[DerekMadden]

Any of you who know me, also know that I don't bet on the Hogs..

I think this week is different
this week I will be UNLOADING on them at -4

this will be the Hogs first game at home since the 14-38 route of the Defending Natl. Champs of Auburn

Arkansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home (all by 10 points or more)
Arkansas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against South Carolina

Maybe it is just a little bit of homer-itus, but I really feel like this is the week Arkansas just flat out puts the pieces together on Offense and Defense

-4? I would probably not play if it was -7 or higher, but at -4 I am confident Arkansas gets it done, especially at home

[gshock1]

I bought it down to 3

[DerekMadden]

another interesting stat..

Penalties

South Carolina - 49/371yds : Opponents - 34/289yds
Arkansas - 49/366yds : Opponents - 52/485yds

It is interesting that
SC is way more penalized than the teams they play and Ark forces more penalties than the teams they play...

[bartman]

I know its a pretty S****y thing to bet against youre own school, but Im with you on this one, Derek...... I put $400 on Ark at -4.5, line at sportsbook is now at -5.5.

ARK actually plays pretty well at home. Ark has comfortably beaten two pretty good teams, texas AnM and Auburn. Carolina has beaten one good team, GA, with Lattimore, and they really should have lost that game. Carolina has blown out only one team (with Latimore) all year, Kentucky. Also, Look at all the so-so, teams Carolina barley beat with Latimore...... ECU, navy. Yes, Carolinas Defense is good but the only good offense they have faced is GA nd Ga put up over 40 pts........ARK HAS ONLY LOST ONE GAME...TO BAMA!
If home field means "3 pts" then they are only favoring ARK BY 1.5 PTS WITH NO LATTIMORE? this makes no sense ..... take ARK AND THE UNDER!

[HoulihansTX]

I will tail here.

[BigdaddyQH]

I also took Arkansas. Arkansas is playing for a potential BCS Birth here (Sugar Bowl) if they win out and 'Bama defeats LSU. South Carolina has no chance of winning a SEC Championship game. South Carolina handled common opponent Vandy by 18 points with Lattimore. Arkansas fell asleep in the first half, but still managed to defeat Vandy by 3 at Vandy. South Carolina lost to Auburn at home. Arkansas crushed Auburn at home. Arkansas is the play.

[Sunde91]

penalties? SU trends 6 years back??

What makes this the play is Ark's 9th pass O vs. a completely untested SC pass D. SC is 3rd in pass D but played who? 1 pass O ranked 45th or higher. That was lowly ECU, who shredded them for 345. Other teams they played like Vandy, UK, Navy, Auburn are all in the bottom 20.

This is also SC's 3rd straight road game, and they're playing with a first year starter QB and a frosh RB. Ark at home Sat night will bust them up

[DerekMadden]

penalties? SU trends 6 years back??

What makes this the play is Ark's 9th pass O vs. a completely untested SC pass D. SC is 3rd in pass D but played who? 1 pass O ranked 45th or higher. That was lowly ECU, who shredded them for 345. Other teams they played like Vandy, UK, Navy, Auburn are all in the bottom 20.

This is also SC's 3rd straight road game, and they're playing with a first year starter QB and a frosh RB. Ark at home Sat night will bust them up

I figured 90% of people realized that

I was giving some what I believe to be unknown information

[paranoyd androyd]

public all over this scares me a lot like arky too

[XFranchise]

Ark has started slowin the first half past two weeks. Having to come out of a hole at half doesn't help the sports betting world giving up points. Im being bitter as ark has been my reason for being negative the past 2 weeks. South Carolina is not very good and ark being at home is always a tough team to beat. So...as I've thought the past 2 weeks, great bet. But they probably find a way to win by 3

[Retrospect]

If ark struggle this time around it's all over.. SC is way better than vandy and olemiss..
It's an easy bet but it's not..GL

[DerekMadden]

If ark struggle this time around it's all over.. SC is way better than vandy and olemiss..
It's an easy bet but it's not..GL

I know I'm going to get killed for this statement..

but Vandy's D right now in the year, is equal to that of South Carolina

[Ab34]

I know I'm going to get killed for this statement..

but Vandy's D right now in the year, is equal to that of South Carolina

I could not agree more very similar. I like the Arkansas play here as long is its getable at 4

[DerekMadden]

hop on it quick,

because it will go up REAL fast tomorrow