[r2d2]

So what is to keep me from just pounding this wisco side for 5 units right now? I honestly can't think of one thing, except maybe that purdue is the home team. Still though, Wisco's only loss was to michigan. Who exactly has purdue played and beat? They lost their two big games to iowa and notre dame. they barelly got by miami of ohio and squeaked one out agaisnt minnesota, which the badgers just DESTROYED on saturday. that game was even't fair for the golden gophers. I don't even think this one is close, i think wisco rolls by 21 pts. and purdue is exposed as a pretender, not a contender. Thoughts???

[goldengoat]

purdue is gonna throw

wisc has pretty good pass D

wisc is gonna run

purdue's run D is not too great

stocco don't turn it over as much as painter

wisc looks good to me

[Doc JS]

r2d2,

I agree with you. It's not a trap game. Wisconsin has Illinois at home next week. So, they shouldn't be looking past Purdue.

Here are the conference game only stats so far this year for Wisconsin and Purdue: The number in front is the Big Ten rank in that particular catigory.

SCORING OFFENSE G TD XP 2XP DXP FG Saf Pts Avg
--------------------------------------------------------------
1. Wisconsin........... 4 20 19 0 0 5 0 154 38.5
6. Purdue.............. 3 9 9 0 0 4 0 75 25.0

SCORING DEFENSE G TD XP 2XP DXP FG Saf Pts Avg
--------------------------------------------------------------
3. Wisconsin........... 4 7 6 0 1 5 0 65 16.2
7. Purdue.............. 3 10 9 0 0 3 0 78 26.0

PASS OFFENSE G Att Cmp Int Pct. Yds Avg TD Yds/G
------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Purdue.............. 3 127 77 4 60.6 945 7.4 5 315.0
3. Wisconsin........... 4 106 68 2 64.2 979 9.2 9 244.8

PASS DEFENSE G Att Cmp Int Pct. Yds Avg TD Yds/G
------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Wisconsin........... 4 107 54 5 50.5 512 4.8 2 128.0
4. Purdue.............. 3 73 47 2 64.4 563 7.7 4 187.7

RUSHING OFFENSE G Att Yds Avg TD Yds/G
--------------------------------------------------------
2. Wisconsin........... 4 165 736 4.5 9 184.0
7. Purdue.............. 3 96 442 4.6 4 147.3

RUSHING DEFENSE G Rushes Yards Avg. TD Yds/G
----------------------------------------------------------
4. Wisconsin........... 4 129 506 3.9 4 126.5
11.Purdue.............. 3 127 648 5.1 5 216.0

TOTAL OFFENSE G Rush Pass Plays Yards Avg/P TD Yds/G
----------------------------------------------------------------
1. Purdue.............. 3 442 945 223 1387 6.2 9 462.3
2. Wisconsin........... 4 736 979 271 1715 6.3 18 428.8

TOTAL DEFENSE G Rush Pass Plys Yards Avg TD Yds/G
---------------------------------------------------------------
1. Wisconsin........... 4 506 512 236 1018 4.3 6 254.5
8. Purdue.............. 3 648 563 200 1211 6.1 9 403.7

This game comes down to Purdue's passing game (best in the Big Ten) vs. Wisconsin's pass defense (best in the Big Ten) and Wisconsin's rushing offense (second in the Big Ten) vs. Purdue's rush defense (11th in the Big Ten).

I think Wisconsin just runs the ball down their throat. And I don't think Purdue will be able to stop it. Purdue's only hope, IMHO, is to keep the Wisconsin offense off the field by controlling the game with their passing game.

Thoughts?

Doc JS

[hawk 5]

Iowa stopped Painter and scored at will. Wisc will do the same.

[STEELCURTAIN3288]

I really like Wisc and I am going to bet them giving the 6 for 4 units

[pags11]

Wisconsin is rolling, I don't really want to get in there way here...if you want to play Purdue, I think this thing may see 7 by kickoff...

