[TheIceman]

Dec 31 12:01 AM

DYNAMITE 2009 MMA SUPER FIGHTS

Hidehiko Yoshida vs Satoshi Ishii

My pick is Satoshi Ishii to win

Odds : 1.85 and 1.95

Where : Unibet and betandwin

$1000 to win $850 and $158 to win $150 , combined $1158 to win $1000


If Ishii's jaw isn't made of glass I think he will win this fight . To me only real advantage in this fight for Yoshida is fighting in MMA before with 16 bouts on his record . 5 of his 8 were against fighters who have close to no ground game like Mark Hunt or Tank Abbott . Yoshida is 1-4 in his last 5 , with the only win being over 48 year old kickboxing MMA fighter Maurice Smith who has been submitted around 10 times in his career even at the younger age than 40 + . There is no shame in losing to Mirko and Josh Barnett but the loss to James Thompson and the only 2009 fight loss to Sanae Kikuta make me question his motivation and the age being the factor at this point . He was - 350 favorite going into the fight with Kikuta but his performance was anything but an inspiring one . Missing a telegraphed highkick in the first part of the round 1 resulted in Yoshida laying on his back for the most of the round , showing no effort trying to sweep his opponent . There were around 60 seconds in the 2nd round where already winded Yoshida managed to get on top of Kikuta and land a little bit of ground and pound but nothing serious , he was later forced to give up the position due to Kikuta's several heelhook and kneebar attempts and ended up on the bottom once again . Later Kikuta flattered him out in the 3rd round and took Yoshida's back tho the old man was able to make it to a decision which surprisingly went just 2-1 Kikuta's way , Kikuta wasn't in any danger at any point of the fight .
There have never been so much hype for a debuting MMA fighter and there are a lot of questions which will be answered on the night of the fight . Unlike many olympics wrestlers or judokas who make their debut with close to no MMA training Ishii was able to train full time for a very long period of time with the best camps and trainers you can only ask for .
Not only will Ishii be the 17 younger man in the ring with sharper judo game at this point but he will also have around 25-30 pounds weight advantage over the veteran .
This fight depends on who is able to get the top position because Yoshida hasn't shown me anything that suggests he is able to sweep or submit a tough grappler and in this case physical conditions clearly favor the younger man who has just won olympics gold medal last year . Yoshida did tire rather quickly in his '' recent fights '' , the last one being already close to 1 year ago . The size and strength advantage will have the old man in a lot of trouble unless he lands a magical punch and Ishii's chin isn't as tough as his judo skills .
Yoshida is tough to finish but he is close to the retirement point , most likely outcome for me is Ishii controlling the fight with sweet judo throws from the clinch and being on top of Yoshida for the most part of the fight , tho I wouldn't be surprised if Yoshida gets finished in case he either fights in a GI which should be a big advantage for Ishii or he shows up in the same shape he did in the last 2 fights then Ishii has a shot at finishing the tired warrior in the late 2rd or 3rd round .
To me the only question is Ishii's chin because he is the younger , stronger and sharper version of Yoshida . If Ishii somehow gets knocked out it will be very early because he cant take a punch , later in the fight Yoshida should be too tired dealing with the around 30 lbs larger man . I don't see Yoshida submitting Ishii the way he did to most kickboxers he has faced in his MMA career minus Mirko Crocop . All 8 of Yoshida's wins have been by submission , he has never knocked out an opponent or won a decision .





Hiroyuki Takaya vs Michihiro Omigawa

Great entertainment but not the fight you would want to place your money on unless one of them is atleast + 150 underdog , considering I see - 115 both sides I will just sit back and enjoy a good battle . Omigawa has won very questionable decisions recently and this is the fight he can win by decision .

Hideo Tokoro vs Jong Man Kim

Tokoro is another fighter you wouldn't want to bet on or against , grab the popcorn and enjoy the fight .

Gary Goodridge vs Gegard Mousasi

Can't believe bookmaker has opened this at just - 575 , - 1000 something range is about right , Gary has around 0-5 % shot of winning this one .
- 1100 is good to parlay with something

Melvin Manhoef vs Kazuo Misaki

Very high varience fight , maybe slight value on Manhoef at + 160 but he has fought a lot recently and gave my money away during his fight with Filho ... No bet

Katsuyori Shibata vs Hiroshi Izumi

At those odds no bet , lean on Izumi because he seems to be the bigger and probably stronger man but his debut was the most stupid display of own skillset ever in MMA , to stand with a kickboxer who has serious power - not such a great idea if you haven't thrown a punch in your whole life .


Akihiro Gono vs Hayato Sakurai

Neither has impressed me recently and Sakurai seems to care more about other things than MMA and coming in shape for the fights . At + 200 might be a good idea to throw a bit on Gono tho this fight seems like a lottery , whoever wants it more will win .

Yosuke Nishijima vs Ray Sefo

Neither one is really relevant and there is no real value here betting on Sefo , if anything it could be worth a try to place a small bet on the former japanese boxer at those long odds of + 325 .

