[Jordan23]

You just keep cashing the cows!

[Vaughany]

Bellator 38 Plays:

45 units on Daniel Gracie at -134 to win 33.582 units;

28.5 units on Carpenter at +175 to win 49.875 units.

5.082 units profit if Gracie wins, 4.875 units profit if Carpenter wins.

Bellator 38 Review:

Total stake: 73.5 units

Returns: 78.375 units

Profit: +4.875 units

[Vaughany]

Final Summary of UFC Fight Night 24 Plays:


15.919 units on Davis/Nogueira to go the distance at -120 to win 13.266 units;

6.239 units on Davis/Nogueira to not go the distance at +180 to win 11.23 units;

8.131 units on Davis by decision at +175 to win 14.229 units;

6.5 units on Davis by decision at +125 to win 8.125 units;

6.209 units on Not Davis by decision at +105 to win 6.515 units;

6.5 units on Davis by decision at +120 to win 7.8 units;

6.209 units on Not Davis by decision at +105 to win 6.515 units;

6.4 units on Davis by decision at +125 to win 8 units;

6.233 units on Not Davis by decision at +103 to win 6.42 units;

0.1 units on Lil Nog Submission of the Night +3300 to win 3.3 units;

0.1 units on Davis Submission of the Night at +1200 to win 1.2 units;


15.598 units on Rumble/Hardy to go the distance at +190 to win 29.616 units;

25 units on Rumble/Hardy to not go the distance at -140 to win 17.857 units;

0.655 units on Johnson/Hardy Fight of the Night at +550 to win 3.602 units;

2 units on Rumble Johnson KO of the Night at +650 to win 13 units;

0.327 units on Hardy KO of the Night at +1400 to win 4.578 units;

2.5 units on Johnson/Hardy to go the distance at +120 to win 3 units;


12.4 units on Sadollah/D.Johnson to go the distance at -150 to win 8.267 units;

6.234 units on Sadollah/D.Johnson to not go the distance at +200 to win 12.468 units;

0.1 units on Damarques Johnson KO of the Night at +2800 to win 2.8 units;


10 units on Semerzier at -205 to win 4.878 units.


7.998 units on Morecraft/McCorkle to not go the distance at -200 to win 3.999 units;

0.125 units on Morecraft KO of the Night at +900 to win 1.125 units;


0.655 units on McDonald Submission of the Night at +1200 to win 7.860 units;


Parlay: 1 unit on Hendricks, Hathaway, & Madsen by decision to win 2.516 units;


Parlay: 0.5 units on Lentz by decision, & Hathaway by decision to win 2.113 units;


0.05 units on Hathaway Submission of the Night at +1600 to win 0.8 units.

Adding more to the Rumble/Hardy arb:

15.598 units on Rumble/Hardy to go the distance at +205 to win 31.976 units;

27.5 units on Rumble/Hardy to not go the distance at -143 to win 19.25 units.

Adding:

1.248 units on Madsen by decision at +155 to win 1.934 units;

15.598 units on Rumble/Hardy to go the distance at +180 to win 28.076 units;

24.5 units on Rumble/Hardy to not go the distance at -143 to win 17.15 units.

UFC Fight Night 24 Review:


Total stake: 238.126 units

Returns: 282.409 units

Profit: +44.283 units

[bracerman]

Nicely done sir! You keep impressing every event.

[Vaughany]

Bellator 38 Review:

Total stake: 73.5 units

Returns: 78.375 units

Profit: +4.875 units

UFC Fight Night 24 Review:


Total stake: 238.126 units

Returns: 282.409 units

Profit: +44.283 units

Record Review:

Since Bellator 26 (August 26th):

Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units

Total Profit since Aug 26th 2010: +205.141 units

[snake11eyes]

Nice job V. With all the books and props/arbs available to you I'd be suprised if you have a losing night anymore.

[Pete0]

good job !!

