year's embarrassment vs. USC on September 12 at the Big Horseshoe, there's a good chance OSU will carry an unbeaten record into its November 7 showdown at Penn State.

13-GEORGIA TECH...Who said Paul Johnson's spread option wouldn't translate from Navy to Georgia Tech? Thanks to Johnson's underrated game management skills, the Jackets were mostly able to keep opponents off balance and win 10 games by running a similar version of Johnson's Navy's option last fall. Tech now figures to really buzz in an attack with all 11 starters (including QB Josh Nesbitt & RB Jonathan Dwyer) back and a year more comfortable with the nuances of the offense. Meanwhile, the Tech "D" might own the ACC's best back seven, although newcomers are being counted upon in a restructured DL that Johnson hopes will have settled in by the time the schedule gets rough in October (4 of 5 road games, sandwiched around an Atlanta visit from ACC favorite Virginia Tech).

14-OKLAHOMA STATE...Looking for a BCS sleeper? Try OSU, which returns enough firepower (including QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter, & WR Dez Bryant) to outscore Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, or anyone else on the Cowboy schedule. Of course, that was the same scenario as a year ago when the "D" wasn't up the challenge, and to that end HC Mike Gundy has imported d.c. Bill Young from Miami to shore up a platoon that allowed more than 400 yards and nearly 30 points pg in '08. Relocating a non-existent pass rush will certainly be one of Young's first objectives. No matter, OSU will be in every game with a dynamic strike force that was not only explosive but also well-balanced (over 3000 yards both running and passing!) last fall.

15-TCU...HC Gary Patterson knows the formula for success in Fort Worth, recording at least 11 wins in three of the past four campaigns. And more than a few Mountain West observers believe that TCU, not undefeated Utah, was really the league's best team last season. Although some graduation losses mean that it might be hard to replicate the disruptiveness of the nation's top-rated "D" from '08, expect another speed-based platoon to effectively implement shrewd d.c. Dick Bumpas' pet 4-2-5. Meanwhile, a school record-breaking offense returns jr. QB Andy Dalton and enough playmakers to light up the scoreboard again. The Frogs, who get Utah at Fort Worth in November, could even be peripheral BCS contenders if they survive a couple of rare early trips to ACC land (Virginia & Clemson).

16-OREGON...Don't expect too much disruption in Eugene after HC Mike Bellotti's surprising winter switch to the Oregon A.D. chair, and the earlier-than-expected promotion of o.c. Chip Kelly (who had been designated the coach-in-waiting) to Bellotti's old job. The staff and terminology remain much the same from last year's 10-3 squad that outscored Oklahoma State in the Holiday Bowl. Although significant rebuilding is in store for both lines, key playmakers return, including Oregon's answer to Batman & Robin with versatile QB Jeremiah Masoli & RB LeGarrette Blount back for an encore. We'll know if the Ducks are ready to make a serious challenge to USC in the Pac-10 by the end of September, when UO will have already faced potential BCS busters Boise State & Utah, as well as expected conference contender Cal.

17-NORTH CAROLINA...It hasn't taken Butch Davis long to make Carolina relevant again in the ACC, with the Tar Heels back in the bowl mix a year ago and just a handful of plays away from a special season in '08 when four of five losses were suffered by just nine points total. There's certainly more depth these days in Chapel Hill after Davis' upgraded recruiting efforts, and nine starters return from a fast, hungry, stop unit that might own the best DL in the region. The schedule is manageable, but how quickly the rebuilt receiving corps gains rapport with QB T.J. Yates will likely determine if the Heels make a serious run at ACC honors and perhaps an elusive BCS berth.

18-GEORGIA...Now flying a bit under the radar following a somewhat-disappointing '08 campaign and the early departures of offensive linchpins QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno, as well as CB Asher Allen, HC Mark Richt might be in a better position to author a surprise this fall, especially with an OL that developed some maturity and depth when injury-battered last season, plus the return of star OT Trinton Sturdivant. A replacement for Stafford had yet to surface in spring (a 3-headed race will continue when camp reconvenes in August), but explosive soph WR A.J. Green has already emerged as one of the SEC's top playmakers. A tougher-than-usual September slate (Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Arkansas & South Carolina) will give us an early clue if this is a rebuilding or reloading year in Athens.

19-NORTH CAROLINA STATE...What was the best team in the ACC at the end of last season? You'd be surprised how many conference observers thought it was NC State, which roared down the stretch once then-frosh Russell Wilson established himself at QB. Keeping Wilson (who was KO'd in the bowl loss vs. Rutgers) healthy is a primary concern for HC Tom O'Brien, and a new featured RB must emerge to replace the productive Andre Brown (will oft-injured Toney Baker fill the role?). But most of the playmakers return from a ball-hawking "D" that features LB Nate Irving, and the schedule (five of first six at Raleigh) is very favorable, especially if the Wolfpack can avenge last year's opening-night shutout loss vs. South Carolina.

20-IOWA...Even with productive RB Shonn Greene having taken his act to the NFL a year early, and some re-tooling on tap for both lines, the Hawkeyes still might have the best chance of disrupting the recent Penn State-Ohio State axis of power in the Big Ten. QB Ricky Stanzi returns after maturing into an effective on-field leader last fall, and HC Kirk Ferentz addressed the departures of Greene and star DTs Mitch King & Matt Kroul in spring, as a rotation of capable replacements figure to limit any drop-off. Trips to Columbus and Happy Valley (where the revenge-minded Nittany Lions will await) will be tricky, but the Hawkeyes should have a realistic shot at another January bowl.

21-KANSAS...The power in the Big XII will again be in the South this fall. But with Missouri dealing with heavy graduation losses, Nebraska looking for a new QB, and Colorado still seeking to gain some traction under Dan Hawkins, there's room for Kansas to emerge as the team to beat in the North and win its first title of any kind since Pepper Rodgers' 1968 Orange Bowl squad featuring QB Bobby Douglass. The return of most of the key playmakers (including QB Todd Reesing) from another potent Jayhawk "O" has Lawrence excited, although HC Mark Mangino will be looking to upgrade a "D" that lacked much push up front. The "crossover" conference slate is daunting (Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech, but no Oklahoma State), although the non-league schedule is manageable...and the North very, very winnable.

22-FLORIDA STATE...Although Bobby Bowden's quest to finish his career with more victories than Joe Paterno might suffer a mortal blow if FSU is forced to forfeit 14 wins from 2006-07 due to academic fraud (stay tuned for further developments), the Noles might be closer to national relevance than they've been in a few years after last year's 9-4 mark and romp past Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl. For the first time in years, there's no debate at QB after Christian Ponder showed flashes of brilliance as a soph last fall, although o.c. Jimbo Fisher (also the HC-in-waiting) must decide upon complementary weapons to accompany Ponder and a vet OL. As long as Mickey Andrews' fleet-footed "D" comes to play, FSU can expect to be in every game this fall.

23-SOUTHERN MISS...C-USA's best chance for a breakthrough team this fall? Try Southern Miss, which quickly adapted to new HC Larry Fedora's spread by setting school records for total offense, passing yards, and first downs in '08. The momentum from five straight wins to close '08 should continue, with most of the main characters from that late-season uptick still in the fold (including playmaking QB Austin Davis, soph WR DeAndre Brown, who led all frosh receivers with 1117 yards LY, plus three-time 1000-yard rusher Damion Fletcher, who missed spring work to deal with legal issues but is expected to be on hand in fall), as well as the bulk of a quick-footed "D" that allowed only 35 points in the last four regular-season games, wins that the Golden Eagles needed to go bowling.

24-OREGON STATE...Looking for a surprise stat? How about Oregon State's three straight finishes in the nation's top 20. And the Beavers, who have relished flying under the radar since HC Mike Riley rejoined the program in 2003, are in their preferred role again, mostly dismissed as a serious Pac-10 contender due to massive reloading on defense. But underestimate giant-killer OSU (with upset wins over USC in two of the past three years) at your own peril, as Riley and shrewd d.c. Mark Banker have quickly rebuilt depleted stop units in the past. Remember, the Beavers also have a pair of established sr. QBs in gutsy Lyle Moevao & lefty Sean Canfield, plus perhaps the Pac-10's best offensive weapon in 5-7 soph RB Quizz Rodgers. Note, too, that Riley's OSU has won its last five bowl games.

25-KENTUCKY...Rich Brooks has been looking for a playmaker in Lexington and might have found one in versatile soph Randall Cobb, who sparked the Wildcat "O" on occasion at QB last fall, but appears ready to make a bigger impact in '09 at WR or perhaps in direct-snap situations. Cobb's presence might also make it a bit easier for mechanical QB Mike Hartline to become involved in more big plays this fall. But it's on defense where the Wildcats ought to excel, with several honors candidates still in the fold (including potential NFL draftees LB Micah Johnson & CB Trevard Lindley) despite star DE Jeremy Jarmon being declared ineligible in spring. A forgiving non-conference slate makes a fourth straight bowl trip very likely.

[nevadaside]

Thanks, NS!

I'm still in the process of putting the pieces together on these teams, so take this with a grain a salt for now, but let me assess this list you put up a bit and you're welcome to disagree:

OLE MISS -- Without a doubt, Ole Miss is going to be good if they don't succumb to the pressure of being on EVERYBODY'S radar. It is that element that I am a bit wary of though. Last season they were not in the national spotlight in the preseason, but this year they are. The linesmakers will definitely give them their respect this year, so I'm not expecting as many "value" bets as what we got last season with this team. My thoughts initially is to play on them everytime they are underdogs -- which will not be often.

MIAMI -- I think you could be right on this one. I certainly think that Shannon needs for this to be the year as his honeymoon is about to run out. The key to Miami's success this season will be how fast the players respond to the new systems set up by a new OC and a new DC. There has been a lot of applause by fans, Alumni and national media on Shannon's offseason hires, but sometimes it takes a year or two for players to adjust to new coordinators and their schemes. Miami can't afford another year or two. They certainly have good personnel and experience this year though, so let's listen close to how things go in the Fall camp.

UNC -- This team is a wait and see team with me. They bring back good experience on the defensive side of the ball, but offensively they have some questions on the offensive line. Anyone that follows my handicapping knows that I put a lot of weight on the guys in the trenches. After a cushy opener with Citadel, UNC has a pretty tough 3 game schedule against UCONN, East Carolina and Georgia Tech. The game on the road against UCONN should tell us a lot about this team.

NCST -- I like this team. Last season seemed like a surprise until you consider the past success of their coach with teams he has had. He's just a damn good coach. NCST brings back a lot of experience and loses very little. I think there is a good chance they will beat South Carolina in their opener. I agree with you here, they could be a good ATS team this year despite their success from last season.