Shinya Aoki vs Mizuto Hirota

Really depends what period of time Hirota can keep this fight in standing position . Hirota has to knock Aoki out because he will not win a decision even if he stays on top and shakes off Aoki's submission attempts with the judging system being different than in the US Aoki would be too aggressive from any position on the ground to lose a decision . A single shot on the ground can change the outcome of the fight tho , Hirota is powerful enough to repeat what Hansen and Sakurai did to Aoki . Aoki would have to be atleast - 250 to consider a play , Kawajiri at the same odds seems like a safer bet to me because he is by far a more durable fighter .

Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs Masanori Kanehara

Not really interested in touching Yamamoto at - 425 odds until he proves that he is back after his long injury break . So far it hasn't been great for him with 0:2 record , the last one being a nasty knockout loss in K-1 where he was - 900 favorite . Kanehara however doesn't really pose any threat to Kid Yamamoto , he is well rounded but not great anywhere and this isn't enough to beat someone of Kid's caliber . Yamamoto most likely wins rather easily but I will skip this one .




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Kawajiri vs Yokota fight could turn out like Yokota's fight against Kitaoka just worse because Kawajiri to his strong wrestling has better top control than Kitaoka who was able to take Yokota down 10 times in 15 minutes . Unless Yokota lands something really big and knocks Kawajiri out I don't see a win for him , Kawajiri has strong chin and can take a lot of punishment . Wrestling will be big factor in this one as Yokota will not be able to land a lot in stand up or stuff Kawajiri's takedowns . Decision is the most likely outcome but I wouldn't be surprised if Kawajiri knocked him out or stopped with ground and pound , Yokota is very stiff with his head while striking and this could be just a matter of time when Kawajiri connects big.



http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/4396/parlay2.jpg

Have to take Masato in his retirement fight despite the 0:2 head to head .
Tournament format didn't favor Masato when they've fought last time , Masato took a lot of damage to his legs on the night against Pramuk in 3 rounds then had another tough opponent in Arthur Kyshenko . He won the first round without a lot of trouble against Souwer I believe tho it has been a while since I've watched the whole fight . It was obvious at this point tho that Masato is in big pain and Souwer kept peppering his legs to the point where Masato just couldn't stand anymore and had to retire .
Skillwise overall to me Masato has the edge , Souwer has good kicks and Remy Bonjasky like defense but he isn't aggressive enough . It's a 5 round fight with an extra round if needed , I don't see Souwer taking 3 clear rounds from Masato in his retirement fight . Souwer got absolutely destroyed by Petrosyan in the MAX finals recently and arguably lost to Pramuk in the semis tho the judges decided to add the extra round and give the fight to Souwer .
If needed I wouldn't be surprised the judges ''gave'' the fight to Masato tho I think he will finally get a win over the tough dutchman .
Initially I wanted to make a single bet on Masato at - 105/1.95 but bookie has declined pretty much the whole amount but accepted it in a parlay after dropping the odds to 1.75 . I also have $500 bet pending on Kampmann at - 170 so I might think of buying something back closer to the UFC event in case Masato wins tomorrow .



Dec 31 3:00AM

Souwer vs Masato - Heavyweights - K-1 Rules Apply - Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan

Andy Souwer vs Masato

My pick is Masato to win

Odds : 1.95

Where : expekt

$100 to win $95



Dec 31 3:00 AM

Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan

Ikuhisa Minowa vs Rameau Sokoudjou and Alistair Overeem vs Kazuyuki Fujita

My pick is Rameau Sokoudjou and Alistair Overeem to win

Odds : 1.72 and 1.10

Where : betandwin

Combined odds : 1.89

$442 to win $395




Dec 31 3:00 AM

Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan

Ikuhisa Minowa vs Rameau Sokoudjou

My pick is Rameau Sokoudjou to win

Odds : 1.60

Where : betandwin

$143 to win $85


Again not so much interest in betting on Overeem but they let one place larger wagers in parlays . Odds on Sokoudjou are absolutely off here compared to - 320 at other bookies .
Sokoudjou is a legit fighter and Minowa only beats freak show opponents who are either 7' or 350 + lbs , Sokoudjou doesn't qualify in neither category . At those odds I don't have to think twice who to bet on , tho at - 300 I might have considered skipping it .
Sokoudjou talks big so hopefully he can back it up in the ring . I would surprised if he doesn't finish Minowa within 90 seconds to be honest . A lot of factors going Sokoudjou's way here , first of all he doesn't have to cut weight like he did in the US which has caused problems with the cardio , they don't test just in case he is on something . Minowa himself doesn't have the greatest cardio so this shouldn't be an issue at all in case fight doesn't end early somehow . To me this is an easy decision ... Minowa always takes advantage of his immobile opponents to grab the leg , Sokoudjou is just too strong to fall for this one . Minowa doesn't have the best takedowns and fresh Sokoudjou isn't getting taken down by him . If I was making Sokoudjou's gameplan it would be very simple - don't kick a lot early not to end up on the bottom position somehow in a scramble and rush Minowa with the fists , Minowa just doesn't have the power to make Sokoudjou think twice about bullying him . Minowa can try to pull guard but I don't think it will get him far , Sokoudjou might just jump on him and ground and pound him to a stoppage . To me this one looks like Masvidal vs Kitaoka type fight , one fighter is way too one-dimensional tho atleast Kitaoka can beat legit opponents unlike the man they call Minowaman . Sokoudjou will pound Minowa out unless he was paid off to lose against local warrior , hopefully it's a legit fight then I like my chances .

