[wal66]

Don't expect these or some following plays to be real popular this week so really looking for some feedback.



Wednesday December 3, 2008
7:00 PM
Middle Tennessee @ UL Lafayette -4.5

Records:
Middle Tennessee 5-6 (5-6 ATS) 1-5 on the road.
UL Lafayette 5-6 (7-4 ATS) 3-1 at home.

Trends:
Middle Tennessee is 1-7 ATS in last 8 conference games.
UL Lafayette is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games overall.

Head to Head:
UL Lafayette is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS.

Common Opponents:
North Texas 13 Middle Tennessee 52
UL Lafayette 59 North Texas 30
UL Monroe 21 Middle Tennessee 24
UL Lafayette 44 UL Monroe 35
Middle Tennessee 14 Arkansas St 31
Arkansas St 23 UL Lafayette 28

Offense:
Middle Tennessee averages 19.2ppg on the road.
UL Lafayette averages 36.3ppg at home.

Defense:
Middle Tennessee allows 27.5ppg on the road.
UL Lafayette allows 26.8ppg at home.

X-FACTOR:
At first glance Middle Tennessee has been terrible on the road this season. Then you take a second look and see who they have player against while on the road. Louisville,Mississippi St and Kentucky while not considered world beaters are certainly a step up from conference play. They also have an early season impressive win at home over Maryland. So while Middle Tennessee have had a rough season they need not hang their heads because unlike the big schools who play down when going out of conference Mid Tenn steps up to take on anyone anywhere. That said though they are back in conference here playing a team they just don’t match up well with. Arkansas St has a two headed attack out of the backfield that is highly explosive. If Arkansas St is able to run the ball like they are accustom to doing they can control the clock and keep the ball away from Middle Tennessee and if that happens Arkansas St wins and covers.

Computer Program:
UL Lafayette -2.83 so at -4.5 we have no value on our side.

Play:
UL Lafayette -4.5*


Thursday December 4, 2008
7:30 PM
Louisville @ Rutgers -11.5

Records:
Louisville 5-6 (4-6 ATS) 1-2 on the road.
Rutgers 6-5 (6-4 ATS) 4-2 at home.

Trends:
Rutgers is 14-6 ATS against teams with a losing record.

Head to Head:
Teams are 2-2 SU and ATS.

Common Opponents:
West Virginia 35 Louisville 21
Rutgers 17 West Virginia 24
Louisville 7 Pittsburgh 41
Rutgers 34 Pittsburgh 54
South Florida 20 Louisville 24
Rutgers 49 South Florida 16
UConn 26 Louisville 21
UConn 10 Rutgers 12

Offense:
Louisville averages 21ppg on the road.
Rutgers averages 19.2ppg at home.

Defense:
Louisville allows 32.3ppg on the road.
Louisville allows 19.6ppg at home.

X-FACTOR:
I think both these teams feel they under-achieved this season. They both showed flashes of being on the rise and then again they both at times looked absolutely terrible. For the most part Rutgers has been the better team and certainly have the numbers on their side to back that up as fact. That said though I just have a hard time passing on the points in this game. As inconsistent and dismal as the Cardinals have been this season I think they can muster enough fight to keep this one under the number and have an outside shot at the outright win.

Computer Program:
Rutgers -12.5 so at -11.5 you have minimal value if you choose the chalk.

Play:
Louisville +11.5* (Hunch Play)


Friday December 5, 2008
8:00 PM
Buffalo vs Ball St -15

Records:
Buffalo 7-5 (7-4 ATS)
Ball St 12-0 (9-2 ATS)

Trends:
Buffalo is 9-4 ATS in last 13 conference games.
Ball St is 20-8 ATS against teams with a winning record.

Head to Head:
Ball St is 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS

Common Opponents:
Western Michigan 34 Buffalo 28
Western Michigan 22 Ball St 45
Buffalo 25 Central Michigan 27
Ball St 31 Central Michigan 24

Offense:
Buffalo averages 30.2ppg.
Ball St averages 37.7ppg.