[Vaughany]

UFC 129 Plays:


1 unit on Machida by TKO/KO at +125 to win 1.25 units;

1 unit on GSP by decision at +120 to win 1.2 units.

Adding:

5 units on Machida by TKO/KO or Decision at -150 to win 3.333 units.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

great job vaughany

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

you like anything tonight in strike force ? iwas leaning tarzan and a parley with the silverback and terry

[omalley21]

Adding:

5 units on Machida by TKO/KO or Decision at -150 to win 3.333 units.

what? Is this a new prop at paddypower? damn you lucky bastards.

[Vaughany]

you like anything tonight in strike force ? iwas leaning tarzan and a parley with the silverback and terry

I tend to stay away from Challengers cards or just play the dogs because the favourites tend to be over-valued. Was considering a small play on Larkin against Lighty at +135 on Pinnacle. Although Lighty is a big step up from the mediocre competition that Larkin has smashed so far, Lighty hasnt fought in 14 months or sumin so maybe the value is with Larkin in this one. Parlays are probly best way to go tho if u are gonna make plays on this card. GL man

[Chairib]

Vaughny when you have the time, I'd really like an in depth discussion about money management. It's something I really need to get a better grasp on.

[Vaughany]

Vaughny when you have the time, I'd really like an in depth discussion about money management. It's something I really need to get a better grasp on.

Yeah for sure man, whenever is good for me, I'm no expert though and I dont use the Kelly system or anything. But at least I can convey how I go about it and how I decide the amount I stake on a certain fight, or prop etc..

[bjpenn85]

I think everyone should let 10 dollar be the offcial number for 1 unit.
I think the idea of everyone operating under the same language sort of makes this unit chaos more organized.
It would be easy for people to understand the risk evaluating for that specific bet. From here on and now i am starting to post uniits
as vaughany do. 10 dollar 1 unit. 1 Language, 1 comunity, Amen.

I am currently 112 units up since 1th january 2011, and pretty ******* proud of it.

[bjpenn85]

No, its not i am 9000 kr up, divided by 60kr (10 dollar per unit) = 150 units up In Vaughanys language. Woof Barrrrrr auuuuuu

[sirchadwick1]

I think everyone should let 10 dollar be the offcial number for 1 unit.
I think the idea of everyone operating under the same language sort of makes this unit chaos more organized.
It would be easy for people to understand the risk evaluating for that specific bet. From here on and now i am starting to post uniits
as vaughany do. 10 dollar 1 unit. 1 Language, 1 comunity, Amen.

I am currently 112 units up since 1th january 2011, and pretty ******* proud of it.

LOL, nice proposal... but that's not going to work. You have some guys that just bet for fun and others that make a freakin living off of it. Some make $20k/year out there and others make 6 figures no sweat. Your lifestyle/job/situation can make all the difference in the world in how you gamble your money. With that said $10 is a unit for me also. But I can understand there will be others with $100 units and those with $1 units.

[bjpenn85]

But if all people have 10 dollar unit it would still be organized and easy to understand anyway. I mean lets say a guy have 100 dollar as 1 unit. He now post his 100 dollar a unit as 10 units. He may bet more money but that is his style that people will understand after a while, however now everyone understands what he is talking about instead of 1 unit as most people post dont explain anything at all. 1 unit now on this forum is more or less totally not understandable unless you now that person. Most people now that vaughanys unit is 10 dollar, but for people that dont know him, they dont. And why post something nobody understands. If everyone post 10 dollar as 1 unit, it makes sense regardless if youre a freakin billionaire or average joe.
Thats the point. Thats why i am gonna post 10 dollar as 1 unit. So people can critize me, praise, compare, basically have an opinion of what i do, and others off course.
Thats why all comunities have one currency regardless of how rich your are. Although some people just bet for fun, and some make serious money, most of us on this forum define themselfs something in between is my belief. So why not make things clear and understandable?