[TheIceman]

Dec 31 3:00AM

DYNAMITE 2009 MMA

Katsuyori Shibata vs Hiroshi Izumi

My pick is Hiroshi Izumi to win

Odds : + 125

Where : bookmaker

$500 to win $625



Just rewatched few fights and changed Izumi lean to solid bet . Izumi had stupid gameplan against a pro kickboxer with big power in his debut but I've noticed Izumi actually seems to have solid movement in stand up and knows what he is doing plus his chin has looked close to Mark Hunt level . Shibata has no power in his punches and he wont be able to take Izumi down . I think Shibata will get knocked out big time here or finished on the ground , Izumi has top notch judo skills and can throw the lighter Shibata to the ground if he wants to but I see him keeping it standing and land one of those big bombs he was throwing in his debut .

[TheIceman]

Hidehiko Yoshida vs Satoshi Ishii

Very dissapointing loss to take , Ishii being in his first fight has looked nervous in the first round and took a lot of damage in stand up , his chin was tough just like I've thought it would be . First round had to be scored 10-9 for Yoshida .
Second round Ishii gained the confidence and was pressing the action not allowing Yoshida to load up on those looping bombs like he did in the first round . I've thought he was doing really well cutting the ring against a very tired Yoshida but with 40 seconds to go he landed a knee to the ground in the clinch . Yoshida took a lot of time but decided to go on tho they've taken a point away from Ishii for a completely accidental knee . This is definitely the first time to ever happen in MMA as far as I know for a guy to have a point taken away for a 100 % accidental illegal strike without any prior warning . So this round would have to be scored from solid 10-9 Ishii to 9-9 .
Third round was close but Ishii was pressing the action and landing in the clinch , to me Yoshida did close to nothing to win this round , 10-9 Ishii .
End result had to be 28-28 and if not the absolute robbery call of deducting a point from Ishii it should have been 29-28 in his favor . Yoshida ended up winning the UD tho I would love to see how they've scored the rounds , I don't understand how it didn't end in a draw .
Nobody to blame here but myself for not arbing this one with + 270 line on Yoshida and sitting with $400 profit on both ends , very stupid move . Next time I get such a big difference in the line move I am definitely hedging , sucks to learn the hard way . Would never consider making a play on Ishii at anything over - 200 let alone - 320 as the closing line .


Andy Souwer vs Masato

Seriously pissed off bookie didn't take the full $2000 action on Masato at - 105 , absolute steal . Close fight but a deserving victory for Masato , he wasn't going to lose in his retirement fight .


Tatsuya Kawajiri vs Kazunori Yokota
Quote:
Kawajiri vs Yokota fight could turn out like Yokota's fight against Kitaoka just worse because Kawajiri to his strong wrestling has better top control than Kitaoka who was able to take Yokota down 10 times in 15 minutes . Unless Yokota lands something really big and knocks Kawajiri out I don't see a win for him , Kawajiri has strong chin and can take a lot of punishment . Wrestling will be big factor in this one as Yokota will not be able to land a lot in stand up or stuff Kawajiri's takedowns . Decision is the most likely outcome ...
Pretty much exactly what happened there , Kawajiri had no trouble taking Yokota down just like Kitaoka and had much stronger control on the ground than Kitaoka did against Yokota , very bad matchup for Yokota tho he was tough to survive such a domination on the ground vs Crusher .


Gary Goodridge vs Gegard Mousasi

Whoever got - 575 on Mousasi must be the luckiest person , line had to be set at - 5000 , Gary came in to collect some money and pay the bills .


Ikuhisa Minowa vs Rameau Sokoudjou

I like this guy's last comment

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxbig
If you look at the replay, the punch from Minowa only grazed Sokoudjou's nose. I don't see how that could have caused his legs to buckle and him fall over looking KO'd. It looks like a work to me. I mean, Sokoudjou could've ended it on the feet whenever he wanted to do and yet he just stood infront of Minowa doing nothing for 3 minutes until he gets supposedly KO'd by a hook that grazes his nose. Not to mention Gegard Mousasi dropping out. When he was asked about it in the interview he was smiling and laughing when he said he dropped out because of a shoulder injury. So that's pretty clear he didn't want to have to take a dive to let Minowa win.

Will give this fight the benefit of the doubt as Sokoudjou isn't the smartest guy in the ring out there anyway but this whole thing was really weird , starting with Sokoudjou coming out with an alarming taped up knee . He does tape them usually but not heavy like that and knowing Minowa is a leg submissions specialist this is one of the dumbest moves ever .
90 seconds to go , most likely 2-0 rounds and he landed the single strike in the round Sokoudjou magically freezes for 3:30 mins like he got paralyzed . I understand he was gassed but so was Minowa if not worse , all Sokoudjou had to do is clinch with Minowa and fall down on him for the rest 2 mins to win the decision .
Again got way too greedy here with the great - 140/-170 line , should have hedged with + 350 on Minowa and collect the winnings no matter the outcome .