Defense:
Buffalo allows 27.8ppg.
Ball St allows 16.7ppg.

X-FACTOR:
I have won with both these teams this season. For some strange reason I have played more games in this conference than any other. I don’t know why because this is the craziest conference to wager on of them all. By all rights Ball St should roll big in this game. I’m a nimrod though because I truly feel Buffalo has a shot in this game. No not to win the game, Ball St will win I have no doubts about that part. I do think Buffalo has a very solid quarterback and the team has a real desire to never quit and always feel they have a chance. The reason for this teams fight is all credited to Gill Turner who not only is one of the best coaches in the MAC but one of the brightest up and coming coach in all of college football. I could be the very serious minority here but I like Buffalo’s chances of keeping this game within 10 to 13 points.

Computer Program:
Ball St -12.83 so at -15 we have a small value with Buffalo.

Play:
Buffalo +15*

[guru-t]

GL wal.I'll post mine tomorrow.Still working.As of now though,I do like LALafayette-4.5

[wal66]

GL wal.I'll post mine tomorrow.Still working.As of now though,I do like LALafayette-4.5

Good thing I checked your reply cause I didn't notice my mistake of typing Arkansas St instead of UL Lafayette.

I'll have all Saturday's plays tomorrow or Wednesday.

Will keep an eye out for your plays as well.

[wal66]

Saturday December 6, 2008
12:00 PM
East Carolina @ Tulsa -13.5

Records:
East Carolina 8-4 (4-8 ATS) 3-3 on the road.
Tulsa 10-2 (7-4 ATS) 6-0 at home.

Trends:
ECU is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Tulsa is 3-7 ATS against teams with a winning record.

Head to Head:
Tulsa is 4-2 SU and ATS.

Common Opponents:
UTEP 21 ECU 53
UTEP 35 Tulsa 77
Houston 41 ECU 24
Tulsa 30 Houston 70
ECU 13 Central Florida 10
Central Florida 19 Tulsa 49
Marshall 16 ECU 19
Tulsa 38 Marshall 35

Offense:
ECU averages 22.1ppg on the road.
Tulsa averages 60.2ppg at home. (excluded Central Arkansas)

Defense:
ECU allows 22.1ppg on the road.
Tulsa allows 20.6ppg at home. (excluded Central Arkansas)

X-FACTOR:
There is no denying that Tulsa is a machine at home. They put up impressive numbers. East Carolina started the season off with a bang and then stumbled in a couple of games and were written off. The losses were due in large part to a young team getting full of themselves and also several key injuries along with Pickney being kept on the bench.
ECU isn’t the fastest team out there, they have to rely heavily on execution and turnovers and they are basically as good as Pickney plays on offense. They still have several injuries that are hurting them but a few young players have stepped up and really started playing well. Not sure if ECU can pull off the upset here but I certainly think they will manage to keep this game within the number being laid.

Computer Program:
Tulsa -5.2 so with ECU getting 13.5 we have significant value.

Play:
East Carolina +13.5*


12:00 PM
Pittsburgh @ UConn -2.5

Records:
Pitt 8-3 (5-6 ATS) 4-1 on the road.
UConn 7-4 (5-5 ATS) 4-1 at home.

Trends:
Pitt is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
UConn is 2-8 ATS against teams with a winning record.
UConn is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference games.

Head to Head:
UConn is 3-1 SU and ATS.

