Eccocide's UFC 107 Picks
So after 2 straight events where I basically broke even, I’m hoping there’s some dolla dolla bills going into my pocket tonight. Should be a great card – prolly the card I’m looking forward to most since UFC 100.
BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez
I always wondered how hard it is to get a borderline psychotic sanctioned to fight in the UFC. Of course I’m speaking of Diego Sanchez – Anytime you combine Stevia, Tony Robbins and Yoga you are asking to be judged as one of the most “unique” individuals out there. But just because he’s different (just like my mom used to call me) doesn’t me the man can’t fight. He has great jiu-jitsu, top-level cardio and drastically improved stand-up from his days on the ultimate fighter. Only problem for Diego is that the man he is facing is pretty much better at all of the categories I just listed. I don’t see many areas where BJ can lose this fight. His boxing is some of the highest level in MMA. He is almost impossible to takedown and even when you do, he has the best jiu-jitsu at 155lb in the world. And lets talk about the cardio myth. BJ hasn’t had any problems with cardio at 155lb. Does he have trouble when he moves up to 170? Sure – that’s because he isn’t forced to train as hard because he needs to keep his weight up. If Diego decides he wants to push the pace and come flying forward in this fight like he did against Guida, he’s going to be eating jab after jab after jab. The best chance Diego has is to pull out all the stops and do the YES cartwheel around the octagon for 5 rounds and hope Cecil Peoples is judging so he will get awarded points for octagon control. I see this one going into the deeper rounds before BJ lands a Hawaiian punch straight on the kisser leading to a TKO stoppage.
My Pick: BJ Penn (-260) 4 units to win 1.5 units
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
One thing I learned in my early days was to never piss of a black man who’s pecks make Pamela Anderson look like an A-cup. Frank Mir has been doing what he does best as of late and that’s run his mouth. Really Frank, what is your strategy in continuously ripping on a big behemoth? Do you really think you are that good after beating down a man on his deathbed followed by getting your face rearranged to look more like a mogul course than anything resembling a human?
Look what smack-talking got you last time Frank!
Listen, I realize that Kongo doesn’t have a ground game. But Frank Mir’s takedown’s aren’t exactly anything to brag about. If this fight does get to the ground, I will be very worried. But I’ll take my chances that Frank’s ego has grown so large that he will actually attempt to stand with Kongo in the first round leading him waking up in the hospital tomorrow wishing he had decided to get a haircut the night before instead of getting into the octagon.
My Pick: Cheick Kongo (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
TJ Grant vs. Kevin Burns
I was able to get TJ Grant early close to the opening line at -115 and I think that’s a steal. Kevin Burns has a lot of the name value due to his 2 fights with Anthony Johnson. But I really don’t see too many advantages that he has in this fight. TJ has an unlimited motor where Burns usually putters his way to the finish line. TJ has the much better ground game and jiu-jitsu. I’d give Kevin the stand-up advantage but I don’t think its that much above what Grant has to offer. I feel that if TJ can weather the early standup storm by Burns, he should easily be able to control the rest of the fight with his pace and grappling.
My Pick: TJ Grant (-115) 2.3 units to win 2 units
Wilson Gouveia vs. Alan Belcher
I also got this line early for Gouveia at -115 and I was pretty happy about myself. But after yesterday’s weigh-ins where Gouveia asked for a 190lb catchweight and Belcher countered with a 195lb catchweight, I don’t exactly want to be involved in this one. So I bought back half on my bet by taking Belcher at EV. These 2 fat ****s really pissed me off by not fighting at the original weight and I am not HAPPY that they won’t get the satisfaction of fighting on the main card. Belcher has been talking all kinds of crap about how he should be a big draw, with his mug on the posters blah blah blah. Dude, in your last 4 fights you have 2 losses, a split decision win and a gift from Kang as he was clearly on his way to victory. I think Gouveia has the better chin, far superior ground game and just more tools to work with. However, this is Gouveia’s second time “missing” weight since dropping down to 185lb and it has shown in his cardio.
My Pick: Wilson Gouveia (-115) 0.8625 units to win 0.75 units (after buy back)
Don’t feel like doing write-ups on the rest of these as they are either parlays, value plays or prop bets so I will just list:
Ricardo Funch (+325) 0.5 units to win 1.625 units
2 Fight Parlay: Fitch/Penn 2.25 units to win 1.55 units
Fitch/Pierce wont go the distance (+168) 0.75 units to win 1.26 units
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Eccocide
. GO TJ!
