[pags11]

well gentlemen, it's been a pretty crazy year so far, and I'm averaging about 1 1/2 bad beats per week...on a descent year, I average about one per two weeks, a great year, one per three...a lot of this is that the damn football isn't round and it bounces funny...but you know what, I'm not going anywhere and am in it for the long haul...so here they are:

Rice +4

Caught this earlier in the week, went up to 6, then back down to 4.5. Have got to watch Rice play quite a bit this year and have been pretty impressed (even though they're 1-5). Two games ago they got their QB Clemment back and this guy can throw it. WR Dillard could start for anyone in the country and has 8 TD's already. Also like the RB Smith, he's a good back. Defensively, I'd say they're about average, but I like their coaching and I like the home field here. I think UAB's a good, but not great conference USA team so I'm rolling the dice here with Rice...

Wake Forest +4.5

I finally got to see these guys play last week, and even in defeat I was extremely impressed with them. They are possibly the best tackling football team I've seen all year, which is extremely important in my eyes. Also think that QB Skinner is a better all-around QB than Mauk (the QB that was injured early in the year). I'll take Jim Grobe over Chuck Amato any day of the week. I don't think NCSU is as bad as they played at the beginning of the year, nor do I think they are quite as good as they've played the last two games. Don't see a whole lot of points being scored in this one, so I'll take my chances with Wake here.

Tulane +14

Tulane's been playing a lot better of late, as QB Ricard has finally showed the form he showed late in the 2004 season. He's a big time player on a smaller team so he doesn't get a lot of pub, but he can singlehandedly carry them in this game. Mike Price is a great coach, but Tulane's Scelfo is pretty good himself. UTEP stops no one, and QB Palmer has zero running game to work with. Just see this one as being a shootout so I'll take the two TD's and Tulane here.

South Florida -2.5

South Florida seems to be another team flying under the radar right now. They went to a bowl game last year and should be headed to one again this year, while UNC is heading in the opposite direction. Jim Levitt may be a little crazy, but he's still better in John Bunting (who should be fired at the end of the year). Bad QB play and a poor offensive line spell trouble for UNC here as South Florida has some speed on defense. USF should be bolstered with the return of their starting RB Ponton, as well as getting back a WR and LB that started for last years team (all served six game suspensions). Didn't like it as much at five, but under a FG it peaked my interest so I'll take it.

Houston +2

This team is a tough one to figure out, but I've been following this QB Kolb for 4 years now and the guy's damn impressive. 17 TD's, 1 INT on the season with a 70% completion percentage. He's got a lot of seniors at the skill positions and they've got some speed in defense. Hopefully Art Briles will stay out of Kolb's way and just let him operate. Rarely do I choose a Brile's coached team over a Jeff Bower coached team, but bottom line here is that it's about the Jimmy's and the Joe's, not the X's and the O's. Other than the tailback Fletcher, USM just hasn't shown me a whole lot of playmaking ability, plus they've had some shaky QB play. I'm taking my chances that they won't be able to trade scores with Houston here.

Vandy +14

This is another team that I've just watched the first month or so of the season and I think they're pretty good. They're well coached, have balance on offense and play pretty good defense. QB Nickson has a thigh bruise but is expected to play (was 11-13 last week before leaving the game vs. Ole Miss). Georgia comes into this game reeling a bit. They've had trouble with the QB position, as well as RB. Their WR's drop a lot of balls and their All-American kicker's out (although the back-up seems to be alright). Just think this could end up a defensive battle so I'll take Vandy here.