Katsuyori Shibata vs Hiroshi Izumi

Those olympian judo guys never learn ... instead of trying to clinch with people and try to take them down they stand and bang , Omigawa is my hero for using judo close to perfection in MMA and Izumu with Ishii have to look at this guy's recent fights and learn .
Tough first round , if Izumi fought in the first like he did in the 2nd half of the fight he would have probably finished Shibata . Sloppy fight tho a very dominating ending for Izumi awarded him the UD victory .


Don't regret making any play , both Ishii and Sokoudjou odds were over 200 points better than odds at the american bookies , really had to hedge tho and will do next time if there is ever an opportunity like that to avoid frustrating situations like this .


Will update after the UFC 108 , - $1023 so far in this event but 2 parlays pending . Potential + $2260 if Kampmann and Junior Dos Santos win to finish each parlay tho .

Mark Munoz vs Ryan Jensen

Line I want on Mark Munoz is atleast - 220 . Best line available - 340 , no bet .
Munoz is not an elite fighter , Jensen isn't either but the point is Munoz doesn't deserve to be such a big favorite , last judge's vote in the previous fight probably saved Munoz from being cut from the UFC roster . I see Jensen came in a good shape and will try to make it tough for Munoz , 4 out of 5 Jensen's losses have been by submission against top notch BJJ guys like Maia and Leites . Munoz doesn't qualify into this category so his choices are to (T)KO or decision Jensen , which he might be able to do but at this price it's not the most wise decision to place money on him .

NO BET

Prediction : Munoz by decision


Duane Ludwig vs Jim Miller

Wrestling will the deciding factor in this one , Ludwig never had the best takedown defense and at this point game has passed him by . His performance against Lyle Beerbohm wasn't a very inspiring one , I honestly don't understand why UFC brings him in . Miller has strong wrestling and good submissions and control from the top position , his chin is good enough not to get blasted quickly . Ludwig has been in way too many wars , both MMA and especially kickboxing/muay thai , this starts to show on his body . - 450 odds bit too high but still looks like a good choice to put into a parlay , one dimensional striker like Ludwig cant deal with well rounded fighters like Jim Miller in 2010 .

NO BET

Prediction : Jim Miller by submission


John Gunderson vs Rafaello Oliveira

Too many question marks in this one , Oliveira was dissapointing in his UFC debut dropping an UD , Gunderson is making his UFC debut this time .
Not worth my money , both fighters will try to win the fight not to be cut from the UFC which might result in a lot of varience .

NO BET

Prediction : Rafaello Oliveira win


Sam Stout vs Joe Lauzon

Would bet on Joe Lauzon under - 220 but - 270 I rather skip this one , should be a high energy and entertaining fight . Stout is tough but he lacks finishing power , Lauzon is coming back after a long layoff from a bad injury , ring rust and his old injury might be something to consider before placing a bet on him .

NO BET

Prediction : Joe Lauzon by decision






Bought back after the frustrating losses on Ishii and Sokoudjou , need to bounce back first before taking those risks .

Total risk :

Martin Kampmann : $1500 to win $1744

Jacob Volkman : $500 to win $1250


Result :

if Martin Kampmann wins : + $1244

if Jacob Volkman wins : - $250



Still very confident Kampmann takes this fight without a lot of trouble due to his size , by far superior striking , cardio and good enough grappling to neutralize Volkman . Kampmann is - 275 at 5dimes so it might be a good idea to parlay him with Jim Miller at - 450 , pays 6.6 for every 10 .






01/02/10 22:00 ET

UFC 108


Mike Pyle vs Jake Ellenberger

My pick is Jake Ellenberger to win

Odds : - 115

Where : sportsbook

$500 to win $434


Watched most of their fights in the last week , line has moved just slightly to - 140 , probably people still have Jake's first round against Condit in their memory .
Pyle has good submissions but he lacks the wrestling to take Ellenberger down I think . Stand up hasn't looked great for Pyle other than bullying winded Hornbuckle after softening him up from the top position on the ground , other than this fight I've only seen Pyle move very robotic and throw pillow punches .
Ellenberger has dropped several people recently with his powerful striking , this one might look like Pyle's fight against Rory Markham where Pyle is forced to stay too long on his feet against a guy who throws powerful strikes . Markham caught him , dropped and finished with few shots on the ground . I like what I've seen from Ellenberger in his Condit defeat other than gassing in the last round but I could understand this after such a high paced and tiring battle . Pyle himself gasses in several fights I've watched so cardio might not be an issue .
Ellenberger trains with Dan Henderson and Chael Sonnen who are usually in his corner , this guy knows how to wrestle . Pyle trains at Xtreme Couture but I'm not very impressed with his wrestling . IMO if I am right and Ellenberger has better wrestling to keep it on the feet I think he can KO or TKO Pyle , decision isn't out of question either .
Pyle has won 16 out of his 19 by submission , this is the area Ellenberger has to fear , Ellenberger has only been submitted once in 26 fights by Renzo Gracie black belt Delson Heleno who is pretty good on the ground but I like the fact that Ellenberger was able to fight off some good submission attempts from Condit on his last fight .
I think Pyle has to submit Ellenberger in the first round to win the fight , if both are a little bit gassed and sweaty it wont be as easy for Pyle to lock up a submission in the 2nd half of the fight . Hopefully Ellenberger can KO Pyle or atleast be conservative from the top position not to get caught in a triangle .




