[Dizzle14]

Alright fellas, let's continue into week 7 and make it profitable!! So far this season, things are going great to say the least. Again, I will note that hitting at an 80% clip all season is mathematically improbable. Not saying it cannot happen, but I have yet to EVER see ANYONE do it. I usually hit about a 65% clip every season, which in itself is better than most any pay service I can think of.

The reason I am noting all of this is because I have noticed I have a pretty large crowd that comes in here and views these plays. I probably shouldn't care, but I would like everyone to be successful and do not want to let anyone down.So, Please do not think any play is guaranteed. Also, I would like to remind all of us that Proper Money Management is VERY important, and DO NOT unload EVER!!. I WILL make ALL of you a substantial amount of money this season as long as you keep proper betting strategy.

Ok now that I have gotten that out of the way, let's get down to Football.

Lines are out, and here are my initial thoughts:
Vanderbilt -2
Oklahoma -7*
Kentucky Pk
Purdue +19
Tennessee +13.5*
Wisconsin +5
Stanford +6.5

None of these are plays, but I will be looking into and analyzing them. Sometimes I end up playing my initial thoughts, sometimes I lay off them, sometimes I find something that makes me fade my initial thought. So I will keep you updated. As always, Good Luck this week and let's do what we are here to do.

Note*:I am currently very active in another forum (just as large or larger than this one...RX). Anyway, I am having a great season and thought that I would share with everyone and try and contribute the best way that I can. *ALL PLAYS CAN BE TRACKED AT LOCATION NOTED ABOVE.

I am only here to contribute as much as I can. Good Luck this week.

[Dizzle14]

TROY (2 - 2) at FLA ATLANTIC (1 - 4)
Week 7 Tuesday, 10/7/2008 8:00 PM

I believe Troy will win this game convincingly.Simple really. Troy is the better team, who is 2-1-0 ATS on away games. Troy demolished the very team that beat FAU last week. Both teams played at MTSU. Also, this may not make much difference but I think it could play a key role in a spread this small, but Troy comes into this game off of 10 days of rest and time to prepare for this game.

Rushing:
Troy is averaging 5.5 YPR and giving up 3.8 YPR on defense.
FAU is averaging 4.0 YPR and giving up 4.4 YPR on defense.
Edge goes to TROY in ball control and pace of game.

All games in this series since 1992
TROY is 3-1 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC since 1992
TROY is 4-1 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC since 1992

TROY is 9-2 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.



I'm Taking Troy -3 (-115) 2 Unit Play

[Dizzle14]

Game 1
--------
LSU (4 - 0) at FLORIDA (4 - 1)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/11/2008 8:00 PM
Last season LSU beat Florida 28-24 in Baton Rouge and the year before it was Florida winning 23-10. The Gators have won 11 of the last 16 meetings and have gone 10-6 ATS. This series has also gone UNDER the total in 10 of the last 13 games include all 5 in Florida. From what I have seen this season, Florida is a superior team to LSU. I personally see Florida winning by 7-10 pts, or something in that area. I'm not sure what the total will be on this game, but I see this a semi low-scoring game. Will possibly lean to UNDER later in week. LSU is 1-2 ATS this season, and Florida is3-2 ATS.


LSU is 0-7 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus LSU over the last 3 seasons.

Line started at Florida -4 and is now at Florida -5 to -5.5. (Depending where you wager.) I see this line getting up to 6 so grab now if you like this side. The public will be all over the Dog in this one.

Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Gators are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Florida.
Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

I'm Taking Florida Gators -5
(5 Unit Play)

[Dizzle14]

Game 2
----------
MIAMI OHIO (1 - 4) at N ILLINOIS (2 - 3)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/11/2008 4:00 PM

This game between the Huskies and Red Hawks looks to be a blood bath. The Redhawks avgeraging 1.8 YPR on the road and their Dfense allowing 5.0 YPR could be in for a long day Saturday. Especially when the Huskies are running with great success at Home this season averaging 7.7 YPR and allowing just 1.1 YPR on D!! Passing for Miami (OH) is comparitively poor achieving just 5.2 YPA. Frankly I'm not sure how the Redhawks are going to have any chance at moving the ball or stopping N. Illinois on D. Possible blowout here unless i'm missing something.

Recent Trends:
MIAOH are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Huskies are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Huskies are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Redhawks are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Redhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

I'm Taking N. Illinois -10.5 (5 Units)

[Jcoz]

I like that Troy pick, I hope you are right, I had it before I saw this and enjoyed the write up.

What makes you like the Stanford and Purdue sides? I am on the opposite side of the fence on both, and very high on Arizona. I think Arizona is finally ready to have a complete season (not necessarily win the Pac ten but a better year than in the past, and recent trends favor the road team in that series. Statistics breakdown shows Stanford weakness vs Arizona Strength as well (passing).

[Dizzle14]

TROY (2 - 2) at FLA ATLANTIC (1 - 4)
Week 7 Tuesday, 10/7/2008 8:00 PM

I believe Troy will win this game convincingly.Simple really. Troy is the better team, who is 2-1-0 ATS on away games. Troy demolished the very team that beat FAU last week. Both teams played at MTSU. Also, this may not make much difference but I think it could play a key role in a spread this small, but Troy comes into this game off of 10 days of rest and time to prepare for this game.

Rushing:
Troy is averaging 5.5 YPR and giving up 3.8 YPR on defense.
FAU is averaging 4.0 YPR and giving up 4.4 YPR on defense.
Edge goes to TROY in ball control and pace of game.

All games in this series since 1992
TROY is 3-1 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC since 1992
TROY is 4-1 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC since 1992

TROY is 9-2 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.



I'm Taking Troy -3 (-115) 2 Unit Play

(WINNER) +2 Units!!
I figured Troy would win this Easily.
Great way too start off the week. What a wonderful thing College Football is!!!

[Dbldown11]

Game 2
----------
MIAMI OHIO (1 - 4) at N ILLINOIS (2 - 3)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/11/2008 4:00 PM

This game between the Huskies and Red Hawks looks to be a blood bath. The Redhawks avgeraging 1.8 YPR on the road and their Dfense allowing 5.0 YPR could be in for a long day Saturday. Especially when the Huskies are running with great success at Home this season averaging 7.7 YPR and allowing just 1.1 YPR on D!! Passing for Miami (OH) is comparitively poor achieving just 5.2 YPA. Frankly I'm not sure how the Redhawks are going to have any chance at moving the ball or stopping N. Illinois on D. Possible blowout here unless i'm missing something.

Recent Trends:
MIAOH are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Huskies are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on turf.
Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Huskies are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Redhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Redhawks are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Redhawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

I'm Taking N. Illinois -10.5 (5 Units)

Love the pick buddy and I'm all over it myself. But please dont use those stats from their one home game as reasons haha. The one home game you are talking about was against Indiana St. A team that Eastern Michigan shut out for god sakes haha

that being said I love the pick

[SportNut]

Oh so this is him. I've won some real nice bread when he was posting at Covers, I was there recently. He made this month of mine the best year in betting football. Thanks dude if you reading this.