MINN -- I think this team is way too overhyped and valued this year. Yes, they bring back almost all their talent and experience from last season, but be careful -- their wins came against some very easy competition, but they lost to the good competition. What does that tell us? Their record last year was likely orchestrated by scheduling. BUT, look at their schedul this year, they are getting ready to take a major step up! I could always be wrong, but I think it's likely they will be overvalued and I plan to fade them every opportunity I get until they prove me wrong.

IOWA -- Here's a team I see similar to Ole Miss this season. They surprise nobody in being a better team and so their lines may be overvalued. I also have a big question on who will replace their star of last season -- Shonn Greene. Their running game last season was the key to their success and it will need to be that again.

ARK -- Arkansas finished last year with a better record than I thought they would. A lot of that has to do with Petrino's coaching. This season, they come back with a lot more experience, a year of running Petrino's system under their belt, and a better QB (if he's healthy) in Ryan Mallet. I agree, there's some money to be made on this team as they should do nothing but improve this year.

MARYLAND -- NS, I'm going to disagree with you here on Maryland. I think Maryland is a good fade this team this season. One of the best bets I'm looking at in the first week is Cal over Maryland. This exerpt from an article I found really sums up my feelings as well on this team: "On the other hand, however, half of last year’s starters have graduated, more than any other ACC school, and both lines were decimated in the process. QB Chris Turner is still trying to become more than just a journeyman, and the defense is a work-in-progress that’s going to struggle against the better offenses. In other words, go ahead and try to evaluate the Terps at your own peril." I do not like betting "on" teams that are projected to struggle with both their offensive and defensive lines. I don't care how good their skill positions are suppose to be.

NEVADA -- Yes, without a doubt, Nevada should be one of the most productive offenses in the nation this season if everyone remains healthy. The only two things I don't like right now is the fact that they are getting so much public attention in preseason AND the fact that their defense could be as bad as it was last season. We'll just have to pick and choose our spots with this team.

Definitely agree with your analysis on these Sooner,
I didn't really elaborate on my reasons too much, more of just some quick general thoughts.

Yeah, MISS is definitely "no secret" anymore.....just looking for any spots w/a generous line if there are any this year.

Hadn't looked into what took place w/MARY yet after last season but you answered that now. CAL should be looking for some serious redemption for sure after getting rolled across the country in a bad bad spot for them last year........I hit MARY up hosting CAL on that one & will now look to CAL as well on this upcoming opening week for another big one. Thanks for the intel on this one.......

Too keep it short, basically agree w/what you're saying here on the rest.....although I will say..........

my FAV is ARK for sure at this point..........plenty of speed there, just give me some pts & it's on.....

& you know there is serious pressure to get that MIA program back to the top........so I'm looking for some serious improvement this year.

Damn, your just loading this thread up with so much ammo......can't wait to start firing away & will be looking really forward to your early plays........cause we'll be going "cha ching", "cha ching".....lol.

[SoonerBS]

Big Ten Breakdown

June 14, 2009
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com


As we reported last year, the BIG 10 CONFERENCE has been an Ohio State love fest the last four seasons where the Buckeyes have gone 29-3 in conference play while capturing four straight titles.

That puts Ohio State in elite company, tying Michigan with four consecutive crowns. Better yet, OSU is the only team in its 112-year history to have stood alone atop the BIG 10 CONFERENCE four straight years.

A total of 26 all-BIG 10 players from last season return in 2009. In addition 10 of the 11 teams welcome back at least half of their starters, with Minnesota (18) and Indiana (17) leading the way. In addition, the Top 6 QB’s in efficiency are back in 2009.

The BIG 10 will battle 20 non-conference bowl teams this campaign, seven more than last season….

ILLINOIS – *8 / 6
Team Theme – ZOOK, LINE AND STINKER
College football’s best rags-to-riches team in 2007 was back on the streets panhandling last year when prosperity turned the Illini from winners back to losers. Don’t feel too bad for Ron Zook’s squad, though. They’ll erase the stench of that stinker season before you know it. “Ron works at one-speed – 100 miles an hour – and he goes at that speed all the time. From the time he wakes up until he goes to sleep, if he goes to sleep, he is going to be doing anything he can to make his players and football team better,” says Mike Gottfried, ESPN analyst. Fortunately for Zook, his top two producers are back in 2008. SR QB Juice Williams, who led the Big Ten in passing and total offense last season, and Big Ten 1st-team WR Arrelious Benn pave the way. By the way, last year’s offense and defense performed better than 2007’s Rose Bowl team. Go figure.
PLAY ON: vs. Minnesota (11/7)

INDIANA – *8 / 9
Team Theme – KELLEN ME SOFTLY
It was a grand master plan. Move three-year starting quarterback Kellen Lewis to wide receiver and have him work in tandem with JR QB Ben Chappell. Last spring, Chappell had won the job because of a team suspension handed to Lewis. After winning back the starting job last August, Lewis responded with a dazzling performance in season-opening victory over Western Kentucky that earned a fifth conference player of the week award. Then came a series of nagging injuries and another suspension that slowed Lewis and he spent most of the remainder of the 2008 season either on the sideline or rotating between quarterback, receiver and running back. Head coach Bill Mallory gave Lewis a second chance. Unfortunately, he won’t get a third. Lewis was booted from the team this spring. Nonetheless, eight other players will be playing new positions this year, including seven from offense to defense. Talk about a team in transition!
PASS

IOWA – *6 / 8
Team Theme – FIELD OF DREAMS
On the whole, there is a lot to like about the Hawkeyes this season. Sure, they lost RB Shonn Greene (1850 yards, second best in the nation) and two first team all-Big Ten offensive linemen to the NFL draft, but they are still well-fortified. Five second team all-Big Ten performers, two of whom are offensive linemen, join QB Ricky Stanzi, an all-Big Ten third teamer. Filling Greene’s shoes is SO RB Jewel Hampton, who played as a true freshman in 2008. He rushed for 463 yards and scored seven touchdowns, the most TD’s ever by an Iowa true freshman. Seven home games lace the schedule and home is where the wins have been. Iowa is 42-9 at Kinnick Stadium the last eight years. With Iowa’s offense and defense each improved by more than 50 YPG last season, the Hawkeyes dream of being a player in the Big Ten chase in 2009 may be real.
PLAY ON: vs. Michigan State (10/24)

MICHIGAN – *11 / 5
Team Theme – BOTTOMS UP
You know you've had a bad year when your team suffered its first nine-loss season in its 129-year history, had a 33-year bowl streak snapped and lost five games SU as a favorite. To put things into perspective for Wolverine head coach Rich Rodriguez, the nine losses Michigan endured last year equal those Bo Schembechler suffered in his first seven seasons combined with the Wolves. It’s a toss-up who had a rougher year in the state of Michigan, the Wolverines football team or the automakers. In his second year in Ann Arbor, with a cast of 16 starters back from last year’s squad (including 11 on offense), Rodriguez only hopes for the kind of success he had in his second year at West Virginia, when he led the Mountaineers to a 9-4 season after going 3-8 in his debut. It can’t get any worse.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (11/21)

MICHIGAN STATE – 7 / 8
Team Theme – DRUNK WITH SUCCESS
Here’s to a masterful job by Mark Dantonio is his two years with the Spartans. After inheriting a team that had suffered through three straight losing seasons, Dantonio has lifted MSU to new heights in short order, taking them to back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1997. Given that success and Michigan's dismal 2008 season, the Spartans will be favored to beat state-rival Michigan in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1967. That’s pretty much a no-no in our books. Losing three-year starters QB Brian Hoyer and RB Javon Ringer to the NFL draft doesn’t help. The bottom line is we’re not fond of teams that improved their win total by two games despite a decline on both sides of the ball. It’s often a sign of too much bubbly, too soon. Be careful here.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Michigan (10/3)

MINNESOTA – *10 / 8
Team Theme – BACK AND DECKER
After an atrocious 1-11 mark in 2007, the Gophers tied for the second best turnaround in the nation in 2008 when they finished 7-6 on the season. The biggest strides were made on the defensive side of the ball where Minnesota improved a whopping 138 YPG, marking the 3rd best improvement in the land. In fact, the 22 sacks registered by the defense last year tied Nebraska for top honors in the country. Better news is 18 starters are back in 2009, including QB Adam Weber and SR WR Eric Decker, whose 84 receptions was best in the Big 10 in 2008. Here’s hoping they enjoy their new digs at the TCF Bank Stadium in 2009. That’s where their wins will need to be manufactured, with nine opponents who had winning records last season dotting this year’s itinerary.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Michigan State (10/31)

NORTHWESTERN – 5 / 8
Team Theme – KAFKA PROJECT
We called the Wildcats a “sleeper team” last season and, like a heavy dose of Ambien, they knocked the opposition out. Thanks to a vastly improved defense, Pat Fitzgerald’s troops won nine games for the first time since 1996. This year’s schedule is laced with seven home games (for the third straight year), plus a conspicuous absence of Ohio State and Michigan. That would normally send a ripple of excitement through a coach’s veins. However, the problem is the loss of 23 seniors, including QB C. J. Bacher and RB Tyrell Sutton, the keys to the offense, could pose a major problem. Mike Kafka, who started two games and rushed for 217 yards against Minnesota last season, is projected to take the snaps this year. The Wildcats may not sniff nine wins this season, but they should be able to sleepwalk their way to another bowl game.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Minnesota (9/26)

OHIO STATE – *4 / 7
Team Theme – COCKED AND LOADED
The definition of a dual-threat quarterback is one who has exceptional ability passing and running the football. The epitome of the same is Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State’s sophomore sensation. In his freshman season, he ran for 631 yards and threw for 1311 yards while completing 60.6 percent of his pass attempts. To those who question his passing ability, we say rubbish. His 146.5 QB rating was the best in the Big 10. The word around Columbus this year is “expect the unexpected”. What we expect to see is a newly unveiled “pistol offense”, one designed to maximize Pryor’s talents. “I can tell you the coaches are fired up. Coach Tressel is really fired up. I think this is going to be very fun. Everyone seems to be looking forward to this,” exclaimed Pryor. With no back-to-back travelers this season, a fifth straight Big 10 title looms.
PLAY ON: vs. IOWA (11/14)

PENN STATE – *5 / 4
Team Theme – OCTO MAN RETURNS
There are not many coaches we can do this with so, while we still can, let’s revisit the Joe Paterno library. Since Joe Pa became the head coach at Penn State in 1966, there have been 839 head coaching changes in Division 1A football programs – an average of more than seven per team. The octogenarian’s teams are 40-11 the last four seasons, while his defense is ranked No. 4 overall in that span, allowing 294 YPG. His 383 career-wins keeps him one-up on Bobby Bowden in the race of all-time winningest coaches. More important, he’s fully recovered from hip surgery and is back on the sidelines with his troops. The Lions were hit hard with player losses, especially in the defensive backfield, where all four starters are gone. “I’ve very concerned about it. We’ve got a long way to go,” said Paterno. Let’s hope he does, too.
PLAY ON: as dog vs. Ohio State (11/7)