01/02/10 22:00 ET

UFC 108


Cole Miller vs Dan Lauzon

My pick is Cole Miller to win

Odds : - 150

Where : sportsbook

$500 to win $333



01/02/10 22:00 ET

UFC 108


Dustin Hazelett vs Paul Daley

Will the fight go the distance?

My pick is NO

Odds : - 250

Where : paddypower

$572 to win $229


If Hazelett wins the fight it will be by a submission , if Daley is to win he is going to catch Hazelett on his vulnerable chin with a flurry , either way I don't see this fight going to a decision once out of 3 times which makes this a value bet for me .

[TheIceman]

Martin Kampmann WIN

Jake Ellenberger WIN

Junior Dos Santos WIN

Cole Miller WIN

Dustin Hazelett vs Paul Daley WIN
-----------------------------------------------
5-0 +$3050




Boxing YTD :

MMA YTD : 4-2 +3.2 units

K-1 YTD : 1-0 +0.95 units

Parlays YTD : 2-1 +16.12 units



Will hedge this one , learned the lesson at DREAM event taking two losses I could have avoided .


Sun 1/10 9:40PM

WEC 46 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Arco Arena, Sacramento, California - Versus



Dave Jansen vs Kamal Shalorus

My pick is Kamal Shalorus to win

Odds : + 250 Kamal Shalorus and - 155 Dave Jansen

Where : sportsbook

$300 to win $750 and $465 to win $300


End result :

Kamal Shalorus wins : + $285

Dave Jansen wins : -/+ 0



Didn't think it would move down so much down otherwise there could be a big profit on both sides . Still few question marks about those fighters so I rather be safe than sorry .


Going to try this big one , if I somehow manage to survive today and in the UFN event I might get into a position where I could hedge the 2 next close ones Bader and Kessler .

[illmatick]

gl, gotta support Kamal, trains pretty close to where I live

plan on visiting his gym before his next fight

[squallsquall]

What bookies do you use, Iceman? I recognize Pinnacle from the screens, but apart from that?

Thanks!

[TheIceman]

Originally Posted by squallsquall

What bookies do you use, Iceman? I recognize Pinnacle from the screens, but apart from that?

Thanks!

A lot of european bookies , otherwise 5dimes and sportsbook .

[TheIceman]

Mon 1/11 10:00PM

UFC Fight Night 20 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Patriot Center, Fairfax, Virginia - Spike TV


Tom Lawlor vs Aaron Simpson

My pick is Aaron Simpson to win

Odds : - 250

Where : unibet

$800 to win $320


Bet of the card is Aaron Simpson in - 250 range . Lawlor has guillotine choke chance on a possible takedown counter but that's about it , I doubt Simpson will try to take him down unlike CB Dollaway who jumped right into a guillotine . Simpson has serious power in his hands and this should end in the first half of the fight like Bader's fight on TUF against Lawlor .



Mon 1/11 6:15PM

UFC Fight Night 20


Gerald Harris vs John Salter

My pick is Gerald Harris to win

Odds : - 260

Where : sportsbook

$500 to win $192





Mon 1/11 9:05 PM

UFC Fight Night 20


Amir Sadollah vs Brad Blackburn

My pick is Amir Sadollah to win

Odds : - 135 and - 148

Where : sportsbook and pinnaclesports

$692 to win $500



Sooner or later those short favorites should start winning the fights for me : Ishii blows the fight with uncalled for 1 point deduction and even worse Varner yesterday jumping into a choke with 2-0 rounds lead .
I have big faith in Amir if he can stay in there first 90 seconds withoung getting clocked . This fight could go to distance and Sadollah's pushing style should favor him against someone like Blackburn who relies on counter punching too much and tends to take time off and thats where Amir should score the points with strong kicks and clinch work . Blackburn is a tough guy but he should have lost 2 out of his 3 UFC fights and instead he is coming in here with a 3-0 record .
Like I say , if Amir doesn't get finished right away he should do just fine , Blackburn fades after the first round , most of his 3rd rounds look like Tito Ortiz vs Forrest in their recent fight which isn't a good sign against a guy like Amir . I don't think Amir has a bad chin , actually I think he has a very solid beard so even if Blackburn connects early this wont mean Amir is getting Hazelett'ed .




Mon 1/11 6:15PM

UFC Fight Night 20


Thiago Tavares vs Nik Lentz

My pick is Thiago Tavares to win

Odds : - 215 and - 220

Where : expekt and 5dimes

$654 to win $300


Betting against Tavares here would be just a hope of him gassing badly and quitting because Lentz doesn't have a lot of moves to finish someone like Tavares , on the other hand Tavares might need just a little effort to get on top of Lentz and finishing him . In my opinion Lentz is not a UFC level fighter and Tavares should be in - 300 range , only worry is his layoff.




