[jjgold]

Like rolling the dice boys

Very difficult game to beat

I would take bases over this shit anyday

[Mudcat]

+1200 ML dog South Florida leading Louisville 38-7 late in the 3rd quarter.

Go figure.

[Mr Nuts]

yea i had louisville -20 tonight sucks

[clonecat]

Purdue is my major complaint of the day. Up 8 late allowing a 4th down conversion and a two point conversion. It seems as every gambler loses more close games than he wins.

[Montreal514]

Yeah I'm just wondering who else got screwed over this weekend by Utah's "let them score a TD on their last drive" to f*** up the spread and also by Florida's "let's not do anything in the second half" and allow them to score 3 unanswered TD's. Got screwed over by two BS backdoor covers this week. Doesn't matter to them because they still get the W though.

[David]

USC very strong in second half. Were down 3 at halftime.

[BuddyBear]

Seems like there are a lot of backdoor covers...i have no evidence for this but intuitively if you play more underdogs you should get a lot more of those backdoor covers like I had Kentucky today...i am not even sure what happened as i was out of town...but i also had Oregon and i left the wedding they were up 13-0...came back saw the score 45-13!

You never know what to expect in gambling...that's why you have to wait till the last second of every game!

[freebie]

+1200 ML dog South Florida leading Louisville 38-7 late in the 3rd quarter.

Go figure.

Did you actually put money on +1200?
The most I would imagine anyone would put down is probably $25-$100?

[Relentless]

+1200 is a nice line on that dog. Where did you find +1200?

[aceking]

I had North Carolina to beat NC State , +400

[LVHerbie]

Yeah I'm just wondering who else got screwed over this weekend by Utah's "let them score a TD on their last drive" to f*** up the spread and also by Florida's "let's not do anything in the second half" and allow them to score 3 unanswered TD's. Got screwed over by two BS backdoor covers this week. Doesn't matter to them because they still get the W though.

Obviously they don't care about the spread and one has to consider that when betting big favorites... but it works both ways and, theorically, should average out... For example I got screwed on the Purdue game today but was on the right side in the Air Force game...

[jjgold]

Way too hard to predict colege kids performances as they are not pros and not as consistent as pros mentally or physically

[EBone]

College used to be a bastian of money-grabbing for me. This year, I have absolutely sucked. No two ways about it. I need to re-evaluate.


E

[Mudcat]

Did you actually put money on +1200?
The most I would imagine anyone would put down is probably $25-$100?

+1200 is a nice line on that dog. Where did you find +1200?

No I didn't have money on it. I'm just always researching large ML dogs on a spreadsheet. On ncaaf, I'll only bet up to around +700 right now (but it's been a disaster so far this year).

I can't tell you exactly where I found it. I was checking a few books and I didn't make a note of it. Had to be either Pinnacle or Olympic.

[THESCOUT]

Really! true genius, a profound truth revealed

[sergfro]

The Louisville/South Florida game opened at -22 with 80% of the public on them. Line dropped to -19.5 go figure..sharps knew something was up

[Relentless]

Mudcat, I have not found large ML dogs in college football to be a good bet, largely because of the increase in the spread between the fav and dog and the moneyline gets larger. Conversely, I would say betting on the large ML fav is even a worse bet. The lines seem to be pretty much on for these bets imo.

[Mudcat]

Mudcat, I have not found large ML dogs in college football to be a good bet, largely because of the increase in the spread between the fav and dog and the moneyline gets larger. Conversely, I would say betting on the large ML fav is even a worse bet. The lines seem to be pretty much on for these bets imo.

Last year I did unbelievably well betting ncaaf ML dogs of over +200. (My criterion is I only bet games if there are at least a few books carrying the line, meaning the upper limit ends up being about +700.)

I mean, the results were freakishly good last year. This year, I am being forced back down to earth on this angle.

The results did get better as the year went along. Maybe that's the lesson. Instead of starting to bet in week 3 (which is a rule of thumb I've adopted from my NFL experiece) I need to wait longer in ncaaf.

Then again, maybe I just need to chill out. These things go through ups and downs and a professional has to have the balls to sit through a losing streak without freaking out.

I'll keep watching and doing the research.

[jjgold]

More parity in college football than ever before is one of reasons most get hammered betting it

[Relentless]

Last year I did unbelievably well betting ncaaf ML dogs of over +200. (My criterion is I only bet games if there are at least a few books carrying the line, meaning the upper limit ends up being about +700.)

I mean, the results were freakishly good last year. This year, I am being forced back down to earth on this angle.

The results did get better as the year went along. Maybe that's the lesson. Instead of starting to bet in week 3 (which is a rule of thumb I've adopted from my NFL experiece) I need to wait longer in ncaaf.

Then again, maybe I just need to chill out. These things go through ups and downs and a professional has to have the balls to sit through a losing streak without freaking out.

I'll keep watching and doing the research.

Sorry, I was just referring to your earlier post on the +700 college dog. I haven't found dogs THIS big an underdog to be profitable on the ML, say days over 17 pt dogs.

[Mudcat]

Sorry, I was just referring to your earlier post on the +700 college dog. I haven't found dogs THIS big an underdog to be profitable on the ML, say days over 17 pt dogs.

I think you're exactly right and all your thoughts on the subject make a lot of sense.

[darkghost]

It was a freakish weekend for me w/ most of the games I bet going into OT. I had to do a lot of sweating w/ Minnesota -3 (I needed a miracle and got one), BYU -3 (took a bad beat w/ TCU scoring 3 TDs in the 4th to force OT and winning it in OT off a missed extra point by BYU), Tulsa Pk (again Tulsa leads thru 3Qs to have Memphis tie it in the 4th but Tulsa pulled through), and had the Jags today they were battling back and forth all day but the Jags took care of business in the end.

Did anyone else have the over on the Mich/Wis game Saturday where Henne looks like he fumbles at the end of the game and Wisconsin runs it back for a TD? The TD would've pushed the total over but the refs ruled the play dead. Too bad they don't look over these meaningless plays on replay.

[jentude]

i had gt over v tech + 12 as my big play of the weekend! Thought they would give them a good game maybe steal it. OPPS man that was over at the half

[why]

I am giving my profits from bases to college foots and making a little back in the NFL, may have to cool it for awhile in college!

[jjgold]

I lose almost every Sat and hold my own on Sundays

[Illusion]

How are you doing in your contest jj?

[jjgold]

I am 50th out of World Challenge of Handicapping Top Rankings 2005
My Rank : 50

out of about 3k after 3 weeks

[Illusion]

Is it a dime each week to play? Didin't you just go 6-1 on Sunday? How does it work?

Sounds like a cool contest.

[jjgold]

I really am only in this against a poster called Reno for 3k winner take at all end of year.

The actual Bowmans contest I am 50th out of about 3,000

With Reno and I it is who has better record at end of year

[Illusion]

50/3000 is pretty damn good. Good luck with the rest of your contest.