[NunyaBidness]

I think everyone should let 10 dollar be the offcial number for 1 unit.
I think the idea of everyone operating under the same language sort of makes this unit chaos more organized.
It would be easy for people to understand the risk evaluating for that specific bet. From here on and now i am starting to post uniits
as vaughany do. 10 dollar 1 unit. 1 Language, 1 comunity, Amen.

I am currently 112 units up since 1th january 2011, and pretty ******* proud of it.

The point of units is not making dollar amounts matter. So people betting $10 a fight and people betting $1000 a fight can talk without money getting in the way.

Plus $10 is a pretty silly number. 100u on Phil Davis please, plus 40u on Phil Davis by decision. Makes it sound like the play of the year.

[omalley21]

A unit to me is 2.5% of my bankroll. If I bet 10 units its a big bet. But still only 25% of my bankroll so I wont go broke. Ive gotten up many times only to donk it off with bad money management. Its the most important thing.

[Vaughany]

But if all people have 10 dollar unit it would still be organized and easy to understand anyway. I mean lets say a guy have 100 dollar as 1 unit. He now post his 100 dollar a unit as 10 units. He may bet more money but that is his style that people will understand after a while, however now everyone understands what he is talking about instead of 1 unit as most people post dont explain anything at all. 1 unit now on this forum is more or less totally not understandable unless you now that person. Most people now that vaughanys unit is 10 dollar, but for people that dont know him, they dont. And why post something nobody understands. If everyone post 10 dollar as 1 unit, it makes sense regardless if youre a freakin billionaire or average joe.
Thats the point. Thats why i am gonna post 10 dollar as 1 unit. So people can critize me, praise, compare, basically have an opinion of what i do, and others off course.
Thats why all comunities have one currency regardless of how rich your are. Although some people just bet for fun, and some make serious money, most of us on this forum define themselfs something in between is my belief. So why not make things clear and understandable?

In theory, the whole point of using units is to: a) allow more privacy with regard to one's personal finances and b) is supposed to allow for comparison of results between handicappers who may not necessarily be betting similar amounts. So regarding point a), if everybody had 1 unit = $10 as you are suggesting then you would know that the person who is staking 100 units is betting £1000. It's really just a gambling "etiquette" thing where actual money is removed from the equation. The second part (b) is the key point to units though. A lot of people will go on a thread and just look at how much somebody has made or how much they are staking and think that they are a great handicapper just because they are seeing big figures when this might not necessarily be the case. A poster called "Ganchrow" who is a bit of a Maths genius posted this example a few years ago in the handicappers think tank...

"If you learn that one player is up $50 after 100 bets at -110 and another is up $5,000 after 100 bets at -110, that doesn’t really tell you very much. If, however, the first player had been making $1 bets and the second $10,000 bets, then you’d be able to come to the legitimate conclusion that the first player’s performance was far superior to that of the second over that particular stretch. This is quite obviously true even though the first player had won only 1% of what the second player had won. So a more concise way of saying this would of just been that the first player is up 50 units over 100 bets and the second player is up 0.5 units over 100 bets. While this is functionally equivalent to what was said in the previous paragraph, it’s much more concise and doesn’t require one to reveal information regarding one’s personal finances."

So with regards to my units, generally, a unit can be anywhere between 1 to 10% of what the better is willing to wager from their 'bankroll' so when I started this thread my bankroll was only £100 so I quite simply decided that 10% of that (£10) would equal 1 unit. So also actually if you're talkin about dollars - a unit for me converted to dollars is actually about $16 depending on exchange rate used.

[bjpenn85]

- 10 dollar a unit is silly, ideally it should be 100 dollars, so that phil davis is 1 unit, and max bet for phil davis to decision is 3 unit ( as max bet on props usually excist round 300 dollars)

- Most people do not bet 1000 dollars a fight, or do they? I presume not, because max bet is quite low on most bookies.

- Am I coming across or is it all undesirable and not logic?

