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Paul Daley is +155 against Nick Diaz!
This is a gift...Paul Daley should be more like +105 or +110.
If Nick Diaz fights the smart fight, it should be relatively easy for him.
However, if he continues to delude himself thinking he's a great striker he will get KO'd real fast. Paul Daley is the much more refined striker and has heavy hands.
Another wager to think about is this fight, "not going the distance."
I see Diaz getting a late sub, or Daley getting an early KO.
What are your thoughts?
I think Diaz will get dropped atleast once but will wear daley down and get the win.
Not so sure I like a play on Daley...
But I definitely like the "not go the distance" prop, given that we get 5 rounds in this one. Though, I presume the odds will reflect this thinking as well...
It's a gift at +155 for Daley?... but if Diaz fights a smart fight he should win?
A gift would be Diaz at + money. When this fight hits the mat... and it will eventually, Daley is out of his element and Nick will capitalize.
I like Diaz at -195 to be honest and am putting him in a couple parlays.
Couldn't have said it better myself.Originally Posted by Educ8d Degener8
Over 2.5 might be better value at + odds.
The gift here is Diaz being under -200. Can't wait to see Nick tear this guy apart (on the ground OR on the feet).
Don't see much value in betting on Daley outright. You're much better off waiting for the prop bets.
As for the specifics of the fight, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Diaz try to prove a point and stand with Daley. That doesn't necessarily favour Diaz, but it's important to remember that his chin is incredibly good and his recovery is amazing, as well. You can smash him, but the moment he hits the ground he's straight back in the fight.
Unless you're cutting him up and invoking a doctor stoppage, you have to do what Jeremy Jackson did: drop him, then fire away with an absolute torrent of punches. Is Daley capable of doing that? Quite possibly. But I think it's more likely that Diaz weathers the storm, brings Daley to the mat and taps him. Diaz is obviously leagues ahead on the ground, and if Jorge Masvidal can take Daley down, then I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Diaz can too.
If he's losing the stand up and/or gets cracked and dropped with a big left hook, then he probably will. Unless he's a complete idiot.
Diaz said in an interview after the Cyborg fight that if he fought Daley he'd probly stand for a bit then take him down and submit him. Diaz may come across as being dumb but he clearly isn't!
Exactly. We're not talking about Jorge Gurgel here.
hmmm daley isnt a bad play ehre. hes got some solid standup and i dont see nick tryign to go to the ground.
I dont think Diaz can get Daley down in the first 2 rounds. Maybe I am wrong, but Daley, when focused and prepared has good takedown defense. Diaz definitely does not have a good enough shot to get the takedown. Dont think he has the throws or greco roman type takedowns to get it there. Best chance is to wear Daley down against the cage, drop for a single and drag him down.
But, I am also not convinced Daley will win a striking battle. He does not have the cardio. Diaz has the chin. If I remember the Masivadal fight correctly, Daley had some trouble getting stuck at the end of the jab.
I dont know if I can take Diaz though when you know he is going to put himself in the line of fire and probably take fairly flush bombs at some point early in the fight.
IMO, at this point, I think the line is close to accurate but would be more inclined to take Diaz at -195.
Diaz all day on this one...but I wont take him at over -200 odds, which is probably what I will get on bookmaker. He will win this one on the ground guaranteed...he will stand and bang for the first couple minutes, then go to the ground and sub him rather easily. Diaz is a world class BJJ practitioner, he wont stray far from his roots.
Is there much evidence to support this? Daley was taken down several times by Nick Thompson who's not that great of an offensive wrestler. Masvidal also took him down multiple times, and while he's a decent wrestler, he's also a natural 155'er. I think Diaz brings Daley down if he really wants to.Maybe I am wrong, but Daley, when focused and prepared has good takedown defense.
Diaz is the superior fighter. Like terpkeg said, Diaz can strike with daley. Daley can't roll with Diaz. Diaz is in much better shape, hes a smarter fighter, he's longer. Diaz doesn't over commit while striking to get himself KO'd. I agree that Diaz can and will take him down eventually. The question I have is do you think the odds will get any better than -195 for Diaz or should I take him now?