Common Opponents:
West Virginia 15 Pitt 19
West Virginia 35 UConn 13
Pitt 26 South Florida 21
UConn 13 South Florida 17
Louisville 7 Pitt 41
UConn 26 Louisville 21
Pitt 21 Cincinnati 28
Cincinnati 16 UConn 40

Offense:
Pitt averages 31.8ppg on the road.
UConn averages 32.3ppg at home. (excluded Hofstra)

Defense:
Pitt allows 25.4ppg on the road.
UConn allows 22.3ppg at home. (excluded Hofstra)

X-FACTOR:
Pittsburgh for the most part has played solid all season. The Panthers are a very good football team, they play hardnosed tough defense and when McCoy and that running game gets cranking it’s tough to stop. UConn is favored here for a reason. They are at home and play consistent football. I consider this a risky play but I’ll take my chance on Coach Dave winning a game that matters.

Computer Program:
UConn -1.9 so Pitt +2.5 doesn’t give us enough to consider this a value.

Play:
Pittsburgh +2.5*



1:00 PM
Boston College vs Virginia Tech pk

Records:
Boston College 9-3 (6-4 ATS)
V-Tech 8-4 (4-7 ATS)

Trends:
Boston College is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Head to Head:
V-Tech is 6-4 SU.

Common Opponents:
Maryland 21 Boston College 28
Maryland 13 V-Tech 23
Boston College 27 FSU 17
V-Tech 20 FSU 30
These two played at Boston College earlier this season and BC won 28-23.

Offense:
Boston College averages 26.7ppg.
V-Tech averages 17.9ppg.

Defense:
Boston College allows 17.6ppg.
V-Tech allows 17.9ppg.

X-FACTOR:
This game isn’t nearly as simple as I am gonna make it sound but to beat Boston College V-Tech will need to take it to the air. BC plays tough against the run but as was seen last weekend against Maryland they still make big mistakes in the secondary. Barring a sudden aerial attack from V-tech though I’ll take my chances with Boston College.

Computer Program:
Boston College -3.2 so at a pk we have decent value.

Play:
Boston College*


7:00 PM
Arkansas St @ Troy -11

Records:
Arkansas St 6-5 (3-7 ATS) 2-4 on the road.
Troy 7-4 (6-4 ATS) 4-0 at home.

Trends:
Under is 10-2 in Arkansas St last 12 games.
Troy is 17-7 in their last 24 games.

Head to Head:
Arkansas St is 3-1 SU and ATS.

Common Opponents:
UL Monroe 29 Arkansas St 37
Troy 30 UL Monroe 31
Florida Atlantic 14 Arkansas St 24
Troy 30 Florida Atlantic 17
Arkansas St 23 UL Lafayette 28
UL Lafayette 3 Troy 48

Offense:
Arkansas St averages 18ppg on the road.
Troy averages 32.6ppg at home. (excluded Alcorn St)

Defense:
Arkansas St allows 26ppg on the road.
Troy allows 11ppg at home. (excluded Alcorn St)

X-FACTOR:
I said earlier this year I was not going to post games between teams I hadn’t seen play anymore. I stuck to it and it’s helped, but now I am breaking my rule for this game. On top of the normal program I have another system I use to generate numbers and on that one I have Troy as a 17 point favorite.

Computer Program:
Troy -10.3 so at -11 we would have no value.

Play:
Troy -11* (Hunch Play)



I have 3 more games but I am just doing it this way and not like the other games because you don’t need to see a bunch of numbers for these.

12:00 PM
Navy-11 @ Army

Great rivalry for sake of tradition because lately it has been anything but a true rivalry. You’ll never hear me say one team has no shot at beating another team because too many crazy things can happen, but unless Army deploys more troops I don’t like their chances here.