Mon 1/11 6:15PM

UFC Fight Night 20


Nick Catone vs Jesse Forbes

My pick is Nick Catone to win

Odds : - 205

Where : 5dimes

$512 to win $250

[illmatick]

Lentz looked good against rafaello oliveira, his wrestling should be able to neutralize most of what thiago is going to try and do, I see thiago losing in the same fashion he lost to matt wiman, gl with the rest of your plays

[Bal]

I am also betting on Sadollah and Simpson

[TheIceman]

Shalorus WIN + $285





Both WIN + $820


Varner LOSS - $1000

Simpson WIN + $320

Harris WIN + $192

Sadollah WIN + $500

Catone WIN + $250


Looks like it was my turn to get lucky after few unlucky outcomes , 3 people have won via split decision .

Total WEEK : 7-1 + $1367
--------------------------------------------

Boxing YTD : -

MMA YTD : 9-3 + 8.67 units

K-1 YTD : 1-0 + 0.95 units

Parlays YTD : 4-1 + 24.32 units
--------------------------------------------

Total YTD : 14-4 + 33.94 units



Still pending




Too bad Tavares fight ended as a draw , 9 in , 6 to go

[squallsquall]

Originally Posted by TheIceman

A lot of european bookies , otherwise 5dimes and sportsbook .

Ok, thanks!

[TheIceman]

Sat 1/23 9:50PM

Featherweight 12 rounds - Madison Square Garden, New York, New York - HBO


Yuriorkis Gamboa vs Rogers Mtagwa

My pick is Yuriorkis Gamboa KO/TKO

Odds : - 225

Where : paddypower

$886 to win $390

[Superman_Punch]

Gamboa should win this fight but Rogers has a chin and is tough. Not saying he will win but he might go distance.

[TheIceman]

That didn't like last long just like I've expected . Gamboa schooled him in round and a half .

Boxing YTD : 3-1 + 4.1 units

MMA YTD : 9-3 + 8.67 units

K-1 YTD : 1-0 + 0.95 units

Parlays YTD : 5-1 + 26.32 units
--------------------------------------------

Total YTD : 18-5 + 40.04 units



2 parlays pending





Fri 1/29 10:00PM

Light Heavyweight 12 rounds - Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada

Gabriel Campillo vs Beibut Shumenov

My pick is Beibut Shumenov to win

Odds : + 120

Where : 5dimes

$500 to win $600

A comprehensive analysis by highly-regarded punch stat compiler and analyst CompuBox supports Team Shumenov’s original contention, as well as the contention of the vast majority of fans in attendance, that Beibut Shumenov deserved to win a unanimous 12-round decision against Gabriel Campillo in their August 15, 2009 World Boxing Association (WBA) Light Heavyweight World Championship fight.

Campillo, however, was able to hold on to his WBA World Title by way of a controversial decision that was announced as unanimous but changed the following day to a majority decision (114-113 John Coyle, 113-113 Glenn Feldman, 115-111 Pasquale Procopio) when a scoring error was discovered. The controversy surrounding the scoring has led to their January 29 World Title rematch at The Joint at Hark Rock Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada.

According to CompuBox’s statistical breakdown of Campillo-Shumenov I, Shumenov landed more total punches and at a higher connect percentage (213 of 651 compared to Campillo’s 199 of 672), including a dominating 193-144 edge in power punches. CompuBox’s scoring gave Shumenov the first five rounds in addition to the eighth and ninth (10-8) for a 115-112 advantage.

“We always believed that Beibut won a close decision and we’re happy that the analysis by an independent organization like CompuBox fully supports us,” Chingis Shumenov, Co-Owner of KZ Event Productions said. “Beibut is seeking redemption. We look forward to the rematch and are grateful that the WBA has sanctioned it.”

[illmatick]

Beibut is going to be a large play for me as well, love this play!!

been looking to rewatch their first fight again but can't find a link, have you seen one around?

[robmpink]

good luck

[Busterflywheel]

Looks like your making some great MMA picks..BOL for fight coming up..

[TheIceman]

Fri 1/29 10:00PM

Super featherweight 10 rounds - Hard Rock Hotel and Casino - Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Eloy Perez vs David Rodela

My pick is OVER 9.5 ROUNDS

Odds : - 260

Where : sportsbook

$500 to win $192



Undercard fight from Shumenov bout , neither have shown big KO power in their careers . Big chance for both to show their skills ( I believe it will be broadcasted ) . 10 round fight so I think both will be prepared to go full 10 rounds .

[Busterflywheel]

Nice write-ups...Glad I found this thread...BOL with your fight picks..