PURDUE – 4 / 7
Team Theme – PLENTY OF HOPE
There was a tear in our eye when Joe Tiller left the Boilermakers. After all, he was, pure-and-simple, a moneymaking machine. In home games, that is, where Purdue was 41-29-1 ATS under his tenure. In what is fast becoming a trend in college football these days, a replacement had already been hired in anticipation of Tiller’s retirement. At Purdue, it was Danny Hope, head coach at Eastern Kentucky from 2003-07, where his teams went 32-8 in conference play. Hope worked under Tiller last year and during the 1997-2001 seasons. The offense loses Big 10 passing leader, Curtis Painter, in addition to WR Desmond Tardy and RB Kory Sheets. fifth-year SR QB Joey Elliott hopes to fill Painter’s shoes. “He has all the intangibles to be very good for us,” said Gary Nord, Purdue’s OC. Here’s hoping Nord is right.
PLAY ON: vs. Ohio State (10/17)

WISCONSIN – *6 / 5
Team Theme – GOOD, BETTER, BEST
You can pretty much assess a coach’s worth after his first three years on the job. If this coach owns a better record than his predecessor posted in the previous three year span, the new guy is generally on the path to success. If his team is underachieving, it’s almost always a matter of time before a pink slip is issued. In Brett Bielema’s case, he inherited a team that went 26-12 in its previous three seasons, all under his current boss, Barry Alvarez. The results are in and Bielema has passed the test. He went 28-11 in his first three seasons with the Badgers, and, in the process, improved an already staunch team. Last year’s unit set a school record with six games were decided by three or less points. That’s a tendency of good defensive coaches. They out-coach other coaches, even the better ones.
PLAY ON: vs. Michigan State (9/26)
__________________

[SoonerBS]

Top 10 softest nonconference schedules

Monday, June 15, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry

This week's top 10 list: the softest nonconference schedules in the country. I'm using a formula in which I've assigned a value to each opponent based on a 10-point scale, with a 10 going for a team that I expect to be an elite, top-five caliber team this year and with that game being in the powerhouse's home stadium. (It'd be a 9 if that powerhouse is the road team, meaning home-field is worth one point.) I'm also averaging the points out since some teams have three nonleague opponents and some have five.

1. Northwestern (Towson; EMU; at Syracuse; Miami [Ohio]) Quality point average: 2: Wow. The Wildcats face three FBS opponents and all three are projected to finish in the cellar of their respective conferences or at least conference divisions. Plus, that FCS team they've got, Towson, is coming off a 3-9 season. This is about as close to four sure wins as anyone is going to get.

2. Penn State (Akron; Syracuse; Temple; Eastern Illinois) Quality point average: 2.5: Yes, this is the same exact rating as Ole Miss. PSU wins (or is it loses?) the tiebreaker because the Nittany Lions didn't even schedule a road game and because Ole Miss at least faces someone who went to a bowl game in the past three seasons. PSU has six of its first seven games at home, and the closest thing to a formidable nonleague opponent is Temple, which is 3-34-1 against the Lions and hasn't knocked off Penn State since 1941. Akron also is an OK opponent, but is still coming off a 5-7 season. It's worth noting that this is only the third time in 16 years since PSU arrived in the Big Ten that the Nittany Lions have scheduled an FCS opponent.

3. Ole Miss (At Memphis; Southeastern Louisiana; UAB; Northern Arizona) Quality point average 2.5: The Rebels' schedule can't get any easier than this season. The in-conference slate breaks incredibly well, but we're focusing just on the out-of-league schedule, and let's be honest: No one should be scheduling two FCS opponents, but that's what the Rebels have got with home games against Southeastern Louisiana and Northern Arizona. (The Rebels have beaten their past 10 opponents from what is now the FCS level by an average of 29 ppg.) Hosting a UAB team has won six games in the past two seasons doesn't figure to be that much tougher. The Rebels do begin the season on the road against a decent Memphis team, although it's still just a little more than an hour drive and these are the same Tigers whom Ole Miss has beaten five straight times.

T4. Kansas State (UMass; at Louisiana; at UCLA; Tennessee Tech) Quality point average: 2.75: Bill Snyder's back, so get ready for the pastries to start rolling. On the positive side, UMass is a pretty good FCS team, but they're still FCS. Also, a road trip to an improving UCLA team will not be easy. The rest is just too soft.

T4. NC State (South Carolina; Murray State; Gardner-Webb; Pitt) Quality point average: 2.75: The Pack have eight home games, with all four of their out-of-league games in Raleigh. Opening against a solid South Carolina team won't be easy and Pitt also figures to be a challenge. The other two are FCS opponents. It's hardly brutal, although last season the Gamecocks did thump State, 34-0.

6. Rutgers (Howard; FIU; at Maryland; Texas Southern; at Army) Quality point average: 2.8: Like Ole Miss, NCSU and KSU, the Scarlet Knights have two FCS opponents. They also have a short road trip to Army and get a visit from an improving FIU program coached by Mario Cristobal, one of Greg Schiano's former top assistants. The main reason they're not up there with Northwestern and Ole Miss is because of a road trip to face a solid Maryland team, which is 24-2 against nonleague foes at home.

T7. Kentucky (Miami [Ohio] in Cincy; Louisville; ULM; EKU) Quality point average: 2.88: This is pretty dismal for an SEC squad. Not one of the Wildcats' opponents went to a bowl game last season, although at least they are playing someone from a BCS conference. Playing Miami (Ohio) in Cincinnati got them a half-point credit for a road game. Eastern Kentucky is an FCS team, but at least the Colonels won their league title. Still, because they're an FCS opponent, they warrant only one point.

T7. Arkansas (Missouri State; Texas A&M in Arlington; EMU; Troy) Quality point average: 2.88: There are two respectable games here: facing an Aggies program still trying to find its way in the state of Texas and against a Troy team that usually goes bowling. Neither of these games should scare an elite program, but they're still more than cakewalks.

9. Idaho (at Washington; San Diego State; at NIU; CSU) Quality point average: 3. If you've won only three games in the past two seasons, it's probably not a bad idea to go easy on the schedule. And the Vandals have done that. They play at winless Washington and then host a SDSU team that just went 2-10. They later visit a decent MAC team in Northern Illinois and then host Colorado State.

10. Wisconsin (NIU; Fresno State; Wofford; at Hawaii) Quality point average: 3.25: The Badgers should be sizeable favorites in all four games, with the toughest being the road trip to Hawaii. The Badgers are 10-1 against Northern Illinois and then face a Fresno team that is 1-5 against the Big Ten and will be travelling East with a brand-new QB. Wofford is a very good FCS team FWIW.

[ZBOIZ]

LSU will be in the top 5 next year contending for a NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

[SoonerBS]

What Team Is The Sleeper In The National Title Debate?

Over the next several weeks, as part of the CFN 2009 Preview, we'll examine some of the key questions going into the year with a daily discussion of the big topics.

Q: What team that no one is talking about has an honest shot at the national title?

A: Remembering the key word here is honest. It's not fair, but if you're not in a BCS league, you don't have a chance to play for the national title. I don't make the rules; I wish I did.

So, to be an honest out-of-the-blue national title contender a team needs to be good enough to be ranked but not hot enough to be getting any national respect, be in the right conference, and have the right schedule. Here are my four top contenders to break through the Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, USC foursome to potentially play for the national championship.

4. West Virginia - Jarrett Brown is the real deal as a replacement for Pat White at quarterback, while the defense should be terrific, especially at linebacker. If the Mountaineers can win at Auburn, they'll start to generate a national buzz, and considering two of the toughest remaining road games are against rebuilding South Florida and Cincinnati teams, and considering Colorado and Pitt have to come to Morgantown, there's a great chance Bill Stewart's club could be 11-0 going into the season finale against Rutgers. However, to get to the national title game, WVU has to be perfect. The same might not be true for the SEC or Big 12 champion.

3. Georgia - If the Bulldogs can beat a loaded Oklahoma State in Stillwater to start the season, they'll be thrown into the national title picture. Of course, it'll all come down to the Florida showdown, but the Dawgs are loaded on both sides of the ball with a phenomenal defense that's not going to buckle under the mere presence of Tim Tebow. It's asking too much to go unbeaten, but a one-loss SEC champion will likely play for it all. There can be a loss to, say, LSU, Oklahoma State, or even at Arkansas, but there must be a win over the Gators.

2. Penn State - The receiving corps reloaded and most of the big holes on defense were filled. Helped by the return of LB Sean Lee and QB Daryll Clark, leadership isn't an issue and there's enough talent across the board to be a double-digit favorite in eight games. One of the close battles should be against Iowa, but that's a revenge battle in Happy Valley. Ohio State also has to make the trip. Games at Illinois and the regular-season finale at Michigan State will be nasty, but any team that wants to think about playing for a national title has to win those.

1. Alabama - Don't jump off the bandwagon. The Tide is loaded with NFL talent, even if many of the future stars are underclassmen. No one's going to run on a big, talented, veteran run defense, and that includes Virginia Tech, who can't do anything but run, in the season opener. Unless there's a major upset, it's a four game season after the battle with the Hokies. LSU and Tennessee come to Tuscaloosa, and Auburn isn't anywhere near as good as the Tide. That means the one road game to truly worry about will be at Ole Miss. but despite all the Rebel hype, Alabama has more talent. Again, a one-loss SEC champion would likely play for the national title, so there can be one early slip. Bama might be good enough to avoid it.

Richard Cirminiello, CFN

Q: What team that no one is talking about has an honest shot at the national title?

A: Is Penn State too conservative for this question? I mean, I realize I don’t risk injury by being out on a limb, but it’s not as if the Lions are being mentioned in the same sentence as Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, or USC.

There are a couple of things to keep in mind about Penn State this season: First, while the team only returns about nine or 10 starters, it’s no longer in up-and down mode, having won at least nine games in four straight years. Plus, getting back Darryl Clark to run the offense and Sean Lee to quarterback the defense are huge. Sure, the secondary and receivers are concerns, but there’s enough talent in Happy Valley for the Lions to plug the holes and manage. Lord knows, they’ll have plenty of time to work out the kinks.

While almost inexcusable, the Penn State schedule is conducive to a long flirtation with the national title game. The Nittany Lions don’t go on the road until Oct. 3. Their out-of-conference slate is composed of a quartet of cream puffs, Akron, Syracuse, Temple, and Eastern Illinois. And the big game with Ohio State will be staged in State College. With that schedule, it’s very possible that this team can get a head of steam, regroup on the fly, and be unbeaten by the time the Buckeyes visit on Nov. 7.

Matthew Zemek, CFN

Q: What team that no one is talking about has an honest shot at the national title?