Play:
Navy -11*


4:00 PM
Alabama vs Florida -9.5

Everyone knows I am a gator fan through and through. More importantly everyone knows how explosive Florida’s offense is. They have more combined team speed than anyone in the nation. They also have Tebow who was anointed Superman before he ever arrived on campus. To go along with the offense they have Florida is now playing lights out defense.
As for Alabama people have doubted them all season. They said the win over Clemson to start the season was nothing because of how Clemson never performed as expected. People discredited wins at Georgia and LSU because both were overrated. Many people suggested that the close game against Kentucky showed signs of weakness and lack of killer instinct. A lot of people think that a #1 team in the nation should dominate teams they are superior too.
What people seem to overlook though was how Alabama actually performed in their games. Nothing was flashy. They didn’t wow you with explosive offense. It was all done very pedestrian like. Solid fundamental execution. Certainly there were games where they got a little lax in the second half but they never really were in any danger of losing those games. Alabama has one of the best offensive and defensive lines out there. They have a solid ground game and the secondary while not the best play good schemes and stay where they are supposed to be. They have experienced quarterback who will never win any awards with his performance but also doesn’t make many mistakes or put his team in jeopardy. What Alabama has most of all though is maybe the best coach in college football today in Nick Saban. I know, I know, some people dislike him because he left LSU and other despise him because of how he mishandled the Miami Dolphins situation but when you get past the hate you can not deny the man can coach.
I still think Florida will win this game and if they get out front by a couple of scores it could easily be a blowout, but I for one think Bama can keep it close and hang around long enough to get a cover here.

Opinion:
Alabama +9.5 (No Play)


8:00 PM
Missouri vs Oklahoma -15

It’s difficult to put up the kinds of scores Oklahoma has been putting up. Missouri has a great offense of their own. Unless Oklahoma is just utterly flat though this game gets out of hand and stays that way.

Play:
Oklahoma -15*

[guru-t]

GL wal.Nice lookin plays.Love ECU and OKLA myself.Who do you like tonight and how strong do you like them on a scale of 1-5?I'm actually looking at the total of 57.5 here.I like it under do to the fact that M-TENN-ST has had trouble scoring.Looks like a mid to upper 40's game to me.

[SportNut]

ULL lookking good

[Cougar Bait]

Went against you and took MTS. But, I've been on BC all week. And, I like that pick for the same basic reason you do. I hope it comes down to being that simple. GL with your picks. Nice write-ups. I always like reading them.

[wal66]

UL Lafayette........winner

[wal66]

Thanks guru, Sportnut and Cougar.

[bypp]

I enjoyed your writeups. Nice pick on the ULL game. With you on BC, OKLA, and ECU. Good luck this week

[wal66]

I enjoyed your writeups. Nice pick on the ULL game. With you on BC, OKLA, and ECU. Good luck this week

I appreciate that. Those are the games I personally feel the strongest about. I only post the games that rate the highest and they all rated equally except the hunch play.

[wal66]

Louisville.........LOSER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1-1 so far.

[demize21]

i hope the computer is wrong about buff since i took ball -15 BOL tonight

[SportNut]

Wow buffalo's killing the bird

[wal66]

Never expected Buffalo to win outright.

2-1 so far.

[guru-t]

Congrats on Buff wal.I had BallSt.Fell for the trap.Oh well.2-2 this week.Big Sat coming up.GL tomorrow wal!

[wal66]

East Carolina.................Winner
Navy...........................Winner
Pittsburgh.....................Winner
Boston College...............LOSER (sucks cause I thought this was the best play of them all)

3-1 so far today
5-2 for the week so far.

[wal66]

Glad the Florida/Albama play was just an opinion. I really though that Alabama would keep pounding the middle more. Who knows who cares Florida get a date for the Title.

[SportNut]

Good work Wal

[wal66]

I appreciate the acknowledgment SportNut.

[wal66]

Troy........................Winner
Oklahoma..................Winner

Makes for a 5-1 Saturday and a 7-2 week,

[guru-t]

Great job Wal.Damn.It sux I came across the forum so late in the year.At least we still have the bowls.I'm really looking forward to next year and seeing how my first-full year at SBR will turn out.

[wal66]

same here guru. I finally developed a system this season that worked. Will be interesting to see if it able to sustain.

Looking for ward to the bowls.