Missouri -2

People still haven't bought into Missouri, but I think after this week they may. I may be crazy to lay road chalk at Texas A&M, but I still can't say I'm truly impressed with Coach Fran and crew. I've seen the guy go for it on fourth down with 2 mins. left up by 7 inside his own 30 vs. Army, and he went for it on 4th and 24 with 5 mins. left and two timeouts at midfield last week vs. Kansas. This guy makes how much a year and his record at A&M is one game over .500? RB Lane is a horse and the guy definitely scares me and QB McGee has played well at times this year. I do think RB Courtney Lewis being banged up will come into play here as Missouri is a very balanced football team. I'm as impressed with QB Chase Daniel as I've been with any QB I've seen play this season. He's mobile, has good arm-strength and makes excellent decisions with the football. He's got RB Tony Temple to take the heat off of him (plus a good back-up in Marcus Woods). Missouri also has two of the best tight ends in the country in Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman (they catch like WR's and are built like power forwards). William Franklin (16.7 ypr, 4 TD) and Brad Ekwerekwu (funny name, but great hands). Defensively I read criticsm about the size of the DL or the ammount of yardage these guys give up. They've got to be doing something right to be the number 10 defense in the country. They create turnovers and stiffin up inside the read zone, as they haven't given up a whole lot of TD's. Maybe they haven't played a ton of good teams (although neither has A&M), but that doesn't mean they aren't a great team.

GLTA

pags11

[kalind]

[pags11]

thanks kalind...GL to you this weekend as well...

[hawk 5]

Great job pags and good luck especially on Big MO

[Philavanh]

Haven't look at the picks yet, but looking forward to it!!!!!!! Been waiting for Pags Plays all week can't wait to see what u got, like always good stuff u write, I'll be back on to comment again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bigboydan]

I'm still one of those non-believers on Missouri pags. So with that being said you know i'm liking A&M in that game.

BOL with your plays bro

[onlooker]

I like UTEP and A&M here, sorry to hear your on the other side of them. Im just not sure I will lay the 12 points on UTEP. But I do like the +1.5/2 with A&M.

Good luck on your plays Pags.

[Pioneer]

Pags I like your plays man.

Although, I worry about your ACC away squads.

I have been riding ACC home dogs all season.

[imgv94]

I have Rice +6 this week.. I think Rice might even win this game..

[pags11]

thanks guys, best of luck to all of you the rest of the weekend...

[Razz]

Best of luck bud, you've got mail.

[pags11]

Razz,

thanks for all of your input this week...BOL to you as well...

[Philavanh]

Nice write up Pags...........nice picks as well, I think u should do very well this week, I wouldn't be surprise if all ur picks hit this week, I'm riding with u on them............LETS MAKE SOME $$$$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!!!!!!

[Rezzy]

With you on Missouri

[Philavanh]

So far so good, looks like all the noon games was a success!!!!!!!!!

[primo_skillz]

3-0 so far PAGS!!! keep up the good work!

[pags11]

4-2-1 to finish the day...what a wild day...thanks guys...

[Patrick McIrish]

Solid day Pags, good job. I'd take a 4-2 Saturday every day the rest of my life, LOL.

[HAPPY BOY]

Back in the green Pags my man, went 3-1 today myself ( u know it's amazing that that one loss swings the bank roll though you notice that) I mean i went 3-1 and obviously I'm up but still that one fvcking loss turns a great day to a good day. Oh well just rambling with my scatter brain thoughts. Nice Job Pags. GL today my man.

[primo_skillz]

cant wait for you to post next weekends selections! great job

[Noles2006]

Congrats, pags. You're the man!

[Checkerboard]

" . . . a lot of it is that damned football isn't round and it bounces funny . . ."

'Flubber' was the name of the movie pags11!

[pags11]

checkerborad,

never have seen the movie, but that's funny...lol...

Patrick,

thanks very much...congrats on your day as well...

primo,

I'll have them for you bud...thanks...

Noles,

thanks...I do appreciate it...

[Philavanh]

Congrats Pags11 looks like u came ahead this week. Good Job!!!!!!!

[pags11]

thanks phil...I'll make sure to post my write-up on Thurs. evening...

[Philavanh]

I'll look forward to it, like always........

[bmac]

dito...... look forward to reading....

[imgv94]

pags

I too am looking forward to your solid plays and writeups. Pags I swear you are the one guy I except to be ahead every season because of your discipline and knowledge of the sports. Take care man.. GL always!!!

[pags11]

thanks bmac...

dude, IMGV, I really appreciate it my friend...hopefully we'll all be able to hook up on a conference call later tonight...