[TheIceman]

Sat 1/30 10:00PM

Super Flyweight 12 rounds - Toluca, Mexico - FSN

Angky Angkota vs Jorge Arce

My pick is Arce wins inside distance

Odds : - 195

Where : 5dimes

$487 to win $250



Arce has been in a lot of wars , he is going to retire at the end of 2010 and promises to retire today if he doesn't win the fight . I wasn't able to find any footage of his opponent other than watching his only fight on youtube in blurry quality . He has only boxed twice outside of his home country in 27 bouts , losing once and 18 monthes ago defeating a fighter with 2-1 record , very close 114-113 twice and 115-113 in 12 round fight .
Looking at the competition has he faced to me it seems pretty clear his management team doesn't have high hopes for their man .
He looks like a perfect opponent to take advantage of for the mexican warrior . Angkota was willing to trade punches in the footage I've seen , no great skillset that Arce shoulde be afraid of .
Angkota will be the much smaller man here being 5'4 to Arce's 5'7 , the indonesian is just 2 years younger than Arce who has had 59 fights in his career to Angkota's 27 .
I think Angkota will be overmatched here , which should be clear from the opening round . Even if Angkota has a touch chin ( KOed in round 1 , tho in 2nd fight of his career ) I can see Arce stopping him with body shots , Angkota will get stuck at the ropes a lot with Arce peppering his body . Unless Angkota turns into a top 10 skillset boxer over the night I don't see him doing well standing in front of someone like Arce , you just cant do it unless your name is Vic Darchinyan . 6 monthes ago Arce stopped another asian fighter in the 3rd round , who was same height and had similar record as today's opponent .



Sat 1/30 10:00PM

Strikeforce: Miami - Middleweight 3 rounds - BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise, FL - Showtime

Robbie Lawler vs Melvin Manhoef

My pick is Melvin Manhoef to win

Odds : - 180

Where : 5dimes

$900 to win $500



Some varience here but I definitely like Manhoef under - 200 . The more I look at it the more I think Lawler just doesn't have what it takes to defeat Manhoef at enough percentage of the time not to make it a profitable play.
There is no way he can trade with Manhoef , it will be lights out in no time . He can try going for a takedown but chances are he wont have a lot of success unless he catches Manhoef off balance and manages to drag him to the ground . Even if this happens there is no success guarantee . Manhoef has lost by submission 4 times to 10 times better grapplers than Lawler : Akiyama - top judo throws , slick submissions . Mousasi much better technical striking than Lawler , could afford to stay out of range for a while , good judo , beautiful submission to end the fight . Filho top level grappler was getting blasted in the face before Manhoef got a brainfart. Dong Sik Yoon same category with Akiyama .
Only possible submission I can see Lawler pull off is an armbar but he has to sep it up somehow and every fight starts on the feet . A good way to start a fight if you fight Jake Shields , not so great if you fight top 20 K-1 fighter with MMA gloves . This time Manhoef has worked on his takedown defense a bit with ATT , better than laughing and saying you have no place to train ground game at as he did in the interview before Misaki fight .
A great opportunity for Manhoef to introduce himself to the american fans , a fight he cant afford to lose if he wants to be taken atleast semi-serious as a MMA fighter .




Hedging female fight bet , not worth the risk at such odds , plus Coenen is already higher than the odds of Cyborg in parlay so :100 to win 520 on Marloes Coenen at pinnaclesports

Left pending now : 600 to win + 503 on Cyborg & Nick Diaz
If Marloes Coenen wins - 80 .







Sticking with Arce here , if he doesn't win inside the distance I see him taking a clear decision .
Sylvester taking on a guy who is in as a late replacement , not good news for the new guy .
Pure stats bet , haven't seen either man but one is 16-0 fighting at home and his opponent is 12-6 .
Walker looks in great shape and Nagy not so much , I fancy the old man to toss his younger opponent to the floor and finish him via ground and pound here .

[illmatick]

arce has looked like garbage his last few fights, he can't wait to retire, does seem they have picked the perfect opp for him though, wouldn't suprise me to see the distance of the fight go either way. gl

[brooks85]

Originally Posted by TheIceman

T

Fri 1/29 10:00PM

Light Heavyweight 12 rounds - Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada

Gabriel Campillo vs Beibut Shumenov

My pick is Beibut Shumenov to win

Odds : + 120

Where : 5dimes

$500 to win $600

Good picks, convinced me enough to tail you on beibut guy last night. I dont know nothing about boxing but good to have another bettor around here.

How did beibut win? I just logged on and saw I had an extra 250.

[illmatick]

we got lucky brooks, Gloden boy Promotions did us a solid, friends with Beibut's Family

Beibut got worked over for most of the fight, ran out of steam in about the 5th, fight was won by split decision

[kjh]

Arce ITD

[brooks85]

o geezz, thats not what i wanted to hear but ill take it.

[urge2kill]

What happened in the Eloy/Rodela fight?

[TheIceman]

Perez won UD



Melvin Manhoef LOSS -9u

Beibut Shumenov WIN + 6u

Nick Diaz WIN + 2.5u

Eloy Perez vs David Rodela WIN + 1.92u

Jorge Arce inside WIN + 2.5u

Parlay # 1 WIN + 5.03u

Parlay # 2 WIN + 5.16u

------------------------------------------
Weekend : 6-1 +14.11 units


-------------------------------------------
Boxing YTD : 6-1 + 14.52 units

MMA YTD : 10-4 + 2.17 units

K-1 YTD : 1-0 + 0.95 units

Parlays YTD : 7-1 + 36.51 units
--------------------------------------------

Total YTD : 24-6 + 54.15 units

[TheIceman]

Pending


Sat 2/6 10:35 PM

UFC 109 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas - PPV

Chael Sonnen vs Nate Marquardt

My pick is Nate Marquardt to win

Odds : - 250 and - 275

Where : pinnaclesports and bookmaker

$125 to win $50 and $687 to win $250 = $812 to win $300



If Sonnen line reaches some ridiculous level might buy back with 1u as Marquardt is also still pending in the big parlay .



