[SBRforum Staff]

Winning Parlay System

By: Ross Benjamin
http://www.PhoenixSports.com
Ross explains his '33% Parlay System,' and how it can be profitable in the early part of the college football season when mismatches between I-A and I-AA schools are offered.

Wagering on parlays in any sport has always been something I have highly advised against with my clients. However, there is a huge difference when it comes to a betting system and professionally handicapped selections.

I have sometimes pounded my head up against the wall trying to get the novice to comprehend the difference between the two. Simply put, a betting system is arrived at by exposing a slight vulnerability in what a bookmaker allows us to do. These systems on most occasions are created and applied by mathematical calculations with no regards to the teams involved or conditions of the game itself. Contrarily, handicapped selections are the result of factors such as weather, past performance, injuries, trends, and statistics just to name a few.

College football, especially early in the season, gives us an opportunity to exercise a successful betting system. This is what I call my 33% parlay system. It involves wagering on a pair of two team parlays in the same game.

The first parlay is playing the favorite and over the total, while the other is to play on the underdog and under the total. Now to qualify the games we use a simple mathematical calculation. The point-spread must be 33% or greater than that of the total in a particular game, and then we would have a qualifier.

An example would have been last Saturday’s Vanderbilt at Michigan game. Michigan was -27 and the total 46.5. The point-spread of -27 was 58.1% of the total. This game far exceeded the 33%. The result was Michigan winning 27-17 and produced a winning parlay of Vanderbilt and the under. If you played 100.00 on each parlay, you would have lost 100.00 on Michigan and the over. You would have won 260.00 on Vanderbilt and the under. The net would be 160.00.

In order to accomplish this, you will need to find a sportsbook that has action on correlated parlays, and those are few.

You will also find as the season enters conference play the opportunities to apply this system will be greatly reduced. Early in the season you have more games involving schools from BCS conferences versus schools from non-BCS conferences. This is much due to the willingness of the non-BCS teams to play these games on the road solely for the purpose of collecting a huge revenue guarantee. These contests are more apt to produce the calculation that we are looking for.

You will also find that these types of situations rarely occur during the course of an NFL season. The simple reason is there are significantly less teams in the NFL and with the advent of the salary cap it has created more parity. In week one of the college football season we had 14 games that qualified under this betting system. We made a profit on 10 of the 14 games. Based on playing 100.00 per parlay and a 2.60 return you would have made a profit of 800.00.

The Winners: (+1600.00)
Vanderbilt +27 and under 46½ / Michigan 27 Vanderbilt 7
Penn St. -17½ and over 40½ / Penn St. 34 Akron 16
Idaho +29 and under 57 / Michigan St. 27 Idaho 17
West Virginia -21½ and over 45½ / West Virginia 42 Marshall 10
Nebraska -24½ and over 45½ / Nebraska 49 Louisiana Tech 10
UAB +24 and under 41½ / Oklahoma 24 UAB 17
Clemson -25½ and over 43 / Clemson 54 Florida Atlantic 6
Texas -40½ and over 53 / Texas 56 North Texas 7
LSU -30 and over 47 / LSU 45 Louisiana Lafayette 3
Louisville -22½ and over 59 / Louisville 59 Kentucky 28

The Losers: (-800.00)
Ohio State 35 Northern Illinois 12 (17½/49)
Washington 35 San Jose 29 (21/47)
Florida 34 Southern Miss 7 (20/46½)
Texas Tech 35 SMU 3 (24½/52½)

[ntgarrett]

Obviously this system only considers 2 of the possible 4 parlays that can be made on a game. Does anyone have an idea on what % of games in the past (that would have qualified under this system) ended up either being the favorite/over or the dog/under? Last week 71% of the games that qualified had one of these parlays but over the last few years I wonder what the % would be? Would it trend to 50% since only 2 out of 4 possible parlays are being used? Just curious.

[darkghost]

The fundamentals of this system are sound. It's just what's the magic number you need to make this play profitable? Ross claims it's 33% or greater to make it profitable. I doubt the number's this low. I too would like the data on this. Maybe Ganch has an idea.

Another factor to consider is when the underdog is at home. You'd probably need an even higher % since teams at home tend to score more than on the road.