If you want to bet on him outright, do it now. Will be very surprised if the odds get any better than that.
diaz has horrible takedowns is his problem. 2 fights ago he didn't take the guy down (name is slipping my mind... but he had beaten diaz and was a prof boxer) and in his last fight i'm pretty sure diaz got taken down or thrown to the ground by cyborg and then diaz just submitted him... lean to the underdog in this fight...
No. Daley, as we all know, clearly has a power advantage, but Diaz's boxing technique is much more refined than Daley's. The line is right on IMO. Does Daley have a legitimate shot to rock Diaz early and take him out? Sure he does, he is one of the most powerful strikers in the division. But to say he should be close to +105 or +110 is a bit ridiculous. One of Diaz's greatest strengths is his chin. See his fight (a long time ago but still) vs Robbie Lawler, and his first fight vs Noons. The guy can take a punch. And I don't think anyone will disagree that Diaz has a major advantage on the ground. Having said that, I think it will be very difficult early in the fight for Diaz to get Semtex on the ground. His take downs aren't all that great, and Daley has underrated take down defense. Very interesting fight, can't wait.
I will be rolling with Diaz all day. Good luck everyone!
Not unlike Shogun, here an abysmal grappler gets an inflated line from his striking wars. Diaz isn't a great wrestler, but any kind of grappling exchange at all is a losing proposition for Daley, and he's got enough chin to make mistakes and still get the fight to where he needs it to.
I say Diaz is going to overwhelm Daley standing up just like he does with everyone else.
Paul Daley has a very hard time making weight, he has missed weight in the past and if he does make weight he makes use of the extra 1lbs allowed. If he makes weight I think he will gas if it goes past the second round.
this should be a real concern for diaz backers...i`m a diaz fan of sorts...i think he`s a tough nut...but he`s not really a great shoot and takedown guy...
i`m thinking back to his fight with gomi...he was getting beaten until gomi`s cardio failed him....
he took gomi`s shots.... but can he take daley`s without breaking up?...much bigger guy...possibly the biggest puncher pfp in mma...
diaz is tough to figure...he can stop robbie lawler...but struggles mightily with mike aina and even cyborg...there were points in his cyborg fight in which diaz was getting hammered...i was very nervous at certain points in that fight...
he doesn`t want to take those shots vs daley...
lot of variables in this fight...
Smartest play on this fight is to bet on Diaz and hedge with Daley by (T)KO.
Sure Daley could possibly win a decision here if he keeps on his feet... but I just see him fading and Diaz picking him apart and eventually finding the sub. Paul by TKO is most likely to happen from a cut or from overwhelming Diaz early.
If Paul would put in some major work on his ground game, he could be a beast.
Last edited by sirchadwick1; 03-22-11 at 07:55 AM.
Good discussion. My $.02:
* Diaz hasn't been knocked out since 2002, and that came during his 3rd fight of a one-night tournament when he was 19.
* Diaz hasn't had an issue with cuts since he had surgery to remove scar tissue a year or two ago. Stoppage by cuts is extremely unlikely for either fighter.
The only thing that concerns me is that Diaz likes to box and I could see him choosing to box for 5 rounds with Daley like he decided to do with KJ Noons, instead of just submitting him. That increases Daley's chances of winning a little.
Daley has knockout power, but KO is the only way he can win the fight, and the probability of KO isn't 40% (+150 current odds). I'd say his chance of winning is 5%, 15% if Diaz wants to box 5 rounds. So I like Diaz up to -400 or so.
I'll be curious to see what the line is for the fight not going to decision. These two fighters should probably go to decision less than 5% of the time, which would be a line of -2000 inside the distance. That's obviously not going to draw any action, so maybe they open it at -500? I'll take that in parlays.
No way semtex wins a decision. Maybe a ko. I see diaz doing what he always does. Wear out the dude until he ends up with a tko or maybe a choke out.