Sat 2/6 10:20 PM

UFC 109 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas - PPV

Dan Miller vs Demian Maia

My pick is Demian Maia to win

Odds : - 275

Where : bookmaker

$687 to win $250







Probably never going to happen but still got this tied up for the rest of the year


Must fight before 1/1/11 to have action

Manny Pacquiao vs Floyd Mayweather Jr

My pick is Floyd Mayweather Jr to win

Odds : + 113

Where : pinnaclesports

$1000 to win $1130






8 in , 2 canceled , 5 left .

[Bswitz32]

thanks for the picks
bol

[TheIceman]

Both boxing events today , UFC fight tomorrow .

Also tempted to take under 6.5 rounds in Branco fight at + 170 .


Branco even at 43 is in great shape , he was giving Pascal a tough fight few monthes ago in Pascal's backyard . His opponent fought bunch of ''nobody'' opponents and when he fought better competition he got knocked out in rounds : 3 , 4 and 7th twice .



Sat 2/6 8:00PM

Heavyweight 12 rounds - Prudential Center - Newark, New Jersey


Tomasz Adamek vs Jason Estrada

My pick is Tomasz Adamek to win

Odds : - 300

Where : boylesports

$1359 to win $453




Adamek to win by decision is - 150 at several european bookies , I feel they overvalue the fact that Estrada has never been stopped . From the fights I've watched it seems like Estrada fades after half of the fight due to the extra 20-30 lbs he carries .
By the way I've just checked and odds on over 11.5 rounds are - 120 at 5 dimes so - 150 is really off for Adamek to win by decision .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4FvXvrnPhs

To me he doesn't seem like an unTKOable fighter , this was a 10 round bout and he was gassed after the first half , he was on the verge of getting stopped in 10 round , if it was a 12 rounder I am pretty sure he would have trouble staying in the fight in the last 6 minutes .
Even tho not a natural HW Adamek will have reach and height advantage over Estrada who is a blown up HW , like I've said he could easily cut atleast 20 lbs to improve his cardio .
Estrada never had a 12 round bout in his career , while Adamek has had 12 fights that were scheduled for 12 rounds , 3 of them ended up going the full distance .
We have yet to see how big of a fade Estrada could have in the possible extra 6 minutes and Adamek is the type of a boxer that will not let you off the hook once he feels his opponent is hurting .
Adamek will be the home fighter with his residence being Jersey City, New Jersey and the fight taking place in Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey . There will be a lot of polish fans in the crowd and in general people supporting Adamek .
Estrada has solid amateur background but I feel like it doesn't translate very well into professional boxing and the extra weight on his body doesn't make things easier once his gas tank starts getting empty .
He doesn't have a lot of power in his hands and the fact that Adamek has one of the best chins in boxing will make things tough for Estrada . Adamek will be able to pressure him and slowly take the air out of Estrada's lungs which should allow Adamek to take over in the 2nd half of the fight and maybe force a late 10-11 round stoppage , if not I see him taking a clear cut decision for being the more aggressive fighter .

I am more curious to see whether Adamek can force a stoppage or not , odds being + 400 seem like a very good price considering Estrada's cardio issues in the later rounds . I could definitely see referee stop the fight if Adamek pounds on Estrada like Povetkin did in the 10th round . Going to wait for the weigh-in in to see what kind of shape and weight Estrada comes in . Adamek should be in 215-220 range , if Estrada is over 245 it will be a not so good sign for him .

[Busterflywheel]

You should start new thread with all your new picks...Great Job though

[RobbReport]

sick parlay

[TheIceman]

Sat 2/6 11:00 PM EST

UFC 109 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas - PPV

Mike Swick vs Paulo Thiago

My pick is Mike Swick to win

Odds : - 198 and - 180

Where : pinnaclesports

$981 to win $500




Sat 2/6 9:30PM

Lightweight 12 rounds - Arena Monterrey, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico - Showtime

Antonio DeMarco vs Edwin Valero

My pick is Valero wins inside distance

Odds : - 190 and - 200

Where : 5dimes

$975 to win $500



DeMarco isn't ready for a monster like Valero , I would be surprised if DeMarco lasted more than 6-7 rounds but taking a what I feel is a safer option than under 8.5 at - 150 .



This should be it for today , card is big enough as it is .

[TheIceman]

Insurance
1 unit on P.Thiago wins by submission +600 at 5dimes

I think if Swick loses there is a good chance he got caught in a submission or rocked and finished with RNC on the ground .


That should be enough for today , decided to try this small 2nd chance thing for 3 fights today , hopefully it wont be needed .