[Razz]

Originally Posted by Doc JS

Purdue's only hope, IMHO, is to keep the Wisconsin offense off the field by controlling the game with their passing game.

That's pretty much the long and short of it. I don't have much respect for either team - there is going to be a spot in the near future where I have a large play against Wisconsin, now that everyone seems to be drinking the Badger Kool-Aid - but Purdue's defense is so bad that Hill could easily get 200 yards here.
Here's the problem as I see it. Even if you believe Wisconsin is legit, and two touchdowns better than Purdue, the home field and coaching advantage the Boilermakers have almost offset that 8 points.

[darkghost]

Originally Posted by pags11

Wisconsin is rolling, I don't really want to get in there way here...if you want to play Purdue, I think this thing may see 7 by kickoff...

6 looks tempting but if I see a 7 I'll be on Purdue.

[BuddyBear]

Wisconsin is without a shadow of a doubt a huge sucker bet this week fellows.....

My line has them favered by less than 3 and many of the power rating values show Purude with a huge advantage. Ask yourself these few questions if you are unsure about who to play:

1) Who has Wisconsin beat this year that would make them an elite team or at least a near TD favorite on the road?

2) How good is Purdue as a home dog under Joe Tiller?

3) What side is the public on? Are they piling up on one side?

4) Is this a revenge game?

5) Which team has the coaching advantage?

6) What happened to Wisconsin in 2004 when they travelled to East Lansing in a similar situation where they had a great defense and then faced a very good offense? What happened there?

I really think Purdue wins this game outright....

[goldengoat]

Originally Posted by BuddyBear

Wisconsin is without a shadow of a doubt a huge sucker bet this week fellows.....

My line has them favered by less than 3 and many of the power rating values show Purude with a huge advantage. Ask yourself these few questions if you are unsure about who to play:

1) Who has Wisconsin beat this year that would make them an elite team or at least a near TD favorite on the road?

2) How good is Purdue as a home dog under Joe Tiller?

3) What side is the public on? Are they piling up on one side?

4) Is this a revenge game?

5) Which team has the coaching advantage?

6) What happened to Wisconsin in 2004 when they travelled to East Lansing in a similar situation where they had a great defense and then faced a very good offense? What happened there?

I really think Purdue wins this game outright....

purdue at home is the only thing from those that deserves significance IMO

[goldengoat]

the prick used this game as his best bet

grrrrrrr

i bet he read this thread

[pags11]

prick used wisky?...gotta go over there and look...

[durito]

I think the line here should be atleast 10, but with everyone on Wisconsin, I just can't do it. Especially with Prick on it.

[pags11]

am thinking maybe Purdue will be Dr. Bob's GOY?...

[BuddyBear]

hmmm....public is pounding Wisconsin and the line is not budging fellows. Someone knows something out there about this game.....

Good luck Wisconsin backers....

[bigboydan]

Looks like we both know something double B, because I like the Boilermakers in this game myself.

[nyplayer33]

line is not moving, i thought it is 7 at some places. How can this have anything to do with info or anything the line moves based on betting action and to balance the action as close to even on both sides. What are u saying sharpton

[nosuzieno]

From the hoosier state here and still paying back my Big Ten college loans....whisky looks too good to play them, if that makes any sense...When our teams show up, albeit infrequently, it is at home. Ask Iowa...

[BuddyBear]

I am on Purdue myself BBD....Wisconsin seems like one of the biggest sucker bets I've seen in a while. Sometimes the line not moving is as important as a line moving...if you get what I mean. Lot of people are going to be scratching their heads tonight over this game....

[BuddyBear]

Originally Posted by nyplayer33

line is not moving, i thought it is 7 at some places. How can this have anything to do with info or anything the line moves based on betting action and to balance the action as close to even on both sides. What are u saying sharpton

All I am saying that when a book is taking 90% action on one side (i.e. Wisconsin) as reported by sportsinsights then the logical thing would be to move the line up so you can get some balanced action. This is one of the heaviest bet games of the week volume wise...it's in the top 3. So you have a game that is being pounded by the public, Vegas and the offshorers are taking a huge handle on this game which means they stand to get ****** if Wisc covers this game....yet the line is not moving anywhere....