My point is, that most people are not billionaires, and will gain from knowing a bit more about the risk the player that post actually take,

that is to say, if we all have quite similar bankroll.

[bjpenn85]

Nice point. I do agree. Just shows that i am no BJ Penn when it comes to betting theory, nor fighting.

[Vaughany]

Great video about Cerrone, Garcia % Barryyy...

[Vaughany]

Palhares vs Branch fight......

http://www.megavideo.com/?v=FJMXRLT0

[sirchadwick1]

Thanks Vaughany! That vid release was long overdue... lol.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

Big money on larkin came in late today

[The HOFF]

Adding:

5 units on Machida by TKO/KO or Decision at -150 to win 3.333 units.

Is this right? I mean not a typo. I'm reading this as Machida Wins/Not By SUB -150. Where did you find that? Ridiculous odds on that.

[Shagdogy]

-
My point is, that most people are not billionaires, and will gain from knowing a bit more about the risk the player that post actually take,

that is to say, if we all have quite similar bankroll.

You are able to tell how much risk the player is putting in to a play by the number of units they bet. For example, if you follow Vaughany's thread, you know that 10 units is about as big as he'll get (I think, don't wanna speak for you V) for a straight up play. He goes bigger on the Arb's because they're risk free and require a large amount to make the payout worthwhile. But a 10 unit play = big risk. It doesn't matter how much actual money his unit is. If he's a $10/unit guy, then $100 is a big play for him. Whereas a $200/unit guy would consider $2,000 a big play. Either way, each guy's risk is proportionate to their bankroll and what they are used to wagering.

As far as money management, it is common to use somewhere from 2-5% of your bankroll as one unit, and then rank your plays from 1-10 units (10 being the biggest play you'll make). Doing this, your max bet would never exceed 50% of your bankroll and that would only be in rare cases. For the most part, a standard 2-3 unit play would comprise of 10 to 15% of your bankroll. As you increase your bankroll (hopefully), your unit increases, but the rules stay the same. This is a good way to keep you from getting overconfident and taking big losses too quickly by increasing your wagers disproportionately to your bankroll.

[bjpenn85]

Thanks for the answer.

[Squareguy]

You are killing the books over there. I'm going to have to move to Europe if Paddy doesn't open up for US bettors!

[Vaughany]

You are able to tell how much risk the player is putting in to a play by the number of units they bet. For example, if you follow Vaughany's thread, you know that 10 units is about as big as he'll get (I think, don't wanna speak for you V) for a straight up play. He goes bigger on the Arb's because they're risk free and require a large amount to make the payout worthwhile. But a 10 unit play = big risk. It doesn't matter how much actual money his unit is. If he's a $10/unit guy, then $100 is a big play for him. Whereas a $200/unit guy would consider $2,000 a big play. Either way, each guy's risk is proportionate to their bankroll and what they are used to wagering.

As far as money management, it is common to use somewhere from 2-5% of your bankroll as one unit, and then rank your plays from 1-10 units (10 being the biggest play you'll make). Doing this, your max bet would never exceed 50% of your bankroll and that would only be in rare cases. For the most part, a standard 2-3 unit play would comprise of 10 to 15% of your bankroll. As you increase your bankroll (hopefully), your unit increases, but the rules stay the same. This is a good way to keep you from getting overconfident and taking big losses too quickly by increasing your wagers disproportionately to your bankroll.

Spot on

[Vaughany]

Is this right? I mean not a typo. I'm reading this as Machida Wins/Not By SUB -150. Where did you find that? Ridiculous odds on that.

Yep reading it correctly Hoff! Paddy offering that type of bet for GSP fight and Machida fight.

[Fissics]

What are the main books that you are using? Pinnacle, Paddy, and anything else?

[Vaughany]

What are the main books that you are using? Pinnacle, Paddy, and anything else?

Yep Pinnacle, Paddy, Sportbet, Bookmaker, Ladbrokes and Sportingbet are main ones!