[rezster]

Who are some of the online sportsbooks that accept correlated parlays? Any reputable ones?

[ntgarrett]

Darkghost....you asked the majic question....is 33% the correct number? There are a number of games this week that would fit under this system and would also be in the 50%+ range:

C Michigan/Michigan
Duke/Wake Forest
Auburn/Mississippi St
Buffalo/Bowling Green
Utah St/Arkansas
Fla Atlantic/Kansas St
Middle Tenn St/Maryland
E Michigan/Michigan St

Mississippi St is the only home dog of the bunch. It would be interesting to see if 50% is any better or worse than 33%.

My other thought is how will the new time rules affect this system? They say that there will be 10 to 12 less plays per game because the clock starts sooner on plays and this has to affect the total....and do the book makers have this figured in correctly yet or not? It's an interesting and easy system to use but it would be helpful to get more information on any trends or past performance using this system.

[sportsfreek2184]

It would be interesting to find out how the bookmakers have adjusted totals for the new rules

[ntgarrett]

I have been able to make one of these plays at Linewiz.com....let's see how this goes:

Auburn -20 and over 39
Miss +20 and under 39

Wasn't sure if I could do both bets so I only put $10 on each play just for fun....most of the other games I wanted to play using this system don't have posted totals yet...but I was also only playing teams that had sides that were 50% ot total....there are a few games between 33% and 50% that could be played but I haven't decided if I will play any of those.

[freeneasy]

i bought this system from a seller named frank belenger and he included a complete workout for the 2004 or 2005 season. it checked out.
i checked with a number of the more popular books and they are fully aware of this system and the type of parlay bet it calls for and guess what? they wont take this parlay. you cant get it on the phone and you cant get it online. their computers are programmed to reject it when its punched in. i have 3 offshore accounts and when i called to let them know that i plan to take my money out and put it with a book that will take this bet they said ok but your not going to find a safe and reputable book that will take this bet and you know what they were right cause i called around to a number of other books and they said nope, sorry, we dont take that parlay when 33% of the total is higher then the side.
ntgarrett mentions he found a book that takes this bet by the name of linewiz. linewiz? who is linewiz? has anybody ever heard of these guys? no offense ntgarrett but just off the top of my head i think i'd be very careful with this book. could be linewiz got nojizz
so ok ross since your the one who posted this system and praising its merits then obviously you wouldnt put something up here for everyone to sink thier teeth into knowing that nobody or next to nobdy wants to take this bet thereby rendering this a wothless system, tell me who is it ross, what is the name of the offshore book that takes your action on this parlay bet?
i mean you do bet this system right? and since i havent been able to find a reputable book who takes this bet, i'd really like to know the name of the book that you are betting this parley with

[ntgarrett]

freeneasy.....linewiz.com will take the bet and I have copied and pasted my results...which show I lost both ways....they have something worked out with a local guy that I go through so maybe that's why I can get these type of parlays. I don't have to worry about getting paid cause I get payment local...just make the bets online...don't know much about linewiz other than I use them to place my bets...

Internet/-1 Ticket
Sep-9 12:30:00 PM
Sep-9 12:30:00 PM
CFB
CFB PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
[119] AUBURN -20-110
[119] AUBURN o39-110 10/26 -10 LOSE
WIN
LOSE Sep-9 10:37:08 AM

Internet/-1 Ticket #
Sep-9 12:30:00 PM
Sep-9 12:30:00 PM
CFB
CFB PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
[120] MISSISSIPPI ST +20-110
[120] MISSISSIPPI ST u39-110 10/26 -10 LOSE
LOSE
WIN Sep-9 10:38:06 AM

[freeneasy]

i never heard of linewiz. who are they? how long have they been in biz? who owns and runs their show? how vulnerable to and protected from shutdown are they?, espeacially when they have your money? exm. mvp sportsbook took over $1500 dollars of mine when they were recently shut down. can you find any legitimate outside feedback on them? iow dont end up getting screwed just because you found a book that is willing to take this kind of parlay action.

[pwdump]

I definetely see the possibilities here, but I don't know of any reputable books that take these parlays. Anybody have any luck locating one?