A: Georgia Tech. It's entirely conceivable (not likely, but conceivable) that the Yellow Jackets, with another year of polishing under Paul Johnson, can run the table. Their schedule lacks the heft of a probable BCS title game participant, but if everyone else stubs enough toes, the Rambling Wreck can take a cross-country trek to Pasadena.

Besides... if a team resides in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, or Pac-10, chances are that someone is talking about it. In the ACC (or a Pat White-less and Bobby Petrino-free Big East), national title talk doesn't generally enter a discussion.

Jon Miller, Publisher, HawkeyeNation.com

Q: What team that no one is talking about has an honest shot at the national title?

A:Notre Dame comes to mind due to one of the weakest Fighting Irish schedules in a long, long, but there have been some folks mentioning them as having a shot at it.

How about Ole Miss? I have gone through every BCS conference school and several of the usual suspects from non-BCS conferences and projected their entire seasons. The first time through, I put Ole Miss at 12-0. I am not yet ready to put these predictions into ink, but that would definitely have them in the national title discussion. If you want to get really out there, you might throw Cal into the mix, but they have to play at Oregon. Oregon, there’s one...beat Boise State on the road right out of the box then the road schedule in league is UCLA, Washington, Stanford and Arizona, with USC, Cal and Oregon State at home. They also host Purdue and Utah. No attention? Fine.

Hunter Ansley, Publisher, DraftZoo.com

Q: What team that no one is talking about has an honest shot at the national title?

A: Really, I don’t know if there is anyone with a legit shot this year. At least not a team that no one is talking about. The big three teams (Florida, Oklahoma, Texas) are so stacked that I think it will be pretty surprising not to see some combination of that trio in Pasadena.

But the BCS has been surprising before. And if I have to pick someone, I’m going to go with someone pretty risky. I mean a team that no one in the world is giving a chance on that level. A real Mine that Bird type of team. Sort of.

The Cal Bears. They’ve got a returning quarterback in Kevin Riley who will be entering his third year under quarterback guru Jeff Tedford. They’ve got the most explosive running back in the nation in Jahvid Best. The offensive line has three or four guys back, depending on who you ask, even though losing center Alex Mack will hurt, and the top receivers are all in school again.

Then there are the eight defensive starters back to try and top last year’s 34 takeaways. That’s including the entire secondary and the entire defensive line. Corner Syd’Quan Thompson might be the most underrated defensive back in the country.

And finally, the schedule sets up nicely. The only tough road game appears to be the early contest at Oregon, and while that won’t be easy, the Bears have beaten Oregon four of the last five times they’ve played, including the last meeting in Eugene. And USC might actually have a down year for the first time since Pete Carroll righted that ship. It won’t be easy, but if you’re looking for a legit dark horse, Cal’s a decent bet at 50-1 odds. .

[SoonerBS]

Solid Sleepers

June 16, 2009
By Judd Hall
VegasInsider.com


Let’s face it, future bets aren’t the most agreeable wager for a gambler to make. Bettors enjoy getting an immediate return on their investment if at all possible. And you have to wait for several months before you can cash the ticket on a futures play.

Despite the waiting game that you play for those props, there is no doubt that there is some value in these bets to get us to plunk down the cash. Yet you have those plays wisely that tie up your cash for a few months.

Some folks like to back teams just to win the national championship, but that’s like funneling the ocean through a 12-inch strainer. Why not improve your chances and look at wagers on which program will win a conference title?

Betting on conference winners will no doubt yield you some heavier favorites (Florida and Southern California are listed at -300 to win their respective leagues), but you can make a nice chunk of change on a few sleepers.

Here are a couple of teams that have a nice payday attached to them if they win their BCS conferences. You can find these odds on BetUS.

Rude A-wake-ning

The ACC has been Virginia Tech’s play land ever since they joined the league. The Hokies have won two of the three league title games they’ve played in. They’ve been able to make it into the contest thanks to playing in a division that hasn’t been all that competitive.

2009 will be a marked difference than what Frank Beamer has been accustomed to with teams like the Yellow Jackets (+700), Hurricanes (+600) and Tar Heels (+600) getting a lot of attention after solid 2008 campaigns. Problem is with those clubs is they’ll be public bets and we know that the public is wrong a lot of the time.

Wake Forest is sitting quietly in the background after an 8-5 record last season. That record is misleading when you consider that four of Wake's five losses were by seven points or less. There is no reason to think that the Demon Deacons can't improve since they're returning nine starters on offense, including the ACC’s most accurate passer in senior Riley Skinner.

The Deacs are rebuilding their defense with just four players coming back from last season. The plus side is that three of those four starters reside on the front line, which will help in applying pressure...especially when you consider that they were third in the ACC in allowing 116.1 rushing yards per game.

You can get Wake for a return of plus-1200 (risk $100 to win $1200) to win the ACC right now. That’s a risk worth your while when you look at the Demon Deacons’ schedule starts off with some winnable games against Baylor and Stanford. Also, their toughest tests of league play (Oct. 31 vs. Miami & Nov. 14 vs. Florida State) are on home turf.

They’re not 40, but they’re men!

It looked like the Cowboys were going to have a breakout season in2008 after opening with seven straight wins. But a heartbreaker against the Longhorns on Oct. 25 led to Oklahoma State closing out the campaign on a sour 2-4 note. During that stretch the Cowpokes lost by 36 to Texas Tech, gave up 61 points to Oklahoma and let Oregon drop 42 on them in the Holiday Bowl with its fourth quarterback of the year.

Despite that flameout, Mike Gundy is positive about his club’s chance this fall. And who can blame him when you have eight starters coming back from one of the most prolific offenses in school history. Zac Robinson is back under center for his senior season and he’ll have sophomore Dez Bryant to throw the ball to again this season. This duo combined for 1,480 yards through the air and 19 touchdowns. There’s no reason to think this pair won’t eclipse those numbers this fall.

The tough call is on defense, where they gave up a lot of points down the stretch…that’s where Bill Young comes in. Young is an OSU alum and has a lot of knowledge of the Big XII after running Kansas’ defense for six years before drawing up plays for the ‘Canes last season. He’ll have some veterans to work with, including the entire linebacking corp.

You’re currently able to back the Cowboys at plus-700, which is great value thanks to sharing the Big XII South with the likes of Oklahoma and Texas. The ‘Pokes are getting a gift of a schedule against the North with Mizzou and Colorado coming into Stillwater, while they travel to Iowa State.

OSU gets a chance to exact some revenge against the Longhorns at home this season. The only thing that really stands in the Cowboys’ way a Nov. 28 showdown at Oklahoma and they certainly have the firepower to compete in Norman.

[SoonerBS]

Schedule Analysis

June 17, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com


Without a playoff system in college football, there’s no sport in which scheduling is more important in terms of the national-championship race. Back in the 1990s, former Florida coach Steve Spurrier often bemoaned the fact that FSU and Miami had better chances to win it all compared to UF due to their cupcake conference slates in the ACC and Big East, respectively.

As usual, the Ball Coach had it right. Back then, the SEC teams beat up on each other all year and then had to win a league championship game. Even then, a one-loss team that won the SEC would usually be left out of the title mix.

Things have changed quite a bit since the ‘90s, however. For starters, the ACC expanded with the additions of Va. Tech, Boston College and Miami. Obviously, this made the ACC a better league and allowed the conference to break into divisions and have a championship game.

These days it’s the Big Ten and Pac 10 that are seemingly behind the times. Without a conference championship game, schools with one loss from the Big Ten and Pac 10 don’t have that early-December opportunity to notch a huge victory to pad their resume and get into the BCS Championship Game.

Last season was a classic example. With one loss apiece, Oklahoma and Florida were sent to Miami ahead of USC and Ohio St. Once the Gators knocked off unbeaten and top-ranked Alabama and the Sooners put a 62-spot up on 19th-ranked Missouri, there wasn’t even much discussion of who deserved to be in South Florida.

In 2007, we had a twice-beaten LSU team come from out of the SEC to win it all. That was made possible by an SEC Championship Game win over Tennessee just a week after losing at home in triple overtime to Arkansas.

Scheduling is certainly not an exact science. On one hand, schools want to schedule opponents tough enough for victories to be considered quality. On the flip side, slates have to be manageable enough to weather with enough healthy bodies remaining.

Let’s take a look at some notable schedules that will impact the national-title race, while also examining specific spots that gamblers should be wary of. We’ll begin our discussion in the Big Ten.

With the exception of Wisconsin and Illinois, every team in the Big Ten plays its 12 games consecutively without an open date. The Badgers play seven straight weeks before their bye week is sandwiched between home games against Iowa and Purdue. They close the regular season at Hawaii in a late-night contest to follow a day of championship games.

As for Ron Zook’s team, it is the only Big Ten school with a “normal” schedule. That’s to say the Illini have a pair of open dates to get fresh before key road tilts. After taking on Missouri and Illinois St. in Weeks 1 and 2, Illinois gets a breather on Sep. 19 to prep for the following week’s conference opener at Ohio St.

On Nov. 21, the Illini are off after hosting Northwestern. Then on Friday, Nov. 27, Illinois plays at Cincinnati before its regular-season finale vs. Fresno St. With games against the Bearcats and Bulldogs, in addition to a neutral-field season opener against Missouri, the Illini certainly have the toughest non-conference slate of all Big Ten schools.

I like Penn St. to win the Big Ten and its schedule is one of the main reasons why. The Nittany Lions’ four non-conference games are at home against scrub squads like Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois. Joe Paterno’s team gets its toughest game (vs. Ohio St.) in Happy Valley.

After going to Southern California to face USC last season, the Buckeyes will host the Trojans in Week 2 this year. They have only four true road games in 2009 and will probably be favored in three of those with the potential exception being the Nov. 7 trip to Penn St.

I feel like the third, fourth and fifth-best teams in the Big Ten will be Iowa, Illinois and Michigan St. If the Lions and/or Bucks falter, any of these three schools could capitalize like the Illini did in getting to the Rose Bowl in 2007.

With that said, the Hawkeyes don’t get any favors from how their schedule sets up. They have to go on the road to face Penn St., Wisconsin, Michigan St. and Ohio St. The Spartans get PSU and Iowa at home, but they go on the road to take on Notre Dame, Wisky, Illinois and Minnesota.

I touched on some SEC scheduling issues a few weeks back and will pile on some more here. By SEC standards, Florida’s schedule sets up beautifully. When the conference expanded the schedule to eight games earlier this decade, it gave each school one constant non-divisional foe while the other five non-division teams would rotate on and off schedules in two-year stretches.

Therefore, the Gators’ 2009 slate has UF missing Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn from the West division, instead playing Arkansas and Mississippi St. Florida plays LSU every year and will take on the Bayou Bengals in Baton Rouge on Oct. 10.

But even UF’s toughest game of the year sets up nicely. LSU plays at Georgia prior to taking on the Gators, while they get an open date before making the trek to Tiger Stadium. In non-conference play, UF hosts Charleston Southern, Troy, FIU and FSU.