Basically, at this point, if you are a sharp bettor a little light should go off in your head that asks a simple question: "why is this line not moving the way it is suppose to be?"

Poker players can relate to this analogy. There comes a point in a time where you have a very strong hand, a hand you think can win almost all of the time but sometimes you start to realize something is up when others at the table are not folding their hand. What I am trying to say is that sometimes you have to fold even with a strong hand and recognize that something is totally amiss.

[McBa1n]

Great point, Buddy... excellent anaology.
My gut says Purdue covers and probably outright wins the game. I've seen the Badgers this year quite a bit, and I really don't like them a whole lot in a big game against a solid opponent with a good coach and on the road to boot.

I thought the line would be more favorable if I waited and it sure as hell didn't... They've been hot against pedestrian talent, mostly.

[bigboydan]

McBa1n, I wish I had the balls to take that ML myself. but, I gotta take the points in this one.

[moses millsap]

Wisconsin looks too strong for Purdue today.

[bigboydan]

It's not over just yet owned. However, Joe Tiller has made some stupid offensive play calling i've noticed.

[moses millsap]

They can't stop Wiscy, I'd say it's pretty close to done.

[ivyconniver]

Purdue is soft soft soft on D. They should be winning this game right now, not down by 2 td's

[moses millsap]

Painter is a bad actor; he should try to vary when to play his worst instead of just crucial 3rd downs.

[goldengoat]

Originally Posted by BuddyBear

I am on Purdue myself BBD....Wisconsin seems like one of the biggest sucker bets I've seen in a while. Sometimes the line not moving is as important as a line moving...if you get what I mean. Lot of people are going to be scratching their heads tonight over this game....

how is this a sucker bet?

what is the criteria for being a sucker bet?

[moses millsap]

It was a sucker bet for Purdue backers, giving the home dog a TD. Complete inability to stop the run, Wiscy controlled tempo and just put a chokehold on Purdue. Badgers have been impressive the past several weeks though.

[ivyconniver]

Originally Posted by OWNED

It was a sucker bet for Purdue backers, giving the home dog a TD.

It sure is a lot easier to say now that the game is over. Even though Wisc covered, Purdue blew multiple chances to score. They were the "right" play even though they didn't come through this game.

[dave11486]

I think it only constitutes as the right play when you are close to covering, but don't. 24-3 is not close. Sorry ivy i think you lost this battle.

[Illusion]

Purdue didn't even bother showing up today. I was on the wrong side with this one.

[BuddyBear]

trust me, Purdue was the "right" side of this game regardless if they covered or not. If anyone saw the game, you would have known that they really should have put up more points...

Regardless, if you got WISC congrats....but if you bet games like these all the time you'll find yourself on the losing side more times than not. Lot of the sharps were on Purdue today....most sharps I talked with either played Purdue or passed on this game.

[goldengoat]

what a load of crap

the right team won
wisc ran all over them just as expected and held purdue's passing down just as expected


TOTAL NET YARDS Wis 426 Pur 274
Total Plays Wis 70 Pur 66
Average Gain Per Play Wis 6.1 Pur 4.2
NET YARDS RUSHING Wis 242 Pur 99
Rushes Wis 45 Pur 24
Average Per Rush Wis 5.4 Pur 4.1
NET YARDS PASSING Wis 184 Pur 175

[moses millsap]

I was on Purdue and I was clearly on the wrong side of this one. Sure, Purdue could've scored more, but it wasn't like they choked from inside the 5 yard line. Wiscy stopped them when they needed in the crucial drives (when Purdue was going against the wind) with a 4th down stop and a missed FG for Tiller's squad. On the other side, everytime there was a huge spot for Purdue's defense to step up, they didn't. Outmatched and didn't deserve to be anywhere near the 7 number. I can admit when I read a game completely wrong and I feel I did here.