[ntgarrett]

freeneasy....can't answer any of your questions well enough for you, as I am in a different situation than you. This is the second year I have used them through my local source but since I don't give them any money and they don't give me any.....well, not much for me to worry about. I just put their name out for anyone wanting to know of a site that would take this type of bet. Sorry I can't be of more help.

[Ganchrow]

The fundamentals of this system are sound.

Yes indeed. All else being equal, the higher the correlation between legs of parlay bets, the more frequently one would expect that parlay to win. And of course the correlation between overs and point spread favorites, and unders and point spread dogs certainly does exist in football (and basketball, and hockey, and baseball, and soccer, and tetherball and [pick a sport]).

It's just what's the magic number you need to make this play profitable? Ross claims it's 33% or greater to make it profitable. I doubt the number's this low. I too would like the data on this. Maybe Ganch has an idea.

Because I don't bet football I don't actually have ready access to this data. At some point maybe I'll try to pull it from Covers or BigGuy. Nevertheless, my suspicion is that the 33% figure would be sufficiently high to exceed the magic 27.78% likelihood of a specified dual outcome occurring necessary to break even on a 13/5 two-team parlay.

Another factor to consider is when the underdog is at home. You'd probably need an even higher % since teams at home tend to score more than on the road.

Not so much really. Such a consideration would be implicit in the line itself, and should be unrelated to the correlation (except insofar as those few if any books which did allow correlated parlays chose to shade their lines away from fair value and towards lowering the point spread or raising the total -- but obviously all this would accomplish would be lowering the EV of one of the two correlated parlay to the benefit of other.)

But just as most posters here have already pointed out, the real challenge is finding a book that allows you to do this. This concept isn't particularly smart or clever, it's just some very basic extrapolations from first principles without any regard to actual handicapping. But that doesn't mean that value bettors can't use this concept to their advantage. If a value bettor finds himself for some exogenous handicapping reasoning happening to like an ATS favorite (/dog) and the over (/under) on the same game, then he should by all means seek to parlay the two, even when the spread is considerably below the 33% of the total figure. If he truly has an identfied advantage on both of the two correllated bets independently, then that advantage will only serve to be magnified through use of a parlay.

And that of course is a good thing.

[ntgarrett]

In week two I found 17 games that fit this system and based on the lines I could have gotten, I would have had 10 wins, 6 losses and 1 push....or a profit of $400 based on $100 per parlay. On the 8 games that had a 50%+ range, I would have had 5 einds and 3 losses or a profit of $200 on $100 per parlay. Still would be interested to see if anyone has any stats on the last 2 or 3 years to see what would happen.
This week I see 14 games that would qualify for this system.

[Justin7]

These types of correlated parlays are a monster in the long-term.

The closer the spread is to the total, the stronger the play. Consider the line : Texas -45, and a total of 45. In this example, the underdog bet wins 100% of the time if the total goes under - a correlation of 1.0.

In NCAAF, look at the ratio of the spread to the total. The author suggested playing any game where that ratio was 3 or less (so +17 versus a total of 51 would qualify, but not 17 vs. 52).

If you play games where the ratio is 2.5 or less, the dog/under hits about 36% of the time. That has a monster EV.

The favorites/overs are not as good, but still money: 32% of the time.

The other two selections - dog/over and fav/under combined hit only 32%. Those are sucker bets - anti-correlated.

[r2d2]

why not play one side of the parlay at one book, and the other at another? wouldn't that prevent you from running into a book that does not allow this type of bet?

[freeneasy]

they wont take either the first bet alone by itself and they wont take the second bet alone, by itself without the first bet

[BigGuy]

hey freeneasy, just noticed you said you bought a parlay system from frank belenger, was wondering if you bought any others, i personally use his unbeatable system and works very good for me, have u tried this system before? just curious thats all...

[MercJr]

why not play one side of the parlay at one book, and the other at another? wouldn't that prevent you from running into a book that does not allow this type of bet?

thegreek and betjamaica wouldnt take either parlay, fav/over or dog/under.

wsex didnt have totals for qualifying games

[rob]

I'm going to use this system using a couple of local books. Although their payout is a little less, 12/5, it still should be profitable.