Georgia opens up in Stillwater at Oklahoma St. The Dawgs also host Arizona St. and play at Ga. Tech in non-conference action. They host South Carolina in Week 2. The Gamecocks will be coming off a season-opening road trip to N.C. St. for a Thursday night showdown.

The Gene Chizik Era at Auburn begins with four straight home games, including a return visit from West Virginia in Week 3. The Tigers will be looking to avenge a 34-17 loss in Morgantown from 2008.

As I’ve said several times in recent weeks, the SEC West looks like a three-team race between Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU. The Rebels get the Tide and the Tigers in Oxford, but let’s not forget that Houston Nutt’s (new) team has never been to the Georgia Dome for the SEC Championship Game. Every other western-division school has, while Vandy, Kentucky and South Carolina have been shut out of Atlanta from the East.

Unlike last season when USC had its toughest games at home, the Trojans have to hit the road a bunch this year. They have to go to Ohio St., Cal, Notre Dame, Oregon and Arizona St. On the bright side, USC closes the regular season with three straight home games versus Stanford, UCLA and Arizona.

Jeff Tedford’s Bears play their lid-lifter at home vs. Maryland. Remember, Cal went into College Park for a noon Eastern game last year and got throttled by a 35-27 count in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. In Week 3, Cal has to fly east to challenge Minnesota and also is on the road the following week at Oregon.

Is there a national-title contender in the ACC? Ask me after Va. Tech and ‘Bama throw down in the ATL. Frank Beamer’s team has other challenging non-conference tilts, including a Sep. 19 game vs. Nebraska in Blacksburg. Also, the Hokies will be out for revenge in a Nov. 5 trip to East Carolina. They only have six games at Lane Stadium, however, and if V-Tech makes the ACC Championship Game, it will play eight total games outside of Blacksburg. That’s not a national-title recipe from a scheduling perspective.

Texas had a two-year series with Ohio St. in 2005 and ’06, but you’ll find no such non-conference heavyweights on its 2009 slate. The Longhorns host ULM, UTEP and UCF, while going on the road to take on Wyoming. Mack Brown’s team will have its season determined by a three-week stretch from Oct. 17-31. It begins in Dallas vs. OU before back-to-back road games against Missouri and Oklahoma St.

The Sooners open against Max Hall and the BYU Cougars in Arlington. They get a bye week before playing at Miami on Oct. 3. For those not familiar with South Florida weather in early October, I can assure you that it’s as intense as the heat in Norman in late August (if not worse).

Kansas could be a sleeper squad in the Big 12. The Jayhawks might be favored in each of their first six games, so it’s certainly conceivable that they could be unbeaten for a home game vs. Oklahoma on Oct. 24.

Finally, let’s mention a few non-BCS contenders that could make some noise. If BYU can find a way to shock Oklahoma in Week 1, the Cougars could be in business. That’s because they have several other opportunities to open eyes and each comes at home. FSU will come to Provo in Week 3, while BYU gets its two toughest Mountain West games (Utah and TCU) at home.

The Horned Frogs aren’t afraid to step out of conference, either. They go on the road to throw blows with a pair of ACC squads in Virginia and Clemson in Weeks 2 and 4, respectively. Gary Patterson’s team plays at BYU but gets to host the Utes.

Utah has won 14 straight games and will likely take a 16-game winning streak into Eugene to face the Ducks on Sep. 19. Give Oregon credit for giving the “mid-majors” a chance to represent at its expense. The Ducks open the year at Boise St.

Speaking of the Broncos, they get to play 13 regular-season games. Chris Petersen’s squad has six ‘non-Saturday’ games, including a Wednesday trip to Tulsa.

East Carolina should be the class of Conference USA with 16 total starters returning from a nine-win team that upset both Va. Tech and WVU in 2008. However, the non-conference slate is plenty challenging with trips to Morgantown and Chapel Hill, in addition to a Thursday home game vs. the revenge-minded Hokies.

Last but not least, let’s talk about the Troy Trojans, who have been one of my favorite teams to wager on over the last half-decade. Since 2004, Troy is 11-5 in 16 double-digit underdog situations. It will definitely have that role in a Week 2 trip to The Swamp. The Trojans also have non-conference road games at Bowling Green and Arkansas.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Best non-conference games of 2009:
1-USC at Ohio St.
2-Alabama vs. Va. Tech (Ga. Dome in Atlanta)
3-Georgia at Oklahoma St.
4-Georgia at Ga. Tech
5-Oregon at Boise St.

--Like 10 of the 12 teams from the Big Ten, Vandy’s regular-season schedule is composed of games in 12 consecutive weeks sans an open date.

--Ga. Tech will face three SEC schools in non-conference play. The Yellow Jackets go to Starkville on Oct. 3, Music City on Oct. 31 and host UGA in their regular-season finale.

--Spurrier says he thinks has a team “on the verge” in this Q+A with The State. The schedule won’t help Spurr Dog. According to Phil Steele’s magnificent magazine, the Gamecocks have the nation’s toughest schedule. FSU’s is ranked second, followed by Oklahoma, Mississippi St. and Minnesota.

--As usual, Paul Finebaum of the Mobile Press-Register nailed it in this column about Alabama AD Mal Moore, who was a regular punching bag in this space before landing Nick Saban.

--Just like UGA fifth-year senior QB Joe Cox doesn't really get a warm-up game for his first season as a starter since the Dawgs open at Oklahoma St., Washington QB Jake Locker doesn't have a chance to shake off the rust in his return to the lineup after missing most of last year with a shoulder injury. The Huskies, who went winless in 2008 and saw head coach Ty Willington pink slipped, open at home against LSU.

[SoonerBS]

CFN Daily Roundtables

June 18

The Most Overrated Team Will Be ... ?

Over the next several weeks, as part of the CFN 2009 Preview, we'll examine some of the key questions going into the year with a daily discussion of the big topics.


Q: The most overrated team will be ... ?

A: Ole Miss. The love has been off the charts following a surprise season. Everyone will have the Rebels somewhere in the top ten, and the Sporting News has them No. 5 overall, but I'm not buying in quite yet.

When gushing about Ole Miss, everyone seems to point out the relatively favorable schedule. First of all, ranking teams in the preseason should be about how good the teams are and not where they'll end up (this is the fundamental flaw in how many do rankings, but that's for another time). Second, the schedule is going to be tougher than it looks.

Don't assume wins at South Carolina and Vanderbilt to start the SEC season. The Commodores are going to be almost as strong as last year, and certainly better on offense, while the Gamecocks will be strong among the starting 22. Just because Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU have to come to Oxford, that won't guarantee wins.

The defensive back seven will be decent, but not elite. It'll get helped immensely by the pass rush, while the offensive line isn't going to be consistent enough to hold up week in and week out against the top SEC defensive fronts. And then there's the pressure factor.

It's one thing to have no real expectations and to come out of the blue in a down year for the SEC, but it's another to have the bull's-eye on your back. Everyone in the SEC West will be better, and Tennessee and South Carolina, also on the schedule, will have improved. Of course, everyone points to the win over Florida as evidence of how good the team was, and will be, but 1) about six things had to happen, from just missed post patterns to a fourth down stop to a missed kick to a blown coverage, to beat the Gators. No excuses, Ole Miss made plays when the Gators didn't, but that was a strange sort of perfect storm upset. 2) Ole Miss lost the two games following the win in Gainesville.

Don't get me wrong, this is a very, very good team, but it's not among the five best in America, and for those who try to project, this won't turn out to be one of the five best in the country.

Four of my other top five overrated teams ...

2. Virginia Tech - Unless there's some semblance of a passing game unearthed over the next two months, the Hokies are going to get swarmed over by the Alabama run defense in the season-opener. The O line isn't good enough for the team to be in the top ten.

3. Boise State - I always get yelled at whenever I dare to suggest that playing in the WAC is the main reason for the great record over the years, but this isn't a top 15 based on talent with lines that aren't top 20-worthy and a suspect receiving corps. Would you take Boise State over Georgia, who's ranked lower in almost every preseason poll, on a neutral field in the season opener? Of course you wouldn't.

4. Ohio State - If you're going by what the record will be, OSU is a top ten team. It'll finish up 10-2, 9-3 at worst. If you're going by how good the team is going into the season, it belongs around 15-to-20.

5. Texas - It's all relative. Everyone feels bad about what happened to the Longhorns last year so they're the automatic No. 2 pick over Oklahoma. I have a gut feeling that the Sooners, rebuilt O line and all, are better, and I have another gut feeling (or maybe it's the burrito I ate) that there will be at least two losses (OU and Oklahoma State). Again, it's all relative. Of course this is a top five team.

Richard Cirminiello/span>, CFN

Q: The most overrated team will be ... ?

A: Oregon. I sort of hate to finger them because the Ducks are one of college football’s guilty pleasures, a high-octane, wide-open offense decked out in 22nd century uniforms. They’re fun. They’re just not going to live up to last year’s finish or this year’s preseason ranking.

When it comes to the Ducks, too many people are getting confused by the shiny objects, like QB Jeremiah Masoli and RB LaGarrette Blount. Yes, the Ducks will score points, but you can’t pencil in double-digit wins on that alone. Digging deeper reveals that long-time head coach Mike Bellotti is no longer on the sidelines, the offensive line is undergoing an extreme makeover, and the defensive line has a bunch of holes. Chip Kelly has proven to be a genius as an offensive coordinator, but being the head coach brings a whole new set of challenges and pressures. Is he ready? No one really knows.

While Oregon will still be fun, it’s not going to win as many games as most are anticipating. In fact, with a schedule that begins with Boise State, Purdue, Utah, and California, the Ducks might very well be out of the Top 25 before the end of September.

Matthew Zemek, CFN

Q: The most overrated team will be ... ?

A: USC.

The Trojans will go 11-2, but that probably won't get them the top 5 ranking they've been assigned in most quarters. It will also fail to get the Men of Troy another Pac-10 title, which Oregon will snag.

Don't get all riled up, Angelinos. This is the law of averages entering the arena. Sometime, the uninterrupted string of trophies is going to come to an end. This looks like the year, and it shouldn't be hard to understand why.

1) No Mark Sanchez (or quarterback continuity) means no two-year run under center. Matt Leinart was around for three years, John David Booty two. Had Sanchez returned, USC would have been ready to rock once more. Now, that's in question.

2) Linebackers. Who's gonna replace the likes of Maualuga, Cushing, and Co.?

3) Kickers. Gone. They weren't unreal, but they were solid. What if the new booters go bust in biggies?

4) The schedule: At Oregon. At Cal. At Arizona State. Not what you want in a season when the Trojans will be replacing so many bodies, and a new quarterback will have to handle raucous road environments for the first time as a USC starter.

11-2 would be a solid season for this club. It really would. It simply seems that the preseason rankings suggest a 12-1 finish instead.