[wal66]

Tuesday December 30, 2008
4:30PM
Humanitarian Bowl Boise Idaho
Nevada vs Maryland

Records:
Nevada 7-5 (5-6 ATS)
Maryland 7-5 (5-6 ATS)

Trends:
Under is 6-2 in Maryland’s last 8 games overall.

Offense:
Nevada averages 37ppg on the road.
Maryland averages 13.6ppg on the road.

Defense:
Nevada allows 34.5ppg on the road. (Missouri hurt the average by hanging 69 on them)
Maryland allows 24.6ppg on the road.

Bowl History:
Nevada is 3-6 in bowl games. They are making their 4th consecutive bowl appearance.
Maryland is 9-11-2 in bowl games. They are making their 3rd consecutive bowl appearance.

X-FACTOR:
Not a game I am looking forward to seeing and certainly wasn’t interested in capping. When you are trying to compare teams from different conferences it’s always difficult, when those teams can’t be compared with common opponents or even styles of play it becomes almost impossible. So now we have to try and determine was the competition faced by one team better than that of the other. The ACC certainly had the most parity of the conferences but none of the teams were considered offensive juggernauts. We know they can score points out in the WAC the question now becomes can they play enough defense. Against a Georgia Tech I would say no they couldn’t but against a very inconsistent Maryland team I think they have a good chance.

Computer Program:
Maryland -3.27 so at +1.5 if you choose Maryland you have good value.

Play:
Nevada -1.5*




Tuesday December 30, 2008
8:00PM
Texas Bowl Houston Texas
Western Michigan vs Rice

Records:
Western Michigan 9-3 (5-6 ATS)
Rice 9-3 (8-4 ATS)

Trends:
Over is 9-1 in Western Michigan’ last 10 non-conference games.
Over is 13-3 in Rice’s last 16 games as a favorite.

Offense:
Western Michigan averages 27.6ppg on the road.
Rice averages 51.6ppg at home.

Defense:
Western Michigan allows 31.5ppg on the road.
Rice allows 28.3ppg at home.

Bowl History:
Western Michigan is 0-3 in bowl games.
Rice is 4-4 in bowl games.

X-FACTOR:
I think this is a great bowl game. It should be one of the most entertaining games at least. Points should be in excess here. Both teams have very talented quarterbacks and neither defense has really been focused on stopping the opponent. It is a home game for Rice here and that will be the edge if there was a doubt.

Computer Program:
Western Michigan -.83 so at +3 you have some value.

Play:
Rice -3*




Tuesday December 30, 2008
8:00PM
Holiday Bowl San Diego CA
Oregon vs Oklahoma St

Records:
Oregon 9-3 (6-6 ATS)
Oklahoma St 9-3 (8-3 ATS)

Trends:
Oklahoma St is 9-3 ATS in last 12 games overall.

Common Opponents:
Oregon 63 Washington St 14
Oklahoma St 39 Washington St 13

Offense:
Oregon averages 40ppg on the road.
Oklahoma St averages 28.3ppg on the road.

Defense:
Oregon allows 28ppg on the road.
Oklahoma St allows 27.4ppg on the road.

Bowl History:
Oregon is 8-13 in bowl games. They are making their 4th consecutive bowl appearance.
Oklahoma St is 12-6 SU in bowl games. They are playing in their 3rd consecutive bowl game, winning their last two.

X-FACTOR:
Alright, this is a great game. Well I guess that remains to be seen but it sizes up on paper as a really entertaining ball game. Oregon has been impressive this season only falling California and USC in the conference and that upset loss (to some) against Boise. Oklahoma St on the other hand had an equally good season losing only to the top 3 in the conference, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. Both these teams can light up the scoreboard as well. Oklahoma has the edge in defense and that may be the key here. If they can force a couple of stops and throw in a turnover or two then they should be able to pull off the win. This game has 45-41 kind of feel to it.

Computer Program:
Oklahoma ST -3.68 so at -3.5 we have no value.

Play:Oklahoma St -3.5* (suggest buying the hook)