Good contribution, though I think your percentages are a little harsh; the chance of the fight going the distance is definitely higher than 5%. Who's to say that Diaz doesn't stand with Daley for five rounds and counter punch his way to a decision win? It's unlikely, but if Nick Thompson can have success counter punching Daley across three rounds, then so can a great boxer like Diaz across five rounds.
While I don't have his chances as low as 5%, I do agree that this is a hard fight for Daley to win. Dropping Diaz is one thing, but finishing him is something else entirely.Daley has knockout power, but KO is the only way he can win the fight, and the probability of KO isn't 40% (+150 current odds). I'd say his chance of winning is 5%, 15% if Diaz wants to box 5 rounds. So I like Diaz up to -400 or so.
* Diaz hasn't been knocked out since 2002, and that came during his 3rd fight of a one-night tournament when he was 19.
Valid point but it doesn't change the fact that Diaz's skin is susceptible to being cut. Some guys are just bleeders and he's one of them.* Diaz hasn't had an issue with cuts since he had surgery to remove scar tissue a year or two ago. Stoppage by cuts is extremely unlikely for either fighter.
Last edited by Ladle; 03-22-11 at 09:39 AM.
No disrespect my friend but I just can't agree with the idea that Nick Diaz is the more "Refined striker." He's sloppy and if he chooses to stand and strike with Daley as he did with Cyborg Santos he will lose...and lose fast. Santos was tagging him repeatedly in that fight...
I would also suggest looking at Zarmarskis fight. THat was sloppy striking as well.
Nick Diaz's striking is vastly overrated and he leaves himself exposed often. Take a look at the Cyborg fight...count how many times he gets tagged.
Getting tagged by Daley will result in a KO loss for Diaz.
If Diaz fights a smart fight, mixing his strikes with take down attempts and utilizing his BJJ, then I have him winning.
If he chooses to stand and bang with Daley....I have Daley winning rather easily and convincingly.
Diaz got smacked a couple of times, and was getting battered with leg kicks, but in terms of punches he considerably out-landed Cyborg. His style might be ugly but its efficacy has been proven; watch the second KJ Noons fight to see how he shapes up against a decent technical boxer.No disrespect my friend but I just can't agree with the idea that Nick Diaz is the more "Refined striker." He's sloppy and if he chooses to stand and strike with Daley as he did with Cyborg Santos he will lose...and lose fast. Santos was tagging him repeatedly in that fight...
Point is, I don't agree with this notion that Daley is going to blast Diaz out of the water if Diaz decides to stand and trade. A striking battle doesn't necessarily favour Diaz, but history has shown us that he's going to be extremely hard to finish, regardless of who he's fighting. Also, as I mentioned before, let's not forget that Paul Daley was getting counter punched by Nick Thompson for prolonged periods during their fight. Nick Thompson's boxing ability pales in comparison to Diaz's.
I think any defensive deficiencies he might have are overshadowed by his chin, recovery and toughness.Nick Diaz's striking is vastly overrated and he leaves himself exposed often.
I don't doubt Nick Diaz's tenacity and ability to absorb punishment. I have been a "hater" of his for a while but I always admired his never say die, fight anyone at anytime attitude.
His Fight with Gomi impressed the hell out of me, as did his second fight with KJ noons.
That being said...Daley has heavier hands then any opponent Diaz has faced before and he actually has a good striking Pedigree.
I certainly don't disagree that he's the hardest hitter. That said, it's not like Daley - or anyone else for that matter - is likely to knock Diaz unconscious with one punch. Daley is going to have to crack him, drop him, then unload on him with a flurry of punches and try to force a stoppage. Possible? Yes. Likely? Not in my opinion. I think it's more probable that Diaz recovers if that scenario plays out, at which point he'd probably look to take Daley down and tap him.That being said...Daley has heavier hands then any opponent Diaz has faced before and he actually has a good striking Pedigree.
Daley is the best fighter Diaz will face to date
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