Jon Miller, Publisher, HawkeyeNation.com

Q: The most overrated team will be ... ?

A:I think you also have a few definitions of overrated. If a team starts the year in the Top 10 and finishes 22-25ish, I think that team is more overrated than a team that start's out in the teen's and doesn't make it into the final BCS standings. Others might feel differently, but that's where I am going. I love Phil Steele's magazine. It's my favorite every year. I agreed with him last year when he didn't have Illinois in his Top 50, and he backed off the Kansas love. Phil and I both missed on Wisconsin being overrated, but a friend and colleague told me last August that he felt Wisconsin would be lucky to be in a bowl game, and they were.

This year, Steele has Penn State ranked as the No. 5 team in the nation. I just don't see them finishing inside the Top Five and I think they will be fortunate to finish inside the Top 15. They have one of the weakest non-conference schedules of any team in any BCS conference, something I pointed out months ago before ESPN started writing about that fact, and something that caused Penn State fans to email me all sorts of nasty comments, suggesting that since I cover Iowa, I am biased. Color the worldwide leader in black and gold then, right? If a team other than USC, Ohio State, Florida or Texas was losing three first team all conference offensive linemen, their top four pass catchers, two NFL defensive ends and all four members of their secondary, plus productive kicking specialists, they would be lucky to be ranked 25th, much less fifth. Penn State is not those four programs, circa 2009. They have a great and rich tradition, but somehow their fans forgot the first five years of this decade, which is the majority of the decade, and their 26-33 record between 2000-2004. Northwestern had more wins during that time. So did Syracuse, Iowa State, Minnesota, Arkansas, Virginia and several other programs that can't hold a candle to Penn State's history since Joe Pa took over. Since then, they have been very good, but they were also getting really good recruiting classes during that five year stretch of poor results. I am not yet convinced they are back to reloading, even in a Big Ten that is not all that great.

In addition to their four out of conference wins they will post, they play Indiana and Purdue, so there is six wins right there. Perhaps I am being nuts here, because winning nine or ten games doesn't seem like a herculean feat, so perhaps they will finish the year ranked inside the Top 15. But they will be posers, a point that will be proven in the bowl game. Also, anyone that picks Missouri in their preseason Top 25 is in for a letdown; they probably struggle to make it to a bowl game .

Hunter Ansley, Publisher, DraftZoo.com

Q: The most overrated team will be ... ?

A: I don’t receive enough hate mail as it is, so why not remedy that right quick?

The answer is Alabama. LLook, I’ve learned never to count Nick Saban out, and it’s not like he doesn’t have loads of talent ready to step in and return the Tide to glory, but I’m starting to wonder why everyone last year thought that this team was a year away. I don’t think Alabama will be bad by any stretch of the imagination, but I have my doubts about the deservedness of their possible top five preseason ranking.

Remember last year? All those close wins. 17-14 at home against Kentucky. 24-20 at home against Ole Miss. A 20-6 win over Tulane in Bryant-Denny. Even the overtime victory at LSU lost some luster as the season went on. Well, a lot of the guys responsible for those victories are gone. You can say that Andre Smith’s absence was the reason that Utah loss, and I’ll agree. But he’ll be absent for every game this year. So will center Antoine Caldwell. That’s going to hurt the offense more than most people think. And even if John Parker Wilson didn’t win many games on his own, he definitely didn’t lose many either. Greg McElroy may grow into a great quarterback, but you can’t discount the fact that most first-year SEC passers struggle.

Which brings me to the Alabama defense. Sure, getting nine starters back is a huge deal, and the defense will again be scary. But one of the two graduates was free safety Rashad Johnson, who Saban called him one of the most intelligent players he’s ever coached. That’s hard to replace in any scheme, but losing the free safety is an especially big blow to a Saban squad. It certainly hurt his defenses at LSU.

Don’t get me wrong, Alabama isn’t going to lose five games, but this could still be a disappointing team./p>

[homerbush]

this is the best thread ever, keep it up.

[SoonerBS]

Big XII Breakdown

June 22, 2009
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com


For all intents and purposes, the BIG 12 CONFERENCE has become a main player in the BCS picture.

The conference has proven that quality, not quantity, earns national championships while the loop continues to get stronger by the season. However, Oklahoma’s loss to Florida in last year’s BCS title game perpetuated a problem that has officials in the conference concerned.

The BIG 12 has fallen short in bowl games where, since they expanded to a 12-team league in 1999, the conference is 38-39 SU and 31-44 ATS in post-season play. Worse, against bowl opponents with a win percentage of .750 or greater, the Big Dozen doesn’t get the job done, going just 12-21 SU and 8-25 ATS, including 3-14 ATS when laying points against teams of this ilk. Do yourself a favor and save that stat for the bowl games later this season.

A known haven for quarterbacks, two of the top three finishers in last year’s Heisman Trophy race, winner Sam Bradford of Oklahoma and runner-up Colt McCoy of Texas, figure to keep the focus on the BIG 12 regular season race. They will be pushed by the likes of Kansas’ Todd Reesing and Oklahoma State’s Zac Robinson in the race for QB supremacy.

Returning starters are listed alongside each team’s name (returning QB’s designated with an *).

BIG 12

BAYLOR – *9 / 9
Team Theme – ART SMILES
It’s safe to say Art Briles put smiles on the faces of many Bear alumni last season. While the Bears improved only game over the 2007 edition, huge strides were made on both sides of the ball. Those same smiles are again in place with the return of 18 starters (20 including special teams - the most since 1969). The offense is keyed by dynamic SO QB Robert Griffin who passed for over 2000 yards while managing to rush for more than 800 yards last year. ESPN.com’s Bruce Feldman says Griffin is the fastest man to ever play quarterback in college football. Griffin also graduated No. 7 in his high school class. Like last year, the Bears will take on 8 bowlers this season. “We feel really good about the direction we are going and about how we are going to get there,” beamed Briles. PLAY ON: vs. Connecticut (9/19)

COLORADO – *9 / 4
Team Theme – BAR-MITZVAH!
“Every place I’ve been we’ve raised the bar. That time has come here.” Those were the words of head coach Dan Hawkins, when asked of his goal of 10 wins this season. Is that a bold prediction or a bold intent? What we do know is Hawkins’ team lost 110-man games to either injury or illness from his two-deep roster last season. And it was part of the reason 95 freshmen were forced to start games the past two seasons. The Buffaloes return 10 starters on offense, including JR QB Cody Hawkins, the coach’s son. The offensive line is the strength of the team with 6 of the top 7 players back. It’s what sprung RB Darrell Scott all over the field in the spring game, prompting SPORTING NEWS TODAY college football staff writer Matt Hayes to exclaim, “Scott was a beast in spring drills.” Maybe the bar isn’t high enough.
PLAY ON: vs. Missouri (10/31)

IOWA STATE – *9 / 6
Team Theme – TRADE UP
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A follow-up on the Gene Chizik “trade” to Auburn: the coach to be named later was Paul Rhoads, defensive coordinator with the Tigers last season and native Iowan. Rhoads was also the DC at Pittsburgh (2000-07) and a defensive coach for five years before that at LSU. Rhoads captured Big East Defensive Coordinator of the Year honors in 2007. Quite a nice resume, to say the least. His new DC is Wally Burnham from USF (10th in the nation in team defense last year). The new OC is Tom Hearn, who re-wrote school records at Rice the past two seasons. Returning QB Austen Arnaud figures to benefit the most from this transition. With Florida transfer RB Bo Williams entrenched in the backfield, the Cyclones should snap a 17-game road-losing skein – the nation’s longest - sooner than later.
PLAY ON: vs. Texas A&M (10/31)

KANSAS – *8 / 7
Team Theme – ROCK CHALK JAYHAWK
According to Rivals.com, Mark Mangino knows what you're thinking. Kansas is a basketball school. Kansas hasn't won a conference football championship since 1968. "I have heard it all and I don't think any of those things are a big enough detriment to keep us from our goals," says Mangino. "When we came here there really wasn't a lot of talent. It was almost like a I-AA program." That’s not the case today. Last season's 8-5 record was a letdown, though KU did go to back-to-back bowl games for the first time in school history. Unsung QB Todd Reesing is 20-6 as a starter, tossing for 7374 yards and 65 TD’s the past two seasons. Favorites to win the Big 12 North title, Kansas could be 6-0 when Oklahoma comes to town in late October. Yes, KU is a football school, too.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Oklahoma (10/24)

KANSAS STATE – 7 / 8
Team Theme – GUESS WHO’S COMING TO DINNER
Who said you can never go back home again? Not Bill Snyder, that’s for sure. The 69-year old coaching legend returns to the sidelines in Manhattan where here compiled a 136-68 record with the Wildcats during his tenure from 1989-2005, including 11 bowl games. That was, by the way, after inheriting a team that was on a 0-26-1 run. Lest you think this man can’t coach, or is past his prime, consider this: the 136 wins equaled the amount KSU totaled the previous 56 seasons. Snyder assembled 3 former head coaches with 77 years of combined experience. Some of his former assistants include Bob Stoops, Mike Stoops, Jim Leavitt, Brett Bielema and Mark Mangino. The biggest shoes to fill are those of departed QB Josh Freeman. His replacement, JR Carson Coffman, saw action in six games last season. Guess who’s home again?
PLAY ON: vs. Kansas (11/7)

MISSOURI – 5 / 4
Team Theme – THE CHASE IS OVER
It’s funny how being in the right place at the right time makes all the difference in the world. With one winning season in his first four years with the Tigers, Gary Pinkel turned his fate over to QB Chase Daniel in 2005. Four straight bowl appearances and a 37-16 record later, Daniel is off hoping to land a job with the Redskins in the NFL while Pinkel has inked a long-term, multi-million dollar deal with Missouri. Is that fair? Hardly. Also gone is WR Jeremy Maclin, a first-round draft choice of the Philadelphia Eagles. Suddenly, Pinkel’s coaching prowess is on the line. With 22 wins the last two years (only Oklahoma and USC have more), and only nine starters back this season, look for Pinkel to fall prey to the law of diminishing returns in 2009.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Nebraska (10/8)

NEBRASKA – 5 / 6
Team Theme – FLU THE COUP
Bo Pelini’s personality is highly infectious and it appears to have reached pandemic proportions at Nebraska. In other words, football fever is running rampant throughout Lincoln these days, much like it used to in the good old days. Inheriting a team last year that came off its worst season since 1961, Pelini went to work doing what he does best, namely orchestrating the defense. A 127-YPG defensive improvement, highlighted by a rush ‘D’ that was the most improved in the nation, resulted in a nine-win effort, the most by a first-year coach in 2008. Sure, eight opponents that were .500 or better last year dot the schedule, but there are no back-to-back road games. Is a sophomore jinx in the offing for Pelini? We doubt it. Not in a city where winning is contagious and the coach is immune to losing. PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Oklahoma (11/7)

