[punchmaster]

Hello,

I'm a big fan of 130 lb. Humberto Soto, who fights on the undercard of the Manny Pacquiao/David Diaz 135 lb. title bout, Saturday night. They list the over/under round proposition as 10.5 rounds, and I think his 36 year old opponent , Francisco Lorezno will have a tough time making it that far. The starting line was +200 and last I checked, +165. I see good value on anything over +120. The most challenging style for the rugged Soto is an exceptional speedster who can manage to stay away for 12 rounds as Joan Guzman did after trading with Soto in the early rounds. Lorenzo is a short , out hustle you type guy who does a lot of work in close. He does not have the power to hurt Soto and his age is starting to become a factor to no allow him to get on his bicycle for too long. This is a (interim) title fight and provides a stage for the underappreciated Soto to show what he can do.

I tend to bet a % of a running bankroll, anywhere from 1/2 to 7%. Let's start with a hypothetical $5K bankroll and track all picks to see where we end up at the end of the year. I documented a pick here a couple of weeks ago on an under 11.5 round (-125) joke of a line in which I put a very conservative 2.5% on a fight that was over in 2 rounds. So with the $5100 bank roll, I recommend 2% on under 10.5 rounds at +165. GL

[smallon]

Soto is vastly underestimated, not to mention he's the bigger and stronger of the two. There's value in the under at +165 however Lorenzo has never been stopped. He's also an experienced fighter who's been in with Nate Campbell, Cristobal Cruz, and Juan Diaz.

As you noted, the fight is for a title, albeit, and interim title, and the thirty-six year-old knows this is probably his last shot so he should be up for it. Soto is not a one punch KO artist so if he's going to get Lorenzo, he'll wear him down and the stoppage will come later in the fight, between rounds 8 and 12. I do see Soto winning the fight, but IMO, in all likelihood, it will be via decision.

[punchmaster]

Originally Posted by smallon

Soto is vastly underestimated, not to mention he's the bigger and stronger of the two. There's value in the under at +165 however Lorenzo has never been stopped. He's also an experienced fighter who's been in with Nate Campbell, Cristobal Cruz, and Juan Diaz.

As you noted, the fight is for a title, albeit, and interim title, and the thirty-six year-old knows this is probably his last shot so he should be up for it. Soto is not a one punch KO artist so if he's going to get Lorenzo, he'll wear him down and the stoppage will come later in the fight, between rounds 8 and 12. I do see Soto winning the fight, but IMO, in all likelihood, it will be via decision.

Thanks for the comment and opinion Smallon. ( I'm still not convinced Arce won that -2000 bout ) There's a lot of contact with Lorenzo, isn't there? I've seen him a few times, and I don't think he's a runner I'm definitely using Lorenzo's age as a factor. He caught Nate Cambell when he was dead at 130 pounds and that was 3 years ago. Soto goes up and down well, doesn't neglect the body punching which may slow Lorenzo down, but I agree Lorenzo should start feeling the pain in the 2nd half of the fight. Soto will keep his hands moving unlike many of Lorenzo's marginal opponents. I did catch it at +200 and have a pile more on Soto to win when it was reasonably priced. He's still a good parlay partner up to -550.

[punchmaster]

Originally Posted by punchmaster

Hello,

I'm a big fan of 130 lb. Humberto Soto, who fights on the undercard of the Manny Pacquiao/David Diaz 135 lb. title bout, Saturday night. They list the over/under round proposition as 10.5 rounds, and I think his 36 year old opponent , Francisco Lorezno will have a tough time making it that far. The starting line was +200 and last I checked, +165. I see good value on anything over +120. The most challenging style for the rugged Soto is an exceptional speedster who can manage to stay away for 12 rounds as Joan Guzman did after trading with Soto in the early rounds. Lorenzo is a short , out hustle you type guy who does a lot of work in close. He does not have the power to hurt Soto and his age is starting to become a factor to no allow him to get on his bicycle for too long. This is a (interim) title fight and provides a stage for the underappreciated Soto to show what he can do.

I tend to bet a % of a running bankroll, anywhere from 1/2 to 7%. Let's start with a hypothetical $5K bankroll and track all picks to see where we end up at the end of the year. I documented a pick here a couple of weeks ago on an under 11.5 round (-125) joke of a line in which I put a very conservative 2.5% on a fight that was over in 2 rounds. So with the $5100 bank roll, I recommend 2% on under 10.5 rounds at +165. GL

Bump over currently dead topics like Mayweather, etc.

[jennifer]

Box is a good game, i like boxing very much. Lorenzo is a very good boxer and he has never been stopped and also I'm a big fan of 130 lb. every one should improve the attitude of encouraging boxing.
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jennifer

[smallon]

Huh?