OKLAHOMA – *5 / 9
Team Theme – KILLER B’s
The stage is set for OU to win their fourth conference championship in a row. Like last year, when the Sooners faced the toughest schedule in the country, they will need to get past eight opponents who were bowl teams the previous season (four of which won 10-plus games). It should not be a problem for this deeply talented squad. A high-powered offense is in good hands behind Heisman Trophy winning QB Sam Bradford. Defensively, the entire line returns and all are NFL caliber players. In all, four starters on this year’s squad bypassed the NFL to return for another year. It’s no wonder Bob Stoops has joined the legendary likes of legendary coaches Bernie Owen, Bud Wilkinson and Barry Switzer as the only four coaches in school history to win 100 games. He’s a winner and so are his teams.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Baylor (10/10)

OKLAHOMA STATE – *8 / 6
Team Theme – ZAC ATTACK
Some feel the Cowboys may be the best football team in the state of Oklahoma. Eight starters return from the second-most prolific offense in OSU history, led by dynamic SR QB Zac Robinson. WR Dez Bryant and RB Kendall Hunter combined for 38 TD’s in 2008. Matt Hayes, head college football writer for SPORTING NEWS, calls Hunter the best running back in the nation. “By December, everyone will know about him,” said Hayes. A schedule loaded with eight home games means OSU will be on the road only four times this season and three of those rod foes posted losing records last year. Incidentally, all three regular season losses last year were against opponents ranked No. 1, 2 and 3 at the time. With new DC Bill Young (Miami Fla) influencing the defense, our opening statement could prove prophetic. “How about them Cowboys!”
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Missouri (10/17)

TEXAS – *8 / 4
Team Theme – SIMPLY THE BEST
As the only team in the nation that has started and finished the season the AP Top 15 the last nine years, the Longhorns figure to extend that streak in 2009 behind a wealth of returning talent. It begins with sixteen starters coming back this season, including Heisman-finalist QB Colt McCoy, whose 9732 career passing yards top all returning signal callers in 2009. McCoy’s 70.2 career completion percentage is also the best in the land. If you don’t think Texas is serious about the young Colt winning the Heisman this year, then think again. Seven full pages in the 2009 Texas Spring Prospectus were devoted to McCoy. The country’s best team away from home, in terms of win percentage the last 10 years (51-16, .761), the Horns will look to continue their 169 straight-week skein inside the USA TODAY poll this year. Don’t bet against them.
PLAY ON vs. Texas Tech (9/19)

TEXAS A&M – *9 / 7
Team Theme – BAD BLOOD
A 4-8 season under first-year head coach Mike Sherman was embarrassing, but it gives the Aggies plenty of reason to come to play with a fully focused effort in 2009. An assault by Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach on the A&M program via the press did the trick. It concerned former Aggie QB Stephen McGee and occurred after the NFL draft when Leach proclaimed, “The Dallas Cowboys like him (McGee) more than his coaches at A&M did.” In the words of the Hatfields and the McCoys, “them’s fightin’ words”. To which Sherman countered, “Coach Leach is in no position to comment about my relationship with Stephen McGee.” Perhaps you can issue statements like Leach did after you’ve beat an opponent four straight years by a 165-76 margin. You should also know when to zip your lip.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Texas Tech (10/24)

TEXAS TECH – 5 / 7
Team Theme – WOULDA COULDA SHOULDA
The warning signs were there. Eighteen returning starters and quick-strike offense piloted by a record-setting quarterback had all the earmarks of a special team. The 2008 Red Raiders did not disappoint. A 10-0 start had Mike Leach entertaining visions of playing for all the marbles in the BCS title game. Then it all fell apart. A 44-point loss at Oklahoma was followed by a lethargic seven-point victory over lowly Baylor. Then, at 11-1 for the year, the Red Raiders went down in flames in the Cotton Bowl against Ole Miss and the magical season was gone. Now, with Graham Harrell, the only QB in college football history with back-to-back 5000 yard seasons, and his main go-to WR Michael Crabtree playing for pay in the NFL, the Big 12’s leader with 16-straight bowl eligible seasons will be hard pressed to match last year’s dream-like campaign.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Oklahoma (11/21)

[SoonerBS]

Conference USA Preview

June 28, 2009
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com


The CONFERENCE USA is 12 years old and like a youngster about to enter puberty, they are breaking out all over.

Four teams from the league reached the 70-point scoring plateau in a game last year. That represented twice as many that had scored that many points in CUSA history.

Teams in the league gained an average 401.8 YPG for the season, second only to the BIG 12 CONFERENCE in total yardage production in 2008. Leading the charge was Houston QB Case Keenum, the nation’s leader in total offense, who tossed for nearly three miles and 44 TD’s.

The CUSA was home to the most improved team in the land last year when Rice went from 3-9 to 10-3. Yes, it was a breakout year for this conference in 2008…

ALABAMA BIRMINGHAM – *11 / 7
Team Theme – NO LONGER HAM STRUNG
Head coach Neil Callaway enters his third year on the sidelines in Birmingham with promise aplenty for this season and the future ahead. That’s because his Blazers enjoy the fruits of more than 68 scholarship players (82) for the first time in three years. They also welcome back 51 lettermen, including 18 returning starters (all 11 on offense) and versatile QB Joe Webb who passed for over 2300 yards and rushed for over 1000 yards last season. Holding the most promise for Callaway, though, is a defense that improved dramatically at the end of the season in 2008. In the first three games of last year’s campaign UAB’s stop unit allowed 129 points and 1703 total yards, including 702 rushing. Over the final three games, those numbers ratcheted down to 41 points, 848 yards and 258 rushing. We like the turn of events.
PLAY ON: vs. Memphis (11/14)

CENTRAL FLORIDA – *10 / 6
Team Theme – OFFENSIVELY CHALLENGED
The defense we lauded on this page last year more than lived up to it’s billing when they improved its stats for the third straight year. The good news is that six of the seven starters from the front seven are back in 2009. That same unit led the CUSA in rush defense and pass efficiency. To top it off, an already strong LB corps returns Cory Hogue and Jordan Richards, who missed most of last season with injuries. On the other side of the ball is an offense that shriveled almost 200 YPG in 2008. Part of the reason is the Knights were one of four teams to start a true freshman QB (Rob Calabrese) in the majority of games last season. With 10 starters back from last year’s shrunken offense here’s hoping they accept the challenge and show up this year.
PASS

EAST CAROLINA – *8 / 8
Team Theme – DEPP THROAT
When it comes to weighing the strength of a nine-win season, there is no better barometer than putting a team’s opponents on the scale. That being the case, the Pirates’ victories against the ACC champion (Virginia Tech) and the Big East runner-up (West Virginia) last year validated Skip Holtz as a heavyweight in the world of non-BCS coaches. Not only did Holtz continue his climb up the win-ladder - ECU has increased its victory total every year since he arrived – his troops went 3-0 against ranked opponents in 2008. Hence, it’s no surprise that Skippy is creamy-smooth when it comes to covering the spread (31-20 ATS with the Pirates). The defending CUSA champs welcome 16 starters back, including four all-conference players. Johnny Depp’s favorite team will need to fight their way successfully past 7 bowlers and a Division 1AA playoff foe and keep its strangle hold on the CUSA to continue raising the bar. All hands on deck!
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Memphis (10/27)


HOUSTON – *8 / 5
Team Theme – CASE IN POINT
When you are a second-year head coach, off a bowl-winning debut season, there is no better feeling than knowing the Conference Player of the Year will be calling signals in your huddle. That’s what having QB Case Keenum means to Kevin Sumlin. Keenum tossed for almost three miles and 44 TD’s while leading the nation in total offense last year. Points aplenty come from super-sophomores. RB Bryce Beall rushed for 1247 yards and led CUSA in scoring with 102 points and WR Tyron Carrier posted 80 receptions good for 1026 yards and nine TD’s. In fact, 86% of the offense is back and anxious to at repeat last year’s feat. The season-ending loss to Rice, in which Keenum put up 42 points while completing an NCAA record 25 straight passes, will certainly be a game the Cougars will point for in 2009.
PLAY ON: vs. Rice (11/28) - *KEY

MARSHALL – *7 / 8
Team Theme –PLOP, PLOP, FIZZ, FIZZ
Like college basketball teams that find themselves “on the bubble” before the start of the NCAA Tournament, Mark Snyder is there, too. The likeable coach knows that if he is to avoid a visit by the Grim Reaper, he’ll need to post his first winning season since taking over the Thundering Herd program four years ago. It all starts with a defense that returns eight starters, including all-1st team CUSA DL Albert McClellan. The former CUSA Defensive Player of the Year joins a line that returns intact. The stop-troops will be under the tutelage of new DC Rick Minter, former Cincinnati head coach. On the offensive front, Marshall returns seven starters, including QB Mark Cann, RB Darius Marshall (a second team all-CUSA performer) and TE Cody Slate. The players are in place. Snyder and his effervescent personality will be looking for relief.
PASS

MEMPHIS – *4 / 7
Team Theme – WILL HE OR WON’T HE?
With five JUCO transfers and seven transfers from other Division-I schools, competition will be fierce for starting spots on the Tigers’ roster in 2009. That’s good news for head coach Tommy West, who took his squad bowling last year for the fourth time in the last five seasons. It will be even better news should the appeal for a sixth year of eligibility for oft-injured QB Will Hudgens be granted by the NCAA. Regardless, Memphis shook an 0-3 start to make it to the St. Petersburg Bowl behind the services of QB Akelon Hall. He’s back, along with SR RB Curtis Steele, a second team all-CUSA member, who rushed for 1223 yards last season. Rest assured, West won’t lose any sleep worrying about Hudgens’ status. A defense that made huge strides last year finds him sleeping like a baby these days.
PLAY ON: vs. Central Florida (10/3)

RICE – 4 / 8
Team Theme – CHASED OUT
What can improving a team’s defense 59 YPG over the course of one season mean to a team? Plenty, if you’re the Rice Owls. The outcome of the 2008 upgrade speaks for itself. The Owls allowed 10 less PPG, scored 10 PPG more than they did and saw its win total ratchet to 10, for the first time since 1949. As a result, they were the most improved FBS team last season. Unfortunately, the rags-to-riches story may be a one-verse chapter for the Owls, who lose CUSA Player of the Year QB Chase Clement to graduation. Clement filled the air for 4119 yards and 44 TD’s during last year’s remarkable turnaround effort. This year, the Owls loses lose 97% of its passing and 93% of their running attack. To make matters worse, the first three games of the season are on the road. Ouch.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. UAB (9/5)

SMU – *8 / 8
Team Theme – JONESIN’ FOR WINS
Some things in life are expensive, while others are flat out costly. It depends on the size of your checkbook. The regents at SMU have determined the $2 million dollars per victory paid to June Jones last season is merely a down payment on what’s in store. The problem is, at this rate, he could be working for minimum wage by the time his contract expires in 2012. We understand the Ponies were the youngest team in the country last year when 13 true freshmen found their names on the season opening two-deep roster. But the fact of the matter is the mega-dollars being showered upon Jones should buy more than one win against a Division I-AA team (Texas State). The good news is the aforementioned freshmen are now sophomores. That and the fact there are only four years remaining on June-bug’s contract.
PASS

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI – *8 / 8
Team Theme – HAT TIP
A tip of the hat is in order for the fine job by rookie head coach Larry Fedora last year. He stepped in and filled big shoes left by former coach Jeff Bower. As a result, the Eagles will be riding a 15-year win streak and seven-game bowl win streak this season. Better yet, Fedora welcomes back a plethora of talent from last year’s squad, including QB Austin Davis, who set school freshmen records for passing yards (3128) and TD’s (23). Joining Davis are first-team CUSA performers, RB Damion Fletcher and WR DeAndre Brown. On the defensive side of the ball, USM welcomes back three All-CUSA members from last year’s team. Best of all, a schedule loaded with seven teams that ended the season with sub .500 records has Fedora brimming with confidence.
PLAY ON: vs. Virginia (9/19)

TEXAS EL PASO – *8 / 7
Team Theme – TOE MAIN POISON
Slowly but surely, Mike Price is getting it right. After falling eight points short of bowl-eligibility in 2007, his team finished one-game light of making weight last year. A strong returning cast this year is led by the powerful arm of JR QB Trevor Vittatoe, who has tossed for 6375 yards and 58 TD’s in two seasons with UTEP. He’s joined in the backfield with the Miners’ top two RB’s from 2008 and WR Kris Adams, a CUSA honorable team member. If Price can somehow get past a troublesome trend of losing games during the second half of the season (the Miners are just 3-15 the final six games of the campaign the last three years), he just may have this team bowling again at season’s end.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. New Mexico State (9/19)

TULANE – *7 / 6
Team Theme – WAVE RUNNER
An anticipated crash by the Waves occurred on call last season when the loss of star RB Matt Forte to the NFL proved too much for Tulane to overcome. Not only did the ground game take a hit, rushing for 83 YPG less than it did in 2007, so did the point production. An 0-8 conclusion to the season left Tulane with only two wins for the season. As a result, head coach Bob Toledo finds himself on the hot seat, where the view is never good. The good news is RB Andre Anderson returns. Anderson rushed for 864 yards and seven TD’s in the first seven games of the season before suffering a season-ending injury in the second quarter against Rice last year. If the defense does its job, Toledo could keep his.
PLAY ON: vs. Army (10/3)

TULSA – 6 / 8
Team Theme – YARDMASTER
Mark it down. It’s only a matter of time before Golden Hurricane head coach Todd Graham takes over a major program. In two seasons with Tulsa, his teams have averaged 553.5 YPG, while scoring 44 PPG. It’s why Graham owns 21 wins. Another reason was his call to attention on the defensive front in 2008. That’s where his team improved 74 YPG, thus giving the offense more touches. It’s also a contributing reason why Tulsa scored a mind-boggling 45 times with less than two minutes remaining in games last year. We love the fact that eight starters from last year’s stop-troops are back. The biggest negative comes in having to break in a new starting QB (Jacob Bower) for a third straight season. Then again, it didn’t phase Graham in the least last year, did it? Let the bidding begin as the Tulsa Train tolls on.
PLAY ON: vs. East Carolina (11/5) - *KEY

[SoonerBS]

Non-Conference Plays

June 25, 2009
By Judd Hall
VegasInsider.com


I don’t need to tell you how important scheduling is for a team to win a national championship in college football. Our good friend Brian Edwards has already explained the importance of loading up your early slate with quality matchups.

The out-of-conference games that we’re seeing early this year will go a long way towards gaining some brownie points with the pollsters. Ohio State is doing its due diligence by taking on the Midshipmen and Trojans to open its campaign. Georgia is another club that is going for broke right out of the gate by opening its season in Stillwater against the Cowboys.

For every team going out of its way to schedule tougher competition to curry favor with the voters and computers, you’ll have some fill up on cupcakes. The Nittany Lions are in that group with fixtures against doormats Akron (5-7), Syracuse (3-9) and Temple (5-7) at Beaver Stadium.

You’ll even see a couple of Football Championship Subdivision sides come up to face the upper division. But don’t expect to see another upset like we had with Appalachian State beating the Wolverines in Ann Arbor back in 2007.

The majority of programs go in knowing that they want to play a decent non-conference schedule, but nothing too strenuous. So they’ll go out and set a match up with cellar dwellers from the other BCS Conferences.

Les Miles has chosen that route to open up Louisiana State’s season when they head west to Seattle for a clash with the Huskies on Sept. 5. It’s not like we can argue with that move really. Sure you’re traveling well outside of your fan base, but it’s Washington.

The Huskies have been one of the worst programs in the nation, posting an abysmal 0-12 mark last year and has won nine games since 2006. They ranked near dead last in total offense (263.17 YPG), total defense (451.75 YPG), scoring (13.25 PPG) and scoring defense (38.58 PPG) in 2008.

You can’t help but think that Washington is overmatched in this game. LSU might be coming off of a disappointing 8-5, but they have a lot of talent coming back. Jordan Jefferson looked good in his two starts at the end of last season (36 of 73 on pass attempts, 419 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception) and is No. 1 on the depth chart in 2009. Jefferson will have Brandon LaFell (829 receiving yards, 8 TD) back as his No. 1 receiver.

The Bayou Bengals will no doubt get back to a strong defense this year with six starters coming back for new defensive coordinator John Chavis. This is a unit that allowed 25 points per game last season. Not a bad number, but a down effort when you realize that they gave up just 16 PPG in each of the previous three campaigns.

The Las Vegas Hilton’s Jay Kornegay has put LSU as a 14-point road “chalk” for this season opener. Not a shock there really and bettors would certainly be just in back them in this spot. Yet there is a glimmer of hope for people wanting to play the underdog.

Washington is out from under the thumb of Ty Willingham and ushering in the Steve Sarkisian era. Sarkisian has been with Southern California for the last four years, running its offense in 2007 and 2008. Granted he had some of the best talent in the nation to run his pro-style attack, but “Sark” certainly has the know how to make the most of Huskie gunslinger Jake Locker’s ability.

The Huskies also have former Trojan DC Nick Holt handling their defense. He’s been very happy with what he has seen in spring training from his crew, which returns nine starters. While this is a unit that allowed the most points in school history in ’08, there will be a marked improvement on defense.

What that coaching duo does bring is confidence in facing upper-tier clubs from other BCS conferences. Southern Cal was 10-0 straight up, 9-1 against the spread when the played against BCS conference clubs in the regular season since 2005. While it is a pipe dream to think that Washington will pull off a big upset, they do have a reasonable chance of losing by less than double-digits.

Another strategy you see is a pair of middle-of-the-pack clubs from BCS conferences square off. It’s a great way to put a quality win on your schedule and it isn’t too bad setback should you wind up losing. That’s what Minnesota and California will be doing in Minneapolis on Sept. 19.

The Golden Bears will have already played against Maryland (Sept. 5) and Eastern Washington (Sept. 12) before heading out to the Twin Cities for their road battle of the season.

Jeff Tedford’s crew will no doubt feel confident heading into this contest with an offense that showcases a top running back like Jahvid Best in its backfield. Best was third in the nation in rushing last year with 1,580 yards on the ground to go along with 15 touchdowns.

What could prove to be an issue for Best is that Cal will be replacing first round NFL draft pick Alex Mack at center. Mack is just one of the three departures from an offensive line that let running backs average 5.6 yards per carry. Look for a healthy dose of the ground game as there are a lot of questions surrounding the ability of Kevin Riley (1,360 yards, 14 TD, 6 INT), who had issues with consistency during his sophomore year.

Luckily for the Bears, they’ll have one of the best secondary units in the country. Syd-Quan Thompson, Brett Johnson and Darian Hagan come back after ranking third in the nation with 24 total interceptions.

Cal will need its secondary to come through against a spry Golden Gopher offense. Minnesota is welcoming back one of the more effective quarterback-wide receiver tandems in Adam Weber (2,761 passing yards, 15 TD) and Eric Decker (1,074 receiving yards, 7 TD). The Gophers will also be returning their entire offensive line, which averages just over 319 pounds per lineman.

Last year, Minnesota improved its scoring defense by allowing 23.3 PPG…a marked improvement from the 36.7 PPG they gave up in 2007. The problem this year for the Golden Gophers is replacing their third defensive coordinator in as many years after Ted Roof took the DC job in Auburn. Kevin Cosgrove and Ronnie Lee will share the duties this season with a unit that is returning seven starters.

Kornegay figures that Cal will be a seven-point road “chalk” in the Gophers’ new digs, TCF Bank Stadium.

This is a weird spot for us to back the Golden Bears given their recent history of traveling out east. The Bears traveled to Tennessee and Maryland over the last two seasons as favorites. And they walked away from both games a loser. In fact, California is 2-2 SU in its last four non-conference road contests in September, but is 0-4 ATS.

[Cheme82]

LSU will be in the top 5 next year contending for a NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

LSU won't finish in the top 10 and will probably not make a BCS bowl. They have to go to Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. And they also host Florida. They have top-10 talent but the SEC schedule will make sure they are not in contention come late November.

[SoonerBS]

cheme, I agree that LSU has a tough SEC schedule, but as far as I'm concerned there is no such thing as an EASY schedule in the SEC. Even though they have Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi on the road, they also have Florida and Auburn at home.

I'm getting ready to put out my thoughts and "play-on" games for the SEC, so I'm interested in your statements. Whenever you look at LSU, the roster is loaded with raw talent from highly recruited national athletes. Last year's problems stemmed from some unusual poor defensive play, but mostly from really bad QB play.

Word I am hearing, mainly from Spring practices, is that the new DC, John Chavis has really lit a fire under the defense's asses. How important is that with defenses with raw talent? Just look what Wil Muschamp did with Texas last year and you'll get your answer. I think the defense will be much improved this year.

Offensively, Jordan Jefferson is going to be the man. I'm sure he is going to suffer a few growing pains, but he should improve as the season goes along. He did well in the Spring, and if he works hard this Summer, he should be ready to go game 1. It looks like he will be playing behind a solid o-line, so he should be fine. Their WR corps will be new, but they are #1 and #2 recruits in the nation and should have the talent it takes to do well.

I think LSU is going to be a lot better and certainly think that we can win some money on them ATS this year.

[taurus]

Ok, my friend, there are only so many hours in the day. Which do I read ? --- all this great stuff or Phil Steele cover to cover?
Seriously, a lot of great stuff here and your efforts are most appreciated.